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Xi Jinping and the Chinese dream 习近平和中国梦
The vision of China’s new president should serve his people, not a nationalist state 新主席对中国的远景设想应当是服务人民,不是成为民族主义的国家

IN 1793 a British

envoy, Lord Macartney, arrived at the court of the Chinese emperor, hoping to open an embassy. He brought with him a selection of gifts from his newly industrialising nation. The Qianlong emperor, whose country then accounted for about a third of global GDP, swatted him away: “Your sincere humility and obedience can clearly be seen,” he wrote to King George III, but we do not have “the slightest need for your country?s manufactures”. The British returned in the 1830s with gunboats to force trade open, and China?s attempts at reform ended in collapse, humiliation and, eventually, Maoism. 1793 年,英国刚刚开启工业化进程之时,英国使节马戛尔尼来到中国,拜见清朝乾隆帝, 呈献了精选的礼物,希望开设驻华使馆。当时,中国 GDP 约占世界三分之一,乾隆一句话 便打发了:“汝谦卑恭顺,真心可昭日月。”并回信乔治三世道:“天朝物产丰盈,无需同外 国互通有无。”1830 年代,英国人又回来了,用坚船利炮轰开了中国贸易的大门。随后,中 国变法运动失败,开始了屈辱的历史。最后,毛泽东出现了。 China has made an extraordinary journey along the road back to greatness. Hundreds of millions have lifted themselves out of poverty, hundreds of millions more have joined the new middle class. It is on the verge of reclaiming what it sees as its rightful position in the world. China?s global influence is expanding and within a decade its economy is expected to overtake America?s. In his first weeks in power, the new head of the ruling Communist Party, Xi Jinping, has evoked that rise with a new slogan which he is using, as belief in Marxism dies, to unite an increas ingly diverse nation. He calls his new doctrine the “Chinese dream” evoking its American equivalent. Such slogans matter enormously in China (see article). News bulletins are full of his dream. Schools organise speaking competitions about it. A talent show on televis ion is looking for “The V oice of the Chinese Dream”. 中国伟大复兴之路可谓非比寻常。成千上万的人摆脱了贫困,又有成千上万的人成为中产。 现在,中国距其世界的合法位置近在咫尺。中国的世界影响力不断扩展,不出十年,中国经 济有望超过美国。 中国执政党共产党领导习近平在刚刚上任的前几周, 为了坚定人们的马克 思主义信念,使用新的提法,来团结日益多元发展的中国为伟大复兴而奋斗。他把中国的复 兴称为“中国梦”,这使人想到了美国梦的说法。这个提法在中国非常重要(见另文) 。有大 量媒体援引中国梦一词。学校也组织相关的主题演讲比赛。电视播出一文艺节目,找寻“中 国梦想的声音”。 Countries, like people, should dream. But what exactly is Mr Xi?s vision? It seems to include some American-style aspiration, which is welcome, but also a troubling whiff of nationalism and of repackaged authoritarianism. 国家跟民族一样,应当有梦想。但习近平说的梦想是指什么?可以说是美国式的愿望,这么 解释是受欢迎的, 但其中也有一点民族主义和重新包装的权威主义的味道, 这是令人不安的。
The end of ideology 意识形态的终结

Since the humiliations of the 19th century, China?s goals have been wealth and strength. Mao Zedong tried to attain them through Marxism. For Deng Xiaoping and his successors, ideology was more flexible (though party control was absolute). Jiang Zemin?s theory of the “Three Represents” said the party must embody the changed society, allowing private businessmen to join the party. Hu Jintao pushed the “scientific -development outlook” and “harmonious development” to deal with the disharmony created by the yawning wealth gap. 自从 19 世纪的屈辱之后,中国就一直为富强而奋斗。毛泽东想通过马克思主义实现,邓小 平以及后来的领导人采取了更为灵活的态度 (但党的控制是绝对的) 。 江泽民提出了“三个代 表”的理论,要求党必须和时代俱进,允许私人企业家加入共产党。胡锦涛提出了“科学发展 观”和“和谐社会”,以此来解决社会的不和谐,解决不断加大的贫富差距。 Now, though, comes a new leader with a new style and a popular photogenic wife. Mr Xi talks of reform; he has launched a campaign against official extravagance. Even short of detail, his dream is different from anything that has come before. Compared with his predecessors? stodgy ideologies, it unashamedly appeals to the emotions. Under Mao, the party assaulted anything old and erased the imperial past, now Mr Xi?s emphasis on national greatness has mad e party leaders heirs to the dynasts of the 18th century, when Qing emperors demanded that Western envoys kowtow (Macartney refused). 现在,新领导带来了新风气,也带来了流行上相的夫人。习近平谈到了改革,着重解决官员 奢侈浪费的问题。虽然细节不为人知,但习近平的梦想却跟前人平庸古板的意识形态不同, 因为习的梦想极大的强调了民族情感。毛泽东时期的党,捣毁守旧,抹杀帝国主义的过去; 而现在习近平强调国家的伟大, 这让党的领导人又回到了 18 世纪的天朝, 当时的皇帝要求 西方使节必须行磕头礼(马戛尔尼据绝) 。 But there is also plainly practical politics at work. With growth slowing, Mr Xi?s patriotic doctrine looks as if it is designed chiefly to serve as a new source of legitimacy for the Communist Party. It is no coincidence that Mr Xi?s first mention of his dream of “the great revival of the Chinese nation” came in November in a speech at the national museum in Tiananmen Square, where an exhibition called “Road to Revival” lays out China?s suffering at the hands of colonial powers and its rescue by the Communist Party. 其实, 习近平的要求折射了其务实的政治主张。 随着增长放缓, 习近平提出如此的爱国理想, 目的好像只是为证明共产党执政的合法性。去年 11 月,天安门广场上的中国国家博物馆进 办了一场名为“复兴之路”的展览,列举了中国在强权殖民者手里遭受的苦难,并最终被共产 党所救。 同时, 习近平还发表了讲话, 首次提出了“中华民族的伟大复兴”。 这些可不是巧合。
Dream a little dream of Xi 愿习近平实现心愿

Nobody doubts that Mr Xi?s priority will be to keep the economy growing—the country?s leaders talk about it taking decades for their poor nation to catch up with the much richer Americans —and that means opening up China even more. But his dream has two clear dangers. 无人否认, 习近平的工作重点是保持经济持续发展, 中国领导人也谈到要用几十年的时间超 过更加富裕的美国,这就需要中国更加开放。但习的梦想有两点是危险的。

One is of nationalism. A long-standing sense of historical victimhood means that the rhetoric of a

resurgent nation could all too easily turn nasty. As skirmishes and provocations increase in the neighbouring seas (see Banyan), patriotic microbloggers need no encouragement to demand that the Japanese are taught a humiliating lesson. Mr Xi is already playing to the armed forces. In December, on an inspection tour of the navy in southern China, he spoke of a “strong-army dream”. The armed forces are delighted by such talk. Even if Mr Xi?s main aim in pandering to hawks is just to keep them on side, the fear is that it presages a more belligerent stance in East Asia. Nobody should mind a confident China at ease with itself, but a country transformed from a colonial victim to a bully itching to settle scores with Japan would bring great harm to the region —including to China itself. 一是民族主义。 中国人的历史屈辱感由来已久, 由此激发的民族复兴的说法会让其它人感到 不快。随着中国与邻国的海上冲突和挑衅的增加(见菩提专栏文章) ,那些爱国的博客作家 动不动就写道,要狠狠地教训日本。习上台后也一直加强军备。去年 11 月,习近平视察中 国南海舰队时提到了“强军梦”,武装部队对此十分高兴。就算习近平的目的是迎合强硬派, 让其站在自己一边,但人们也担心,这是中国在东亚摆出更加好战的姿态的前奏。中国不但 自信,而且还自鸣得意,这点谁也不会介意。但是,中国从以前的殖民地受害者,变成现在 的霸权者,急于和日本清算旧帐,这样做只能给危害亚洲,也包括中国。 The other risk is that the Chinese dream ends up handing more power to the party than to the people. In November Mr Xi echoed the American dream, declaring that “To meet [our people?s] desire for a happy life is our mission.” Ordinary Chinese citizens are no less am bitious than Americans to own a home (see article), send a child to university or just have fun (see article). But Mr Xi?s main focus seems to be on strengthening the party?s absolute claim on power. The “spirit of a strong army”, he told the navy, lay in resolutely obeying the party?s orders. Even if the Chinese dream avoids Communist rhetoric, Mr Xi has made it clear that he believes the Soviet Union collapsed because the Communist Party there strayed from ideological orthodoxy and rigid discipline. “The Chinese dream”, he has said, “is an ideal. Communists should have a higher ideal, and that is Communism.” 另一点是,中国梦会让中共权利更集中,人民权利更少。去年 11 月,习近平重申了美国梦, 并称“满足我国人民实现美好生活的愿望是我们的使命。”普通的中国公民和美国人一样,都 渴望拥有一个家(见另文) ,送孩子上大学或是快乐地生活(见另文) 。但习近平主要关注的 还是党对权力的绝对控制。 他对海军说, 绝对服从党的领导是建设“强大的军队精神”的基础。 就算是中国梦一说闪烁了中共的说词, 习近平已经明确表示, 他认为前苏联的崩溃是因为他 们偏离正统意识形态,缺乏严格的组织纪律。他说,“中国梦只是一个理想。”共产党人应当 树立更高的理想,那就是共产主义。 A fundamental test of Mr Xi?s vision will be his attitude to the rule of law. The good side of the dream needs it: the economy, the happiness of his people and China?s real strength depend on arbitrary power being curtailed. But corruption and official excess will be curbed only when the constitution becomes more powerful than the party. This message was spelled out in an editorial in a reformis t newspaper on January 1st, entitled “The Dream of Constitutionalism”. The editorial called for China to use the rule of law to become a “free and strong country”. But the censors changed the article at the last minute and struck out its title. If that is the true expression of Mr Xi?s dream, then China still has a long journey ahead.

