当前位置:首页 >> 英语学习 >>

经济学人中英对照15


《The Economist》《经济学人》中文版
Translated From 《The Economist》,By ecocn team http://www.ecocn.org
企业预算:雾海航行2009-03-05Corporate planning 企业策划

Managing in the fog
雾海航行



Feb 26th 2009 | SAN FRANCISCO
From The Economist print edition

The struggle to make meaningful forecasts in a downturn
经济滑坡时期的企业预算制定者的困境



“NOT to beat around the bush, but the budgeting process at most companies has to be the most ineffective practice in management.” Thus Jack Welch, the former boss of GE, in his book “Winning”, which was published several years ago. Many firms that put their 2009 budgets together at the end of last year will no doubt agree with him. Most of them will have already been consigned to the shredder, as the economic crisis has blown away the assumptions on which they were based.

通用电器公司的前总裁Jack Welch在几年前出版的《赢》一书中写道“直言不讳地说,大多数公司的预算编制都很糟糕。”。去年底很多公司在进行2009年的预算审核、汇总时会发现情况的确如此。这场经济危机使那些基于假设而编制的预算彻底现出了原形,使很多公司面对危机束手无策,陷入苦苦挣扎的窘境。

Faced with exceptionally volatile business conditions, senior executives are finding it harder than ever to gauge how their companies are likely to fare in the months ahead. According to a recent global survey of 1,300 chief financial officers (CFOs) by Tilburg University in the Netherlands, America’s Duke University and CFO Europe magazine, a sister title of The Economist, finance chiefs say that the struggle to produce accurate forecasts now tops the list of things that keep them awake at night.

面临急剧变化的行业态势,企业的高管们很难预测未来数月公司的命运,从来没有这么难过。最近荷兰蒂尔堡大学、美国杜克大学和《欧洲CFO》(《经济学人》的姐妹刊)杂志社在全世界范围内对1,300家公司的首席财务官进行了调查。依这些财务主管们的话说,目前令他们睡不着觉的最主要原因就是要绞尽脑汁去编制公司有前瞻性的预算。

With even short-term horizons as obscure as the San Francisco skyline during a summer fog, companies are finding their standard budgeting and forecasting of little use. The usual trick of plugging figures from operating units into spreadsheets appeals to number-crunchers, but can often generate misleading targets, especially when conditions change fast. “The annual budget is even less of a meaningful document this year than usual,” argues Cynthia Jamison of Tatum, a consulting firm that also provides clients with interim CFOs.

公司的渺茫前景实在难以预料,就像人们在夏季的浓雾中远望不到旧金山的城市轮廓。用以往的方式编制出来的预算基本就是一堆废纸。过去惯用的方法就是把从基层单位收集到的数据往电子表格里一输,剩下的事情就交给大型计算机去处理了。很省心,但计算机处理后常常是得出了错误的结论。外部条件波动剧烈时错误就更加严重了。Tatum公司以咨询业务为主并能为雇主提供临时财务主管的人员。该公司的Cynthia Jamison说:“今年编制的年度预算比往年错误更多,完全就是废纸一堆。”

What can companies do? A few forward-thinking firms can provide inspiration. Hugh Courtney, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business, thinks more companies should be using “scenario planning” alongside their financial models, which do not produce a large enough spread of possible outcomes to capture the flavour of today’s uncertainties. Sten Daugaard, the finance chief of Lego, a Danish toymaker, says his firm generated a number of different scenarios as part of its 2009 budget, the first time it had used such an approach. It has developed contingency plans for each scenario so that it can react swiftly whatever the coming months throw at it.

那么企业该如何是好呢?少数几个具有远见的公司的做法可以给人们以启示。美国马里兰大学史密斯商学院的Hugh Courtney教授认为,更多的公司不仅要编制财务预算,同时还应该制定公司的远景规划。这种远景规划不需要用计算机得出的复杂数据来预测具有种种不确定性的未来状况。Lego公司是一家丹麦玩具公司,其财务主管Sten Daugaard说:作为2009年的财务预算的一部分,该公司编制了几套不同的远景规划。这是第一次采用这种方式编制公司的预算。针对每一种远景规划都制定了相应的应变计划,这样在未来的几个月内不管发生什么样的突然变故,公司都可以迅速做出反应。

Lego has also been using a monthly meeting of senior managers, known as the operations board, to pool knowledge of what is happening in its various markets. At each get-together, the firm’s executives not only discuss what has been going on that month, but also make their best guess about what is likely to happen in the 12 months to come.

Lego公司还每月召开一次高层管理人员会议,被称为“操纵员聚会”。在每次聚会中,公司各部门的高管们要分别通报各自领域最新的市场信息。他们不仅要讨论本月的市场状况,还要尽可能的预测接下来的12个月中可能发生的市场变化。

Some companies have formalised this kind of approach by creating “rolling forecasts”. At the end of, say, the first quarter of a financial year, managers forecast the remaining three quarters again and then add an extra quarter’s projections, worrying about only the most important financial variables. Many companies in Europe already use such systems, says Emery Sinclair of Revelwood, an American software-services provider, and firms in America are suddenly taking a lot more interest in them. One benefit of rolling forecasts is that they discourage executives from becoming too fixated on the present at the expense of the future.

一些公司通过一种“滚动预测”的形式使这种制度程序化。也就是说,在每个财务年度的第一季度末,企业管理者们要重新做出后三个季度的市场预测,并且还要编制第四个季度的市场分析报告,该报告只考虑最主要的影响因数,做出简单的财务分析。Revelwood公司是一家美国的软件公司。该公司的Emery Sinclair说,欧洲的许多企业早已开始采用这种方法了,美国的公司也突然对此产生了浓厚的兴趣。这种“滚动预测”的好处之一是使企业管理者能够及时了解市场变化,不至于鼠目寸光,损害企业的长远利益。

In praise of short-termism
短期预测方式是可行的选择

Yet with economies in free fall, managers also need up-to-date information about what is happening to their businesses, so that they can change course rapidly if necessary. Cisco, an American network-equipment giant, has invested over many years in the technology needed to generate such data. Frank Calderoni, the firm’s CFO, says that every day its senior executives can track exactly what orders are coming in from sales teams around the world, and identify emerging trends in each region and market segment. And at the end of each month, the firm can get reliable financial results within four hours of closing its books. Most firms have to wait days or even weeks for such certainty.

由于经济形势急剧恶化,企业管理者们还需要及时了解公司目前状况的最新信息,这样就能根据需要及时调整公司的经营策略。Cisco是一家美国网络设备公司中的巨无霸,该公司多年来致力于开发能生成此类数据的技术。这家公司的财务主管Frank Calderoni说,该公司的高级主管们每天都能准确得知公司在全球范围内的销售状况,并据此分析每个地区市场的未来走向。每个月末,该公司可在结账4小时之内就作岀可靠的财务分析报告。而大多数公司要想得到如此准确的分析报告需要等上几天甚至几个星期。

Admittedly, Cisco’s financial results have not made happy reading recently because, in common with many other large technology companies, it has seen demand for its products falter in the downturn. In early February it announced that its fiscal second-quarter revenues of $9.1 billion were 7.5% lower than the same period in 2008 and that its profit had fallen by 27%, to $1.5 billion.

