当前位置:首页 >> 英语学习 >>

经济学人中英对照6


南亚枭雄:普拉巴卡兰2009-05-27Prabhakaran
南亚枭雄:普拉巴卡兰
May 21st 2009
From The Economist print edition

Velupillai Prabhakaran, commander of the Tamil Tigers, died on May 18t

h, aged 54
韦卢皮莱·普拉巴卡兰,泰米尔猛虎解放组织首领,死于五月十八日,卒年五十四岁





THE body of the young man lay on a scarlet bier. He was in his colonel’s uniform and beret, with white gloves that made his hands seem enormous beside his emaciated body. His face was set in a rictus of death that was somewhat like a smile. But the portly, mustachioed man who stood looking at him, in a short-sleeved white shirt and blue trousers, hands clasped awkwardly in front of him, was not smiling.

这具年轻男尸就躺在猩红色的棺椁里面。他穿着陆军上校的制服,戴着贝雷帽,与憔悴消瘦的躯体相比,双手因为有了白手套的掩护,似乎显得过于肥大。他的面容带着亡故后的张嘴结舌,有点像在微笑。立在边上的那个男人长着大卷曲八字胡,身体已然发福,罩着短袖白T恤,下面是件蓝裤子,双手僵硬地扣在身前,他打量着尸首,却无半点笑容。

Velupillai Prabhakaran always said this was the moment, four years into the war in September 1987, when he gave up any faith in non-violence. The young man before him, Thileepan, had fasted to death to highlight the plight of Sri Lanka’s Tamil minority and their demands for independence. The Sinhalese majority had paid no attention. So Prabhakaran pledged himself and his Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam to a path of unremitting carnage.

韦卢皮莱·普拉巴卡兰总是说,这样的时刻就是他放弃任何非暴力信仰的时刻。1987年9月,战争的硝烟还未散去,都四年了。横尸普氏面前的男子名叫 Thileepan,为引起外界对斯里兰卡少数民族泰米尔人孤苦无援的关注,表明他们要求独立自治的决心,此人绝食而死。占国内人口多数的僧伽罗人却无动于衷。因而普氏发誓,他以及他的泰米尔伊拉姆猛虎解放组织(LTTE,下称“猛虎”)日后定将大开杀戒,踏上漫漫血洗路。

The world had to notice when, in 1996, a truckload of explosives was driven through the gates of the Central Bank in Colombo, killing 90 and injuring more than 1,000. And it had to wake up to Tamil demands when, in 1991 (though Prabhakaran always ducked away from blame for it), India’s former prime minister, Rajiv Gandhi, was blown up by a female bomber who had bent to touch his feet. By the time Prabhakaran was felled by a bullet in his last redoubt, his war had claimed the lives of more than 100,000 Sri Lankans.

1996年,一辆满载炸药的卡车途经科伦坡的中央银行大门时发生爆炸,九十人毙命,千余人受伤。“猛虎”终于引发了国际关注。1991年,印度前总理拉吉夫·甘地在接受一名女子弯腰触脚的礼遇时被其袭击炸死(尽管普氏总是拒绝为此负责)。国际社会终于意识到泰米尔人的权利要求。等到普氏在他最后的藏身之所被一颗神奇的子弹击中时,他的这场战争早已掳去十万斯里兰卡人的身家性命。

And in fact his commitment to violence had been there from the beginning. On his first operation, bunking off school at 17 with his mates, he threw a bomb into a group of soldiers. His first “political” act, in 1975, was to shoot the mayor of Jaffna at point-blank range for betraying the Tamil cause, as he believed. After the founding of the LTTE, in 1976, leaders of rival groups and Tamils too moderate to agree with him were sought out and killed; he signed their death warrants. In person he was stocky, soft-spoken and with a pleasant smile, like a middle-order restaurant manager. But his wife, who first caught his eye by throwing a bucket of coloured water over him at the holi festival, burst into terrified tears when she had done it. And the girls he “cared for” at his special school in Vanni, his embryonic Tamil homeland in the north-east of the island, were trained to strap explosive belts underneath their dresses, a branch of warfare he had more or less invented.

事实上,普氏皈依暴力的路线图要从头算起。十七岁时,他便策划了生命中的第一次军事行动。在与伙伴逃学的途中,他朝一群兵丁扔了颗炸弹。他的“政治”处女作完成于1975年,当时普氏近距离射杀了贾夫纳市的市长,因其背叛他所信仰的泰米尔人(解放)事业。1976年创建“猛虎”后,敌对阵营及泰米尔族的若干领导人因太过温和未能与普氏达成一致便被逐一击杀。他签发了斩首令。普氏其人,体格敦实,言语温软,笑容可掬,看上去像是一家中等规模饭店的经理。但他的妻子———“胡里节”(holi)期间她冲普氏投掷了一桶染了颜色的水之后两人便一见钟情———一旦杀人后便会泪眼婆娑,神色惶急。普氏酝酿的泰米尔人之乡Vanni坐落在岛屿东北方,建有训练专校。那些受他“呵护”的女孩在这里学会了身藏炸弹的技巧。也可说这样的刺杀别动队或多或少乃是他的发明。

He was a shy, coddled child, the son of a land officer. His parents, both pious Hindus, were followers of Mahatma Gandhi and his doctrine of ahimsa, or non-violence. But the books young Prabhakaran read, out on the veranda under the banana tree, were biographies of Alexander the Great and Napoleon. He treasured the Bhagavad Gita not for its spiritual riches but for the passage where Krishna told Arjuna that it was his duty to fight and kill even his relations. His great hero, “a beacon to me”, was not Gandhi but Subhas Chandra Bose, who had tried to drive the British out of India with armed force.

这名深受溺爱的国土管理官员之子儿时曾颇为腼腆。双亲可谓虔诚的印度教教徒,亦是圣雄甘地(Mahatma Gandhi)及其非暴力教义(ahimsa)的追随者。但在香蕉树下的走廊上,年轻的普拉巴卡兰所读之书却是亚历山大大帝与拿破仑的传记。他之所以珍爱《薄伽梵歌》(Bhagavad Gita)并非为了这印度史诗的精神财富,而是单恋奎师那(Krishna)向阿朱那(Arjuna)表明心志的那个章节———奎师那说,抵抗甚至弑亲,他都责无旁贷。普氏心中的大英雄———“我的灯塔”———也并非甘地而是试图将英帝国武力驱逐出印度的苏巴斯·钱德拉·鲍斯(Subhas Chandra Bose)。

In night classes at the Aladi School he reinforced his outrage that Tamils were passed over for civil-service jobs and university places, and were sometimes beaten up in the streets. He practised martial arts, saved money for a revolver, and in 1972 slipped away into the jungle, where he lived for much of the rest of his life.