习近平对法治的态度将是他远景的试金石。中国梦的良好发展需要法治:中国经济的发展, 人民幸福的实现以及中国的真正实力的展现, 这一切都需要削减强权。 但只有当宪法高于政 党之时,法治才能变得更加有力,贪污腐败才得以抑制,机构人员才得以精简。1 月 1 日, 有份改革派报纸刊登了一篇社论,题为《宪政梦》 ,明确阐述了这个观点。文章呼吁,中国 需要利用法治来变成“自由强大的国家。”但是中国审查员在最后一刻改动了文章,换掉了原 来的标题。假如这篇文章真实阐述了习近平的中国梦,那么中国前面的路还很漫长。

Reforming education 教育改革

The great schools revolution 教育大革命
Education remains the trickiest part of attempts to reform the public sector. But as ever more countries embark on it, some vital lessons are beginning to be learned 教育改革始终是社会改革中最棘手的一部分,但随着越来越多的国家着手进行改革,人们逐渐学到一些重 要的经验教训。

FROM Toronto to Wroclaw, London to Rome, pupils and teachers have been returning to the classroom after their summer break. But this September schools themselves are caught up in a global battle of ideas. In many countries education is at the forefront of political debate, and reformers desperate to improve their national performance are drawing examples of good practice from all over the world. 从多伦多到弗罗茨瓦夫,从伦敦到罗马,学生和老师们在暑假之后陆陆续续开始返校。然而 这个九月,教育本身却陷入了全球争论之中。教育成了许多国家政治辩论的前线,急欲提高 国家表现的改革者们开始从世界各地借鉴良好的教育改革实践经验。 Why now? One answer is the sheer amount of data available on performance, not just within countries but between them. In 2000 the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) at the OECD, a rich-country club, began tracking academic attainment by the age of 15 in 32 countries. Many were shocked by where they came in the rankings. (PISA ?s latest figures appear in table 1.) Other outfits, too, have been measuring how good or bad schools are. McKinsey, a consultancy, has monitored which education systems have improved most in recent years. 为什么现在急欲改革呢?一个答案在于如今各国学生成绩数据的透明性。 这些成绩数据不仅 在某国内是透明的,在国与国之间也是透明的。2000 年,经济合作与发展组织 OECD(事 实上是富国俱乐部)开展了国际学生评估项目 PISA,开始跟踪记录 32 个国家的 15 岁学生 的成绩。很多国家都对他们国家排名感到震惊。 (表 1:PISA 最新数据)其他机构也开始评 估各国教育的优劣。咨询公司麦肯锡就开始监测哪些教育体系在最近几年中进步最快。 Technology has also made a difference. After a number of false starts, many people now believe that the internet can make a real difference to educating children. Hence the success of institutions like America?s Kahn Academy。 Experimentation is also infectious; the more governments try things, the more others examine, and copy, the results. 技术也产生了很大影响。 经历了最初一系列失误之后, 现在很多人都相信互联网能够真正影 响学生教育, 因此才有了诸如美国可汗学院 (可汗学院是美国著名的网络课程学校) 的成功。

教育试验也是极具影响力的。 越来越多的国家进行试验, 就有越来越多的国家对其试验进行 检验,并复制其成功模式。 Above all, though, there has been a change in the quality of the debate. In particular, what might be called “the three great excuses” for bad schools have receded in importance. Teachers? unions have long maintained that failures in Western education could be blamed on skimpy government spending, social class and cultures that did not value education. All these make a difference, but they do not determine outcomes by themselves. 但更重要的是,如今有关教育的辩论性质发生了变化,失败教育的所谓的“三大借口”的重要 性逐渐减退。 教师工会始终认为西方教育的失败在于政府投入不足, 社会阶级分化和文化对 教育的漠视。但事实上这些虽然对教育确实有影响,但他们不足以决定现状。 The idea that good schooling is about spending money is the one that has been beaten back hardest. Many of the 20 leading economic performers in the OECD doubled or tripled their education spending in real terms between 1970 and 1994, yet outcomes in many countries stagnated —or went backwards. Educational performance varies widely even among countries that spend similar amounts per pupil. Such spending is highest in the United States —yet America lags behind other developed countries on overall outcomes in secondary education. Andreas Schleicher, head of analys is at PISA, thinks that only about 10% of the variation in pupil performance has anything to do with money. 好的教育就是资金投入的理念遭到重击。国际经济合作组织 OECD20 个国家经济发达,其 中许多国家 1970-1994 年间对教育的资金投入增加了 1 倍或 2 倍, 但他们教育发展却仍然停 滞不前,甚至有所倒退。即便是平均资金投入相同的国家,其教育质量也有很大不同。美国 的教育资金投入是最高的,但其中等教育的整体水平却落后于其他发达国家。PISA 国际学 生评估分析部主管安德烈亚斯 ?施莱歇尔认为学生表现的不同只有 10%和教育资金投入有 关。 Many still insist, though, that social class makes a difference. Martin Johnson, an education trade unionist, points to Britain?s “inequality between classes, which is among the largest in the wealthiest nations” as the main reason why its pupils underperform. A review of reforms over the past decade by resear chers at Oxford University supports him. “Despite rising attainment levels,” it concludes, “there has been little narrowing of longstanding and sizeable attainment gaps. Those from disadvantaged backgrounds remain at higher risks of poor outcomes.” America n studies confirm the point; Dan Goldhaber of the University of Washington claims that “non-school factors”, such as family income, account for as much as 60% of a child?s performance in school. 然而还是有很多人坚持认为社会阶级分化对教育质量有影响。教育工会成员马丁 ?约翰逊指 出, 英国社会阶级的不平等是发达国家中最严重的, 这是英国学生学习表现不好的最主要原 因。哈佛大学研究人员对过去十年的教育改革研究支持了他的观点。该研究结果总结说,尽 管学生总体成绩有所提高, 但不同阶级学生的成绩差距却丝毫没有缩小。 家庭背景不好的学 生依然更容易成绩不好。美国的一项研究也证实了这一点。华盛顿大学的丹?戈德哈伯声称, 非教育因素诸如家庭收入等对孩子学习成绩的影响占了 60%。

Yet the link is much more variable than education egalitarians suggest. Australia, for instance, has

wide discrepancies of income, but came a creditable ninth in the most recent PISA study. China, rapidly developing into one of the world?s least equal societies, finished first. 然而这其中的联系比教育平等主义者所想的要复杂得多。 例如, 澳大利亚家庭收入差距很大, 但令人难以置信的是,在最近的 PISA 测试中,澳大利亚位居第九。而发展迅速,世界贫富 差距最大的国家之一的中国更是高居榜首。 Culture is certainly a factor. Many Asian parents pay much more attention to their children?s test results than Western ones do, and push their schools to succeed. Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea sit comfortably at the top of McKinsey?s rankings (see table 2). But not only do some Western countries do fairly well; there are also huge differences within them. Even if you put to one side the unusual Asians, as this briefing will now do, many Western systems could jump forward merely by bringing their worst schools up to the standard of their best. 文化当然也是一个重要因素。 亚洲家长比西方家长更加重视孩子的学习成绩, 他们推动了教 育的成功。新加坡、香港和韩国在麦肯锡排行榜中轻轻松松位居榜前。 (见表 2)而西方国 家非但整体表现一般, 他们国内各学校表现也有很大差距。 即使排除这些非比寻常的亚洲国 家(下文也将也不予评论) ,西方国家的教育体系也很难将国内最差的学校成绩提高到最好 学校的成绩水平。 So what are the secrets of success? Though there is no one template, four important themes emerge: decentralisation (handing power back to schools); a focus on underachieving pupils; a choice of different sorts of schools; and high standards for teachers. These themes can all be traced in three places that did well in McKinsey?s league: Ontario, Poland and Saxony. 那么成功的秘诀是什么呢?虽然没有成功模板,但有四个重要的因素值得考虑:分权(还权 于学校) ;关注成绩落后的学生;增加不同类型学校的选择;提高师资水平。在麦肯锡排行 榜排名靠前的安大略、波兰和撒克逊都很好地运用了这些因素。
Reform without rancor 没有抱怨的改革

