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《The Economist》《经济学人》中文版
Translated From 《The Economist》,By ecocn team http://www.ecocn.org
hello42008-12-31感谢电脑爱好者的投递
为什么我的MSN总莫名其妙弹出来一些广告?网友朱朱在“百度知道”、“雅虎知识堂”中都发了悬赏帖,可到现在她

得到的那些答案和解决方法统统不管用,最后找到了《电脑爱好者》。记者随后询问了一些用MSN的朋友,回答也收到过这样“骚扰”广告的占到100%。“特别是最近,总是收到某三国WebGame(网页游戏)的广告,后面还跟着一个链接,点了以后就到了该网游的注册页面。奇怪的是,MSN显示我的这个好友是离线的状态”,公关公司的王小姐对记者说。直觉告诉我们,这些MSN账号可能已经被黑客盗取?长久以来,我们听过不少盗取QQ账号谋利的事情,可很少听说谁会盗取MSN账号的,因为MSN似乎没有什么谋利点。此番MSN盗号,背后有什么玄机呢?

MSN弹出广告背后
“想知道你的MSN好友里谁屏蔽了你吗?”后面跟着一个链接,表示点进去就可以查到。曾经点击过这个链接的网友对记者说,这个链接根本打不开,但点了之后,她的好友就经常会收到来自于她发出的这个信息了。由此看来,真的是中毒了,但凭多年市场推广的经验,美国捷思锐科技市场经理张东告诉记者,近段时间“流行”的内容为某网游宣传推广的MSN消息却没有这么简单。

“无需下载,打开网页,即可轻松游戏。http://haida8.com?=……”对网络营销颇有研究的胜天互联总裁赵江表示,这很显然是一种“病毒式营销”,各种邮件、博客、社区、视频分享网站都能见到,在网络上早就不是什么新鲜事了。那该网游为什么要用这样“骚扰”性,且带有病毒倾向的推广方式进行营销呢?该网游运营部经理表示,目前公司共有40多个合作商,而通过MSN发送链接可能是个别合作商为游戏所做的推广,但具体原因公司仍未了解。

病毒营销牵扯利益链
进入这款网游,记者找到了一篇关于招募游戏推广员的活动启事,其中写道:“我们为您量身定制了相应的推广方式和更有吸引力的利益分配模式。无论您在网吧、家里、办公室、宿舍,您都可以通过该系统实实在在的网上赚钱,享受边玩游戏边赚钱的乐趣。您需要做的仅仅是把这款游戏,通过网络、论坛、邮件、博客、MSN、QQ等介绍给和您一样喜爱游戏的朋友、同学、同事或其他玩家。那么,您就拥有了这个创业赚钱的大好机会。”

记者随后致电了该游戏平台的客服,据她介绍,申请推广员之后,会得到一个链接,这个链接的前半部分是游戏的注册页网址,而在后面会跟一个推广代码,每个推广员的都不同。当推广员把这个有着自己推广代码的链接发给朋友后,只要朋友点击,便可进入游戏注册页,同时,在游戏的推广后台会识别出这个人是经由某位推广员介绍进入游戏的。而一旦这个进入的新人成为玩家,并为游戏花钱,推广员就可以得到提成。

一位该网游的老玩家表示,细算下来,他在这款网游中平均每月消费在50元~100元之间,还属于中低消费人群。他的朋友中,在一个区开服几天就充值几百上千元的不在少数。记者在网上搜索了一下,发现这个推广手法被不少游戏所采用,推广员的提成在10%~20%不等。记者粗略地算了一笔账,假设一个推广员一天成功发展5位新玩家,一个月就将推广150位新玩家,假设这些玩家每月人均消费额为50元,那么推广员每月就能得到50元×15人×15%=1125元的提成。除此以外,推广员后台还有一套统计积分级别的规则,只要推广员达到某个级别(例如50级),则提成会升为40%,每月将拿到3000元!这样一来,推广员不仅能从新发展的玩家身上挣钱,原来发展的那些玩家,由于不停的游戏,也能给推广员带来不少收益。

MSN盗号技术门槛低
现在,我们明确了通过推广网游谋利的事实,那这件事又是如何同MSN弹出消息挂上钩的呢?计算机世界传媒集团友答网技术经理王华侨从技术层面为记者分析说,虽然这种现象很像之前的“QQ尾巴”病毒,但还不是一回事。.NET软件开发工程师郑浩宇同意这种说法,他说:“用户极有是在某些SNS网站上,邀请MSN好友加入时,泄露了自己MSN帐号和密码。”