在Aladi学校温习夜校课程期间,普氏的愤恨渐趋高涨。他想到泰米尔人无缘就任文职亦无法去高校谋得生计,偶尔还会被人按在街头暴打,不平之气便像火上浇油一般。他恶补兵法,为买一只左轮手枪而省吃俭用。1972年,他悄然溜进那块丛林,将自己余生中的大半光阴浑然洒在那儿了。

Curry and Clint Eastwood
咖喱与克林特·伊斯特伍德

As a leader of terrorists he built up an impressive reputation. He waged war for 26 years. At one time, as much as a third of Sri Lanka was under his control. Prabhakaran divided his thousands of Tiger recruits into an army, a navy (with some light boats) and an air force (with flimsy aircraft), and raised money for weapons by extortion, robbery and arm-twisting of the Tamil diaspora. He refused to compromise the cause or make encumbering alliances. When India began to sponsor Tamil groups, he kept clear of them, and when Indian peacekeepers came to Sri Lanka in the 1980s he ended by fighting them.

作为一名恐怖分子头领,普氏树立了赫赫威名。他打了二十六年的战争。曾几何时,斯里兰卡几乎三分之一的土地在他掌控之下。他化整为零,将数千“猛虎”新兵分成海(装配若干轻型舰艇)陆空(带有劣质飞机)三只作战部队,通过绑票、劫掠以及利用海外族人的影响来筹措军费。他拒绝任何可能危及其“光复大业”的妥协,或是那种妨碍性的结盟。当印度开始资助泰米尔反政府武装时,他奉行的是不接触策略;当印度的维和部队在八十年代进驻斯里兰卡时,他便朝对方猛烈开火,再无回旋余地。

No philosophy or ideology guided him, as far as anyone could tell. He did not like abstractions. Nor could he tolerate debate. Despite a peace agreement in 2002 a separate Tamil homeland, with its enemies eliminated, was all he would accept. In Vanni he more or less constructed one, neat and organised as he always was, with thatched huts and coconut groves along dirt roads. There was no power, but the place had its own banks and law courts. The Sinhalese army fenced it in with barbed wire and bombed it. Among the craters were the remains of lush gardens, and lagoons filled with lilies, that might have made the sort of Tamil paradise Prabhakaran carried in his head.

毋庸置疑,普氏的指南针上没有哲学或意识形态的位置。他憎恶抽象的概念,论辩也为他所不喜。尽管2002年,他所能接受的一切是在被分割的泰米尔人之乡与被剿灭的敌人达成媾和。在Vanni,普氏搭建起一个基地,鳞次栉比的小茅屋,沿着泥泞小道铺开的是一片茂密的椰树林。乡村布局井然有序,一如素来整洁光鲜的他那样。此地没有电力供应,但有它自己的银行和法院。僧伽罗人的军队用带刺铁丝网将其围个水泄不通,尔后再大举轰炸。那些弹坑里面埋着昔日繁茂花园的遗骸,淡水湖上则撒满了百合花,那光景兴许倒成了掠过普氏心头的泰米尔人的美好天堂。

Both the Sri Lankan and Indian governments had arrest warrants out for him. He stayed mostly underground where, like some large grub, he was oiled twice a day by his bodyguards and fed on curry and Clint Eastwood movies, in which cops and cowboys shot themselves out of trouble. He had an escape plan, or several. His cadres would kill him, and burn the body; he would squeeze himself into a submarine; he would bite on the cyanide capsule that hung on a black string round his neck.

身为印斯两国政府的要犯,普氏周围可谓是天罗地网。大部分时间他都蜗居在地下,像条巨大的幼虫。在保镖的陪同下,他每天会有两次户外放风活动。他吃的是咖喱饭菜,看的是克林特·伊斯特伍德主演的电影———剧中的警察和牛仔交火时动辄便一顿乱射。他的潜逃计划也许不止一条。手下的骨干或许会杀死他,然后再焚尸;他可能会将自己拧干,然后像枚干瘪的鱼雷那样挤入某艘潜水艇;他还可能冲着栓在脖子上的黑细绳里面的氢化物胶囊咬上一口哩。

His people, confined in the end to a beach in north-eastern Sri Lanka and shelled by the Sinhalese army, could not get away so easily from the mayhem Prabhakaran had drawn them into.

他的子民被僧伽罗人的炮火围困在斯里兰卡东北角的海滩上。这些人,绝难轻易摆脱普拉巴卡兰为他们刻画的炮灰命运。

发表于14:58 | 阅读全文 | 评论 2 | 编辑 | 分享 0韩国前总统卢武铉自杀:盖棺定论?2009-05-27South Korean politics

Death of a leader
领袖之逝
May 23rd 2009 | BONGHA VILLAGE AND SEOUL
From Economist.com

A former president of South Korea, Roh Moo-hyun, jumps off a cliff and kills himself
韩国前总统卢武铉跳崖自杀



THE home of the former South Korean president, Roh Moo-hyun, in the tiny village of Bongha, is surrounded by picturesque wooded hills. In the spring fire swept across the hills, blackening them. At the same time, in April, Mr Roh’s reputation was being tarnished as he admitted to graft. Since then Mr Roh, whose elder brother is in prison after being convicted of bribery, had been expecting prosecutors to bring charges. But rather than face more public humiliation Mr Roh committed suicide on Saturday May 23rd by jumping off a cliff.

韩国前总统卢武铉家位于Bongha的一个小村庄,群山环绕,山上树木茂盛,风景如画。春天,一场大火蔓延,山上一片灰烬。也就在那是,四月,卢武铉承认渎职,一世英名毁于一旦。那是,他的弟弟已被判受贿蹲大狱,而他也在面临着检察官的起诉。但卢武铉并没有选择面对越来越多的公众的指责,而是在5月23日跳崖自尽。

In a note the 62 year old said that he “made the life of too many people difficult”. He requested that his family burn his body and erect a simple grave stone to mark his life. “Isn’t life and death one?” asked the former president. Responding to the news, the justice ministry announced that it would stop the investigation into Mr Roh and his family.