诚然,最近Cisco公司的财务状况确实很糟糕。但不仅该公司,世界经济的下滑导致了很多大型科技企业的产品销量急剧下降。今年2月初,Cisco公司宣布,公司本财务年度二季度的收入只有91亿美元,比08年同期下降了7.5%;盈利比08年同期下降了27%,只有15亿美元。

In response to hard times, Cisco plans to cut $1 billion of costs this year by, among other things, harnessing its own video-conferencing and other communications technologies to reduce the amount its executives travel. It is also using these facilities to relay information from employees on the ground to its senior managers, and to get instructions from Cisco’s leaders back out to its 67,000 staff. A rapid exchange of information and instructions is especially valuable if the company wants to alter course in stormy times.

为了渡过当前的艰难时期,Cisco公司计划把今年的开支削减10亿美元。其中一项费用削减的措施就是利用自家研制的视频会议系统和其它通信技术来减少公司的差旅费。公司还利用这些设施及时将采自最基层的信息逐级反馈给各级管理者,并能够将Cisco公司首脑们的指令迅速传达给公司所有的67,000名员工。在金融风暴的滔天巨浪中要想使公司这艘巨轮及时转向,迅速的信息交换和即时的指令传达尤为重要。

If everybody in a company can rapidly grasp what they have to do and how it is changing, they are more likely to get the job done. But some firms are reluctant to share their goals with the wider world. Unilever, a big Anglo-Dutch consumer-goods group, has decided against issuing a 2009 financial forecast to investors, arguing that it is difficult to predict what is going to happen, given the parlous state of the world economy. “We’re not just going to provide numbers for the sake of it,” explains James Allison, the company’s head of investor relations. Other companies that have decided not to provide annual earnings estimates for 2009 include Costco, a big American retailer, and Union Pacific, an American railway company.

如果公司里的每个人都能及时知道自己目前应该做什么,下一步又该做什么,他们就能把工作做得更好。但是,某些公司的高层们并不愿意向全体员工公开公司的目标。联合利华是一家大型的英国-荷兰合资的日用品集团公司。该公司宣称由于世界经济形势剧烈动荡,前景难以预料,所以决定不向公司的投资者发放09年的财务预算白皮书。该公司投资部门总管James Allison解释说:“由于世界经济不稳定,所以我们不打算公布公司的盈利目标。”其它已决定不提供2009年度收益预期的公司还有一家美国大型零售公司Costco和美国的联合太平洋铁路公司。

Some firms, such as Intel, seem to have chosen to take things quarter by quarter. The giant chipmaker said in January that it would not issue an official forecast for the first quarter of 2009 after its fourth-quarter 2008 profit plunged by 90%. Several retail chains have also stopped providing monthly sales estimates because they cannot see what the future holds. Retailers, chipmakers and firms in many other industries may have a long wait before the economic fog finally lifts.

一些公司,例如英特尔公司,似乎选择了每月做一次预算的方式。这家大型芯片生产企业表示,由于08第四季度年公司盈利骤降90%,所以09年1月份不再发布今年第一季度的正式盈利预算报告。公司下游的几家零售企业也不再提供月度销售额预算,因为以后会怎么样谁也不知道。看来,要等这场经济动荡的迷雾最终消退,芯片制造商和零售企业以及其它行业都还需要很长一段时间。

发表于12:37 | 阅读全文 | 评论 0 | 编辑 | 分享 0黄金:大涨 一骑绝尘2009-03-03Gold
黄金

Haring away
一骑绝尘

Feb 26th 2009
From The Economist print edition

Burnished by bad news, gold looks like a good each-way bet
噩耗频频炼真金,投资胜算握手中

IT IS 1979 and Harry “Rabbit” Angstrom, the hero of John Updike’s series of novels, is explaining to his wife why he has just spent more than $11,000 on 30 gold krugerrands. “The beauty of gold is, it loves bad news,” he says. Three decades later, gold is once again thriving on despair. Before Christmas, a troy ounce could be bought for around $800. By the third week in February, gold was trading at close to $1,000 an ounce.

1979年,约翰?厄普代克(John Updike)[注1]系列小说中的主人公,“兔子”哈里?安斯特洛姆,在向他的妻子解释,为什么自己刚刚花了一万一千多美元买了三十枚南非富格林金币[注2]。“黄金的美丽之处就是它钟爱坏消息,”他说。30年后,黄金于绝望之中再度兴盛。去年圣诞节前,金价还在800美元/盎司 [注3] 附近。到今年二月中下旬,金价已经剑指1000美元/盎司了。

A surge in demand for gold as an investment lies behind the jump in prices. Flows into exchange-traded funds, which buy and store gold for their shareholders, rose from 105 tonnes in January to 208 tonnes in the first three weeks of February, according to Suki Cooper at Barclays Capital. At that rate, inflows will soon surpass the total of 322 tonnes for the whole of 2008. Buying by investors has more than made up for a slump in gold-jewellery purchases in key markets, such as India and Turkey, where higher prices and wilting exchange rates have crushed demand.

此次金价大涨的背后原因是黄金投资需求的激增。据巴克莱银行(Barclays Capital)的索奇?库珀(Suki Cooper)统计,由于股东们纷纷通过交易所交易基金(ETF)[注4]购买并储存黄金,截止2月前三周,黄金ETF的增持量已从1月的105吨上升至208吨。照此速度,增持量会很快就会超过2008年全年的增持总量,322吨。投资买盘的涌入完全弥补了印度和土耳其等主要黄金首饰消费市场的销量下滑。在上述地区,上涨的金价和疲软的汇率沉重打击了黄金消费需求。

People have long viewed gold, rightly or wrongly, as a hedge against high inflation and a weak dollar. So when the gold price briefly broke through the $1,000 mark in March last year, it was easily explained by fears that rising commodity prices (and, in America, a weak dollar) would feed inflation. An earlier run-up in gold prices, between 2002 and 2005, coincided with a sustained fall in the dollar. But now gold is strong even as the dollar thrives and economies face deflation.

无论对错,人们长久以来将黄金誉为规避高通胀和美元疲软的上佳手段。因此,当金价去年3月短暂突破1000美元大关时,被简单地解释为是出于对通货膨胀的担心,因为人们担心商品价格上涨(在美国还包括美元疲软)会对通货膨胀推波助澜。此前一轮的金价上涨行情,即2002至2005年间,就恰逢美元持续下跌。但是,即使目前美元需求旺盛,经济面临通货紧缩,黄金依然坚挺。

Gold’s recent progress seems to be a response to generalised fears of economic turmoil. When supposedly safe savings vehicles, such as bank deposits, look shaky and offer scant returns, gold has greater appeal as an alternative store of wealth. It also looks like an attractive each-way bet. If drastic cuts in interest rates work too well, that will fuel inflation. If they do not work, prices of assets, such as stocks and houses, will sink further.

