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2015 年 6 月《经济学人》中英双语对照
2015-06-01 处于改革浪潮中的庞大机构 政府官员的经验之谈 Reforming Leviathan 处于改革浪潮中的庞大机构 Mandarin lessons 政府官员的经验之谈 Governments need to rethink how they reward and motivate civil servan

ts 政府需要重新思考如何去奖励和提升公务员的工作动力。 THE French call them hauts fonctionnaires, the Germans Beamte im h?heren Dienst and the British, somewhat more economically, know them as “mandarins”. The senior echelons of civil services are a powerful arm of the state. They implement the reforms dreamed up by politicians, and design public services ranging from welfare systems to prisons. Compared with private-sector bosses, the bureaucrats who manage the public sector tend to be less well paid but have more cushioned lives, with more secure jobs and far less pressure to improve productivity. Now the mandarins face change. 法语中称呼他们为官方人员, 德语叫做高级公务员, 英国则各位简短称呼公务员为政界要员。 公务员的高层人员是国家的一个强大的臂膀。 他们实现政客对于改革的设想, 并构思计划公 共服务,涵盖面从福利制度到监狱。与私营部门的老板相比,负责管理公共部门的官员往往 不太高薪,但拥有更多的缓冲生活,更安全的工作,对于提高工作效率方面,其承受的压力 远不如私营老板。现在的政府高级官员们面临着改变。 There has long been taxpayer fury when big projects go awry. Berlin's new airport is three years overdue and predicted to cost 6 billion (8.1 billion), three times the original estimate. But voters, and thus politicians, are especially intolerant of civil-service inefficiency nowadays. One prompt is austerity. Another is technology, which is changing not only how public services are delivered—think of “massively open online courses” in education—but also the way they can be measured. Social networks enable users to grumble about hospital waiting-times and mathematics results. Perhaps the biggest pressure is the passing of time: private-sector workers are incredulous as to why civil servants should escape the creative destruction that has changed other offices around the world. 长期以来,大项目出差错时纳税人会因而感到十分愤怒。柏林新机场建设已有三年逾期,并 且预计耗资 60 亿欧元(81 亿人民币) ,三倍于原来的预算。但在现今,选民和政客尤其无 法忍受公务员服务效率低下。其中一个提示便是紧缩政策。另一个则是技术,这不仅正在改 变公共服务的提供方式—思考 “大规模开放式在线课程” 的教育—但同时也是在思考他们可 以被评估的方式。社交网络让用户有机会抱怨医院候诊室漫长的等待时间和自己的数学成 绩。 或许最大的压力是时间的流逝: 私营部门的工作人员对于为何公务员要逃避已经改变了 全球政府各部的创造性破坏表示质疑。


The reform of the public sector is a huge project, but people are at the centre of it. Government is a service industry, and there is a basic talent problem. A few civil services—Singapore's is the obvious example—compete with the private sector for the best graduates. But elsewhere even elite departments, such as the US Treasury and Britain's Foreign Office, struggle (or lose high-flyers quickly). The mandarins and their political masters need to change tack. 公共部门的改革是一项庞大的工程,需要以人民为中心。政府是一个服务行业,并且存在一 个基本的人才问题。 一些民事部门—如新加坡的民事部门就是一个明显的例子—他们能够与 私营部门竞争优秀人才。但在其他地方,即使是精英部门,如美国财政部和英国外交部,也 同样存在斗争(或很快失去极高报负者) 。政府官员和他们的政治领导者需要改变策略。 Too many civil servants, especially in continental Europe, swirl around a bureaucratic Gormenghast but rarely leave it. Nearly four-fifths of German senior public servants have been in public administration for more than two decades. The French state under Franois Hollande is governed by a caste of unsackable functionaries, resistant to reform. One reason many officials become stuck is their generous pension deals: making pensions portable should be a priority. But career structures also must adapt. 太多的公务员, 尤其是在欧洲大陆的公务员, 他们漩涡在具有官僚政治的古老王国歌门鬼城 身旁, 但很少会选择离开它。 近五分之四的德国高级公务员已经在公共管理中工作超过二十 年。整个法国处于奥朗德状态,由固若金汤的社会团体所管辖,他们抵制改革。其中一个原 因是, 很多官员被慷慨的养老金交易卡住: 使得养老金可携带成为一个必须考虑的优先事项。 但是,职业结构也必须作出适当改变。 Most civil services still tend to be gerontocracies, where age and seniority are synonymous. New Zealand has dismantled the system of rigid hierarchies and pay-grades that spawned the likes of the phlegmatic Sir Humphrey in the BBC comedy “Yes Minister”. Instead, it appoints departmental chief executives in its ministries, who sign contracts to meet specific targets and can be dismissed if they fail. Singapore's civil servants are frequently sent out to private-sector jobs. Britain has appointed a senior figure from the oil business to run the agency that deals with large-scale state projects. The idea is that private-sector experience in areas such as contract management and negotiation can help avoid disasters like Berlin's airport. 大部分公务员还是倾向于老人统治, 这一词是年龄和资历的同义词。 新西兰已经剔除了坚硬 的等级和付费等级制度,这两种等级产生了类似于冷漠的汉弗莱爵士在 BBC 喜剧中的台词 中“是,首相”这种制度方面的喜好。相反,它任命在其各部委部门的行政首长,负责签订 契约,以达到特定的目标,并在他们失败时可以予以取消。新加坡的公务员被频繁地派遣到 私营部门就业。 英国已任命来自石油行业的资深人物来运行国家大型项目所涉及的机构。 我 们的想法是, 在诸如合同管理和谈判领域私营部门的经验, 可以帮助避免像柏林机场所发生 的灾难。 All this appeals to right-wing politicians. But the corollary of better performance is higher pay. The British government's chief operating officer announced this week that he is leaving for a lucrative commercial job. Singapore, which runs a far leaner government than America, pays its best people 2m a year. No Republican congressman would tolerate that, which is foolish. The cost of higher salaries is offset by saving money on costly consultants to mop up failing projects.