在遗言,这位62岁的老人说“他给许多人带来了麻烦”。他要求家里把他火葬,只立一块简单的墓碑。这位前总统在信中问道,“生和死还有什么区别?”。司法部对此作出反应,宣布将停止调查卢武铉及其家庭。

Corruption scandals have haunted every South Korean president. The children of Kim Dae-jung and Kim Young-sam went to jail for graft. Two former presidents, Chun Doo-hwan and Roh Tae-woo, went to prison after it was found they had solicited hundreds of millions of dollars from the country’s biggest business groups.

贪污丑闻困扰着每位韩国总统。金大中总统和金泳三总统(韩国庆尚南道人,第14任韩国总统)的子女因渎职入狱。前总统前总统全斗焕(Chun Doo-hwan)和卢泰愚(Roh Tae-woo)在被查出向韩国几个最大企业集团索要数百万美元而入狱。

Mr Roh was thought to be different. He had campaigned all his political life against corruption. When he left office at the end of his five-year presidential term last year, he went back to his home village, enhancing his reputation as a man of the people.

在公众眼中,卢武铉更特殊,以为他在政治生涯中一贯反对腐败。在五年任期结束时,他于去年离职,回到家乡,这给他的平民形象更添光彩。

The son of poor farmers, Mr Roh had studied for the bar and then become a practising lawyer, becoming known as a people’s champion after defending students who had been arrested for protesting against Chun Doo-hwan, a dictatorial leader. Mr Roh gave up his law practice for politics in the mid-1980s, serving in the National Assembly, where he campaigned against corruption.

生于一个贫困的农民家庭,卢武铉学习法律,后来成为一名实习律师,在成功为为抗议当时的独裁总统全斗焕而被捕的学生辩护后,声名远扬,被誉为人民斗士。在19世纪90年代,卢武铉放弃法律生涯,从政,在国民大会中发起了反腐败运动。

That caught the attention of South Korea’s best known political figure, Kim Dae-jung. In 1997 Mr Roh organised Mr Kim’s successful presidential campaign. Five years later, Mr Roh surprised perhaps even himself in the race to be president by defeating the favoured establishment candidate, a former Supreme Court chief justice, Lee Hoi-chong. He did so by appealing to the modest aspirations of the poor, middle class and university students.

他因此引起了当时韩国最知名政治人物金大中的注意。1997年,卢武铉成功组织金大中参选总统活动。五年后,甚至出乎己料的,卢武铉打败呼声很高的总统候选人,前最高法院大法官李惠昌,当选总统。他的法宝就是在竞选中,他响应了穷苦人、中产阶级和大学生的诉求。

His term as president was tumultuous. The business community saw him as a leftist maverick intent on redistributing wealth by imposing progressive taxes. At one point he was impeached, accused of corruption, although he was not convicted.

他的总统任期是极不平静的。商界把他看做是左派,标新立异,企图通过征收累进税重新分配财富。他曾一度以为被指控腐败而遭到弹劾,尽管指控未成立。

Mr Roh, troubled by abuse of the highest office by his predecessors, sought to institute more checks and balances on the president and more forms of oversight. He continued the “Sunshine Policy” of Kim Dae-jung, which called for engagement of North Korea. He sought to deepen social, political and economic contacts with Pyongyang, the northern capital, to the disquiet of Washington. Meetings with the American leader were never relaxed, and although a free-trade agreement was signed between the two countries, and despite the presence of many American troops in South Korea, the alliance grew testy. In October 2007 Mr Roh went to Pyongyang, against the advice of George Bush’s White House. North Korea had exploded a nuclear bomb in 2006 and Washington did not want its ally shaking hands or signing agreements with Kim Jong Il.

前任总统们滥用职权给卢武铉带来了困扰,他试图建立更多的复查和平衡总统权利机制和更多的监督。他继续金大中的“阳光政策”,与朝鲜开展交往。他努力加强与朝鲜首都平壤在社会、政治和经济方面的接触,这让美国很不安。那是,韩国与美国领导人的会见总是很紧张,尽管两国签订了自由贸易协定,且美国在韩国有大量驻军,两国间的联盟关系仍充满变数。2007年10月,卢武铉不顾美国总统布什的意见,访问平壤。因为朝鲜已经在2006年试爆一颗原子弹,美国不希望其盟友与金正日握手言和或签署什么协议。

Mr Roh’s efforts while in office to redistribute wealth were reversed by his successor, Lee Myung-bak, a former boss of the Hyundai Group. Mr Lee has also cooled relations with North Korea. South Korean tourist groups no longer travel across the heavily armed inter-Korean border. The future of the Kaesong Industrial Complex in North Korea, a joint venture between southern capital and northern labour, is in doubt following a series of capricious demands by Pyongyang. North Korea has said it will not return to six-party talks on ending its nuclear-weapons programme.

卢武铉在任期间推行的财富再分配政策被其继任者,现代前领导人李明博废止。李明博也冷却了与朝鲜的关系。也不再有韩国的旅游团扩过重兵把守的南北韩边界。因为朝方要求变幻无常,由韩国提高资本,朝鲜提供劳动力合作成立的位于朝鲜境内的开城工业园前景堪忧。朝方已表示将不会就终止其核武器计划重返六方会谈。

In his retirement Mr Roh criticised his successor’s policies towards North Korea. At his village he began to reclaim some of his former popularity. His home became popular among tourists and the former president would often greet holiday-makers at his front gate. But in April, on his website under the heading, “I Apologise”, Mr Roh said that he had requested, received and used money from a businessman. He said that he had a “debt to repay”. Mr Roh may have accepted at least $6m and numerous gifts through family members and former aides. In time his reputation may recover somewhat, but locals are unimpressed. “Before this incident I thought he was a clean president and I respected him. I have changed my mind”, says Park Song-deuk, a resident of Mr Roh’s village.