黄金近期的涨势可以看成是对经济动荡的普遍担心。原以为安全的储蓄产品,如银行存款,看起来都岌岌可危,提供的回报也都很不理想,此时黄金作为代替的保值工具,就更具吸引力了。无论如何推演未来情况,黄金看起来都能大小通吃,魅力难挡。如果大幅度降息的作用过于明显,将会助长通货膨胀。若是没有效果,股票和房产等资产的价格则将进一步下跌。



Like Updike’s protagonist in “Rabbit is Rich”, the new wave of gold investors typically have wealth to preserve, according to Adrian Ash at BullionVault, an online service for gold investors. “Gold is something you buy if you have something to lose,” he says. What links today’s gold fever with the 1970s rush is negative real deposit rates. Many savers now prefer a claim on gold in a vault to one on cash in the bank. There is less risk that a counterparty blows up, and the “carrying cost” of gold in terms of lost interest is, in any case, vanishing.

据黄金投资交易网站BullionVault的阿德里安?艾施(Adrian Ash)统计,像厄普代克的著作《兔子,富了》中的主角一样,新一拨的黄金投资者通常都有财产需要保值。“若面前危机重重,就该购买黄金,”他说。将此时的黄金热与上世纪70年代的冲顶联系在一起的是存款实际负利率。许多储户声称相对于银行里的存款,现在更喜欢金库里的黄金。不仅交易方违约的风险较少,而且黄金的“保管费”相对于利息损失,很多情况下,可以忽略不计。

How high might the gold price go? Gold bugs talk excitedly about it reaching $2,300, which would match the January 1980 peak in real terms (see chart). Already the gold price is above its average since 1972 when calculated in today’s money. There is a limited supply of gold and lots of potential buyers—ideal conditions for a bubble, says Stephen Jen at Morgan Stanley. If gold is burnished by grim news, it seems likely to become still more alluring.

金价会涨到多高?持乐观态度者兴奋地预测会达到2300美元,扣除物价的变动也就是可以触及1980年1月的高峰期值了(见图表) 。以现在的价格计算,黄金的价格已经高于1972年以来的均价了。摩根士丹利的任永力(Stephen Jen)表示,黄金有限的供应,加上不胜枚举的潜在买家——形成了价格泡沫滋生的理想温床。黄金若是经过不利消息的磨砺,其诱人之处似乎更胜从前。

译注:
[1] John Updike,约翰?厄普代克(1932年-2009年)出生在宾夕法尼亚州,是家中独子。厄普代克曾就读哈佛大学英文系,并曾在英国牛津大学学了一年的艺术。厄普代克自23岁靠写作为生,为《纽约客》杂志写了大批的诗歌、短文和短篇小说,后来辞去《纽约客》工作后专事写作,定居易普威治镇长达十七年之久。2003年厄普代克以短篇小说集《早期故事》抱走普利策奖。他最著名“兔子四部曲”系列小说曾两次获得普利策奖。在半个世纪的时间里,他写了大约50部书,内容涉及二战后美国生活的方方面面,包括性爱、宗教与艺术等。
“兔子”哈里?安斯特洛姆(Harry Angstrom)的这一生挺热闹,也可以说在时代大潮里载浮载沉。在中学时代,他曾经是个篮球明星,因为球技不错、灵活敏捷,因此得了个“兔子”的绰号。
《兔子,跑吧》(Rabbit,Run,1960)是“兔子四部曲”的第一部。故事发生在1959年3月至6月。讲述年轻的主人公“兔子”哈利因不满平庸的工作和家庭生活而离家出走、不断逃跑的经历。
《兔子,回家》(Rabbit Redeux,1971)是兔子四部曲之二,故事发生在1969年7月16日至10月31日。讲述主人公哈利返回家后,妻子反离家跟情人同居;以及哈利收留嬉皮士女孩吉尔和黑人逃犯斯基特后发生的事变。
《兔子,富了》(Rabbit Is Rich,1981)写又十年后,46岁的兔子俨然一个成功的经纪人。1979年美国受石油危机影响大闹油荒,但是兔子经营着岳父的汽车行、代理销售日本丰田汽车,大发其财。
《兔子,死了》(Rabbit at Rest,1990)将故事放在1989年。美国经济突飞猛进,但是吸毒、艾滋、肥胖、空虚一直是黄金时代的黑暗一面。兔子被妻子指派替代儿子接手汽车行的生意,但是某一日,他重蹈覆辙、离家出走,不顾身体状况狂吃一顿,又去打篮球,结果心肌梗塞而死。洋洋洒洒的兔子四部曲以一个意味深长的词结束:Enough,够了。

[2] gold krugerrands, 南非富格林金币。20世纪70年代,南非黄金的平均年产量已占到西方世界黄金总产量的75%,由此意识到:推动黄金消费甚为重要。随着1971年世界金本位的彻底崩溃,南非首先推出了富格林金币。富格林金币的推出,象征着国际黄金投资品的问世。随着富格林金币的销售成功,促使更多的国家发行普制金币。1979年加拿大枫叶金币问世;1981年墨西哥自由金币问世;1982年中国熊猫金币发行;1986年美国鹰扬金币问世;1987年英国不列颠金币问世;1989年奥地利音乐金币问世。世界金币市场最终形成规模。

[3] troy ounce,金衡制盎司:重量单位。整体缩写为oz.tr(英)、oz.t(美)。常见于金银等贵金属的计量中。 1盎司=31.1035克;12盎司=1 lbs磅。 常衡制的ounce (缩写oz),等于1/16磅,或约等于28.3495克

[4] Exchange Traded Fund,英文缩写ETF,中译为“交易所交易基金”,又称“交易型开放式指数基金”。ETF是一种在交易所上市交易的开放式证券投资基金产品,交易手续与股票完全相同。ETF管理的资产是一揽子股票组合,这一组合中的股票种类与某一特定指数,如上证50指数,包涵的成份股票相同,每只股票的数量与该指数的成份股构成比例一致,ETF交易价格取决于它拥有的一揽子股票的价值,即“单位基金资产净值”。这里的ETF应该是公司型的基金,即是依据基金公司章程设立,在法律上具有独立法人地位的股份投资公司,投资者购买基金公司的股份后,以基金持有人的身份成为基金公司的股东。

发表于11:34 | 阅读全文 | 评论 1 | 编辑 | 分享 0乌克兰:70%的违约概率2009-03-02
[2009.2.27] The spectre of default 违约阴云
Ukraine's aches
乌克兰之痛

The spectre of default
违约阴云

Feb 27th 2009
From the Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire

Despite rising investor unease in Ukraine, the cabinet is in no hurry to adopt a credible budget
火烧眉毛还不慌不乱

Ukraine insists it has the funds to avoid default, in the wake of a sharp downgrade by an international ratings agency and CDS spreads that suggest a 70% likelihood of default. Ukraine’s sovereign repayments this year are affordable, but the state could be landed with much-larger obligations from the private sector. Thus relations with the IMF are critical, but these have stumbled on a dispute over the 2009 budget, which rests on highly optimistic assumptions and still fails to deliver the promised zero-deficit. Evidently the government is unwilling to make further spending cuts, and prefers to cover the deficit with bilateral loans. The IMF’s attitude to this is uncertain. Adding to the sense of panic, Ukraine could in early March suffer sharp penalties for its failure to pay for Russian gas supplies.