这一切都吸引了右翼政客。 但更好成绩的必然结果是更高的薪水。 英国政府的首席营运官在 这个星期宣布,他将要胜任一份利润丰厚的商务工作。新加坡,其运行比美国更为精简的政 府,付给其最佳胜任者 200 万美元一年的薪酬。没有共和党议员能够容忍这一点,他们认为 这是愚蠢的想法。 更高的工资成本是由节约资金成本聘请高昂费用的顾问以扫荡失败的项目 而抵消的。 There is one area where less change would be useful. To plan careers, you need a long-term strategy—and democracy throws up change every election. In Britain health-care officials talk about successive “re-disorganisations”. One reason for authoritarian Singapore's success is that its voters have miraculously always chosen the party founded by Lee Kuan Yew since he took control in 1959. Voters elsewhere are less obliging. New Zealand has tried to counter this by boosting the powers of a state-services commissioner, whose duties include one of lasting “stewardship”. That could be a useful model for elsewhere—especially America, where too many senior positions are filled by political appointees (who then take months to get confirmed by Congress). Mandarinates have their faults, but somebody needs to keep Leviathan working. 在有的地方发生更少的变化是有用的。 要规划职业生涯, 你需要一个长期的战略—民主党在 每一次选举中都抛出改变的承诺。在英国,其卫生保健官员谈相继出现的计划混乱。独裁新 加坡的成功原因之一是在于它的选民已经奇迹般地始终选择由李光耀在 1959 年掌权开始创 办的一党。 其他地方的投票人则没有表现如此殷勤。 新西兰一直试图通过提高一个国家的服 务专员的权力而抵制这种情况,这些服务专员的职责包括其中之一的持久的“管家”权力。 这可能是在其他地方是十分有用的模式—尤其对于美国, 在那里太多的高级职位由政治性任 命的官员填补了有益的模式(他们需要数月才能通过国会得到证实) 。官职有其缺点,但需 要有人来维持庞大体系的运作。 2015-06-03 警察与紧缩 下降趋势 The police and austerity 警察与紧缩 Down beat 下降趋势 Budget cuts may not affect crime—but they will change politics 削减预算可能不会影响犯罪—但能改变政治 Good old-fashioned policing 传统治安维持方式 POLICING in England and Wales is in crisis and things are about to get nasty. That, at least, is what the coppers would have you believe. Ahead of the annual conference this week of the Police Federation, the policemen's union, Steve White, its leader, cautioned that budget cuts could mean a move towards more“paramilitary” policing, with officers using water cannons, rubber bullets and tear gas. Theresa May, the home secretary, accused him of scaremongering. Mr White's logic is

certainly fuzzy. But his warnings highlight the deteriorating relations between the police and their traditional allies, the Conservatives. 英格兰和威尔士的警务正处于危机之中, 并且情况还会越来越糟。 至少警察会让你相信这一 点。在本周警察联合会(警察联盟)的年度会议之前,联合会领导人 Steve White 警告说预 算削减意味着更多警察会朝着用高压水枪、橡皮子弹和催泪瓦斯行动这类更加“准军事”的 警务发展。内政大臣特里萨·梅指责他是危言耸听。White 的逻辑确实有失偏颇。但是他的 警告却表明了警察与其传统的盟友保守派关系的恶化。 Police today are warier of heavy tactics than they once were. Chris Donaldson, a retired police officer, was on the streets of Tottenham in 1985, when riots broke out around the Broadwater Farm estate. He was back there in 2011 when disturbances erupted after police shot and killed Mark Duggan, a suspected gang member. Three decades ago, police were far more willing—sometimes overly so—to use force, says Mr Donaldson. In the 1980s, at the height of battles with striking miners, the police “would definitely be instructed to charge at times,” says Peter Neyroud, a former chief constable now at Cambridge University. 如今的警察相较以前在使用战术上更为精妙。1985 年当布罗德沃特农场庄园发生暴动时, Chris Donaldson(现在已经退休)就在附近的托特纳姆的街道上。他于 2011 年又回到那里, 当时警察开枪打死一名疑似帮派成员 Mark Duggan 而引发骚乱。Donaldson 说,30 年前,警 察更愿意——甚至有时过度—使用武力。 在 20 世纪 80 年代这个矿工罢工的高潮时期, 警察 “肯定会时常奉命控告” ,Peter Neyroud 说道,他是前任警察局长,现在在剑桥大学工作。 Today they are more reluctant to use such strategies. Officers try to to contain public disorder with tactics such as kettling, whereby demonstrators are confined to a small area. Rather than leading to paramilitary-style policing, declining ranks of officers could make negotiation between police and protesters more common. Short on numbers, cops policing protests will have to behave even more carefully to avoid precipitating trouble. And tougher tactics are “largely anathema to the British police”, says Tim Newburn, a criminologist at the London School of Economics, with senior officers unconvinced such tactics are effective and certain they are unpopular. 