退休后,卢武铉曾批判过他的继任者的对朝政策。在家乡小村里,他回复了一些先前的荣誉。他的家乡成了旅游胜地,这位前总统经常在家门前欢迎前来度假的人们。但是在4月份,他在其网站上发布一条消息,标题为“道歉”。他说:“他曾想一名商人索要并接受和使用钱财”,他说他“有债要还”。卢武铉可能默认通过其家人和助手至少收受了600万美元现金和大量的礼品。通过此举,他可能回复了一些名声,但是同乡们并不买账。卢武铉家乡村里的一位村民表示“在此事件前,我认为他是位廉洁的总统,我尊敬他,现在我不那么人为了”。

发表于14:55 | 阅读全文 | 评论 0 | 编辑 | 分享 0石油价格:金融危机下石油巨头趁火打劫2009-05-26The oil price

Bust and boom
萧条与繁荣
May 22nd 2009
From Economist.com

The price of oil has leapt to nearly $62 a barrel. Another spike may be on the way
石油价格已升至每桶近62美元,可能还会继续飙升。



RISING oil prices, believes Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, may soon “take the wheels off an already derailed world economy”. On the face of things, this concern is absurd. The plunge of $115 in the price of oil from its peak last July to its nadir in December was the most precipitous the world has ever seen. Demand for oil is still falling, as the world economy atrophies. Rumours abound of traders hiring tankers to store their excess oil. Rich countries’ stocks cover 62 days’ consumption, the most since 1993 (see chart 1). The average over the past five years has been 52 days’ worth.
沙特阿拉伯石油部长阿里.纳伊米认为,上涨的石油价格可能很快使已经脱轨的世界经济之车又失去轮子。乍一看,这种担忧很荒谬。去年,油价经历了最为大幅的下跌,从去年7月每桶115美元的峰值骤跌至12月的最低点。世界经济在萎缩,对石油的需求仍在下降。盛传石油交易商租用油轮储藏过剩石油。富国的石油储备可供62天的消费,创1993年以来最高水平。(见图1)。而过去5年的平均水平是52天。

Nor are oil firms pumping nearly as much as they could. OPEC has announced three separate rounds of production cuts since September in a bid to steady prices. In all, it has vowed to trim its output by 4.2m barrels a day (b/d). That leaves them with as much as 6m b/d of spare capacity. Despite this growing glut, however, the price of oil has been rising steadily in recent weeks (see chart 2). On Wednesday May 20th it closed above $60 a barrel for the first time in more than six months. That marks an increase of more than 75% since February. The price of futures contracts suggests that energy traders see the price rising higher still in the coming months and years. (During the day on Friday it appeared to be nearing $62 a barrel.)
石油公司也不是尽其所能地开采石油。自9月以来,石油输出国组织(OPEC)已宣布3轮减产,以求平稳油价。 OPEC共计承诺每天减少420万桶的产量。这使得石油输出国每天剩余生产能力达600万桶。尽管供给过剩,但近几周油价却稳步上升(见表2)。5月20 日(星期三),石油价格升至每桶60美元,创 6个月以来最高;标志着自2月以来,上涨超过75%。而期货价格下跌表明,能源交易商认为在未来几个月或几年内,石油价格仍将上升。(周五,石油价格似逼近每桶62美元)

The explanation is simple. Oilmen are worried because they believe that many of the factors behind the record-breaking ascent last year remain in place. Much of the world’s “easy” oil has already been extracted, or is in the hands of nationalist governments that will not allow foreigners to exploit it. That leaves firms to hunt for new reserves in ever more inhospitable and inaccessible places, such as the deep waters off Africa or the frozen oceans of the Arctic. Such fields take a long time and a lot of expensive technology to develop. Worse, new discoveries tend to be smaller than in the past and to run dry faster.
理由显而易见。石油商忧心忡忡,认为去年导致石油价格破记录攀升的很多因素依然存在。全球大部分好开采的石油或已被开采,或被掌控在国家主义政府的手中,不允许外国公司开采。所以石油公司不得不到诸如非洲的深水水域和北极冰冻的海洋等更不好客、更加艰苦的地区探寻新的储备。而在这些地方开采石油耗费的时间更长,需要运用很多昂贵的技术。更糟的是,新探明的储量往往比以前更小,也更快开采完。

So oil firms must work doubly hard to replace declining fields and to increase output. Yet the oil industry is short of equipment and manpower, thanks to underinvestment in the 1980s and 1990s, when prices were low. As soon as the world economy starts growing again, the theory runs, demand for oil will once again outstrip the industry’s ability to supply it. In other words, the global recession has only interrupted the “supercycle” of which many analysts used to speak, during which the normal boom-and-bust cycle of oil and other commodities would give way to a protracted period of high prices, as ever-growing demand from emerging markets swallowed everything the extractive industries could produce.
所以石油公司必须加倍努力以弥补油田产量下降的不足,提高产出。但是石油业又缺少设备和人力,这是因为上世纪八、九十年代石油价格偏低时,对石油业的投资不足造成的。根据相关理论,当世界经济重新开始增长时,对石油的需求将再次超过石油业的供给能力。换言之,全球衰退只是打断了很多分析师所说的“超级循环周期”。在这循环中,普通的关于石油和其他大宗商品的繁荣-萧条循环周期会让步于长时间的高价位,因为新兴市场始终增长的需求消化了开采业所能开采的所有产品。

Oil bosses, OPEC ministers and anxious bankers all agree on what is needed to prevent this scenario becoming reality: lavish investment in the development of new fields and in exploration. Yet the reverse is happening. The oil industry is cutting its spending, bringing fewer new fields into production and exploring less. The International Energy Agency reckons that overall investment will drop by 15-20% this year.
石油业老总、OPEC 部长们和迫切的银行家们对于应该如何防范这一现象的发生达成了共识:要在勘探和开采新油田上投入巨资。然而事与愿违。石油业正在减少开支,开采更少的新油田,降低开采量。国际能源署认为,今年的总投资将会减少15-20%。

In theory, this should not be happening. Big Western oil firms (“majors” in the industry jargon) claim that they continue to invest steadily throughout the cycle, irrespective of gyrations in price. Big fields, they argue, can take a decade or more to develop, and may then produce oil or gas for several decades more. The price of oil at the time the investment is approved is irrelevant; the important thing is to make sure projects will be profitable across a range of possible future prices. If anything, given that most oilmen expect prices to rise in the medium term, you would expect them to be increasing their investment, to capitalise on the good times to come. Nonetheless, the extreme volatility of prices over the past year must have made big firms more cautious about future investments.
理论上而言,上述现象不应发生。西方大型石油公司(用行话讲是“巨头”)声称,不管石油价格如何波动,仍将在循环周期内继续稳定投资。他们称,大油田需要 10年或更长的时间来开采,而可能产出的油气可供几十年之需。批准投资时的油价并不重要,重要的是在考虑价格波动因素之后,投资的项目是否依然能盈利。若真是这样的话,因为多数石油商期望油价在中期上升,所以你可以指望他们增加投资,为美好的前景注资。尽管如此,过去一年中石油价格极度动荡,必然导致大公司对未来投资更为谨慎。