喜欢泡在校内网、开心网等SNS网站上的网友一定对邀请MSN好友、QQ好友加入这个功能不陌生,只要输入自己MSN或QQ的账号和密码,邀请就会自动送达好友处。但是SNS网站都会承诺不保存这些隐私信息的呀,难道是骗人的?校内网技术人员在接受记者采访时表示,校内是用微软公开的、支持的API方式,获取用户的好友的,不会记录用户的密码。但据记者了解,微软是前不久才进一步开放了MSN的相关API的。(API,即应用程序标准接口,是应用程序调用系统功能的接口,在它的下面是Windows的操作系统核心,而它的上面则是所有的Windows应用程序。通俗的说,它是基于硬件功能而制定的一套规则,开发者在开发应用程序的时候,必须要遵照这个规则,以便硬件能执行他们开发出来的应用程序给出的指令。)

郑浩宇指出,微软这一做法是为了使这些网站可以通过MSN聚拢更多人气,而在开放这个API前,也有一些网站使用了其他方法,达到相同效果,这就是利用MSN机器人。“当你在某些SNS网站邀请MSN好有时,如果你同时正在MSN上,你会发现你的MSN会掉线,这是因为MSN机器人用你给的账号和密码,登录了你的MSN,向你的好友发邀请。并且在这之后,无论你的账号和密码有多么复杂,都会被记录。”事实上,由机器人登录MSN这种方式非常不安全,这时账号和密码是以明文的方式传递,极容易被捕获。“捕获的技术门槛很低,网上有现成的软件可以下载。”他说。可以想见,由于网游推广的诱人利润,一些推广员会利用这个手法来谋利。

王华侨补充说道,相对来说,QQ因为API不开放,所以现在感觉类似的广告信息少一些,但也不排除在将来会出现类似情况。微软方面对此表示,希望用户尽量不要在第三方网站登录网页版MSN。业内人士分析说,推广员瞄中MSN可能有几个原因,一是MSN本身是一种成本很低的营销平台;二是网络上研究获取MSN账号和密码的手段比较多,也比较成熟,即使推广员本身的技术水平不高也可以做到;三是,目前喜欢上SNS网站的用户以白领为主,而相对来说,这些人是WebGame的主流消费人群。

网游传销何时休
目标软件的一位市场人员告诉记者:“我认识一些推广员,不隶属于任何公司,兼做好几款游戏的推广,一个推不成就推另一个。”尽管这样,据他所知,能赚着大钱的推广员很少,“这个行业没什么门槛,也不是很正规,刷IP,做假人数等手法以前都出现过。游戏好的话还能挣点,但毕竟不是什么时候都有那么牛的游戏可以推的。”

一家网络游戏推广工作室的不愿透露姓名的负责人表示,从2006年开始这种发展下线拿提成的营销手段几乎与传销无异,但其带来的效果却非常明显。如今,这种销售模式已经被其他网游运营商竞相模仿,即便是网易、九城、巨人等国内知名厂商也不例外。而目前,法律方面对此的监管方式还是空白,网游产业已经进入恶性循环的“传销时代”。一些业内人士认为,这种非理性的竞争手段显露出国内网游市场已经饱和。

到底谁应该来为MSN频遭广告轰炸负责?经过一番采访,记者尤感尴尬,似乎各方都表示这是个别的推广员的个人行为。但我想,如果SNS网站不是只顾自己“网站兴隆”,而是能够多为用户考虑周到一些,避免泄露用户隐私并不是难事。同时,网游企业也能在推广方面少一些“搏一搏”的投机心理,沉下心来深耕细作,尽量避免产生负面影响而对整个行业造成伤害。要知道,推广制胜在本质上是产品制胜啊。

发表于17:23 | 阅读全文 | 评论 0 | 编辑 | 分享 0警惕中国大陆的怀柔术2008-11-15[2008.11.10] Resisting China's charm offensive:警惕中国大陆的怀柔术
Taiwan and China
台湾与中国大陆

Resisting China's charm offensive
警惕中国大陆的怀柔术

Nov 6th 2008 | TAIPEI From The Economist print edition


Rather than bringing unification closer, new economic ties solidify the status quo
中国大陆并未急于立刻统一,仅以新经济纽带拴紧现状
AFP

1.
CHIANG PIN-KUNG, who heads the Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF), the body through which Taiwan talks to China, called it “a key moment” and a “win-win economic situation”. The arrival in Taiwan on November 3rd of his mainland Chinese counterpart, Chen Yunlin, offered a ray of hope for the island’s faltering economy. Mr Chen, the highest-ranking visitor from China since the end of the civil war in 1949, came to sign a slew of business agreements. But for Taiwan’s president, Ma Ying-jeou, the visit was a gamble.