而现在警察都不太愿意使用这样的方式。警察试图用灌壶(把示威者限制在小范围的战术) 等策略来制止公共秩序混乱。 低级别的警官促成警察和反抗者之间的谈判更为常见, 而不是 采用准军事风格来维持治安。由于警察数量减少,警察在处理抗议活动时不得不更加小心, 以免引起麻烦。英国伦敦经济学院一位犯罪学家 Tim Newburn 说严格的战术“很大程度上 是英国警方的诅咒” ,因为高级警官不相信这种策略是行之有效的,也不认为它们是受欢迎 的。 Even after the coalition government's cuts of 20% to police budgets, and an 11% fall in officer numbers since 2010, by historical standards there are still a lot of police about. Bobbies are more numerous today than in the mid-1990s, when law-breaking was at its peak. 即使自 2010 年来,联合政府削减 20%的警方预算以及减少 11%的警力,按历史标准还有许 多政策和预算和警察有关。相比违法的高峰期—20 世纪 90 年代,如今警察的数量还是要多 得多。 The police have long resisted reductions to their budgets. But few would have thought the fiercest cuts, harshest criticism and clearest diminution in their political clout would come under the Tories,

so long the party of law and order. With David Cameron, the prime minister, determined to save money and reform what he once called the “last great unreformed public service”, the once-close relationship between the Tories and Britain's law-enforcers has soured. 警察总是抵制削减他们的预算。但是没人想到,最大幅度的削减、最残酷的批评以及警察明 显下降的政治影响力会发生在一向重视法律和秩序的保守党执政时期。 首相卡梅伦下定决心 要节省开支,并且决心改革他曾经称作 “最后一个大型的未被改革的公共服务” ,这让保守 党与英国警察一度亲密的关系遭到破坏。 2015-06-05 乌克兰的前线 渴望平静 Ukraine's front line 乌克兰的前线 Longing for silence 渴望平静 Diplomacy fails the folk on the edge 外交政策未能使民众满意 A subterranean life (住在地下的生活) LYUBA VOEVCHIK lives underground. Her neighbourhood, the Petrovsky district of Donetsk, is close to eastern Ukraine's front line. When shells began landing on her street last summer, she moved to the dank basement of a local cultural centre, where she and her two youngest sons share a narrow bed with faded pink sheets. Frightened and exhausted, Ms Voevchik has not slept at home in nearly a year. The latest ceasefire has provided little solace. “They should hush up,” Ms Voevchik says with a sigh. “They promised.” LYUBA VOEVCHIK 女士住在顿涅茨克的彼得罗夫斯基区的地下室里,邻近乌克兰东部前 线。去年夏天,炮弹开始落在她家门口的街道上时,她搬去了当地文化中心潮湿的地下室, 在那里,她和她两个年幼的儿子一起睡在一张狭窄的床上,床上铺着褪色了的粉色床单。既 惊恐万分又筋疲力尽的 VOEVCHIK 女士几乎一年没有睡在家里了。最近的停火给她带来了 一丝安慰。VOEVCHIK 女士叹了口气说道: “他们应该加快速度,他们保证过。 ” Those promises were the subject of high-level talks between Russia and America last week. John Kerry, America's secretary of state, conferred with Vladimir Putin, Russia's president. Victoria Nuland, another American envoy, shuttled between Kievand Moscow, urging compliance with the faltering Minsk peace plan. 这些承诺是上周俄罗斯和美国高层谈话的结果。 美国国务卿约翰· 克里与俄罗斯总统弗拉基 米尔·普京一起商讨此事。另一位美国使者,维多利亚·纽兰,往返于基辅与莫斯科之间, 督促他们遵守摇摇欲坠的明斯克和平计划。 But as diplomats keep talking, the guns keep sputtering and civilians like Ms Voevchik keep

suffering. The United Nations estimates that the war has left 5m people in need of humanitarian help. Of the more than 6,000 killed since last April, most have been civilians. Some 2m people have been displaced, and countless more reduced to lives of basic survival. Worst hit are the sick, the elderly and children. 但随着外交官们谈判的继续,双方仍然在交火。像 Voevchik 女士这样的百姓一直饱受磨难。 据联合国预计,战争使得五百万人民需要人道主义援助。去年四月以来,超过六千人死亡, 其中大多数都是平民百姓。 大约两百万人流离失所, 无数的人只能勉强维持基本生存。 病人、 老人和孩子受到最大的创伤。 The woes of front-line residents have mounted as the authorities who are supposed to succour them vanish. Ukraine's government has stopped financing the separatist-held territories (including pension payments and doctors' salaries), and has offered haphazard help to the internally displaced on its side of the lines. 原本应该提供帮助的当局消失后, 前线居民的痛苦日益增加。 乌克兰政府已经停止资助在分 裂分子控制领土上的人(包括退休金和医生的薪水) ,并且只为分界线境内流离失所的人们 提供随机帮助。 