"Ontario really is impressive,” enthuses Sir Michael Barber, former head of global education practice at McKinsey (now at Pearson). The Canadian province has a high proportion of immigrants, many without English as a first language, yet it now has one of the wo rld?s best-performing schools systems, after bringing in what one of its architects calls “reform without rancour”. “安大略确实令人印象深刻,”麦肯锡全球教育实践部前部长(如今就职于皮尔森)迈克 ?巴 伯爵士兴奋地说。加拿大安大略省的移民比例很高,很多人的母语都不是英语,但在引进被 成立人之一称为“没有抱怨的改革”后,该省拥有了世界上表现最优秀的教育体系。 When Dalton McGuinty was elected Ontario?s premier in 2003, he embraced “whole -system reform”. Instead of directing reforms from the centre, the government encouraged schools to set their own targets and sent experienced teams to help them get there. Schools with large number s of immigrant children could apply for special help, and could choose whether to extend the school day to do this, or work longer with the slower pupils. 2003 年道尔顿?麦金蒂被任命为安大略的省长之后,他积极开展了“全盘改革”。政府鼓励学 校设定自己的目标而不是以政府为中心开展自上而下的改革。 政府会派有经验的团队帮助学

校达到既定目标。 有大量移民子女的学校还可以申请特别帮助, 可以选择延长学时或者多花 时间照顾跟不上的学生。 The Ontario reformers made a special point of gaining full public support. Every school—even in the remotest “fly-in” places—had to be improved by the reforms, and had to show in regular inspections that it was making progress. These efforts were not cheap —since 2004, total funding for education has gone up by 30%. And their success is debated. As Mr McGuinty faces a tight election next month, some critics claim that inner-city schools in the capital, Toronto, are “coasting”, because improvements tend to come early and the intractable problems show themselves later. But Ontario has become a byword for decentralised, popular reform. 安大略改革者认为获得全部公众支持意义重大。每个学校----甚至是交通不便的偏远地区---都必须在改革中有所进步, 并且必须在定期检查中展现进步之所在。 但这些努力代价极其高 昂 ----2004 年以来,安大略教育总投资已经上升了 30%,成就却仍有争议。下个月麦金蒂 将面临紧张的选举,有些批评家声称,一些首府多伦多市内的学校质量实际正在滑坡,因为 进步似乎来得早而棘手的问题则出现的晚。 但不论如何, 安大略已经成为分权这个流行的改 革方式的有力证明。 Lessons from Poland are equally impressive. The fourth-largest city, Wroclaw, cannot rival Warsaw for business buzz or Krakow for beauty; but its secondary schools have moved it into the “significantly above average” category in the PISA rankings, well above Britain and Sweden, as well as former eastern-block rivals. 波兰经验同样令人瞩目。 波兰第四大城市弗罗茨瓦夫在经济上比不过华沙, 在美景上比不过 克拉科夫,但他的中等教育已经远远超过 PISA 项目的平均水平,超过了英国和瑞典,也超 过了前文提到的东方国家竞争者。 Poland, like Ontario, illustrates the virtues of decentralisation. It used its new freedom to dismantle a centralised system which had channelled roughly half its pupils into an academic education and the rest, as factory-fodder, into less well-appointed vocational schools. Funding and administration are still controlled by state bureaucrats, but heads have freedom to hire teachers and can choose which curriculum to use from a list of private providers. National exams at 12-13, 15-16 and 18-19, and supplementary tests each year, allow local authorities to monitor carefully how the schools are doing. 和安大略一样,波兰也证明了分权的优点。波兰放弃了集中体制选择了新的自由体制。集中 体制曾经将波兰的学生划分为两类, 一类接受学术教育, 另一类进入设备相对不够完善的职 业学校,成为工厂职工。现在资金和领导权仍然由地区政府控制,但学校领导可以自由聘任 教师,自由选择私人制定者制定的课程。12-13 岁、15-16 岁以及 18-19 岁的学生每年需参加 国家考试和增补考试,地方政府可以由此仔细分析各个学校的表现。 At secondary School Number 12 Danuta Daszkiewicz-Ordylowska, the head teacher, is celebrating another bumper year. The school excels in sciences and languages —English is still popular, but Russian is making a comeback. “Now they don?t have to learn it like their parents, they find it?s useful,” she says. She admits that pupils feel pressure (“Too much,” grumbles a former parent. “We?re ending up with a lot more children having to see psychologists about stress.”) But Jaroslaw Obremski, the deputy mayor, exults at how well his town?s pupils are doing.

在第十二中学,达努塔?达什卡维奇 ?奥迪罗斯卡校长正庆祝又一年的进步。该校科学和语言 成绩十分突出----英语很受欢迎但俄语受欢迎度也有所上升。 “现在学生们不必向他们家长一 样学习(被逼着学) ,他们觉得学习很有用处,”她说。她也承认学生们有压力。 (“压力实在 太大了,”一个家长抱怨说, “很多孩子压力大得都得去看心理医生了。”)但副市长扎罗斯 罗?奥布雷姆斯基还是为学生们的表现感到兴奋。 Mr Obremski illustrates the power of local civic pride to improve schools. “We can do better,” he says. “I?m worried we don?t encourage our elites enough. How will we get an Oxford or a Polish Harvard? We?re still squeamish about really pushing the best.” He is sceptical of the role of national government: it has, for instance, signed agreements with the teachers? unions which, he thinks, give them too much power. He is fiercely competitive. “Look just behind us in the league tables,” he says. “The regions doing best are among the poorest in the east of the country. They?re snapping at our heels.” 奥布雷姆斯基先生利用了市民自豪感的力量来提升教育质量。 “我们能做得更好, ”他说, “我 担心我们对精英的激励还不够。 我们怎样才能有哈佛或者是波兰的哈佛这样的学校呢?在推 动精英学校建设方面我们还是过于谨慎。”他质疑中央政府的角色:例如,政府和教师工会 签订协议,在他看来,这意味着给教师过多的权利。他认为自己很有竞争力和说服力。“看 看排行榜上排在我们后面的地区,”他说,“做的最好的都来自东部最贫穷的国家。他们很快 就追上我们了。”
German lessons 德国经验

The first PISA study, in 2000, placed German pupils well below the OECD average for reading and literacy. This was “a real shock to the system”, says Ulrike Greiner, a teacher in Reutlingen, in south-west Germany. The research showed a higher correlation between economic status and achievement than in any other OECD country. For this, people blamed a system which allotted pupils to schools on the basis of perceived ability at the age of ten. A race to reform among the states followed, and the victor —to widespread surprise—was Saxony, from the old east, which reached fifth place in the McKinsey table. 2000 年首个 PISA 研究项目中, 德国学生的阅读和文学成绩略低于在国际经济发展与合作组 织成员国平均水平。“真是对我们教育体系的震撼”,德国西南城市罗伊特罗根的教师乌尔利 克?格林说。研究表明在德国,经济地位和成绩表现的联系要比其他成员国要大的多。人们 将此归咎于德国的教育体系,该体系以学生 10 岁的理解能力的不同为基础,将学生分配给 不同的学校。各州针对该体系的改革竞赛开始后,令人吃惊的是,最后的胜利者居然是来自 古老东部德国的撒克逊。它在麦肯锡排行榜中高居第五! Since unification Saxony has restored historic cities like Leipz ig and Dresden, yet they remain blighted by the uniform social housing of communist days. The old regime still influences education, too. Wolfgang Nowak, a west German Social Democrat who led the school reforms, explains : “We wanted to lose the ideology, b ut keep the best of the old eastern system —the selective gymnasium for the academically minded, but also a bigger focus on the ?middle schools? for other pupils.” Crucially, he cut out the third -tier Hauptschulen schools for weak academic performers. “It?s terrible for integration, it?s terrible for results.” (The best Chinese schools, adds Sir Michael Barber, have also modified their obsession with high-fliers to ensure that they address