海基会(负责台湾与中国大陆开展对话的机构)主席江丙坤称此次两岸对话是"有利益于双方经济形势"的"历史性时刻".与江丙坤率领的台湾海基会相对应的大陆海协会会长陈云林赴台湾一行给台湾迟滞不前的经济带来了一线生机.陈云林是自1949年内战结束以来,大陆访台官员中级别最高的一位。他此番将与台湾就一系列事务签署协议.对台湾"总统"马英九来说,此次访问就像是一场赌博.

2.
Supporters of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) dogged Mr Chen’s footsteps, with protests accusing Mr Ma of selling out to the Chinese. Thousands of police were deployed to control the demonstrators, but failed to stop them besieging Mr Chen during a banquet in Taipei. His meeting with Mr Ma was rescheduled to fox protesters. Last month Mr Chen’s deputy was assaulted by DPP activists in southern Taiwan. The DPP’s traditional support for formal independence helps explain China’s fondness for Mr Ma, of the Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang. Since he succeeded the DPP’s Chen Shui-bian in May, China has oozed charm.

民进党支持者对陈云林的行程进行了全程追踪,同时抗议马英九"投叛大陆"(背叛台湾)。上千名警员被派遣出来对游行者的活动加以控制,但仍然没能阻止他们将台北设宴款待陈云林一行的酒店团团围住。为了避开抗议者的耳目,"陈马会"的时间安排做出了调整.上个月,陈云林的副手在台南就曾经遭到民进党激进分子的袭击.民进党一贯台独主张乃是中国大陆与国民党交好的主要原因,从马英九五月接替民进党的陈水扁以来,大陆就对其百般示好.

3.
The latest agreements offer more substantial business ties than ever before. Most eye-catching is a big expansion of direct transport links. A new direct air route, avoiding Hong Kong’s airspace, will reduce travel time from Taiwan to Shanghai by over an hour, and save an estimated 40- 50% in fuel costs. Passenger charter flights, at present limited to 36 round-trips each weekend, are to become daily and increase to 108 a week. The number of flight destinations in China will increase to 21 from five, and there will be 60 round-trip charter cargo flights each month. There will also be new direct sea links, with 11 ports in Taiwan and 63 in China open to ships from the other side.

最新签署的协议促成可双方更坚实的商业纽带.最引人注目的要属直达交通航道以前所未有的规模开辟.一条新的直达航空线路使从台湾到上海无须再取道香港,所需时间也缩短了一个多小时,还能节省大约40-50%的燃油花费.客机包机将由仅周末开放改为每天开放,往返次数由每周末36次增至每周总共108次.到达中国大陆的航班种类将由5种增至21种,货运往返航班每个月增加60趟.同时还会开辟新的海上航线,届时台湾将有11个港口,大陆将有63个港口面向彼此开放.

4.
All this should delight Taiwan’s businesses, which have long pushed for direct links. The government estimates that they have invested over $150 billion in China. But the absence of direct links marginalises Taiwan from global supply chains. Wang Lee-rong, of the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, a semi-official think-tank, insists the agreements “are not only symbolic, but will have real impact.” They might help not just Taiwan and China, she says, but the regional economy as a whole. This appeals to Mr Ma at a time when his popularity is slumping, as Taiwan is battered by global financial turmoil.

上述内容将得到台湾商业的欢心,因为他们一直都在力促开辟直达航线.据台湾政府统计,台商在大陆的投资额超过1500亿美圆.来自半官方性质的智库中华经济研究院的Wang Lee-rong坚持认为这些协议"不仅具有代表性,而将带来实质性的影响."王认为这些协议不仅能够促进台湾和大陆的发展,还对整个区域性经济也有积极作用.这席话打动了因台湾受到金融海啸袭击而支持率骤跌的马英九.

5.
Despite the protests against Mr Chen’s visit, Andrew Yang, of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies, a think-tank, says most Taiwanese do not see the agreements as surrender to China. Mr Ma’s standing, he argues, depends on whether they can actually revitalise the economy. If global turmoil continues to drag down Taiwan’s economy, he says, it may stay in the doldrums.

尽管陈云林访台遭到抗议, 但是台湾中国高等政策研究会秘书长杨念祖称大多数台湾人不认为这些协议意味着对大陆屈服.他认为马英九的立场落在这些协议能否切实地对台湾经济带来复苏.如果持续受到全球金融海啸的影响,台湾经济将一蹶不振.

6.
For China, the economic accords form part of a broader push to burnish its image in Taiwan. It has even employed one of its traditional courtship rituals by offering a Taiwan zoo a pair of giant pandas—popular with the public, though the Chen administration turned down an earlier offer.

对大陆而言,经济合作为他们进一步在台湾提升形象做出了铺垫.大陆甚至按照其传统礼节赠送了台湾一对大熊猫-----一种广受喜爱的动物,尽管早些时候陈水扁在执政期间回绝了这番好意.