The separatist leadership has proved capable of little more than waging war. Russia's aid to the region has been heavy on guns and light on butter. “It turned out that nobody cares about the people,”says Evgeniy Shibalov, co-founder of Responsible Citizens, a volunteer-run humanitarian aid group in Donetsk.The outside world has ignored the plight of theDonbas region, treating war as a geopolitical rather than a humanitarian problem. Of the $316m the UN requested for aid toUkraine this year, only a quarter has been pledged. 分裂分子领导人已被证明只有能力发动战争。俄罗斯为乌克兰提供的救援中,多数为枪支, 而不是生活供给。Responsible Citizens,这个由志愿者经营的人道主义援助小组位于顿涅茨 克,其共同创始人 Evgeniy Shibalov 表示: “结果居然没有人关心人民。 ”世界忽视了顿巴斯 地区的困境,把战争看成地理政治问题,而不是人道主义问题。联合国要求今年给乌克兰提 供 3 亿 1 千 6 百万美元的救助,而只有四分之一到位。 Humanitarian organisations and volunteers have stepped in. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) opened five offices in the area. Medecins Sans Frontiè res (MSF), a health charity, has sent dozens of doctors. During the heaviest fighting, Responsible Citizens delivered aid to “red zone” areas which others deemed too dangerous. Pomozhem, a foundation started by Rinat Akhmetov, Ukraine's richest oligarch and a native of Donetsk, distributes monthly food handouts to over 800,000 people on both sides of the lines. More still sign up every month. The foundation's 12kg package of essentials like salt, sugar, pasta and flour “helps us survive in this nightmare”, says one pensioner from Donetsk's Kievskiy district, which borders the city's heavily bombed airport. 人道主义组织和志愿者们已经介入。 国际红十字会在乌克兰开设了五个办事处。 一个健康慈 善机构 Medecins Sans Frontières (MSF)已经往乌克兰派遣了几十名医生。在战斗最激烈的时 候,Responsible Citizens 小组给“红色地带” ,这个其他人视作危险地区的区域提供救援。 Rinat Akhmetov 是乌克兰最富有的寡头,也是顿涅茨克本地人,由他创建的 Pomozhem 基金 会,每个月为前线八十多万人提供食品救济,救助人数每个月还在不断增加。Pomozhem 基 金会用于运送像盐,糖,意大利面和面粉这些生活必需品的十二公斤包裹“帮助我们在噩梦


中存活下来” , 一位来自顿涅茨克 Kievskiy 区的老人如是说。 Kievskiy 区毗邻被严重轰炸的 机场区域。 When war was raging, aid workers focused on treating the wounded and evacuating civilians. Now, as fighting has ebbed (though not fully ceased), attention has turned to securing medical and food supplies and rebuilding damaged homes. Ukrainian government restrictions have exacerbated supply shortages, limited civilian access to aid and deepened resentment in separatist-held areas. Pensioners can only retrieve funds in government-controlled territory, and many are physically or economically unable to get there. To cross the lines, residents need a pass from the Kiev authorities; that can take months. The rebel authorities pay pensions sporadically. 战争肆虐时,救援工人专注于治疗伤者并撤出群众。现在,随着战争消退(虽然没有完全停 止) ,注意力已经转向确保医疗和食物供应,以及重建受损的房屋。乌克兰政府已经加重了 对供应短缺的限制,限制群众接受救助,加深对分裂分子控制区域的不满。老人只能在政府 控制的领土领取退休金,而许多人由于身体或经济原因无法到达那里。要想越过分界线,居 民需要一张由基辅当局批准的通行证,而这往往需要等待数月。反叛政府偶尔支付养老金。 Other problems will linger long after all fire ceases. “When the conflict stops, it doesn't mean life goes completely back to normal,” says David Nash of MSF in Donetsk. Unexploded ordnance hides along country roads. Psychological trauma haunts daily life. At one school near the front, childish drawings adorn the wall. Subjects include two soldiers running through a field beside two tanks under a receding sun, an old woman and a boy huddled with their cat and dog in front of a burning home, and two children gripping their mother in candlelight, with the words, “Give us back the quiet!” 其他问题将在全面停火后仍然持续存在。 来自顿涅茨克的 MSF 机构的 David Nash 表示: “冲 突停止后,并不意味着生活将完全回归正常。 ”未爆炸武器藏于国家道路中。心里创伤影响 着人们的日常生活。在一所靠近前线的学校里,稚嫩的绘画装饰着墙壁。夕阳西下,两名战 士穿过两架坦克旁的一片田野;一位老妇人和一个男孩与猫和狗一起蜷缩于燃烧的房屋前; 两名儿童在烛光中紧抓着他们的母亲,嘴里说到: “让我们重回安静的生活! ” 2015-06-07 社会的改变 弱男子 Social change 社会的改变 The weaker sex 弱男子 Blue-collar men in rich countries are in trouble. They must learn to adapt 在发达国家的蓝领男性群体正处于困境中,他们必须学会适应。 AT FIRST glance the patriarchy appears to be thriving. More than 90% of presidents and prime ministers are male, as are nearly all big corporate bosses. Men dominate finance, technology, films, sports, music and even stand-up comedy. In much of the world they still enjoysocial and legal