Then there are the state-owned firms in oil-soaked countries. These companies control the overwhelming majority of the world’s oil. The better managed and funded of them plan to continue investing despite the downturn. Saudi Aramco, the world’s biggest oil producer, recently completed a five-year scheme to expand its production capacity from 10m b/d to 12.5m b/d, at a cost of $70 billion. But in Russia, the world’s second-biggest oil producer, output is falling largely because private capital has been scared off by a series of expropriations, while the state starves the firms it controls of sufficient cash for investment. And most oil-rich states, naturally enough, are happy to see the price rise. Many have become used to bumper revenues in recent years and have struggled to balance their budgets since the price slumped last year.
盛产油国的国有公司控制着世界上大部分的石油。其中经营较好,资金充足的公司在经济下滑的时候计划继续投资。全球最大的石油生产商,沙特阿美公司近来完成了的一个5年计划,将投入700亿美元,使其生产能力从1000万桶/每天提高到1250万桶/每天。但在全球第二大石油生产国俄罗斯,私有资本被一系列征收而吓跑,石油产出大幅下跌。国家让公司挨饿,手上却握着充足的现金。很自然,多数石油丰富的国家都乐于看到油价上涨。很多国家已经习惯近年来收入飙升,而自从去年油价下跌后,已开始挣扎着要平衡预算了。

Falling costs within the industry will offset the impact of falling investment budgets to some extent. BP argues its slight cut in investment does not really represent a reduction, thanks to deflation. Yet many constraints on expansion remain. For one thing, the world still does not have as many experienced petroleum engineers and geologists as it needs, says Iain Manson of Korn/Ferry, a recruiting firm. He expects it to take a decade or more to overcome the shortage. Meanwhile, he says, wages in the oil industry are not falling by nearly as much as other costs.
石油业成本下降将会从某种程度上抵消投资下降的影响。英国石油公司(BP)声辩,考虑到通货紧缩,其小幅减少投资并不代表真正的减资。但还存在很多约束扩张的因素。光辉国际(Korn /Ferry,招聘公司)的艾恩.曼森认为,其中一个因素就是世界仍缺乏经验丰富的石油工程师和地质学家。他预期填补这一空缺还需要10年或更长的时间。同时,石油业的工资却不像其它成本那样下降得多。

Worse, there is little sign that governments are willing to grant oil companies easier access to the most promising territory for exploration. Iraq’s plans to sign big new contracts with foreign firms are years behind schedule, as is its new oil law. American sanctions continue to impede investment in Iran. The Nigerian government has been unable to quell the insurgency in the Niger delta, making it difficult for oil firms to operate there. Even in America, despite years of debate, most coastal waters and much of Alaska remain off-limits to drilling.
更糟的是,鲜有迹象表明政府愿意给石油公司提供便利,帮助他们开采更有前景的区域。伊拉克本计划与外国公司签署新的大合同,但现在落后于计划几年,正如伊的新石油法一样。美国的制裁继续妨碍在伊朗的投资。尼日利亚政府不能平息尼日尔三角洲的***,使得石油公司很难在当地作业。甚至在美国,尽管争论了多年,但多数沿海水域以及阿拉斯加沿岸仍然禁止钻井。

So when demand begins to revive, a sharp rise in prices is inevitable. That does not mean that a price spike is just around the corner, however. The speed with which it arrives will depend on the strength of the global recovery. For the moment, global consumption of oil continues to fall, despite the slight brightening of the economic outlook. At the recent OPEC powwow Mr al-Naimi, the Saudi oil minister, argued that a low oil price always sowed the seeds of a future price rise, since it led to underinvestment. The only question this time is how quickly the strain will emerge.
因此,当需求开始复苏时,价格将不可避免地迅速飙升。但这并不意味着石油价格马上就会上扬。至于油价以多块的速度上涨,将取决于全球复苏的力度。当前,尽管经济前景出现些许光明,全球石油消费却继续下滑。今日在OPEC会议上,沙特石油部长纳伊米认为,低油价会导致投资不足,从而为将来油价上涨播下种子。目前,唯一的问题是,这种投资紧张的状况多快会显现出来。

发表于14:30 | 阅读全文 | 评论 1 | 编辑 | 分享 0懦弱的英国政治家2009-05-26Bagehot
白芝浩

There won’t be blood
血腥不再
May 21st 2009
From The Economist print edition

At a time of crisis, why are Britain’s politicians so spineless?
危急时刻,为何英国政治家如此懦弱?

Illustration by Steve O'Brien


WESTMINSTER loves the language of gore. People talk of “back-stabbings” and “assassins”; of electoral “massacres”; of paths to power “littered with corpses” and of “bloodbaths” if the powerful are crossed. In this sanguinary lexicon MPs are accounted “brave” and “heroic” for drafting a motion that calls for a parliamentary official to resign, or for writing newspaper articles that are codedly critical of their leaders.

英国议会喜欢血腥的语言。如果权势交锋,人们会说着“暗箭伤人”和“暗杀”;或者选举“大屠杀”;权利之路上“横尸遍野”还有“喋血”这些词。在这种血腥的词语中,议员们认为提议要求议会的官员辞职或者写对他们的领导人的委婉批评的文章是“大胆的”与“英勇的”。

They aren’t. It is brave to attend a protest rally in Burma. It is brave to be an independent journalist in Russia. It is brave to be a human-rights monitor in Syria. In Britain heads roll or are impaled on spikes only metaphorically. Only ink actually gets spilt: there will not be blood. The costs of sticking out a neck are pifflingly low. Ordinary Britons might well wonder why in these febrile(发热的) times so few politicians, whether commanders or foot soldiers, are willing to make a stand.