7.
Despite the talk of warming ties, both sides have to walk on political eggshells. China cannot stomach anything that hints at separate statehood for Taiwan. So when he met Mr Ma on November 6th, Mr Chen could not bring himself to call him “president”. And Mr Ma, conscious that there is hardly any popular support in Taiwan for imminent unification with China, has also refrained from overtly political statements. Fudging the issue of Taiwan’s status, he has described its ties with China as “special relations between two regions”.

鉴于这一对话旨在改善两岸关系,双方对避开了政治敏感话题.大陆不能容许任何影射台湾是一个主权国家的行为,因此,在11月6日见到马英九时,陈云林没有称呼其为"总统".马英九也清楚当下台湾支持与大陆统一的人寥寥无几,于是也避免公开发表任何涉及政治的言论.他以"两个地区的特殊关系"这一表达搪塞了对台湾地位的定位.

8.
He has argued that setting political differences aside will allow the two sides to build mutual trust. This, he hopes, may even lead to broader negotiations on lowering political and military tensions, where, as he reminded Mr Chen, the two sides “have their differences and challenges”. This week Lai Shin-yuan, of Taiwan’s advisory Mainland Affairs Council, said she had urged Mr Chen in a closed-door meeting to remove China’s military threat. She did not reveal his response. But Mr Ma’s avowed goal of a peace treaty seems distant. It would depend on China’s removing the estimated 1,400 missiles it has pointing at Taiwan, which China would not agree to do without a big reciprocal concession from Taiwan. And, unlike the economic talks, which can be handled through notionally “non-governmental” bodies, it would require direct official talks, with all the headaches that would entail.

同时,马英九还称抛开政治问题,两岸是可以建立互信关系的.他还希望这能够推动更多缓和政治,经济紧张局势的谈判,在这些问题上,他曾提醒陈水扁"两岸存在分歧,也面临挑战".本周大陆事务委员会委员赖幸媛称她曾催促陈水扁召开内部会议商讨消除大陆的军事威胁.她没有公开陈水扁对此时的回应.马英九公开宣布的和平协议看上去似乎很遥远,这一协议要求大陆拆除面向台湾的约1400枚导弹,这点在没有得到双方就台湾问题的重大让步之前,大陆是不会答应的.并且这一对话不同于只需出动非官方名义的组织就能解决的经济和谈, 它需要两岸直接进行官方会谈,各种麻烦事也将接踵而来.

9.
China, however, may be content with this impasse. In recent years, even during Chen Shui-bian’s rule, Chinese officials have shown far greater willingness to leave Taiwan be, as long as it resists any formal declaration of independence. The accords on cross-strait transportation give China’s leaders a chance to show hardline nationalists that their tactics are working. With President Hu Jintao and the prime minister, Wen Jiabao, constitutionally required to step down in 2013, they may be more than happy to leave solving the Taiwan puzzle to their successors.

不过大陆方面也许是乐于保持这一僵持局面的.近些年来,即使在陈水扁执政的时代,大陆政府对台湾越来越听之任之,只要台湾不公然宣布独立就不予以干涉.横跨海峡的交通航线一打通,大陆的领导人也好对民族强硬派有个交代,向他们展示他们的策略正在产生效果.按照宪法,国家主席胡锦涛和总理温家宝将与2013年卸任,他们或许求之不得地想把解决台湾问题这个迷题留给他们的继任者.


文章内容不代表译者观点,讨论范围仅限于翻译技术层面.
发表于14:47 | 阅读全文 | 评论 8 | 编辑 | 分享 0日本商界:漫画偶像,商界楷模2008-08-20[2008.08.07]Take a leaf out of his book 漫画偶像,商界楷模
Business in Japan 日本商界
Take a leaf out of his book 漫画偶像,商界楷模

Aug 7th 2008
From The Economist print edition
Japanese bosses can learn from the country’s favourite businessman—even if he does not exist
从这位最受欢迎的商人身上,日本的老板们大有可学--尽管他并不真实存在

Kenshi Hirokane-Kodansha Ltd
弘兼宪史 讲谈社出品

YAMATO, the ancient name of Japan, essentially means “big harmony”. To achieve such balance, Japanese society has refined a plethora of cultural traits: humility, loyalty, respect and consensus. In the field of business, however, this often results in a lack of leaders who are willing to stand out from the crowd, promote themselves and act decisively. “The nail that sticks up gets hammered down” is a common Japanese refrain; “the hawk with talent hides his talons” is another. Whereas American and European bosses like to appear on the covers of global business magazines, their Japanese counterparts are comfortable in their obscurity. Business in Japan is generally run as a group endeavour.
大和,日本旧称,本意为“大同和谐”。为了达到这种平衡和谐,日本社会提炼出了诸多文化特点,有:谦逊、忠诚、尊重、共识。然而,在商界,这种平衡常常意味着领导缺位,没有人愿意脱颖而出,尽显锋芒,敢作敢当。日本有一句俗语,“枪打出头鸟”劝诫人们不要出风头,“有干将器,不露锋芒”也是一例。不同于欧美商人好在全球商业杂志封面上一展英姿,日本同仁更喜欢默默无闻。通常,日本的企业的成就都是得益于团队的努力。