privileges simply because they have a Y chromosome. So it might seem odd to worry about the plight of men. 父系社会现在咋一看似乎正兴盛。 超过 90%的国家总统总理, 和几乎所有大型公司的大 boss 都是男性。男性统治着经济,科技,企业,体育,音乐,甚至连说相声的都基本是男的。在 大多数国家里男人仅仅因为拥有一条 Y 染色体便享有在社会和法律上的特权,这样看来, 担心男性的“悲催命运”般的困境似乎是在杞人忧天。 Yet there is plenty of cause for concern. Men cluster at the bottom as well as the top. They are far more likely than women to be jailed, estranged from their children, or to kill themselves. They earn fewer university degrees than women. Boys in the developed world are 50% more likely to flunk basic maths, reading and science entirely. 但有却又大量的原由让人不得不担心。男性群体从渣男到精英男,他们在被关进监狱啊,被 他们的孩子疏远嫌弃啊, 或者自杀率啊都远远大于女性, 却在取得更多的大学学位上败给了 女性。在发达国家中,有 50%左右的男孩会在基础数学,阅读和科学学科上挂掉。 One group in particular is suffering. Poorly educated men in rich countries have had difficulty coping with the enormous changes in the labour market and the home over the past half-century. As technology and trade have devalued brawn, less-educated men have struggled to find a role in the workplace. Women, on the other hand, are surging into expanding sectors such as health care and education, helped by their superior skills. As education has become more important, boys have also fallen behind girls in school (except at the very top). Men who lose jobs in manufacturing often never work again. And men without work find it hard to attract a permanent mate. The result, for low-skilled men, is a poisonous combination of no job, no family and no prospects. 在男性群体中又有一类人尤其遭罪。 在过去的半个世纪里, 发达国家里的受教育程度低的男 性已经非常难应对发生了巨变的劳工市场和家庭。 现代技术革新和贸易已经使原先的靠劳力 形式的肌肉男的价值直线下降,缺少教育的男性,不得不在职场中苦苦挣扎,才能博得一席 之地。 相反的, 女性却依靠着自身出众的技能, 在像医疗卫生和教育这样的领域里大放异彩。 教育已经变成更重要的事情,而男孩却学校里被女孩甩在了身后(尖端领域学科除外) 。从 工厂失业的男性常从此不再去工作。 而没有工作的男性会发现去吸引永久的伴侣是件非常难 的事。由此导致低技术的男性被无工作,无家庭,无前景的“三无”剧毒环环围住。 From nuclear families to fissile ones 从核心家庭到易碎家庭 Those on the political left tend to focus on economics. Shrinking job opportunities for men, they say, are entrenching poverty and destroying families. In America pay for men with only a high-school certificate fell by 21% in real terms between 1979 and 2013; for women with similar qualifications it rose by 3%. Around a fifth of working-age American men with only a high-school diploma have no job. 支持左翼 的人倾向于专注于经济,他们认为减少男性工作的机会会加剧贫穷,并,并摧毁 家庭。在美国,只有高中学历的男性的实际收入,从 1979 年到 2013 年减低了 21%,而同 等学历的女性,在此期间的实际收入却提高了 3%。约有 5 分之一的只有高中学历的处在工 作适龄的男性,处在失业中。


Those on the right worry about the collapse of the family. The vast majority of women would prefer to have a partner who does his bit both financially and domestically. But they would rather do without one than team up with a layabout, which may be all that is on offer: American men without jobs spend only half as much time on housework and caring for others as do women in the same situation, and much more time watching television. 支持右翼的人担心着家庭的崩溃。 绝大多数的女性倾向于和愿兼顾家里财政收入职能和家务 劳动职能的男性成为两口子。她们宁愿单身也不愿随便和一个游手好闲的卢瑟勉强过一辈 子, 而这是有依据的: 美国失业男性仅仅只付出同等条件下失业女性的一半的时间来做家务 事和照顾彼此的生活,这些男人会花更多的时间来看电视。 Hence the unravelling of working-class families. The two-parent family, still the norm among the elite, is vanishing among the poor. In rich countries the proportion of births outside marriage has trebled since 1980, to 33%. In some areas where traditional manufacturing has collapsed, it has reached 70% or more. Children raised in broken homes learn less at school, are more likely to drop out and earn less later on than children from intact ones. They are also not very good at forming stable families of their own. 因此工人阶级的家庭变的更易解体。 双亲家庭这种形式还是精英阶层的标配, 而这种家庭形 式却在穷人中正在消失。在发达国家,非婚生子占新生儿的比重比 1980 年高出了 3 倍,已 经达到了 33%。而在一些传统制造业崩坏的地区,这一比例达到 70%甚至更高。生活在破 碎家庭里的孩子比起一般家庭的孩子而言,在学校里会学的更少,更可能辍学和收入较低。 同时,因为不善于处理家庭问题,他们自己日后的家庭也趋于不稳定(简言之单亲家庭的孩 子长大后更易于组成新的单亲家庭) 。 