the “long tail” of underachievement—something that hampers Britain?s performance, too.) 尽管撒克逊联邦州有像莱比锡和德累斯顿这样的历史老城, 但他们还是处于东德共产主义时 期吃大锅饭的影响当中。 这个曾经的制度也影响了教育。 西德领导教育改革的社会民主主义 者沃尔夫冈?诺瓦克解释说:“我们想剔除曾经东德体系中的理想主义,保留其中最好的部分 ----有选择性的为有学术天分的学生提供预科大学,同时更重视为其他学生设置不同的中 学。”重要的是,他去掉了为学习成绩差的学生设立的第三类中学。“他(第三类中学)不利 于教育整体水平的提高,不利于学生成绩提高。”(“中国最好的学校,”迈克?巴伯爵士说补 充说,“也开始减少对精英的迷恋,以此来减少成绩不好学生的数量。成绩差的学生过多也 是拖累英国整体成绩的重要因素”) Many parents still look back on communist East Germany as a provider of first-rate secondary education in its many good grammar schools, though few regret the ideological brainwashing that went with it. Saxony kept the selective element, but sent pupils to secondary school at 13 rather than 11. That has made a big difference to the performance of boys, in particular. “Eleven is just too early to assess what they are capable of,” says Mr Nowak. 很多家长仍然认为共产主义东德在众多文法学校中提供了一流的中等教育, 但几乎没有对当 时伴随的理想主义洗脑教育感到惋惜。 撒克逊保留了东德有选择性的中学教育, 但让学生在 13 岁上中学而不是 11 岁。这尤其对男生的成绩产生了重大影响。“评估一个学生的能力, 11 岁实在是太小了。”诺瓦克说。 Exams in Saxony, previously organised by the schools themselves or with loose oversight, were opened up to external regulators. At the Gottlieb Bienert middle school in Plauen, a suburb of Dresden, head teacher Gert Gorski explains that the higher up the school pupils proceed, the more they follow different paths, though they mingle for non-academic subjects. The lower performers leave school at 15 with a basic qualification, usually in practical skills. “We don?t mind being a middle school with some pupils from lower academic groups,” says Mr Gorski, “as long as this middle is a standard we can be proud of.” This year Berlin and Hamburg have followed Saxony in abolishing the low-performing Hauptschulen. 撒克逊以前考试由学校自己组织,或者只有宽松的监管。如今,考试对外部的管理者是开放 的。普劳恩戈特利布别内尔特中学校长格特?戈尔斯基说,尽管学生们学术目标不同仍混在 一起学习,但学生年级越高,选择道路越不同。学习成绩不好的学生在 15 岁的时候带着最 基本的技能离开学校,这些技能基本上是非常实用的。“我们不介意我们的中学接收学习成 绩不好的学生,”戈尔斯基先生说,“只要我们的中学在一个令我们自豪的水平就可以。”今 年柏林和汉堡也效仿撒克逊废除了只接收学习成绩不好学生的第三类中学。 In Britain, which has slipped down the PISA rankings in the past few years, examples like these are being studied closely. Michael Gove, the Conservative education secretary, pinpoints the lessons of PISA 2009 as “greater autonomy for schools; sharper accountability; raising the prestige of the profession and having greater control over discipline.” In pursuit of a more diverse supply of schools, the government is expanding the number of independent academies (Tony Blair?s innovation) to replace local authority -run comprehensives, and has allowed Free Schools, which are run by parents, charities and local groups. 过去几年英国在 PISA 的排名有所下滑,研究人员正仔细研究这些案例。保守党教育部长迈 克?戈夫一针见血的指出,2009 年 PISA 的教训是,学校应该有更大的自主权,更清晰地责

任,要提升教师这一职业的声望,严格控制惩罚。为了获得更多对学校的支持,政府扩大独 立学院的规模(托尼?布莱尔的革新) ,以代替地区自主的综合学校,并允许家长、慈善团体 和地区团体成立免费学校。 Introducing new types of schools, however, is no guarantee of better outcomes. Sweden, admired by Mr Gove for its independent, non-selective, state-funded Free Schools, has had a sticky period in international rankings. Its drive to open new kinds of schools is not yet matched by rigorous inspections to help weaker schools target their failings. Sceptics of America?s fairly new experiment of this kind, privately funded charter schools, think that politicians are “too invested” in them to close them if they fail. Authorisation and renewal processes for innovative schools need to be robust, so that bad experiments are not prolonged and failures are not ignored. 然而引进新的学校类型并不能保证结果会更好。 戈夫先生推崇的瑞典非选择性地区免费学校 在国际排名经历了一个停滞时期。 建立新型学校的动力和为帮助普通学校达到目标的严格考 察并不相符。 美国最近对建立这种私人提供资金建立民办学校进行了试验, 但有人对此表示 怀疑。他们认为政治家投资心理太强,如果这些学校失败的话就会关闭它们。对这些革新的 学校的授权和更新机制需要健全,这样可以保证失败试验不被继续,失败原因不被忽视。 On the whole, though, the rise of charter schools in American cities has brought dynamism to one of the tougher areas of reform. These are schools aimed at the poorest parts of society, where aspirations are often low. Letting new providers in also attracts people who are interested in education and have a talent for organisation, but no taste for bureaucracy. 但总体来说, 美国城市民办学校的兴起给教育改革中艰难的一个领域带来了活力。 这些学校 是为社会最底层人民设立的, 这个群体的期望往往很低。 允许新的资金提供者进入可以吸引 有意于教育并有组织能力同时对政治没有兴趣的人。 A mass of data shows that both profit and not-for-profit innovations can work. Diversity of supply in schools concentrates minds on what kind of teaching is best, particularly in challenging places. It also offers the freedom to set working conditions outside the restraints of local authorities and the teachers? unions, giving heads more capacity to tailor schools to the needs of their particular pupils. In America?s Aspire charter schools, which have done best in the rankings, teachers follow strict guidelines to chart each pupil?s progress. Aspire?s motto is “College for Certain”; higher education is made the ambition of teachers and pupils alike. 大量数据表明,盈利和非盈利性革新都有作用。尤其是在经济相对落后的地区,学校支持的 多样化使人们对什么是最好的教育方式展开了思考。 同时这也为摆脱地区控制和教师工会的 限制,设立工作岗位提供了自由,并保证了为特殊学生建立学校的权利。在美国排名最高的 阿斯拜尔民办学校,老师依照严格的指导来记录学生的进步。阿斯拜尔的口号是“人人上大 学”,老师和学生对获得接受高等教育的机会一样雄心勃勃。
The key to success 成功的秘诀

Of the four chief elements of schools reform, diversity of supply is by far the most striking. From New York to Shanghai to Denmark, schools free of government control and run by non-state providers are adding quality to the mix. To date, they seem most successful where the state has been unwilling or unable to make a difference. It is still not clear whether creating archipelagoes

of Free Schools and charter schools will consistently drive improvement in other institutions, or whether that is wishful thinking. 学校改革的四大要素中,支持的多样性是目前为止最振奋人心的。从纽约到上海到丹麦,不 受政府掌控的学校和私人开办的学校提升了整体的质量。 目前为止, 他们在政府不愿或者不 能改变的地方做的是最成功的。 现在还不清楚开办大量免费学校和民办学校是否能刺激其他 学校教学质量的提升,或者这个议题是否值得考虑尝试。 What is clear, however, is that the shiniest new academy will struggle without decent teachers. An emphasis on better teacher quality is a common feature of all reforms. Countries like Finland and South Korea make life eas ier for themselves by recruiting only elite graduates, and paying them accordingly. Mr Gove has said that he wants to raise the degree threshold for teachers and offer “golden hellos” in areas of shortage, like science and language teaching. America has experimented at state level with merit pay and payment by results, but often in the teeth of opposition from the teachers? unions. 但清楚的是, 新兴学校在没有优秀的老师的情况下会举步维艰。 强调老师的质量是所有改革 的共同特征。 像芬兰和韩国这样只招收精英毕业生, 对程度不同的学生区别对待的国家会稍 微好过一些。 戈夫先生说他想要提高当老师的门槛, 而师资短缺的方面比如科学和语言方面 为老师大开方便之门。 美国在各州也实行了通过成绩来给老师工资的办法, 但通常会遭到教 师工会的反对。 In schools reform, structural progress —new sorts of schools, reorganised old ones, new exams —can happen very fast. Better teachers take much longer to form. They should be made the priority. 在学校改革中, 结构性进步----开办新型学校, 改革旧学校, 开展新考试----可以很快就出现, 但教师质量的提升则需要更长的时间,这应当作为教育改革的当务之急。