Such democratic virtues served the country well in the post-war period. But today they hold too many Japanese firms back. Japan boasts some of the best companies in the world: Toyota, Canon and Nintendo are the envy of their industries. But they operate on a global scale and have tentatively embraced some unconsensual American methods. In much of the Japanese economy—especially its huge domestic services sector—managers are in something of a funk. Firms do not give promising youngsters responsibility early on, but allocate jobs by age. Unnecessarily long working hours are the norm, sapping productivity. And there are few women and foreigners in senior roles, which narrows the talent pool.
这样的民主主义作风在战后的日本是如鱼得水。而如今这种作风却阻碍了日本公司的发展。该国拥有不少世界顶级公司, 如丰田、佳能、任天堂等,都算的上是业界翘楚。这些公司业务遍布全球,而对接受打破均衡的美国方式却是心存疑虑。在绝大部分日本企业中,特别是庞大的国内服务业,经理们多少都有些诚惶诚恐。他们铁了心不会提早重用青年才俊,而是按年龄分配工作。加班本不必要,却成为常态,导致生产率受损。而在公司高层中,也鲜有女士、外国人,这也导致了人才匮乏。

So how pleasing it is to be able to report the success of a business leader who breaks the mould. Young, dynamic and clever, he is not afraid to push aside old, conservative know-nothings. He disdains corporate politics and promotes people based on merit rather than seniority. He can make mistakes (he got involved in a questionable takeover-defence scheme), but he is wildly popular with salarymen: his every move is chronicled weekly. In June he was given the top job at one of Japan’s biggest firms. Kosaku Shima of Hatsushiba Goyo Holdings has only one serious shortcoming: he is not a real person, but a manga, or cartoon, character (see article).
For many critics of Japan, that says it all: Mr Shima could exist only in fiction. In fact there is room for the country’s managers and even its politicians to learn from him.
可想而之,如果能有一位商界领导成功挣脱桎梏,将多让人兴奋。他年轻、聪明,充满活力,敢于让那些保守固执、思想僵化的老家伙靠边站。他对公司政治不屑一顾,超越年龄限制按才取人。他会犯错(卷入了问题重重的反并购案),但在员工中仍是大受欢迎:他的一举一动在员工周记中无一遗漏。六月,他成为了日本一家知名企业的高管。初芝电产株式会社的课长岛耕作只有一个致命缺点:他不是真人,而是个漫画人物。日本的批评家口径一致地说道:岛耕作只能是个想象中人。事实上,该国的经理们却有改进余地,甚至政客们都应该向岛耕作好好学学。

Most of the lessons are for Japan’s managers. At present, bosses rarely say what they think because it might disrupt the harmony, or be seen as immodest. Their subordinates are reluctant to challenge ideas because that would cause the boss to lose face. So daft strategies fester rather than getting culled quickly. There is little risk-taking or initiative. The crux of the problem is Japanese companies’ culture of consensus-based decision-making. Called nemawashi[1] (literally, “going around the roots”) or ringi (bottom-up decisions), it helped to establish an egalitarian workplace. In the 1980s Western management consultants cooed that it was the source of Japan’s competitive strength. Sometimes it can be, as in periods of crisis when an entire firm needs to accept new marching orders quickly. But most of the time it strangles a company.
最应该学习的还是那些日本经理们。时下,经理们都不敢直言不讳,恐破坏和谐气氛,落得个桀骜不驯之名。他们的下属更是不敢提出异议,恐怕老板颜面不保。故此,低劣战略腐坏流脓,不见有人开刀剔除。冒险,首创更是无从谈起。问题的症结就在于日企的共识决策文化。名为"根回"(字面意思为:绕着根部进行)(自下而上的决策)的文化旨在营造平等工作氛围。上世纪八十年代,西方的管理顾问将其奉为日本竞争力的源泉。在全公司需要快速接受全新运行规则,面对危机之时,此种文化不无道理。但大多时候,这一文化却是将公司束缚得几近窒息。

Relying on consensus means that decisions are made slowly, if at all. With so many people to please, the result is often a mediocre morass of compromises. And with so many hands involved, there is no accountability; no reason for individuals to excel; no sanction against bad decisions so that there are fewer of them in future. Of course, sometimes the consensus of the Japanese workplace is just a veneer and decisions are still made from on high. But then why persist with the pretence, particularly if it drains a company’s efficiency?
倚仗共识就意味着决策缓慢,如果有决策的话。众口难调,结果常常是平庸的折中主义纠集一处。人人都插上一手,责任无人承担;个人无须标新立异;失败的决策也不会面临制裁,将来失败决策也少不了。当然,有时日本职场的共识只是一个假象,真正决策的还是高层。此种做法已是妨碍了公司效率,又为什么要自欺欺人?