These two sides often talk past each other. But their explanations are not contradictory: both economics and social change are to blame, and the two causes reinforce each other. Moreover, these problems are likely to get worse. Technology will disrupt more industries, creating benefits for society but rendering workers who fail to update their skills redundant. The OECD, a think-tank, predicts that the absolute number of single-parent households will continue to rise in nearly all rich countries. Boys who grow up without fathers are more likely to have trouble forming lasting relationships, creating a cycle of male dysfunction. 这两种政治倾向的讨论话题往往会相互交叉重叠。 但二者的观点却并不矛盾: 经济状况和社 会这二者的变革都是造成此类现状的原因,而这二者还互为因果,形成恶性循环。此外,这 些问题可能变得更糟。科技将瓦解更多的行业,为社会创造更多的价值,但也将使更多的无 法升级自身技能的劳动者失业。 经济合作与发展组织里的一个诸葛天团预测单亲家庭的比 例定会继续在所有发达国家中上升。 在没有父性角色的家庭长大的男孩, 将更可能不能处理 好长久关系 (如夫妻关系) 以至于形成新的单亲家庭, 由此形成一个男性功能紊乱的死循环。 Tinker, tailor, soldier, hairdresser 锅匠,裁缝,士兵和美发师 What can be done? Part of the solution lies in a change in cultural attitudes. Over the past generation, middle-class men have learned that they need to help with child care, and have changed their behaviour. Working-class men need to catch up. Women have learned that they can

be surgeons and physicists without losing their femininity. Men need to understand that traditional manual jobs are not coming back, and that they can be nurses or hairdressers without losing their masculinity. 那么问题来了,我们能做什么呢?其一在于改变文化态度。在过去的一代,中产阶层的男士 知晓了他们需要帮忙照看小孩, 并由此改变了他们的行为。 工人阶层的男士们需要加紧脚步 赶上来了。 女士知晓了她们可以成为外科医师和物理学家而不失其女性魅力。 男人们需要明 白传统的体力工作一去不复返,他们可以成为护士或美发师而不失其男性霸气侧漏之美。 Policymakers also need to lend a hand, because foolish laws are making the problem worse. America reduces the supply of marriageable men by locking up millions of young males for non-violent offences and then making it hard for them to find work when they get out (in Georgia, for example, felons are barred from feeding pigs, fighting fires or working in funeral homes). A number of rich countries discourage poor people from marrying or cohabiting by cutting their benefits if they do. 政府决策人也需搭把手, 因为愚蠢的法令会令问题变得更糟。 美国减少了对被关押的以百万 数计的非暴力犯罪的处于适婚年龄的年轻男子的支持, 并在他们出狱后找工作这种事上还要 制绊脚石造(以乔治亚州为例,罪犯被禁止从事养猪,救火或在殡葬馆工作) 。在一些发达 国家, 为了阻止穷人结婚或者同居这一目的, 通过如果他们这么干的话就砍掉他们的福利这 种手段来达到。 Even more important than scrapping foolish policies is retooling the educational system, which was designed in an age when most men worked with their muscles. Politicians need to recognise that boys'underachievement is a serious problem, and set about fixing it. Some sensible policies that are good for everybody are particularly good for boys. Early-childhood education provides boys with more structure and a better chance of developing verbal and social skills. Countries with successful vocational systems such as Germany have done a better job than Anglo-Saxon countries of motivating non-academic boys and guiding them into jobs, but policymakers need to reinvent vocational education for an age when trainees are more likely to get jobs in hospitals than factories. 不过比起废弃愚蠢的政策,改革设计于大多数男人都是用肌肉(而非脑)工作的年代的教育 系统显得更为重要。 政治家门应该意识到男孩们的学习成绩不良师一个很严峻的问题, 并应 立足于改善之。一些明智的政策是为每个人都好,特别是对男孩。早期儿童教育会提供男孩 们更系统并更能更好的发展他们的口语能力和社会技能。 有着成功的职业教育系统的国家如 德国,在鼓励男孩去学术化,重职业化,并指导他们工作上,已经做的比起盎格鲁-撒克逊 国家而言要好的多了。 但政策制定者应将恢复职业教育的重心放在使受训者更倾向于日后在 医院工作而不是在工厂工作这种时代要求上。 More generally, schools need to become more boy-friendly. They should recognise that boys like to rush around more than girls do: it’s better to give them lots of organised sports and energy-eating games than to dose them with Ritalin or tell them off for fidgeting. They need to provide more male role models: employing more male teachers in primary schools will both supply boys with a male to whom they can relate and demonstrate that men can be teachers as well as firefighters. 更广泛而言, 学校需要变得更亲男孩化一些。 他们应该意识到男孩比起女孩而言就是会更可