在一家国际评级机构大幅下调对乌克兰的评级以及信贷违约掉期溢价显示出70%的违约概率之后,乌克兰坚持认为自己拥有足够的资金来避免违约的发生。乌克兰今年还能够对其国债进行偿付,但是政府可能会面临承担来自私人部门更大规模的债务负担。因此,和IMF保持良好的关系非常重要,但是由于乌克兰2009年的预算基于高度乐观估计,同时也没能兑现零赤字的承诺,所以和IMF之间的关系也陷入僵局。很明显,政府不愿意进一步减少支出,而是青睐与采取双边贷款的方式来填补赤字。对此,IMF的表态还不清楚。火上浇油的是,乌克兰可能会由于无法对俄罗斯提供的天然气进行偿付而在3月初便会受到严重的惩罚。

Ukraine's president Viktor Yushchenko on February 25th dismissed the notion that Ukraine lacked the means to service its sovereign and private debts: “no doubt, these resources exist,” he said. Mr Yushchenko was responding to the decision earlier that day by the credit ratings agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) to cut Ukraine’s main rating, its long-term foreign-currency rating, by two notches to CCC+, putting the country deeper into junk territory. S&P also maintained a negative outlook, indicating that further downgrades were possible.

2月25号,乌克兰总统维克多?尤先科(Viktor Yushchenko)打消了乌克兰缺乏对国债及私债进行偿付的方式,他说:“毫无疑问,我们拥有偿还债务的资源”。尤先科这么说是对早前标普降低乌克兰主要信用评级 — 长期外汇信用评级 — 至“CCC+”的回应,这一降级使得乌克兰近一步深陷垃圾信贷评级区间。标普还将乌克兰列入“前景不佳”黑名单,亦即可能还会被近一步降级。

Markets agree with S&P’s assessment. Spreads on credit default swaps (CDS), a form of insurance against default, have risen from around 400 basis points in August 2008 to over 3,500 today. According to Bloomberg, citing CMA Datavision, spreads at the current level imply a 69.6% chance of default in two years and a 91.8% chance in five years.

市场的表现与标普的评级相契合。信贷违约掉期(一种防范违约的保险产品)的溢价已经从去年8月份的400个基点(4%)涨至目前的3500基点。彭博资讯(Bloomberg)引自CMA Datavision的分析表明,CDS目前的溢价水平意味着标的债券在2年内发生违约的概率为69.6%,而在5年内发生违约的概率将高达91.8%。

Small debts, looming liabilities
小型债券需要(政府)进行偿付的义务隐现

On the basis of the S&P downgrade and the CDS spreads, it would be tempting to conclude that Ukraine has enormous sovereign debts that it will struggle to pay this year. In fact, estimates for sovereign repayments this year range between US$2bn and US$3bn, which are covered several times over by foreign currency reserves which stood at US$28.2bn in January. On this basis, even allowing for additional spending of reserves to protect the hryvnya, which has fallen markedly against the dollar and euro in recent months, there appear to be ample funds to cover all sovereign obligations.

基于标普的降级举措以及当前CDS溢价水平,这或许指出乌克兰需要今年偿还的国债规模庞大,而且偿还将会十分艰难。事实上,对今年需偿还的国债额的估计为20亿美金到30亿美金之间,而1月份乌克兰的外汇储备为282亿美金 — 足以支付好几倍需偿付的国债额。基于这点,即便是要额外地使用外汇储备以保护近几个月对美元和欧元大幅贬值的乌克兰货币格里夫纳(hryvnya),乌克兰看似仍然还有大量的资金来保障所有的主权债务偿付。

Markets are pessimistic about Ukraine for two reasons. First, the state could ultimately be saddled with the obligations of Ukrainian companies, which are due to repay an estimated US$43bn this year in foreign loans. Their ability to pay is open to serious doubt. The country’s banks, which borrowed heavily abroad in recent years, have been frozen out of international credit markets and are suffering losses at home as the property market tanks and private consumption falters. Industry has been hit hard by the contraction in world trade and sharply lower prices for the country’s main exports, steel products and chemicals (in particular fertiliser). The other main industry branch, machine-building, is suffering from the swift downturn in Russia, its major foreign market. With high levels of short-term debt, Ukraine’s overall debt profile looks much more worrying than its sovereign debt profile.

市场对乌克兰表示悲观主要有两个原因。首先,乌克兰可能被迫担上乌克兰各公司的债务。据估计,乌克兰公司需要今年偿还的对外债务量为430亿美金。这些公司能否偿还这些债务还存在严重怀疑。近年来大量举借外债的乌克兰各银行已经被冻结在国际信贷市场之外,同时,由于国内房市萎靡加之私人消费不振,这些银行正蒙受巨大损失。由于国际贸易收缩以及乌克兰出口的主要产品价格大幅下滑 — 钢铁产品和化工产品(尤其是化肥),乌克兰国内各产业遭受重创。其他的主要行业分支,机器制造业,也因为其主要国外市场俄罗斯市场形势的迅速恶化而受到严重影响。鉴于乌克兰拥有大量的短期债务,其总的债务状况比国债状况看起来更令人担忧许多。

IMF breakdown
同IMF闹僵

The second reason for concern centres on relations with the IMF, which rode to Ukraine’s aid in late 2008 with an unprecedentedly large US$1***bn facility. Although the first US$4.5bn tranche was promptly disbursed, problems became apparent before the end of the year. In an interview with Russian daily Kommersant, IMF mission head Ceyla Pazarbasioglu alluded to political interference in setting monetary and exchange-rate policies, which should be the central bank's perogative.

市场悲观的第二个因素是乌克兰同IMF之间的关系。2008年,IMF为乌克兰提供了164亿美金的贷款资助,金额之大史无前例。尽管最初的45亿美金很快划拨到乌克兰,但是问题在去年年底前则显现出来。在同《俄罗斯商业日报》的一次采访中,IMF的项目主任瑟伊拉?巴扎巴西奥格鲁(Ceyla Pazarbasioglu)暗示:货币及汇率政策的制定受到了政治因素的介入,而制定这些政策应该是中央银行的工作。

The passage of the 2009 budget, however, brought matters with the IMF to a head. Part of the deal was for Ukraine to produce a balanced budget for this year, yet the one passed by parliament targets a deficit equal to 3% of GDP. As a result, the IMF mission left Ukraine in early February without reaching an agreement with the government to trigger disbursement of the US$1.8bn second tranche.