Time to turn the page
向前一步走

If the onus is on Japanese managers to change, then it is fair to say that the government does not make it very easy for them to do so. The biggest problems lie in the labour market. Change jobs in mid-career and you risk losing your pension. The rigid seniority system also discriminates against women: if they get off the ladder to have children, they cannot get back on. And although there is no law against closing down loss-making businesses, most bosses and politicians act as if there were. If Japan’s leaders decide their country needs more people like Mr Shima—and it surely does—then they might reflect on all the ways that they prevent him from becoming a reality.
如果说改变是日本经理们的责任,那么也该说政府为改变所做的还远远不够。最大的问题就是劳动力市场。在职业生涯中期换工作很可能会失掉退休金。这个僵化死板的尚老体系还歧视妇女:女人一旦退出职场回家生子,就别再想恢复原职。尽管没有法律反对关闭亏损企业,绝大多数业主、政客还是会坚持到底。如果该国领导人承认日本需要更多人如岛耕作一般--确实如此--那么他们无疑应该反思阻碍这位漫画人物走向现实的种种行径。

[1]传统日本人的做事方式被称为“根回”(Nemawashi,指园丁在移植树木时小心翼翼地将所有跟须都包缠起来),意思是领导人在做重要决定时,必须设法将所有成员的意见都统一起来。
发表于19:10 | 阅读全文 | 评论 11 | 编辑 | 分享 0中国龙回归2008-08-20[2008.08.14] Re-enter the dragon 中国龙回归
The Shanghai Stock Exchange
上海证券交易所

Re-enter the dragon
中国龙回归

Aug 14th 2008 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition

After almost 70 years, Shanghai’s stock exchange is reopening to the world
近70年之后,上海证券交易所再度对世界开放



FROM the 1860s until the Japanese invasion of China in 1941, Shanghai’s bustling stock market listed not only domestic companies but also foreign firms, such as those now known as HSBC and Standard Chartered Bank, which operated out of the international concession特权. When trading resumed in 1992, only domestic firms could list. But many foreign ones have been eager to join them, and after a change in securities laws announced on August 6th, some may now have the chance.
自19世纪60年代至1941年日本侵华(英国人不熟悉中国近代历史?晕!),上海证券交易所均是一派繁忙景象。不光国内公司可以在此上市,外资公司,像现在的汇丰银行,渣打银行也可以在这里上市。这些公司都是通过国际特权来进行运作的。然而该交易所在1992年重新运作后,只有国内公司可以在此上市了,而外资公司亦急于加入。8月6日,官方公布对证券相关法规进行了修订,之后部分外资公司便可获得上市的机会。

The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) hopes to be the first foreign firm to list in Shanghai, and may have the blessing of the regulators, according to Chinese press reports. But there is competition. HSBC and Standard Chartered are also reportedly angling to return, and other big banks have put out feelers.
纽约证券交易所有望成为第一家在上海上市的外资公司。据中国媒体报道,纽约证券交易所此番上市还有可能享受到中国监管机构的优惠政策。但是这其中还存在竞争。据报道,汇丰银行和渣打银行均千方百计地试图重返上海证券交易所,其他一些大银行也已对此进行了试探。

Had the opening come in 2007 when the Shanghai market was riding a wave of euphoria for much of the year, the motivation for a listing by any Western company would have been self-evident: money—and lots of it. Conditions, however, have nosedived. Corporate profits may have risen since but share prices are down by half, and there is little appetite left to provide capital to domestic companies.
2007年上海的证券市场可谓是全线飘红。倘若在那时对外资企业开放,那么,任何一家西方公司在此上市的动机将会不言自明——盈利,大规模的盈利。然而现在情况陡转急下。公司利润可能自此上浮,但是股票价格却下跌过半,为国内公司提供资金的能力已所剩无几。

The first foreign firms to list may be luckier, however, because they offer Chinese investors a rare opportunity to diversify into non-Chinese shares. With lower portfolio risk, local investors would also theoretically be able to pay more for Chinese companies, says William Goetzmann, a professor at Yale University who has published a rare paper on the pre-war ties between China’s financial markets and the rest of the world.
首批上市的外资公司也许会是个幸运儿,因为他们能为中国投资者带来一个经营非中国股票的难得机会。在投资组合风险较低的环境中,国内的投资者从理论上也会增加对中国公司的投资。耶鲁大学的威廉?高兹曼教授说道。高兹曼教授就二战前的中国金融市场同世界其他各国的联系这一生僻主题发表了一篇论文。