Margaret Thatcher 玛格丽特·撒切尔 The lady who changed the world 改变世界的女人 ONLY a handful of peace-time politicians can claim to have changed the world. Margaret Thatcher, who died this morning, was one. She transformed not just her own Conservative Party, but the whole of British politics. Her enthusiasm for privatisation launched a global revolution and her willingness to stand up to tyranny helped to bring an end to the Soviet Union. Winston Churchill won a war, but he never created an “ism”. 和平时期以改变世界为己任的政治家为数寥寥。今天早上去世的玛格丽特· 撒切尔就是这样 一个人。 她不仅改造了保守党, 也改变了整个英国政坛。 她对私有化的热情引发了全球革命, 她对抗暴政的意志加速了苏联灭亡。温斯顿· 丘吉尔取得了战争的胜利,但他从来没有创造 一个“主义”。 The essence of Thatcherism was to oppose the status quo and bet on freedom —odd, since as a

prim control freak, she was in some ways the embodiment of conservatism. She thought nations could become great only if individuals were set free. Her struggles had a theme: the right of individuals to run their own lives, as free as possible from the micromanagement of the state. 撒切尔主义的本质是反抗现状, 争取自由——这很奇怪, 她是一个拘谨并且有强烈控制欲的 人,体现了保守主义的某些特征。她认为只有个人获得自由,国家才能强盛。让个人能够掌 控自己的生活,国家的微观管理尽量提供自由,这是她为之奋斗的主题。 In Britain her battles with the left —especially the miners —gave her a reputation as a blue-rinse Boadicea. But she was just as willing to clobber her own side, sidelining old-fashioned Tory “wets” and unleashing her creed on conservative strongholds, notably the “big bang” in the City of London. Many of her pithiest putdowns were directed towards her own side: “U turn if you want to”, she told the Conservatives as unemployment passed 2m, “The lady?s not for turning.” 在英国她与左派——特别是矿工——斗争,这让她得到了“蓝发博阿迪西亚”的绰号。但是, 她乐于抨击自己所在一方,她还把保守党内的“温和派”晾在一边,并且向保守派大本营灌输 她的保守观点,尤其是有关伦敦金融城“大爆炸”的看法。许多最简练的抨击是针对她自己阵 营中的人,当失业率超过 200 万时她对保守党说:“你们想回头是可以的,但这位女士不会 回头。” Paradoxes abound. Mrs Thatcher was a true Blue Tory who marginalised the Tory Party for a generation. The Tories ceased to be a national party, retreating to the south and the suburbs and all but dying off in Scotland, Wales and the northern cities. Tony Blair profited more from the Thatcher revolution than John Major, her successor: with the trade unions emasculated and the left discredited, he was able to remodel his party and sell it triumphantly to Middle England. His huge majority in 1997 ushered in 13 years of New Labour rule. 悖论无处不在。作为真正的保守党人,她使保守党在一代人的时间里游离于主流社会之外。 保守党不再是一个全国性的政党, 它的势力范围已经退缩到英国南部和城市郊区, 同时还差 点失去苏格兰、威尔士和北部城镇地区。托尼· 布莱尔从撒切尔革命获得的收益比约翰· 梅杰 (撒切尔的继任者)要多。工会势力遭到削弱,左派失去信任,他得以重塑自己的政党,并 在英格兰中部将它成功出售。1997 年,他在议会赢得多数,迎来 13 年的工党统治。 Yet her achievements cannot be gainsaid. She reversed what her mentor, Keith Joseph, liked to call “the ratchet effect”, whereby the state was rewarded for its failures with yet more power. With the brief exception of the emergency measures taken in the wake of the financial crisis of 2007-08, there have been no moves to renationalise industries or to resume a policy of picking winners. Thanks to her, the centre of gravity of British politics moved dramatically to the right. The New Labourites of the 1990s concluded that they could rescue the Labour Party from ruin only by adopting the central tenets of Thatcherism. “The presumption should be tha t economic activity is best left to the private sector,” declared Mr Blair. Neither he nor his successors would dream of reverting to the days of nationalisation and unfettered union power. 然而她取得了不可磨灭的成就。她走到了恩师基斯 ?约瑟夫的对立面,她喜欢把自己的政策 称之为“棘轮效应”,即国家的权利太多,就要面临失败。除了在 2007 年-2008 年的金融危机 爆发之后, 政府曾短暂地采取了一些紧急措施之外, 国家对工业企业再也没有实行过收归国 有的政策,同时也没有再次实行过挑选赢家的政策。多亏了撒切尔,英国政治的重心急剧右 移。20 世纪 90 年代的新工党曾总结说,他们只有采纳撒切尔主义的核心理念才能将工党从

废墟中拯救出来。托尼 ?布莱尔也曾这样说道: “我们认为,经济活动最好留给私营部门。” 无论是托尼?布莱尔还是他的继任者,都不再梦想着回到国有化和不受束缚的工会权力的时 代。 On the world stage, too, Mrs Thatcher continues to cast a long shadow. Her combination of ideological certainty and global prominence ensured that Britain played a role in the collapse of the Soviet Union that was disproportionate to its weight in the world. Mrs Thatcher was the first British politician since Winston Churchill to be taken seriously by the leaders of all the major powers. She was a heroine to opposition politicians in eastern Europe. Her willingness to stand shoulder to shoulder with “dear Ronnie” to block Soviet expansio nism helped to promote new thinking in the Kremlin. But her insistence that Mikhail Gorbachev was a man with whom the West could do business also helped to end the cold war. 撒切尔夫人也在世界舞台上投下了漫长的身影。 她坚定的意识形态举世瞩目的声望使英国对 苏联瓦解起到了和它在世界所占分量不相符的作用。撒切尔夫人是自温斯顿· 丘吉尔以来, 第一位让所有大国领导人仔细掂量的英国政治家。 她是东欧反对派政治家的英雄。 她愿意和 “亲爱的罗尼(里根总统)”齐心协力阻止苏联扩张,催生了克里姆林宫的新思维。但是她强 调米哈伊尔?戈尔巴乔夫能和西方打交道,也有助于结束冷战。 The post-communist countries embraced her revolution heartily: by 1996 Russia had privatised some 18,000 industrial enterprises. India dismantled the licence Raj— a legacy of British Fabianism—and unleashed a cavalcade of successful companies. Across Latin America governments embraced market liberalisation. Whether they managed well or badly, all of them looked to the British example. 后共产主义国家热诚地接受了她的革命热:截止 1996 年俄罗斯对大约一万八千个工业企业 实施了私有化。 印度取消了英国费边主义的遗产——“牌照制度”, 很多成功的公司脱颖而出。 拉美政府实行市场自由化。不管他们做的好坏,都是比照着英国干的。 But today, the pendulum is swinging dangerously away from the principles Mrs Thatcher espoused. In most of the rich world, the state?s share of the economy has grown sharply in recent years. Regulations —excessive, as well as necessary—are tying up the private sector. Businessmen are under scrutiny as they have not been for 30 years. Demonstrators protest against the very existence of the banking industry. And with the rise of China, state control, not economic liberalism, is being hailed as a model for emerging countries. 然而今天的局势正在危险地背离了撒切尔夫人的信奉的法则。 最近几年大部分发达国家经济 的国有成分迅速增长。过分或者必要的管理——束缚着私营部门。商人遭受着 30 年以来从 未有过的审查。示威者抗议当前的银行业,就中国崛起来说,国家控制,而非经济自由主义 被当成新兴国家的典范。 For a world in desperate need of growth, this is the wrong direction to head in. Europe will never thrive until it frees up its markets. America will throttle its recovery unless it avoids over-regulation. China will not sustain its success unless it starts to liberalise. This is a crucial time to hang on to Margaret Thatcher?s central perception—that for countries to flourish, people need to push back against the advance of the state. What the world needs now is more Thatcherism, not less.

对于急需发展的世界来说,这不是正确的前进方向。不放开市场,欧洲永远也不会繁荣;不 减少不必要的监管,美国很难复苏;不实行经济自由化,中国的成功不会持久。现在到了贯 彻落实玛格丽特· 撒切尔中心观念的关键时刻——对于蓬勃发展的国家,人民需要对抗国家 势力的增长。世界要更广泛地推行撒切尔主义,而不是摒弃它。 Margaret Thatcher prepares for victory in the 1983 general election 玛格丽特· 撒切尔为 1983 年的选举胜利做准备。 As Margaret Roberts, a grocer's daughter, she checks the price and quality of goods in 1950s Dartford, where she is standing for election 上世纪五十年代杂货商的女儿玛格利特· 罗伯茨在达特福德检查商品的货物和质量, 她在那 里参选。 A jubilant wave as Mrs Thatcher, shown with husband Denis and son Mark, wins the 1979 general election for the Conservatives 撒切尔夫人高兴地挥手,她和丈夫丹尼斯和儿子马克在一起,她为保守党赢得了 1979 年的 大选。 Protests in Liverpool as unemployment rises to 2.16m in 1981 and Mrs Thatcher's popularity plummets 1981 年失业人数达到二百一十六万,利物浦发生了抗议活动,撒切尔夫人的人气大幅下跌 Inside 10 Downing Street, Mrs Thatcher worked long hours 唐宁街 10 号内部,撒切尔夫人工作了很长时间 A shared purpose: with American president Ronald Reagan in 1984 during the Cold War 共同目标:冷战期间和美国总统罗纳德· 里根在一起(1984 年) Antipathy towards integration during a European Economic Community summit in 1984 厌恶一体化,摄于 1984 年欧洲经济共同体峰会 The lady is not for turning: on a visit to British troops in Germany, four years after the Falklands War 不会改变的女人:马岛战争四年之后,检阅驻德国的英国军队 Mrs Thatcher wins a record third successive term in office as a result of the 1987 election victory 1987 年选举获胜,撒切尔夫人赢得三连任记录 Lampooned by puppet makers in the television series "Spitting Image" 木偶制作人在电视上搞的刺系列“一模一样” The thawing of relations with the Soviet Union: with Mikhail Gorbachev in 1990 和苏联的关系解冻,1990 年和米哈伊尔?戈尔巴乔夫在一起