然而,刚通过的2009年预算使乌克兰同IMF之间发生冲突。贷款项目的部分协议是乌克兰要在今年平衡预算,但是乌克兰国会则将预算赤字设定为GDP的3%。这样一来,IMF代表团在未同政府谈妥第二笔18亿美金的贷款之前,于2月初离开了乌克兰。

This was a major factor behind the S&P downgrade, even though Ukraine does not immediately need the US$1.8bn; seemingly, it has barely dipped into the first US$4.5bn. The worry for investors is that the failure to secure IMF approval means that Ukraine’s fiscal policy is on a trajectory that will court disaster.

尽管说乌克兰并非马上就要需要这18亿美金贷款,而且似乎乌克兰几乎还没有动用取得的第一笔45亿美金贷款,但是这却是标普下调乌克兰信贷评级的主要原因。投资者们担心的是,无法获得IMF的贷款批准意味着乌克兰的财政政策正处于一个将会遭致祸害的轨道上。

Fiscal fiction
财政小说

Given the unremittingly gloomy stream of data since the IMF deal was concluded—industrial output contracted by around 24% year on year in the final three months of 2008, and by 34.1% year on year in January—a zero-deficit budget might not be appropriate or politically feasible. However, to shift from a balanced budget to a 3% deficit is a sizeable leap for the Fund to make.

自从与IMF达成贷款项目之后,鉴于乌克兰持续恶化的经济数据(08年第四季度的工业产值与去年同比收缩24%左右,而09年1月,该数据变成34.1%),零赤字预算可能既不恰当,政治上也行不通。然而,对于IMF来讲,从预算平衡(的要求)转到3%赤字率确实是要跨越一个巨大的鸿沟。

Moreover, there are very strong reasons to doubt whether the 3% deficit target, which in cash terms is HRN31.1bn (US$3.7bn), is achievable—for it rests on highly optimistic assumptions. GDP is forecast to rise by 0.4%, whereas the mid-February consensus estimate was -5.4% and the Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts -8%. Consequently, the budget’s revenue projections look hopelessly optimistic. The revenue target of HRN239bn (US$28.2bn) implies an increase of 3% compared with 2008, whereas in light of the stinging economic contraction underway most independent observers would expect a double-digit fall. The forecast for a 1% increase in value-added tax receipts on foreign purchases appears outlandish, given the steep drop that is expected in imports in 2009. Moreover, the government had originally planned to raise a significant amount of revenue from the local budgets through the introduction of a real estate tax. Although the initiative fell through, revenue targets were not adjusted to take this into account.

此外,至于3%的赤字目标(折成现金为311亿格里夫纳,既37亿美金)能否实现,仍然还有很强的理由去怀疑。乌克兰09年的GDP预测为增长0.4%,而2月中旬乌克兰达成的一直预测则是-5.4%(经济学家信息部的预测是-8%)。这样一来,预算收入的预测看起来只是没有希望的乐观。2390亿格里夫纳(282亿美金)的目标收入意味着要比2008年增长3%,但是在经济剧烈收缩的态势下,大多数独立观察人士会提出高达两位数的下滑预期。而在2009年预期进口大幅减少的情况下,预算提出的购买国外商品增值税收入增加1%的预测则未免让人摸不着北。另外,在本地预算项目中,政府原本计划通过引入房产税而取得一笔不菲的收入。虽然这个计划没能获得通过,但是预算中的收入目标并没有对此进行相应的扣除调整。

The government plans to finance the budget deficit largely through privatisation and state borrowing. The privatisation target is HRN8.6bn, which is roughly the same as in 2008, when receipts were less than 10% of the targeted level. Even assuming that the political battles between Mr Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko that stalled privatisation last year can be overcome, in the current global economic environment it is doubtful whether privatisation plans will be able to raise sufficient international interest or realise envisaged prices.

政府计划通过私有化以及政府借款的方式来为预算进行融资。私有化的筹资目标为86亿格里夫纳,这差不多和08年的目标一样,而08年在这个项目上获得实际融资量还不足目标的10%。即便假设导致去年私有化停滞的尤先科总统和尤利女亚?特莫申科(Yuliya Tymoshenko)总理之间的政治斗争能够被克服,而在目前的全球经济环境下,私有化计划能否引来足够的国际兴趣或者获得设想的收入还值得怀疑。

Not walking the walk
缺乏行动

The other aspect of the budget likely to draw the IMF’s ire is a planned 5.6% increase in spending, to HRN267bn. Given rising socio-economic discontent and the likelihood of a deep recession, an increase in spending to cushion the impact is preferable from a political perspective. In a downturn, more welfare spending is necessary and unavoidable. Yet whether the overall level of spending is affordable looks doubtful, in light of the chances that revenue will fall well short of the target and that the country has few options for external financing. There is little sign that the government has considered serious spending reforms, even though this could potentially free up additional money to support the most vulnerable in society. In short, while Ukraine’s politicians have paid lip-service to the austerity demanded by the IMF, they have not taken it to heart in setting the 2009 budget, for fear of the negative impact on socio-economic conditions and GDP growth.

另外一个可能令IMF不高兴的地方是,预算支出计划增加5.6%至2670亿格里夫纳。加剧的的社会经济方面不满情绪,以及深陷衰退的可能性,在这种情况下采取增加支出来缓解这些不良影响在政治上是更合理的。在经济下滑之时,增加福利支出很必要而且也无可避免。然而,由于收入目标可能远不能实现,同时政府又鲜能取得外部筹资,于是政府能否撑得起总共的支出似乎值得怀疑。虽然进行支出改革有潜力能够释放更多的资金来支持社会中最薄弱的环节,但是几乎没有迹象表明政府已经开始考虑进行严肃的支出改革。简而言之,尽管乌克兰政客已经口头上表示会按照IMF的要求紧缩财政支出,但是由于担心减省支出会对社会经济状况和GDP增长造成的不利影响,乌克兰的政客在制定09年预算时并没有真的把他们向IMF说的东西往心里放。

The deputy prime minister, Hryhoriy Nemyrya, said on February 26th that the IMF was willing to sign off on a deficit of 3% of GDP, provided that Ukraine found other sources of finance to cover the deficit. Ms Tymoshenko has busied herself with seeking to raise this bilaterally, most notably through a US$5bn credit from Russia. Whether the IMF is indeed willing to condone a 3% deficit financed by other means is uncertain; yet the more pertinent question is whether Ukraine is actually on course for a US$3.7bn deficit—or one that is much larger. It is difficult to see how the Fund can agree to disburse the next tranche while Ukraine’s budget is so much more optimistic about GDP growth than the Fund itself, with the implications this has for revenue projections and thus the appropriate level of spending.