但他们并不大胆英勇。在缅甸参加反抗集会是勇敢的。在俄国做一个独立的新闻记者是勇敢的。在叙利亚当个人权纠察员是勇敢的。在英国,比喻头头们要么转动尖状物,要么被钉在那上面。实际上只有墨水会溅出来:不再血溅。想出头的成本是相当低的。普通的英国人很可能会疑惑:在这些发热的时刻为什么那么少的政治家愿意表明一种立场,不管是指挥官还是小兵。

Consider the three imbroglios that have paralysed politics. First, the fate of the soon to be ex-speaker, Michael Martin. On May 11th he rebuked two MPs who said things he didn’t like; attempting, on May 18th, to cling to his canopied chair, he seemed mumblingly ignorant of the procedures he is supposed to oversee. After his failings on MPs’ expenses (see article), it was painfully clear that he had to go. And on May 19th Mr Martin announced that he would. Yet only 23 MPs were “brave” enough to sign the “no confidence” motion that exhorted him to.

三个总错复杂的局面被认为是使政治瘫痪的原因。第一,就快成为前任发言人的迈克尔?马丁的命运。5月11日,他指责了两个说了他不喜欢的事情的议员;5月 18日,又试图紧占着他的位置,看似他无意无视应该监督的程序。在他在议员开支上犯的一些差错之后,痛苦的清楚知道他不得不下台了。5月19日,马丁先生宣布他将会辞职。也仅有23位议员足够“大胆”地对劝说他这一“没有信任”的提议示意。

In fact, some of the reasons offered by those who backed the speaker had merit. Mr Martin did not force those implicated in the expenses debacle to submit dodgy claims. Why should he be sacrificed to camouflage the guilt of others?

实际上,一些支持发言人的人提出的某些理由也有可取之处。马丁先生并没有破那些牵涉开支崩溃的人们屈服于冒险的要求。为什么他就该因为隐藏他人的过错而牺牲呢?

Quite so: others should plainly go too. Some MPs worked the expenses system too disreputably to keep their seats or, in some cases, their ministerial jobs or places on the Conservative front bench. Hazel Blears, the communities secretary, who wrote a belated cheque for the amount of capital-gains tax she didn’t pay when selling what was once, for expenses purposes, her “second home”, is not the only cabinet member in this category. Those top Tories who made lucrative second-home claims on properties in spitting distance of their first homes are similarly bespattered.

的确如此:其他人也应该明白地离开。一些操纵开支系统的议员们因够声名狼藉,或者在一些事情上,因他们的部门指责和地位在保守派议会前座才保住他们的位置。社团秘书长Hazel Blears开了一张迟到的支票,是一笔她没有支付资本收益税的款,而出售过程中就该支付的费用,至于开支的用途,她的“别居”在这类别中并不是唯一的内阁成员。这些上头的保守党,在别居上获利最多,在他们第一个家距离很近的财产申诉上也同样地被溅污。 【不太理解这里的second-home意思,请教高手指点】

Yet, so far, a pair of the most disgraced Labour MPs have been suspended by their parliamentary party and one disposable junior minister has stepped down; on the Tory side, David Cameron jettisoned an aide, and a few backbenchers who made baronial expenses claims have said they will not stand again. Some have apologised and, like Ms Blears, brandished penitential cheques. But otherwise Gordon Brown and Mr Cameron have hidden behind scrutiny panels and regulatory reforms—classic bureaucratic responses to an essentially moral problem. Mr Brown vowed to prevent anyone who had “defied the rules” from seeking re-election, and called the antics of Ms Blears and others “unacceptable”. But neither he nor Mr Cameron has employed the obvious remedy: to sack the egregious offenders and urge specific deselections, or impose them on reluctant constituencies if necessary. And although some activists are calling for a cull, few MPs, even among the clean ones, have joined them.

不过,目前,一对最不光彩的工党议员已经被他们的议会党怀疑,一个临时的年轻部长已经辞职。在保守党这边,大卫?卡梅伦丢掉了一个副手,少数做了铺张花销的申诉的后座议员说他们将不会再站出来。有些人道了歉,比如Ms Blears,开了支票挥霍并感后悔。但是,除此之外,戈登布朗和卡梅隆先生已经藏于检查小组的背后并监管者改革——只给根本的道德问题的一个陈旧的官腔答复。布朗先生发誓防止任何一个违反规章制度的人再次企图重新选举,并称Ms Blears女士和其他人的那种愚昧无知之举是“不能接受的”。不过,他和卡梅隆先生都没有采取明显的补救方法:解雇坏透的违规者,并极力主张明确的免职,或者如果有必要就迫使他们到不情愿的选区去。尽管一些激进分子要求挑选出某些议员,甚至一些清白的议员,加入他们。

So to the final intrigue—the revived murmurs among Labour MPs about ditching Mr Brown himself. Before he became prime minister in 2007, few raised a squeal of protest; since then, some have been grumbling almost constantly. The arguments for and against installing another leader voiced during last summer’s aborted mutiny are again doing the rounds. Again MPs lament Mr Brown’s charmlessness and Labour’s likely electoral rout. Again they meekly look to the cabinet to lead a coup.

那么阴谋的结果就是——在工党议员中关于摆脱布朗先生的小声抱怨再次显现现。2007年,在他成为首相之前,很少有人发出尖锐的反对声;其后,一些人几乎不断的发牢骚。在上一个夏天兵变未遂的期间发生的争论,是关于赞成还是反对使另一个领导人上任,再一次出现了。再者,议员们为布朗先生的毫无魅力可言以及工党选举很可能溃败感到悲哀。还有就是他们软弱的想依靠内阁采取意外而成功的行动。

A time to cull
剔除的时刻到了

These different instances of collective timidity have some common explanations. In each case “boldness” has been inhibited by loyalty to friends, qualms about ruining careers and concern about constitutional niceties (it has been one of those weeks when commentators sagely bandy about medieval dates and precedents hastily garnered from Wikipedia).

这些集中了胆小的例子有一些共同的解释理由。每一个事例中的“冒失”都是对朋友的忠诚,对事业破坏的怀疑以及对体制上完善的关注所不容的(评论员明智的摆布从维基百科收集来的中世纪的日期和先例已经是数周的时间了。这里怎么读都别扭 )

The main explanation, however, is politicians’ self-interest. Backbenchers fear the ghoulish tortures of whips and the lost chance of preferment that rudeness about the prime minister might incur. Some fear that speaking out about the need for expenses-related sackings could set off a wave of retribution that could eventually engulf them too. The party leaders are stalling, reluctant to wield their metaphorical axes until they are sure where the chopping would end. Mr Brown may worry that punishing some MPs will make him still less loved among the rest.