As Baroness Thatcher at the state opening of Parliament in 2010 2010 年女男爵撒切尔出席 国会开幕大典

Economics focus 经济聚焦 Learning to like inflation 学会喜欢通胀 Higher inflation could help to rebalance China ’s economy 较高的通胀可助中国经济实现再平衡
CHINA ?S inflation rate has become one of the world?s most closely watched numbers. This week?s release showed that inflation rose to 4.9% in January, up from 1.5% a year earlier. The increase was smaller than expected, but has not quelled fears that as inflation creeps up the government will need to slam on the economic brakes. Some economists, however, believe that China should welcome higher inflation as a more effective way to rebalance its economy than a currency appreciation. 中国的通货膨胀率已成为全世界最受关注的数字之一。本周公布的数据表明,1 月份通胀率 为 4.9%,去年同期只有 1.5%。这一数字比预期要小,但并未平息人们对政府会因通胀爬升 而给经济踩急刹车的担忧。不过,一些经济学家认为,中国应该欢迎较高的通胀率,它可以 比货币升值更有效地使中国经济实现再平衡。 The recent surge in Chinese inflation has been driven mainly by food prices, but non-food inflation has also risen to 2.6%, its highest rate since the series began in 2001. Wages are increasing at a faster rate. For many years China?s large pool of surplus labour held average pay rises below the rate of productivity growth. But as fewer young people enter the workforce, wages are now rising faster than productivity. Arthur Kroeber of Dragonomics, a Beijing-based research firm, argues that if higher inflation reflects faster wage growth, this will help China, not hurt it. 中国近期通胀率升高主要是受食品价格推动,但非食品通胀率亦升高至 2.6%, 为 2001 年首 次发布数据以来的最高值。工资涨幅更快。多年来,巨大的劳动力储备使得中国平均工资增 长率一直不及生产率。 但随着进入劳动力市场的年轻人愈来愈少, 如今的工资增长速度已经 超过了生产率。北京研究机构龙洲经讯(Dragonomics )的葛艺豪(Arthur Kroeber )认为, 如果通胀率升高反映的是工资涨幅加快的话,那么对中国来说就是件好事,而不是坏事。 Economists brought up to believe inflation is always a bad thing will choke on the idea of welcoming more of it, but the truth is that China?s average inflation rate o f 2% over the past ten years has been unusually low for a developing country (see left-hand chart). The optimal inflation rate in an emerging economy is often higher than in the developed world because of something called the “Balassa-Samuelson effect”. As low-income countries catch up with richer ones, faster productivity growth in the tradable-goods sector pushes up wages. Since labour is mobile, this in turn leads to higher wages in the non-tradable sector, where productivity growth is slower, so prices rise faster than in rich countries. Moreover, some of the ways in which inflation is thought to be harmful to growth, such as discouraging saving and investment, hardly matter in China, where both look excessive. 欢迎更高的通胀——那些从一开始就被灌输通胀无论怎样都是件坏事的经济学家定会对这

样的观点惊得目瞪口呆。但实际情况是,中国在过去十年中的平均通胀率只有 2%,在发展 中国家中显得不同寻常地低 (见左图) 。 拜所谓的“巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应” (Balassa-Samuelson effect)所赐,新兴经济体的最优通胀率通常要高于发达世界。在低收入国家赶超富裕国家 的过程中,贸易部门的生产率增长较快,工资也会因此提高。而劳动力是可流动的,于是生 产率增长较慢的非贸易部门的工资也随之升高了, 从而物价就会以比发达国家更快的速度增 长。此外,一些通常认为的通胀对经济增长的不利影响,比如导致储蓄和投资下降,并没有 困扰中国,反而双双出现了过剩。 Indeed, a bit more inflation could help to rebalance China?s lopsided economy. Its biggest imbalance is too little consumption, largely because wages have fallen as a share of national income. When wages rise more slowly than productivity, an economy produces more than it can consume, resulting in a current-account surplus. If wages now outpace productivity, workers? share of the cake will rise, boosting consumption and helping to reduce China?s external surplus. 事实上,通胀率略有提高能够帮助中国经济实现再平衡。中国的最大不平衡在于消费不振, 主要原因是工资占国民收入的份额在减少。 只要工资增长赶不上生产率, 经济中的产出就会 多于消费,从而出现经常项目盈余。如果工资能够以比生产率更快的速度增长,工人分得的 蛋糕就会更大,消费就能得到提振,外部盈余就会有所减少。 Wage-driven inflation would also help to narrow China?s trade surplus by pushing up the price of its exports. Conventional wisdom says that a stronger yuan would reduce China?s current-account surplus. Yet the empirical support for this is weak. In a paper published in 2009, Menzie Chinn of the University of Wisconsin and Shang-Jin Wei of Columbia University examined more than 170 countries over the period 1971-2005*, and found little evidence that countries with flexible exchange rates reduced their current-account imbalances more quickly than countries with more rigid regimes. 工资推动型通胀还能提高出口品的价格,从而有助于中国减小贸易盈余。传统智慧认为,人 民币升值会削弱中国经常项目盈余。 但这一观点并没有多少实证证据支持。 威斯康辛大学的 陈庚辛和哥伦比亚大学的魏尚进在 2009 年的一篇论文中考察了 1971~2005 年间 170 余个国 家, 发现很少有证据能够证明汇率弹性较大的国家能够比汇率机制僵化的国家更快地减少经 常项目不平衡。 In adjusting current accounts, what matters is the real exchange rate (which takes account of relative inflation rates at home and abroad). Movements in nominal exchange rates often do not achieve the desired adjustment in real rates because they may be offset by changing domestic prices. For example, the yen?s trade-weighted value is around 150% stronger than it was in 1985. Yet Japan?s current-account surplus remains big because that appreciation has been largely offset by a fall in domestic Japanese wholesale prices, so exporters remain competitive. 在调节经常项目这一点上,起作用的是真实汇率(需要考虑国内和国外的相对通胀率) 。名 义汇率的调整通常无法使真实汇率调整到合意水平,因为其作用会被国内价格的变动所抵 消。比如,日元贸易加权汇率自 1985 年以来升值了 150%,但日本的经常项目盈余依然很 高, 因为升值的效果绝大部分被日本国内批发价格下降所抵消了, 因此日本出口商的竞争力 并未受损。 An alternative way to lift a real exchange rate is through higher inflation than abroad. To an