2月26日,乌克兰副总理瓦休尼克(Hryhoriy Nemyrya)说,在乌克兰能够找到其他融资途径来填补预算赤字的前提下,IMF愿意在3%的赤字率下签发贷款。季莫申科(Tymoshenko)已经忙于寻求通过双边筹资的方式来取得融资,最引人注目的一笔是通过从俄罗斯处获得50亿美金信用贷款。至于IMF是否真的愿意放宽条件允许乌克兰通过其他方式为3%的预算赤字进行融资,还不清楚。但是更贴切的问题是,实际上乌克兰是否会按照37亿美金的赤字 — 或者更高的赤字 — 运作。在乌克兰的预算中,对GDP的增长比IMF乐观许多,从而两者对预期收入以及相应的合理支出水平的预测都会不一样,于是将令人很难发现IMF怎么会同意支付乌克兰下一笔贷款。

Bills to pay
应付的账款

Although the government seems to not be in a great hurry to gain access to the next IMF tranche, the country may be facing a financial crisis of sorts within a fortnight. Under the terms of the gas deal signed on January 19th, Ukraine has to pay US$360 per 1,000 cubic metres for Russian gas in the first quarter of this year (double the 2008 price), after which the price will fall sharply. Moreover, Ukraine must settle its monthly bill by the seventh day of the following month. With industrial enterprises suffering sharply lower domestic and foreign sales, and municipalities hampered by an interruption in the flow of funding from the central government, non-payments to state gas utility Naftohaz Ukrainy reportedly amount to HRN6.1bn (US$720m). The company has warned it will struggle to pay the bill for Russian gas supplied in February, which is estimated at US$360m-450m, by March 7th. If it fails to do so, the contract provides for an immediate switch to pre-payment for gas supplies. Furthermore, Kommersant has quoted Gazprom’s deputy director, Andrei Kruglov, as saying that Gazprom will cut supplies to Ukraine on March 8th if the bill is not paid in full.

尽管政府看似不是非常急于获得IMF的下一笔贷款,但是乌克兰可能在两个星期之内就会面临某种形式的金融危机。1月19日签订的天然气交易合约中,乌克兰需要在本年第一季度以360美金每立方千米的价格支付俄罗斯提供的天然气账款,这一价格是08年的两倍,而在这笔欠款支付后,天然气的价格将会大幅下滑。此外,乌克兰必须在下个月7号之前解决其该月应付的账款。由于工业企业受到国内外销量剧烈下滑的影响,同时各市政当局由于受到中央政府资金支持中断的影响,据报导,对乌克兰国有天然气公司Naftohaz Ukrainy的账款拖欠达到61亿格里夫纳(合7.2亿美金)。这家公司(Naftohaz Ukrainy)已经发出通告,公司将竭力在3月7号之前偿还2月份从俄罗斯购买天然气所需支付的大概3.6-4.5亿美金款项。如果公司无法在3月7号之前偿清,按照合同规定,可以转为直接支付天然气供应的预付款。而且,《商业日报》引用俄罗斯国家天然气公司(Gazprom)副主管安德里?克鲁格洛夫(Andrei Kruglov)说,如果乌克兰在3月8号还不能全额支付账款的话,俄罗斯国家天燃气公司将切断对乌克兰的天然气供应。

A gas cut-off or the switch to pre-payment would be highly damaging for the reputation of Ukraine’s leadership and it would make financial management at Naftohaz and the state treasury more difficult. The likelihood is therefore that the central bank will dip into its reserves to pay the February gas bill. However, Ukraine’s government cannot indefinitely tap the central bank’s cache in order to meet its own obligations and those of state companies. Russian loans might help plug some budget gaps, but given the country’s need for investor support there probably is no alternative to producing a budget that has IMF approval—and that will mean the government biting the bullet on spending cuts.

切断天然气供应或者转为支付预付款都将严重损害乌克兰领导集体的声誉,同时还将是乌克兰天燃气公司Naftohaz及乌克兰财务部的融资管理更加艰难。因此,可能性是,中央银行将会使用外汇储备来支付2月份应缴的天然气账款。然而,乌克兰政府不能无限制的利用中央银行的“缓存”来完成政府以及那些国有企业应尽的义务。俄罗斯的贷款可能能够帮助弥补部分预算赤字,但是由于乌克兰如此地需要投资者支持,可能除了通过制定出满足从IMF处获准贷款的预算之外,也别无他选:而这将意味着乌克兰政府得忍受削减支出之痛。


发表于11:41 | 阅读全文 | 评论 0 | 编辑 | 分享 0雅库扎:一个黑帮倒下去,千万个警察站起来2009-03-02
[2009.02.26]Feeling the heat 开始痛了
The yakuza
雅库扎

Feeling the heat
开始痛了

Feb 26th 2009 | TOKYO
From The Economist print edition

The cops are squeezing the robbers
一个黑帮倒下去,千万个警察站起来



“IN THE old days,” laments the retired mobster, with a broad smile, slicked hair and a heavily tattooed body, “the yakuza served a useful purpose in society to solve civil disputes and keep the streets clean.” He draws on his cigarette, the stub of an amputated little finger visible in his beefy hand. “Now”, he goes on, “it has lost its samurai spirit to moneymaking.”
一个已经“洗手”的老黑手党,梳着大背头,遍身刺青,一脸横笑,不无遗憾地说道:“以前哪,‘雅库扎’可是处理民间纠纷和街头冲突的主力。”他拿起烟抽一口——可以看到肥壮的手上小指少了一截——接着说:“现在啊,他们为了钱,连‘义理’都不要了”。

Or perhaps, the yakuza—Japan’s organised-crime groups that date from the 17th century—are getting squeezed. For most of the post-war period they operated openly: tolerated by the public, used by politicians and protected by police. Crime will happen anyway, went the argument, so better to know whom to call when it crosses the line. In the 1950s ministers and industrialists relied on the mobsters and nationalist groups to quash unions and socialists. The gangs upheld classic Japanese virtues of manliness and loyalty—and paid for mistakes by slicing off one of their fingers in atonement.
这一切的原因可能是:雅库扎,这一17世纪就在日本出现的犯罪组织,现在已被逼入穷途。在战后相当长的时间里,他们得到公众的容忍、受到政客的利用并享有警方的保护,可以公开活动。这一情况产生的逻辑是:犯罪总会发生的,受控制的罪犯总比不受控制的好。在上世纪60年代,政客和企业家们都需要黑社会和右翼分子来平衡工会和共产主义分子的势力。雅库扎以日本传统意思上的美德——坚毅和忠诚自许,办错事时要“切指”谢罪。