然而,主要的理由是政治家的自身利益。后座议员害怕残忍的鞭打刑讯和失去关于首相可能招致粗蛮的表现机会。一些人害怕说出需要相关开支证据,可能会引起应得的惩罚风波,最后也把他们全都吞噬完。党派的领导人在拖延,不愿意运用他们隐喻般的轴,除非他们确信哪里闲言碎语已经消失。布朗先生可能会担心惩罚一些议员也不会使他在其他人中得到多一点的爱戴。

Unfortunately, the politicians’ self-interest is unenlightened and myopic. With so little life left in the government, the cost to the careers of Labour mutineers would be nugatory; indeed, their stature might be enhanced if the plot came off. The confrontation between Mr Brown and the malcontents is less like a gunslingers’ deadly stand-off than the Monty Python sketch in which two men slap each other with fish. Meanwhile, implementing or supporting tough discipline for the most extravagant expenses artists might indeed lead to awkwardness and perhaps the odd by-election. But through their hesitancy the big parties have been tainted more than they need have been by the chancers they harbour. And they have left a space that insurgent parties and anti-sleaze independents are moving into.

不幸的是,政治家的自身利益并没有远见也不着眼当前。能呆在政府里的时间也就只有那么点了,工党哗变者的事业成本没有多少价值;事实上,如果他们密谋成功,他们的形象有可能提升。布朗先生与不满者之间的对峙比起Monty Python有两个人鱼互相拍打的素描画,更像一个枪手要保持致命的距离。同时,对大多数铺张花销的艺术家所作的贯彻的或者支撑的严格处罚实际上可能会变得不灵活,也许会是临时的递补选举。但是尽管他们的犹豫不决,这最大的党派已经被浑浊得超过了他们所想的,。。。。。。。。。他们已留了一个空位,叛乱党派和反。。。的独立者正往那移动。(这里不知道怎么翻译才好,请高手指教)

It is hard to avoid the conclusion that too many politicians are immobilised by a mix of inertia and spinelessness. Obstacles that are actually puny to them look Himalayan. To be snubbed in a parliamentary canteen seems as daunting as being put against a bullet-dented wall. Like many cowards, alas, they risk bringing on the fate they most fear.

太多政治家由于惰性和懦弱的混合性格而懒于移动,这样的结论是很难避免的。障碍物对他们看喜马拉雅山来说,确实是微不足道的。在议会的食堂里不被理睬看起来就和把人处于满是子弹凹坑的墙壁一样吓人。就像许多胆小鬼,他们冒险与他们最怕的命运一搏。

b50c5e4d

发表于14:21 | 阅读全文 | 评论 1 | 编辑 | 分享 0股市:牛顾其尾2009-05-25Buttonwood
梧桐树专栏

When bulls chase their tails
牛顾其尾

May 21st 2009
From The Economist print edition

The feedback loops that sustained the bull market can work in reverse to devastating effect
推动牛市的反馈循环,其反向运作将带来破坏性影响



BULL markets are about more than just rising prices. They create their own momentum, not to mention their own intellectual rationale (remember the “new era” talk of the late 1990s). When bull markets stop, those effects tend very quickly to go into reverse. The greater the excesses of the boom, the longer and deeper the reaction is likely to be.

牛市不仅仅是股指上升。他也为自己提供动力,更不必说他们自己的知识理论(20世纪90年代的“新时代”宣言)。当牛市不再,这些影响迅速反向作用。繁荣时泡沫越大,其反作用也将会更深更长。

The best known of these feedback loops is the use of borrowed money to buy assets. Rising prices make banks more willing to lend, creating more demand for the assets in question, pushing up prices even further and thereby appearing to ratify the original lending decisions of the banks. When markets fall this leverage works the other way, as could be seen when investors offloaded assets at fire-sale prices last year.

反馈循环最为人所熟知的运用乃是借钱买资产。上涨的股价使银行更愿意出借资金,催生更多对这些资产的需求,进一步推高资产价格,而这些似乎验证了银行起初借贷决定的正确性。而当熊市时,杠杆反向作用,就像去年投资者以跳楼价抛售资产。

There are many other positive-feedback processes. Take share buy-backs, for instance. Companies used their cash (or borrowed money) to reduce their share capital. Markets might have treated this as evidence of a lack of imagination, or a paucity of profitable projects. Instead, they saw it as evidence that the managers were focusing on “shareholder value” and boosting earnings per share, however ephemeral that might have been.

还有许多正向的反馈机制。以股票回购为例,公司动用其现金(或借款)以缩减股本。市场本应将其认作公司缺乏野心或是盈利项目的证据。然而,他们却将其视为经理层关注“股东价值”并推高每股收益的证据,而忽视其短暂的事实。

By shrinking the supply of shares in the market, the buy-back splurge played its own part in prolonging the bull market. In America, Smithers & Co, a consultancy, says that net corporate buying of shares peaked at an annualised rate of around $1 trillion in late 2007. Companies were buying far more of their own shares than anyone else did. But the buying spree was unsustainable. Smithers calculates that American-owned companies were paying out some 70% of their profits at the peak, if you include dividends and buy-backs. They have since slashed dividends and will have to start issuing shares as well. Instead of borrowing money to pay back shareholders, companies now need to raise equity to pay back creditors.

通过减少流通中股票供给,回购的挥霍行为也使自己成为了延长牛市的一部分。史密瑟斯咨询公司报告说,2007年末美国公司净回购股票数折合成年利率后,达到了大约1万亿美元的峰值。公司自购的股份要远远多于其他人购买的。但此种购买把戏确实不可持续的。史密瑟斯的计算显示,如果将分红与回购计算在内,美国公司在顶峰时为此支付了大约70%的利润。此后,公司分红一泻千里,不得不重启发行股票。现在,公司需要筹集股东权益以偿付债权人,而非借钱回报股东。

The shift in the supply-demand balance is not confined to America. European companies have already raised a total of 56 billion ($76 billion) in rights issues this year, according to dealReporter, an information service. Robert Buckland, a strategist at Citigroup, says that British equity supply was shrinking at 4% per annum in early 2008, and is now growing by a similar amount. That is all down to financial companies, which have had to raise capital to repair their balance-sheets; net issuance from the rest of the market is basically flat.