For the newcomers, there would be many potential benefits including, above all, in marketing themselves to the Chinese. For example, just as a listing by the NYSE would confer some status on Shanghai, so would it also encourage Chinese firms to use New York’s main exchange as their market of choice. (The big state-owned ones have largely ignored the Big Board since a listing in 2003 by China Life, an insurance firm, was met by a barrage of American lawsuits, partly because of poor disclosure.) The NYSE’s own members may also find it easier to list in China. As a fringe benefit, it may be able to sell China its trading technology. For other companies, the shares issued in China could be used as a form of currency to provide performance-linked pay to local employees, as well as to buy Chinese companies.
对于新加入的公司,这将会有诸多潜在的好处,尤其是在打开中国市场方面。例如,纽约证券交易所的上市会提升上海的地位,同样,这也会鼓励中国的公司选择纽约主要的交易所作为他们专用的市场。(2003年,中国人寿在美国上市。由于信息缺乏透明度——这是部分原因——该公司在美国不断受到起诉。此后,大型国有公司基本上把大盘忽略了。)纽约证券交易所自己的成员也将会感到在中国上市会较为容易一些。此外,向中国出售他们的贸易技巧也会成为一项额外的收益。对其它公司而言,他们在中国发行的股票可以当作货币形式既可以作为绩效工资支付给本地员工,也可以收购中国公司。

But there are pitfalls. Exchange rules may permit the Chinese authorities to attend the board meetings of listed companies, something that might not bother the NYSE, which does not face competition from Chinese exchanges in its home markets of Europe or America, but would probably horrify a global bank. More importantly, the financial barriers that surround China’s economy, such as its closed capital account, restrictions on currency trading, and prohibition on short-selling, mean that shares in China trade at different prices from those with identical rights listed on other overseas exchanges.
但这其中亦有隐患。证券法规可能会允许中国当局加入上市公司的董事会。对于纽约证券交易所,这无甚大碍。因为在欧洲或美国的本土市场上它无须面对来自中国证券交易所的竞争。但对于跨国银行来说,这可能会让其担惊受怕。更重要的是,环绕中国经济的金融壁垒,譬如封闭资本账户、禁止货币交易、禁止卖空,意味着在中国,股票交易的价格会异于在其他海外证券交易所上市的拥有同等权利的股票的价格。

That kind of trading inefficiency looks bad for China and would be an embarrassment for the NYSE, which prides itself on its ability to price shares cleanly. To solve it, the potential entrants are considering how to issue other types of shares known as depository receipts—but that is complicated by China’s trading and capital restrictions. To find a solution, they may have to help China to liberalise its financial markets even further. That would not only benefit the foreigners, but China too—which is probably the main reason it is courting them in the first place.
此种低效率的贸易对中国不利,而且还会令纽约证券交易所感到难堪,因为该所对其干净利落的给股票定价的能力颇为自豪。要解决这一问题,未来的新成员就要考虑如合发行被称为存托凭证的其他种类多股票。但是,中国对于贸易和资本的种种限制会使其变得十分繁琐。为了找到一个解决的办法,他们也许不得不帮助中国进一步放开其金融市场。此举不仅会使外商受益,也会使中国受益——也许这正是中国起初吸引外资公司的主要原因。
发表于19:09 | 阅读全文 | 评论 5 | 编辑 | 分享 0土耳其“人肉”中转站2008-08-20【2008.8.14】Transiting through Turkey土耳其“人肉”中转站
Transiting through Turkey
土耳其“人肉”中转站

A tragic crossroads
中转路上的惨案
Aug 14th 2008 | ISTANBUL
From The Economist print edition