American buyer, a 5% increase in the yuan price of Chinese exports is the same as a 5% appreciation of the yuan against the dollar. Mr Kroeber argues that rebalancing the economy by running an inflation rate of 4-6% would be preferable to either a sharp increase in the yuan, which could cause big job losses in export firms, or a gradual appreciation which attracted large speculative capital inflows, as happened in 2005-08. Inflation is already playing the bigger role. The yuan has risen by only 4% against the dollar since early 2009, yet, according to calculations by The Economist, the yuan?s real exchange rate against the dollar (measured using unit labour costs in industry) has strengthened by 17% (see right-hand chart), because costs in China are rising much faster than in America. 另一条提高真实汇率之路是让国内通胀率高于国外。 对美国进口商来说, 中国出口品的人民 币价格提高 5%和人民币对美元升值 5%并无区别。葛艺豪指出,用维持 4~6%的通胀率来使 中国经济达到再平衡要比人民币一次性大幅升值和逐渐升值都好。 如果人民币一次性大幅升 值,将造成出口企业大量裁员。如果人民币逐渐升值,又会如 2005~2008 年那样吸引大量投 机资本流入。通胀在改变真实汇率方面的作用已经有所提高了。自 2009 年年初以来,人民 币对美元只升值了 4%,但根据本刊的计算,人民币对美元真实汇率(以单位工业劳动力成 本衡量)升值幅度高达 17%(见右图) ,因为中国劳动成本增长远快于美国。 The runaway risk 失控风险 What about the risk that inflation could get out of control, as in Latin America in the 1980s and 1990s or in China itself in 1989, when an inflation rate of over 25% triggered unrest? Runaway inflation is usually the result of fiscal excess, financed by printing money, or rigid labour markets, which produce a wage-price spiral that the central bank fails to stop. Unlike Latin America in the past, China has a record of fiscal prudence and trade unions are docile. Its labour market is much more flexible than in the late 1980s, when most workers were in the state sector. 出现通胀失控的风险又有多高?这一情形曾在上世纪 80 和 90 年代在拉美发生过,在 1989 年的中国也发生过(当时通胀率达到了 25%,敏感词敏感词敏感词) 。引起失控风险的原因 通常是财政支出过度以至于不得不以印钱的方式融资; 或是劳动力市场僵化以至于央行无法 阻止工资-价格螺旋。中国与过去的拉美不同,在财政纪律方面有着良好的记录,工会组织 也很和谐。中国劳动力市场的灵活性也要比绝大部分工人都在国有部门上班的 20 世纪 80 年代有了很大提升。 China is more like Japan and South Korea during their eras of rapid growth than any Latin American country. Over 15-year periods ending in Japan in 1972 and South Korea in 1996, GDP growth averaged around 9% a year and inflation averaged 5-6% without it accelerating out of control. China?s government cannot be complacent about rising prices. It should anchor expectations by setting an explicit inflation target. Interest rates on bank deposits need to be raised in line with inflation to encourage households to keep their money in the bank rather than speculate in property or shares. Otherwise negative real interest rates will inflate asset bubbles. That implies China still needs a more flexible exchange rate so it can lift interest rates while those in America remain low. But a bit more inflation would be welcome as well. 中国的情形更像是日本和韩国的快速增长时代,而不是拉美。日本在 1972 年之前、韩国在 1996 年之前都经历了超过 15 年的高增长阶段,GDP 平均增长率在 9%左右。两国的平均通 胀率保持在 5~6% , 并没有加速到失控的程度。 中国政府当然不能满不在乎地坐视物价上涨。 中国需要设置一个明确的通胀目标以稳定预期。 银行存款利率应随通胀的升高而升高, 以促

使家庭将钱存入银行,而不是投入房市和股市进行投机,否则负真实利率会吹起资产泡沫。 这意味着中国还需要一个更为灵活的汇率机制, 从而能够在美国维持低利率时升息。 但略有 提高的通胀率对于中国来说也是值得欢迎的。

The canon of economics 经济学经典
The best journal in the discipline picks its best papers 最佳学术期刊选出最佳论文 ONE hundred years ago, in March 1911, the American Economic Review (AER) published its first article—on irrigation in the “sun-blistered” deserts of the western United States. The article described how the “fervid suns of May and June” melted “vast beds of snow and ice”, so that “springs and torrents rush down to the lowlands” and “the rivers overflow their banks”. 一百年前的 1911 年 3 月, 《美国经济评论》 (American Economic Review) 登出了第一篇文章, 内容是关于美国西部被太阳晒到起泡的沙漠的灌溉的。 文章描绘了“五六月的骄阳”如何融化 了“巨大的冰雪床”,以至于“泉水和溪流朝低地奔腾而下”,“河水漫过了堤岸 ”。 It is fair to say that the journal?s prose style has rushed downhill since t hose first lyrical pages. But if the AER?s opening article ranks among the best -written in the review?s history, it does not rank among the best. To mark its centenary issue, the journal asked six eminent economists to trawl through the thousands of papers that followed and pick the top 20. The results, with links to all 20 papers, are available online.* 平心而论,除了开头几页的抒情文字, 《美国经济评论》的文风就江河日下了。但开山之文 尽管文采斐然,可列《美国经济评论》百年翘楚,其质量却称不上出类拔萃。在标志其跨越 百年的最新一期中, 《美国经济评论》邀请了六位著名经济学家从数千篇文章中遴选出最好 的 20 篇。遴选结果与所有 20 篇文章的链接已公布在网上。 The links are worth clicking on. Many of these papers are more cited than read. They are known not by their full titles, but by the author-and-date shorthand (Modigliani and Miller, 1958; Friedman, 1968; Diamond and Mirrlees, 1971) used in references. Reading them in the original yields some pleasing rediscoveries. 这些链接值得点击。其中许多篇被引用的次数甚至比阅读的次数还要多。它们的作者-日期 简称(Modigliani and Miller, 1958; Friedman, 1968; Diamond and Mirrlees, 1971 ,用于参考文 献中)比标题更出名。阅读原始文献能重新发现一些颇有兴味的东西。 Unsurprisingly, the list includes the 1955 paper by Simon Kuznets explaining why inequality might first rise then fall in the course of economic development. Surprisingly, nowhere in the paper did he actually draw the “Kuznets curve” that is now inseparable from his name. (He described the arc of inequality as a “long swing” instead.) Robert Mundell?s 1961 theory of “optimum currency areas”, which lays out the conditions for a workable currency union, is now often cited by the euro?s critics. Ironic, therefore, to note that Mr Mundell wrote the paper to show why flexible exchange rates were impractical because many nations are not optimal currency areas

either. Should every local “pocket of unemployment” have a “separate currency”, he snorted. 西蒙?库兹涅茨 1955 年解释为何不平等程度会随着经济发展先上升后下降的论文也在 20 佳 之列,这毫不令人意外。令人意外的是,已与作者密不可分的 “库兹涅茨曲线”其实并没有出 现在这篇论文中。 (他将不平等程度曲线描述为“长波”。 )罗伯特 ?蒙代尔 1961 年提出的“最 优货币区”理论给出了货币联盟可能成立的情形,如今经常被欧元批评者引用。这显得有些 滑稽, 因为他的这篇论文本是论证在许多国家根本不是最优货币区的情况下, 灵活的汇率是 如何不切实际的。蒙代尔不屑的哼道,每个“失业率不同”的地方都应该有“单独的货币”。 With one or two exceptions, the chosen papers convey an impression of economics as a tidy, coherent discipline. The subjects covered are traditional: consumption, tax, currencies, inflation, that sort of thing. There are no excursions into sumo 相扑 or intestinal worms. The furthest off-piste they go is Anne Krueger?s 1974 ar ticle on rent-seeking, explaining why people may lobby for governments to distort the economy. 除了一两个例外,入选的文章让人们感觉经济学是一门井然有序、讲究逻辑的学科。20 佳 论文的主题均是诸如消费、税收、货币、通胀之类的传统领域。没有一篇论文是关于相扑、 蛔虫之类与经济学风马牛不相及的东西的。 离题最远的一篇论文是安妮?克鲁格 1974 年关于 寻租的文章。在这篇文章解释了为何人们会游说政府去干扭曲经济的事。 The papers are not bereft of whimsy, but it is confined to footnotes and asides. A 1972 paper by Armen Alchian and Harold Demsetz, for example, describes how the firm evolved as an organisational form to prevent shirking in team production. A footnote explains why sportsmen do not shirk enough, overinvesting in their skills. (Teams care about coming top, as much as they care about being good, so if teams collectively agreed to lower their standards, they could achieve the same league rankings with less effort.) The two economists also explain why professors get away with “turpitudinal peccadillos” like stealing office stationery. 入选论文中不乏奇思怪想,但只限于脚注和旁白。比如,阿曼 ?阿尔钦和哈罗德 ?登姆塞茨在 1972 年的一篇论文中描述了企业是如何作为一种防止团队生产中的偷懒现象的组织形式演 化的。其中的一个脚注解释了为什么运动员不会偷懒,而是孜孜不倦地提升技艺。 (对一支 运动队来说,优秀程度并不比名次更重要,因此如果运动队集体决定降低标准的话,他们是 可以以更少的付出获得相同的联赛名次的。 )阿尔钦和登姆塞茨还解释了教授偷取办公文具 之类的“卑劣小伎俩”为何可以逍遥法外。 This consensus on the proper subject of economics also extends to method. The chosen economists mostly go about their business in a consistent way, refining, extending or occasionally bending a shared framework of analysis. Some of them make their colleagues? lives easier by suggesting convenient tricks and techniques to make a theory testable (such as the consumer-demand equations set out in 1980 by Angus Deaton and John Muellbauer), to make a notion easy to model (see the 1977 paper by Avinash Dixit and Joseph Stiglitz on differentiated products and increasing returns to scale) or both (the production function pioneered in 1928 by Charles Cobb and the inimitable Paul Douglas). 入选论文不仅主题集中于传统经济学领域, 使用的方法也是如此。 入选的经济学家绝大多数 以一以贯之的方式做学问,在常规的分析框架下进行改进和扩展,偶尔也会另辟蹊径。其中 一些人发展出了方便的技巧和方法,或是使理论变得可验证(比如安格斯?迪顿和约翰 ?米尔 鲍尔 1980 年给出的消费者需求方程组) ,或是让概念更容易被建模(见阿维纳什?迪克西特