But this orderly way of life is fraying. The floundering economy has eaten into revenue from traditional activities that required muscle, such as gambling, prostitution and loan-sharking. To compensate, the groups have ploughed into financial fraud, stock manipulation and cybercrime, giving rise to a new generation of gangster-nerds, more interested in business than blackmail. Still, the yakuza boasts 84,000 members (of whom half are “part-timers”) and is estimated to haul in as much as ¥2 trillion (around $21 billion) annually.
但过去那一套进行不下去了。不景气的经济导致由雅库扎经营的“暴力密集”行业——赌博、色情及高利贷——收入骤减。他们不得不转向经济诈骗、股票操纵及网络犯罪等新形式犯罪以期获利。这一转变使内部一股新势力崛起,他们“生意人”的色彩更浓一些。雅库扎现在约有84000名成员(其中一半是“兼职”),总的年收入据测约有2万亿日元(约210亿美元)。

Moreover, the public has become slightly less accepting after bouts of mob violence, traditionally hidden, that claimed innocent lives. On February 20th around 160 people from Tokyo’s Akasaka district sought a court injunction to bar Inagawa-kai, a big crime syndicate, from occupying an office building, arguing that it might bring violence to the area. In August residents of the city of Kurume sought a similar injunction against a local gang.
同时,由于帮派械斗及私刑倒致的无辜者伤亡也使民众的恶感增加。2月20日,东京赤阪地区的160名群众联名要求法院禁止稻川会——一个大型黑手党组织——进驻当地的办公楼,理由是可能会使治安恶化。8月在久留米市,民众也对当地黑手党做了类似的抵制。

A 1992 anti-mob law clearly defined illegal behaviour and penalised companies with yakuza ties. It also established a non-profit group called the National Centre for the Elimination of Boryokudan (crime syndicates), to advise companies on avoiding the yakuza and rally citizens to complain, as in the recent suits. But the law is not all that it seems. The nationwide centres it created, grumble both senior police and racketeers, provide lucrative sinecures for retired police officers. This recalls amakudari, or “descent from heaven”—the practice of rewarding government officials with cushy, post-retirement jobs in the area of their official responsibility.
1992年通过的一项反黑法案清楚提供了行为非法的判定及对涉黑公司的惩处办法,同时建立了一个非盈利性组织——“暴力团”消解国家中心——来为企业提供“避黑”建议及受理民众投诉。但依法建立的这一组织事实上不是说的那么简单,它为退休的警官提供高收入的闲职。这让人想起了“天下り”——官员空降,即为政府高官提供其职能领域内的高收入闲职作为退休前的奖励。

Companies are “encouraged” to donate to the centres, and to hire retired officers to help them comply with the law. Owners of pachinko-parlours (venues for a popular sort of pinball) and others now hire security firms using former policemen. Having yakuza at the door invites trouble with the law. So companies are, in effect, paying off the cops rather than the mob.
企业被“鼓励”为中心捐款并雇佣退休的官员来帮助其更“合规”。柏青哥弹珠球店等企业现在雇佣的保安公司有许多退休警官。当企业不能靠雅库扎获得保护和安宁时,它们就向警方付保护费。

Many bars and restaurants still prefer the yakuza to the police for handling troublesome customers. The service is better. Still, the breakdown of the traditional order irks the former crime boss. Pondering the changes, he uses the word natsukashii (nostalgia), as the smoke from his cigarette wafts into nothingness.
许多酒吧和餐厅还是喜欢雅库扎而不是警察来应对制造麻烦的客人,雅库扎做的更好一些。传统规则的消失让这个老雅库扎消沉。面对改变,他说了“懐かしい”(怀念过去)这个词,过去好像他手中燃出的烟,慢慢消散。


发表于11:39 | 阅读全文 | 评论 0 | 编辑 | 分享 0朝鲜和韩国:历史战争和和平公园2009-03-02THE KOREAS
朝鲜和韩国

Contested grounds
争议地区

Sep 25th 2008
From The Economist print edition

Of history wars and peace parks
历史战争和和平公园

DISPLAYED in nearly every government office in South Korea is one of two stunning landscapes, sometimes both of them. One is a volcanic mountain, with a turquoise lake in the caldera and forests on its flanks. The other is a pair of rocky islets, black-tailed gulls wheeling around the crags. These are the front lines of South Korea’s history wars.

在韩国,几乎每一个政府办公室都挂着一副风景画,让人眼前一亮。要么是一座火山,火山口上有滩碧绿色的湖,山的两侧是密密的森林。要么是一对岩石岛礁,黑尾巴海鸥围着陡峭的岩石盘旋。有些办公室甚至这两幅画都挂了。这些都是韩国历史上的战争前线。

FLPAGood for gorals对斑羚而言,是个好地方

Emotions ran high this summer over the rocks, known as Dokdo in South Korea and Takeshima in Japan, when the Japanese education ministry reminded textbook writers that they were formally incorporated into Japan in 1905, when Korea was forced to cede the conduct of its foreign policy to Japan. Outraged Koreans claim historical rights to the islets going back more than a millennium.

今年夏天,日本教育部长提醒教材编写人员,1905年,朝鲜被迫放弃对日本的外交政策,竹岛(韩国称之为独岛)[1]即被并入日本。于是,有关独岛归属问题导致双方对立情绪高涨。愤怒的韩国民众称,韩国对该岛拥有主权的历史可以追述至千年以前。

The South Koreans are not laying claim to the volcano, Mount Paektu, which is divided in two by China’s border with North Korea, as is the lake. This was the area of one of Korea’s three founding kingdoms, Koguryo, which flourished between 37BC and 668AD. Koreans have an unshakable belief in their bloodlines, and most insist that holy Mount Paektu is the fount of their culture and myth. Tangun, Korea’s mythical founder, was born on its slopes, and Kim Jong Il, in his official biography, made sure he followed suit.

韩国现在没有对火山(白头山也即吉林长白山)主张主权。这座火山被中朝边境线一分为二。山上的湖泊(我国称天池,是中朝的界湖)就正好坐落在这条边境线上。这个地区曾是奠定朝鲜历史的三个王朝之一——高句丽国的地盘。该古国的活跃时期在公元前37年至公元668年。朝鲜人坚信,他们有高句丽的血统。而且许多朝鲜人也坚持说白头山圣地是他们文化及传说的来源。Tangun,这位朝鲜的神秘奠基人,也生于长白山麓。在金正日官方的人物传记中,对自己的出生,他也要求这样记载。[2]

The problem is a Chinese state history project claiming that Koguryo’s ancestry and culture was Chinese, not Korean. China wants to hold the 2018 winter Olympic games on Paektu and list it as a UNESCO world heritage site. Koreans think China is stealing their mountain and may one day even claim parts of North Korea.