The luckless folk who try to get to, and through, Anatolia
小伙子没运气,来到了小亚细亚
THANKS to history and geography, Turkey serves as a way-station between continents and cultures. But not all the people who transit through that country see it in such a romantic way.
土耳其独特的历史和地理位置使其成为了连结亚欧大陆以及各个文明之间的通道,可并不是所有路经土耳其的人们都有这么浪漫的心情。
Take Mohammed Homadu, a young Somali who fled a homeland ravaged by Islamist insurgency. He paid $230 to a smuggler who promised to get him to Greece. After three harrowing weeks on a ramshackle boat, he and 72 fellow Africans were dumped in the sea by their captain off Turkey’s Aegean cast. “We were rescued by Turkish fishermen,” says Mr Homadu, who now earns $4 per day doing odd jobs in Istanbul. “But four of my friends, they drown.
以一个索马里青年Mohammed Homadu的遭遇为例,当初为了逃出饱受伊斯兰叛乱分子蹂躏的故土,背井离乡的他付给一名蛇头230美元,希望能偷渡到希腊。他和另外72名非洲人在一张破船上苦挨了三周后,他们的船长将他们扔进靠近土耳其海岸的爱琴海里。“我们被土耳其渔民救起,”Homadu说道,他现在在伊斯坦布尔干点杂活,一天能挣4美元。“但是我有四个朋友当时就淹死了。”
Wedged between Europe and Asia, Turkey serves as a big transit route for people-smuggling. It also serves the darker business of bringing sex workers westwards from the ex-Soviet republics of the Caucasus and Central Asia.
处于亚欧大陆的交界处,土耳其成了许多偷渡者的必经之地。另外,它也是运送性奴自前苏联联邦的高加索地区以及中亚地区西行的中转站。
Tens of thousands of illegal migrants are thought to cross Turkey every year. And some have it worse than Mr Homadu. Last month 14 illegal migrants, mostly Pakistanis, suffocated in the back of a lorry taking them to Greece. The bodies were left near Istanbul, giving police (see picture) a grisly forensic task.
每年估计有数以万计的偷渡者经过土耳其。有人的遭遇比Homadu先生来要惨得多,上个月多达十四名偷渡者(多数为巴基斯坦人)在一辆运送他们去希腊的卡车上窒息而死。尸体被抛在伊斯坦布尔市郊,现场惨不忍睹,警方的尸检工作十分沉重。
There is pressure on Turkey, an aspiring European Union member, to curb the twin evils of smuggling and trafficking. Results are mixed. The harsh terrain dividing Turkey from Iran and Iraq (from where most illegal migrants sneak in) is hard to control; so too is corruption.
由于渴望加入欧盟,土耳其承受着打击贩卖人口和偷渡等问题的压力。造成这些问题的原因有很多:由于与伊朗、伊拉克(这两个地区的偷渡活动最为猖獗)接壤,种种犯罪活动防不胜防;另外贪污腐败也是难以根除。
Western governments say Turkish practice is haphazard, letting some illegal entrants in while using arbitrary force to keep others out. In April four people drowned after Turkish police allegedly pushed a group of refugees into a river and made them swim back towards Iraq. The incident (corroborated by witnesses) prompted a harsh rebuke from the United Nations refugee agency; Turkey denies any wrongdoing.
许多西方政府把土政府的管理方法批作杂乱无章:先是开门放偷渡者进来,然后又用武力强制别人离开。据称,今年四月土尔其警方将一群难民推下河,命令他们游回伊拉克,结果造成四人死亡。该事件(有目击者证明)招致联合国难民署的强烈谴责,土方矢口否认有任何过错。
Police in Istanbul have been accused of detaining and beating illegal migrants, especially those with black skins. Some of them are forced by police to do heavy manual jobs, says Ozlem Dalkiran, who runs an EU-funded project for refugees. As for trafficking, the picture is brighter. Recent data suggest a drop in
the number of foreigners trafficked to Turkey to provide sex, says Maurizio Busatti of the International Organisation for Migration. The number of victims identified by Turkish officials fell from 246 women in 2006 to 148 last year. Over the same period, the number of convictions of suspected traffickers quadrupled.
土耳其警方还被指关押、殴打偷渡者,黑人遭受的不公正待遇更是严重。欧盟资助的一个难民项目的负责人Ozlem Dalkian称,有些偷渡者在警方的胁迫下从事重体力活。现在贩卖人口活动已有所减少,国际移民组织的Maurizio Busatti称,最近的数据表明贩卖到土耳其进行性交易的外国人人数有所下降。据土官方于2006年确定的女性受害者人数达到246人,去年这一数目降低到了148。在同一时期,抓获的人口贩子人数增加了三倍。
The authorities have used television ads to challenge the macho Turkish myth that sex workers “ask for i and want it”. “Did you know that over half of trficked women are mothers too?” asks one spot. Having been ensnared by talk of work as “fashion model” or “dancers”, a growing number of such women are rescued by semi-chivalrous male customers, who alert the police. Customers, says Mr Busatti, are not just part of the problem, but also part of the solution.
土官方用电视广告发起攻势,挑战土耳其国内许多男子认为性工作者“想要做,需要做”的观念。“你知道被贩卖妇女中有过半数身为人母吗?”其中的一个广告如是质问道。许多女子是被人贩子打着招聘“时装模特”或是“舞蹈演员”的旗号中了圈套,现在其中越来越多的受害者由于一些小有骑士风度的嫖客向警方报警而获营救。正如Busatti先生所言,解铃还需系铃人。
发表于19:07 | 阅读全文 | 评论 1 | 编辑 | 分享 0共129页 第一页 上一页 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 下一页 最后一页导航

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