能到处闯祸: 比起给他们吃药或告诫他们不要乱动而言, 最好还是提供给他们一些有组织的 运动和耗费精力的游戏。他们需要男性榜样角色:在小学阶段,雇佣更多的男性教师,这不 但可以给男孩子提供他们可以认同的男性角色, 还可以为男人可以像成为消防员一样的成为 教师提供实证。 The growing equality of the sexes is one of the biggest achievements of the post-war era: people have greater opportunities than ever before to achieve their ambitions regardless of their gender. But some men have failed to cope with this new world. It is time to give them a hand. 男女越来越平等是战后我们取得的重大成就之一: 比起以前, 现今人们不论性别都可以拥有 更好的机会去实现他们的梦想。 但是一些男士未能适应这个新的世界, 是时候对他们伸出援 手了。 2015-06-09 美国的公司税 如何阻止歪曲的误解 Corporate tax in America 美国的公司税 How to stop the inversion perversion 如何阻止歪曲的误解 Restricting companies from moving abroad is no substitute for corporate-tax reform 限制公司出境并不能成为公司税改革的替代品 ECONOMIC refugees have traditionally lined up to get into America. Lately, they have been lining up to leave. In the past few months, half a dozen biggish companies have announced plans to merge with foreign partners and in the process move their corporate homes abroad. The motive is simple: corporate taxes are lower in Ireland, Britain and, for that matter, almost everywhere else than they are in America. 经济难民历来都是排着队进美国的。然而 最近他们却开始排队离开。在过去的几个月里, 许多较大的公司已经宣布计划与外国合作伙伴合并, 并在这个过程中把他们的企业转移到国 外。它们的动机很简单:从企业税的角度考虑,不管是爱尔兰、英国还是机会其他的任何国 家都比美国的要低。 In Washington, DC, policymakers have reacted with indignation. Jack Lew, the treasury secretary, has questioned the companies'patriotism and called on Congress to outlaw such transactions. His fellow Democrats are eager to oblige, and some Republicans are willing to listen. 在华盛顿特区,政策制定者们表现的愤懑不已。财政部长杰克·卢表示质疑这些公司是否爱 国并呼吁国会取缔此类交易。 他的民主党同僚们也表示认同, 而一些共和党人也原意听取意 见。 The proposals are misguided. Tightening the rules on corporate “inversions”, as these moves are called, does nothing to deal with the reason why so many firms want to leave: America has the rich world's most dysfunctional corporate-tax system. It needs fundamental reform, not new

complications. 这些提议有着误导性。加强对企业的这些所谓的“转位”规则,却不能解释为什么这么多的 企业想要离开:在富裕国家里,美国拥有最不正常的企业税制。它需要的是根本性的改革, 而不是新的并发症。 America's corporate tax has two horrible flaws. The first is the tax rate, which at 35% is the highest among the 34 mostly rich-country members of the OECD. Yet it raises less revenue than the OECD average thanks to myriad loopholes and tax breaks aimed at everything from machinery investment to NASCAR race tracks. Last year these breaks cost $150 billion in forgone revenue, more than half of what America collected in total corporate taxes. 美国的企业税有两个可怕的漏洞。首先是税率,35%的税率是经合组织 34 个最富裕成员国 中最高的。 然而, 它的收益却比经合组织的平均水平要低, 这是由无数准备投入到 NASCAR 赛道机械投资带来的漏洞和税收减免造成的。 在去年损失的收入中, 减免的税收就占了 1500 亿美元,超过美国征得的公司税总额的一半。 The second flaw is that America levies tax on a company's income no matter where in the world it is earned. In contrast, every other large rich country taxes only income earned within its borders. Here, too, America's system is absurdly ineffective at collecting money. Firms do not have to pay tax on foreign profits until they bring them back home. Not surprisingly, many do not: American multinationals have some $2 trillion sitting on their foreign units'balance-sheets, and growing. 第二个漏洞就是不管公司在哪里获得的收入,美国都会对它征税。相反,在其它任意一个发 达国家,只会对公司在境内获得的收入征税。在这方面,美国的制度对征集税费所取得的效 果甚微。只有当公司把境外收益带回国内时,它们才不得不交税。毫不奇怪,很多公司都没 有交税: 美国跨国公司把 2 万亿美元的资产都划到它们国外公司的资产负债表中, 而且越来 越多。 All this imposes big costs on the economy. The high rate discourages investment and loopholes distort it, because decisions are driven by tax considerations rather than a project's economic merits. The tax rate companies actually pay varies wildly, depending on their type of business and the creativity of their lawyers: some pay close to zero, others the full 35%. 所有这些都会加大经济成本。 由于作出的决定是从税收角度出发, 而非一个项目的经济利益 角度, 高税率和税率漏洞都不利于投资。 公司被征得的税率取决于它们的业务种类和律师的 创造力:一些几乎不需交税,而有些则高达 35%。 