和约瑟夫?斯蒂格利茨 1977 年关于差异产品和规模报酬递增的论文) ,或是两者皆是(查尔 斯?柯布和无与伦比的保罗 ?道格拉斯 1928 年在生产函数上所做的先驱性工作) ,从而为同侪 提供了极大的便利。 Several papers spot a real-world phenomenon that sits uneasily with the discipline?s ruling assumptions. Why do people in developing countries leave undermanned farms to languish in urban unemployment, for example? The papers then show that one or two tweaks to the assumptions can bring the problem to heel— in this instance, the artificially high wages paid by city jobs offset the smaller chance of landing one. 不少论文直指经济学基本假设难以处理的真实世界。 比如, 为何发展中国家的人民要离开人 手不足的农村,到城市里去经受失业的折磨?有几篇论文显示,只要假设稍作改动,就能轻 松解决问题。 刚才这个问题答案是城市工作岗位的工资被人为限定在较高水平, 补偿了在城 市立足的高难度。
Thirty-somethings 三十余年来 ……

The most recent entry to the top 20 is Robert Shiller?s 1981 paper documenting the excessive volatility of stock prices. Nothing else in the past 30 years made the cut —even though submissions to the AER have swelled in that time and its acceptance rate has plunged. Douglas Bernheim, one of the six pop-pickers, says that each of them would probably have inc luded “at least a couple of more recent papers” on their list. “But as we move from o lder to younger papers, assessments vary more from person to person.” 在 20 佳论文中,最为晚近的一篇是罗伯特?希勒 1981 年关于股价过度波动的论文。过去 30 年来, 《美国经济评论》的投稿数量有了很大增长,退稿率也大大提高了,但却没有一篇论 文能够入围 20 佳。六名遴选者之一的道格拉斯?伯恩海姆(Douglas Bernheim)说,也许他 们六个人每人都“至少选了两三篇近期论文”,“ 但随着我们的目光从老论文转向新论文,我 们彼此之间的判断出现了越来越大的差异。” Why is this? Mr Bernheim points out that younger papers are less time-tested. Economists can only forecast their worth, and these forecasts are rarely convincing enough to supplant one of the proven classics on the list. According to this view, some recent papers will eventually earn broad admiration. It is simply a question of time. 这是为什么呢?伯恩海姆指出, 新论文所经受的时间检验不够充分。 经济学家们只能预测它 们的价值,但光凭预测很难令人信服地取代榜单中已被证明了的经典论文。根据这一观点, 一些新文章最终会赢得广泛赞誉。这只是时间问题。 But perhaps it is also a question of the times. Economics has fragmented in the past 15-20 years, both in subject and technique. No aspect of human behaviour is off-limits and a miscellany of methods are in vogue, adding laboratory experiments, randomised trials and computer simulations to the traditionalist?s blackboard and chalk. Many of the brightest stars in economics parade their scepticism, insisting on how little economists really know (or indeed how little real economics they know). The discipline is more exciting, ingenious and intrepid as a result. But it is also unruly and untidy. Some economists are still patiently adding to a cairn of knowledge. Many are throwing rocks.

但这很有可能也是时代问题。 过去 15~20 年来, 经济学从主题到方法都出现了越来越细的分 化。经济学已经涉及到人类行为的方方面面,多种方法混用也在风靡一时,不再局限于传统 的黑板+粉笔,实验室实验、随机试验和计算机模拟都被用到了经济学研究中。不少明星经 济学家喜欢标榜怀疑精神, 大谈经济学家事实上是如何无知 (或者对真正的经济学实在是所 知甚少) 。结果,经济学变得比以前更令人振奋、更灵光闪现、更勇往直前,也变得凌乱无 序、缺乏章法。有些经济学家仍在循规蹈矩稳步向前,不少人则是在信马由缰。 It is harder than ever to keep abreast of progress. After running four issues a year for the past 100 years, the AER will this year publish six. The journal has already produced four specialised offshoots. Economics is producing a torrent of research, coursing in all directions. The rivers have overflowed their banks. 如今,时刻保持在最前沿已经相当困难了。过去 100 年来, 《美国经济评论》每年只出版四 期,但今年将增加至六期。 《美国经济评论》已经创造了四大专业分支。经济学正在创造无 孔不入的研究洪流。河水已经漫过了堤岸 Entrepreneurs in America 在美国打拼的企业家

Who creates jobs? 谁创造了就业机会?
Immigrants do 答案是:移民企业家。

SHAYAN ZADEH, the co- founder of Zoosk, a popular online-dating service based in San Francisco, is worried. In the current debate on immigration, few realise t hat foreign- born entrepreneurs create jobs for locals. “It?s a real public -relations problem,” bemoans Mr Zadeh, who came to the country as a student from Iran and worked at Microsoft before establishing his own firm, which now employs almost 150 people. Zoosk 是旧金山一个颇具人气的约会网站, 不过网站创始人之一 Shayan Zadeh 最 近很是忧心忡忡。 现在很多人都在讨论移民问题, 但极少人会注意到这么个事实: 外国企业家为美国本地人创造了很多就业机会。 Zadeh 叹着气说: “这还真是一 个公共关系问题。 ”Zadeh 在学生时期就从伊朗来到了美国,效力于微软,此后 建立了自己的公司。如今公司已发展到约 150 名雇员的规模。 On May 2nd Innovate for America, the new brainchild of Scott Sandell, a ve nture capitalist, launched a plan to get American firms with at least one immigrant founder to publicise the number of people they have hired in America. Some 40 companies, including Zoosk, BloomReach, a start- up that analyses data to help firms maximise online revenues, and QBotix, a robot- maker, have already signed up. 投机资本家 Scott Sandell 最新创办了一个名为 “创新美国 ”的网站。5 月 2 日,该 网站推出了一项计划, 旨在让至少有一名移民创始人的美国公司公布他们的美国 员工的数量。包括 Zoosk、BloomReach(一家通过分析数据帮助企业实现在线收 益最大化的初创公司)和 QBotix(机器人制造商)等在内的 40 家公司都已加入 该计划,成为计划的组织成员。 At innovateforamerica.org, companies can submit the number of jobs they have added

since their launch. They can also show support for the group?s aims by downloading a widget, or tiny piece of portable code. Once installed, this displays an icon on their websites showing the total number of jobs the group?s members have collectively created in America. The figure will be updated as new firms join and existing ones add workers. Mr Sandell says he is talking to auditors about verifying the data regularly to ensure they are robust. 各公司可在 innovateforamerica.org 上公布成立至今所创造的就业岗位数量。 为表 示对组织目标的贡献,各公司还可下载一个窗口小部件或一小段可移植代码。该 程序安装后,公司网站上便会出现一个图标,显示组织成员在美国一共创造了多 少就业岗位。一旦有新的公司加入组织,或成员公司雇佣了新员工,图标上的数 字都会随之更新。Sandell 表示,他目前正在与审计人员就数据的定期核对进行 沟通,以确保数据的真实性。 To get the initiative off the ground, he and his colleagues have recruited smallish firms, many of which they have invested in. That explains why the total number of jobs showcased on the widget at launch is a mere 3,700 or so. But they are hoping many other start-ups—and behemoths with at least one foreign-born founder, such as Google and Yahoo—will sign up too, quickly boosting the total. 为了让这个创意 “飞起来 ”,Sandell 和他的同事们将一些他们有参与投资的小公 司吸收进组织中。 这就是为什么统计小部件刚刚启用时显示的岗位数量只有区区 3700 个左右。不过,他们希望能有更多初创公司和像谷歌雅虎这样至少拥有一 位外国创始人的巨头加入到计划中,这么一来,统计数字就会大大上升。 Their site urges immigrant entrepreneurs to post their personal stories. It also asks those who were refused visas to highlight the number of jobs they have gone on to create elsewhere. 此外,“创新美国 ”网站还鼓励移民企业家把自己的奋斗史贴上来,并请那些曾经 被拒签的企业家重点标出他们在别处创造的岗位数量。 Innovate for America may initially attract less attention than FWD.us, a pressure group recently launched by Mark Zuckerberg, the boss of Facebook, and other prominent Silicon Valley types to lobby on immigration and other issues. But if its widget spreads, it could invigorate a debate that is vital to America?s future prosperity. 脸谱网站 的老板 扎克 伯格与 其他硅 谷的优 秀人士 近来 成立了 白宫游 说组织 FWD.us,致力于移民和其他问题的游说。和这个组织相比, “创新美国 ”网站正 处于蹒跚学步的时期,吸引力或许还不够大。不过,若新推出的窗口小部件得到 普遍运用,一场关乎美国未来兴衰的讨论也不远了。


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