供需平衡的改变并不仅限于美国。根据信息服务公司dealReporter的报告,欧洲公司今年通过发行权利股已总共筹集了560亿欧元(合760亿美元)。花旗策略师Robert Buckland认为,自2008年初开始,英国权益融资量以每年4%的速度缩减,而现在正等量回升。这都源于金融公司,他们不得不筹集资本以修补他们的资产负债表,而其他市场的净发行量基本平稳。

The recent stockmarket rally has undoubtedly helped companies successfully issue shares. But it will also tempt more businesses to sell equities, putting a potential cap on the rally. As Mr Buckland puts it: “Equity issuance soaks up money that might otherwise have been used to drive the market higher.”

最近的股市回升无疑帮助了公司顺利发行股份。然而这也会促使更多权益抛售,这无形中限制了反弹。正如Buckland指出的那样,“新股的发行吸干了本该进一步抬高市场的资金。”

Another positive-feedback loop in bull markets used to be the final-salary pension fund. As share prices rose, pension schemes would move into surplus, allowing sponsoring companies to enjoy contribution holidays. That boosted both their cashflow and their profits, giving a further uplift to share prices. American companies could include an “expected return” from pension assets in their income statements, a return that drifted higher over the life of the bull market.

另一个牛市中曾经的正向反馈机制是最终薪金养老基金。当股价上涨时,养老计划将产生盈余,允许参加公司免于缴纳。这同时增强了公司的现金流与利润,使得股价进一步上涨。美国公司视养老资产为“预期收益”,并计入利润表,而该收益进一步延长了牛市的持续时间。

But a dismal decade for equities and low bond yields have now sent many companies into deficit. In Britain, under the fairly conservative assumptions used by the Pension Protection Fund, private-sector schemes had a deficit of £188 billion ($277 billion) in April. Having an exposure to a final-salary pension scheme is now a drag on a company’s share price, not a boon. BT, for example, is almost having to double its annual pensions contribution to £525m, a move that helped prompt a 59% decline in the British telecoms giant’s annual dividend.

然而,现在权益投资不景气以及债券的低收益使得许多公司都出现了亏损。在英国,以养老保护基金相当保守的估计,私营部门计划4月的亏空已达1880亿英镑(合2770亿美元)。最终薪金养老计划开始拖累而非施惠于公司股价。距离来说,英国电信的年养老支出已翻倍至5250亿英镑,此举使英国电信业巨头的年分红急跌59%。

Tax and regulation also work in a buoyant market’s favour. Booms tend to bolster tax revenues and make the government appreciate the virtues of the finance industry; cities compete to attract banks and asset managers by offering tax advantages and minimal regulation. When the bust comes, taxes rise and regulations are tightened. Activity slows and investment is discouraged.

税收与监管也助长了市场的繁荣。繁荣时税收收入大涨,导致政府对金融产业的贡献青睐有加。城市竞相提供税收优惠以及简化监管,以吸引银行以及资产管理家安家落户。但当泡沫破灭时,政府便提高税收,增强监管。金融活动放缓,投资乏力。

All these effects can take many years to gain momentum, and help explain why bull markets can last much longer than observers expect. By the same token, however, when these processes go into reverse, they can also be self-perpetuating. And that is why there will have to be a lot more evidence than a couple of months of rising share prices before one can say that a new bull market is under way.

所有这些因素可以提供数年的动力,这也解释了为什么牛市能够比观察家们预计持续更长的时间。然而,相应的,当这些反向运作时,他们也将是自我加强。这也是为什么区区数月的股价反弹并不足以证明新牛市到来的原因。

发表于11:15 | 阅读全文 | 评论 0 | 编辑 | 分享 0

相关文章:
economist(经济学人)精品文章中英对照
economist(经济学人)精品文章中英对照_英语学习_外语学习_教育专区。Whopper to ...6. 名言警句的引用。 《经济学人》 的文章经常不经意间引用一些名言警句、 ...
赏析版2013年6月经济学人文章(英汉双语对照)汇_图文
赏析版2013年6月经济学人文章(英汉双语对照)汇_英语学习_外语学习_教育专区。...170 年来《经济学人》一贯倡导自由贸易,刺破政府的膨胀,一贯主张保护个人自由。...
《经济学人》英语热点文章精选8篇(中英文对照
经济学人》英语热点文章精选8篇(中英文对照_英语考试_外语学习_教育专区。...地图公司高德软件投 资了 3 亿美元,并向新浪微博(中国版推特)投资了近 6 亿...
赏析版2013年6月经济学人文章(英汉双语对照)汇
赏析版2013年6月经济学人文章(英汉双语对照)汇_英语学习_外语学习_教育专区。经济学人经济学人中文网 赏析版 2013 年 6 月经济学人文章(英汉双语对照)汇集 Cont...
15年每周经济学人报刊中英文对照
15年每周经济学人报刊中英文对照_英语学习_外语学习_教育专区。空气污染 英国...将大气中人为造成的微粒物质除去的话,2008 年的 出生人口人均寿命将增加六个月...
economist(经济学人)精品文章中英对照
economist(经济学人)精品文章中英对照_英语学习_外语学习_教育专区。Economist 经济...6. 名言警句的引用。 《经济学人》 的文章经常不经意间引用一些名言警句、 ...
2015年8月经济学人(英汉双语对照)
2015年8月经济学人(英汉双语对照)_院校资料_高等教育_教育专区。2015 年 8 月《经济学人中英双语对照 2015-08-01 西班牙经济 伊比利亚的黎明 Spain's economy...
经济学人2016年6月官方译文5篇
经济学人2016年6月官方译文5篇_英语考试_外语学习_教育专区 暂无评价|0人阅读|0次下载|举报文档经济学人2016年6月官方译文5篇_英语考试_外语学习_教育专区。...
赏析版2012年6月经济学人文章(英汉双语对照)汇集
赏析版2012年6月经济学人文章(英汉双语对照)汇集_英语学习_外语学习_教育专区。经济学人经济学人中文网 赏析版 2012 年 6 月经济学人文章(英汉双语对照)汇集 Co...
经济学人中英文版
经济学人中英文版_经济/市场_经管营销_专业资料。Taking its medicine.自尝苦果...今年 8 月 6 日,世界上最大的学名药(通用名药)生产公司以色列梯瓦制药工业...
更多相关标签:
经济学人中英对照 | 经济学人中英文对照 | ae cs6中英文对照表 | pr cs6中英文对照表 | aecs6中英文对照 | ai cs6中英文对照 | ps cs6中英文对照表 | 中国经济学人中英文版 |