问题是中国的一项国家历史研究项目声称,高句丽的祖先和文化源自中国,而非朝鲜。中国想在长白山上举办2018年冬季奥运会,而且也希望将其列入联合国教科文组织的世界遗产名录。朝鲜人认为中国想要占领他们的山,也许有一天,甚至会对北朝鲜的部分领土主张主权。

History wars are bad news for wildlife. China’s notion of conservation is to build golf courses and theme parks. Hordes of politicians, soldiers and tourists from South Korea now stumble around windswept Dokdo. The government has even planted trees, because the law on maritime claims suggests that trees differentiate an island from a mere islet.

对野生动物而言,历史上的战争都不是好消息。中国的保护理念是建高尔夫球场和主题公园。而成群结队的韩国政府官员、军人以及游客在暴露在风中的独岛周围艰难前行。由于有关战时权力主张的法律规定,岛屿与岛礁的区别在于是否有树,韩国政府甚至在岛上植树。

Another heavily contested piece of ground could set a conservation example. The demilitarised zone (DMZ) between North and South Korea, 4km wide on average, is all that keeps two awesome lines of firepower and hair-trigger soldiery apart. But for any lover of wilderness the view through binoculars from the Seungri mountain observatory is breathtaking. Far below are willow flats and watermeadows, and the meanders of a stream that has not seen a rod in 60 years.

而另一个存在严重争议的地区却树立了一个环境保护的典范。朝鲜和韩国间的隔离区(一个平均4公里宽的区域)隔开了双方具有威慑力的火力线以及一触即发的部队。但是对那些喜欢野外世界的人来说,在Seungri山天文台,透过双筒望远镜看到的景象美丽至极。远方低矮处是长满了柳树的平地以及草甸,一条弯弯曲曲的小溪。小溪上已经60年没见到鱼竿了。

In the DMZ, the wilderness has smothered the human past. Below the observatory, a town and rail terminus that was thriving under Japanese occupation is now a dense wood. The zone is rich with a fauna that has disappeared from most of the rest of north-east Asia: the black-faced spoonbill, of which a total population of only about 2,000 remains; the solitary Manchurian goral (a goat-antelope); and the eagle-owl. An admirable outfit, the DMZ Peace Forum, wants to keep the wilderness from voracious developers when north and south are reconciled. If only the nationalists left all contested ground to those species with the oldest claims.

在隔离区,荒原掩盖了人类过去所做的一切。天文台下,日据时代曾经繁荣一时的小镇(也是一个铁路终点站),现在有许多紧密木材。隔离区还有很多动物,这些动物在东北亚的其它大部分地区已经消失了:黑面琵鷺[3](现在全世界只剩下2000只左右);孤独的远东斑羚(一种山羚羊);猫枭。而与之配套的一个值得尊敬的组织——隔离区和平论坛,希望南北双方和解时,能够保护这片荒原远离贪婪的开发商。但愿各国的爱国人士都能把所有的争议地区留给那些最有权主张领土的古老种族吧!

[1]独岛 (Dokdo 或 Tokdo)日本称竹岛( Take_shima) 位于韩国郁陵岛东面约70公里处,是由被称为“东岛”和“西岛”的两块岩石组成的岛屿。它的面积虽不大,但由于其独特的地理位置,却有着极高的战略价值和经济价值。 多年以来,韩日两国都宣称对此岛拥有主权。目前韩国在实际上控制这一岛屿,占有比较主动的地位,而日本一直都是在努力进行试探性进攻。
  第二次世界大战后,日本战败,联合国最高司令官总司令部把日本占领的连同独岛在内的韩国领土自动地归于大韩民国政府。1953年5月,日本趁朝鲜战争仍在酣战之际,曾派兵一度占领了该岛,并在岛上建立了领土标志碑。
  值得一提的是,有一个韩国男人改变了独岛的历史。1953年7月12日,23岁的洪淳七领导附近的居民组成了“独岛义勇守备队”开赴独岛,将日本军人赶走。至此,独岛完全在韩国的实际控制之下。
[2]金正日 (Kim Jong Il) 1942年2月16日生于中朝边境白头山密营
[3]黑面琵鷺

发表于11:37 | 阅读全文 | 评论 0 | 编辑 | 分享 0共129页 第一页 上一页 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 下一页 最后一页导航

相关文章:
2015年8月经济学人(英汉双语对照)
2015年8月经济学人(英汉双语对照)_院校资料_高等教育_教育专区。2015 年 8 ...在 7 月 15 日一架飞机撞毁了一栋位于斯尼日内的公 寓楼后,乌克兰官方称之...
economist(经济学人)精品文章中英对照
economist(经济学人)精品文章中英对照_英语学习_外语学习_教育专区。Economist 经济...明 年还有 10~15 家公司等着上市。由于亚洲对原材料的巨大需求和不断上涨的...
《经济学人》阅读练习中英对照版50篇_图文
经济学人》阅读练习中英对照版50篇_英语学习_外语学习_教育专区。《经济学人...Page 15 of 177 《经济学家》读译参考 Translated & Edited by Chen Jilong ...
2015经济学人双语阅读
2015经济学人双语阅读_英语学习_外语学习_教育专区。经济学人,英语,翻译,英译...每天都有 15 万人都要去挤这个容量只有人流量一半的车站上下班。但明年,情况将...
经济学人 中英翻译
经济学人 中英翻译_英语学习_外语学习_教育专区。考研...即使排除这些非比寻常的亚洲国 家(下文也将也不予...学习成绩不好的学生在 15 岁的时候带着最 基本的...
经济学人中英对照阅读加练习五十篇
经济学人中英对照阅读加练习五十篇_英语学习_外语学习_教育专区。《经济学家》...and Microsoft’s MSN, Page 15 of 427 《经济学家》读译参考 Translated &...
经济学人中英文版
经济学人中英文版_经济/市场_经管营销_专业资料。Taking its medicine.自尝苦果...消费品公司雀巢的销售收入在瑞士的国内生产总值中占 15%,但其本国 员工在总...
经济学人官方双语汇总
经济学人官方双语汇总_军事/政治_人文社科_专业资料...微软、甲骨文和 Facebook 等科技巨头也有协 同工作...The European Union, for example, is putting 15...
(6-10)《经济学人》中英对照
经济学人中英对照9 14页 免费喜欢此文档的还喜欢 (1-5)《经济学人》中英对...(乔恩?李?安德森《切?格瓦拉:革 命人生》 ) [15]footnote:n.(缩写 fn.)...
(1-5)《经济学人》中英对照
经济学人中英对照2 14页 免费 经济学人中英对照9 14页 免费喜欢此文档的还喜欢 英语学习_(6-10)《经济学人... 18页 免费 经济学人中英对照15 20页 免费 ...
更多相关标签:
经济学人中英对照 | 经济学人中英文对照 | houdini15中英文对照 | ansys15.0中英文对照 | 七日杀15.2中英文对照 | 经济学人中英文 | 经济学人中英 | bios中英文对照表 |