Twenty years ago inversions were rare. But as other countries chopped their rates and America's stayed the same, the incentive to flee grew. Until a decade ago Bermuda and other tax havens were the destination of choice, until Congress banned inversions where less than 20% of the company changed hands. Democrats have proposed expanding that prohibition to any transaction where less than 50% of the company changes hands—so an American company that bought a smaller foreign firm could not reincorporate abroad if its original shareholders remained in charge. Such a ban would be at best a temporary palliative. An American company paying higher taxes than its foreign competitors has a powerful incentive to find a way around the rules. Consultants are already coming up with dodges in case this proposal becomes law. 由于二十年前,税收倒置不常见。但是随着其它国家削减它们的税收,美国保持不变,越来


越多的公司逃税。直到十天前,百慕达等避税天堂成为首选的目的地,直到国会取消少于公 司现金转手 20%的税收倒置。民主党提议,将禁止公司现金转手扩大到少于 50%—所以一 个收购了国外小公司的美国公司, 如果原股东仍对公司负责, 那么该公司不能在国外重新组 合。这种禁令暂时是很好的,但是却不能治本。一个比国外竞争者要上缴更多税收的美国公 司,有更大的动力去发现身边的规则。如果这个建议变成法律条文,顾问已经想出了逃避的 方法。 Home, sweeter home 家,更甜蜜的家 The real solution is to lower the corporate rate, eliminate tax breaks and move America from a worldwide system to a territorial one. Barack Obama has proposed a reform that cuts the rate to 28% but keeps the worldwide reach. Dave Camp, a Republican congressman, has plumped for 25%, the OECD average, and a shift to a territorial system, instead. 真正的解决办法是降低企业税率, 取消税收减免, 将美国从一个世界范围的体系转移到局部 地区。奥巴马提议将税率降低到 28,但要在全球范围进行改革。相反,共和党国会议员大 卫·卡普坚决支持 25%,达到经合组织的平均水平,并转移到一个局部系统。 It should be possible to bridge the differences. But both sides have tied the subject to other issues. Mr Obama insists that corporate-tax reform must also raise more money to spend on things like public infrastructure, which the Republicans oppose; they, in turn, want to package it with cuts in personal tax rates, which Mr Obama is loth to accept. Thus, nothing happens. 它应该可以弥补差异。但是双方都将这一主题牵涉到其它问题上。奥巴马坚持认为,企业税 改革也必须筹集更多的钱用在类的东西的公共基础设施, 其中共和党人反对; 反过来, 他们, 想把它用在个人所得税税率削减包,奥巴马却很不情愿接受。因此,没有取得进展。 The two sides should drop their conditions and hammer out a stand-alone corporate-tax reform that reduces the rate and broadens the base. Until then, expect the line-up of corporate migrants to grow. 双方应放弃他们的条件, 并制定出一个独立的法人税改革, 降低税率, 扩大基地。 在此之前, 期待企业移民的快速增长。 2015-06-11 德国左派的胜利 图林根州的十一月革命 Germany's far left 德国左派的胜利 Thuringia's November revolution 图林根州的十一月革命 It may become the first state run by the heirs of East Germany's communists 图林根州也许会成为第一个由东德共产党继承者执政的联邦州


Ramelow on the high road to power 拉梅罗可谓平步青云 NEXT weekend Germany celebrates the 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. Yet a few days before that, Die Linke (The Left), the party that descends from the communists who ran the old East Germany, may take charge of one of reunified Germany's 16 states (Thuringia) for the first time. 下个周末,德国将庆祝柏林墙倒塌 25 周年。然而在几天前,源于前东德共产党的德国左翼 党可能第一次执政图林根州—德国十六州之一。 The mainstream parties treat The Left as pariahs in the federal Bundestag. The party jeers from the backbenches and fights internal vendettas. It hates capitalism and wants to scrap NATO. In debates over Ukraine many Leftists have blamed America more than Russia's Vladimir Putin. Their parliamentary leader, Gregor Gysi, refuses to call the East German regime an “unjust state”. 左党一直被主流政党视为德国联邦议院的贱民, 因为其后座议员的地位以及党内斗争而受到 其他政党的嘲笑。他们厌恶资本主义并打算让北约解体。在乌克兰之争中, 许多左派人士 倾向于指责美国而不是俄罗斯。左党的议会领袖 Gregor Gysi 拒绝称东德政权是一个“不公 正的国家” 。 In state and local governments in eastern Germany, however, The Left has become a home for many Ossis (Easterners), who tend to be apolitical and feel vaguely frustrated. They vote Left partly for reasons of “Ostalgie”. In Brandenburg The Left governs boringly as junior partner in a “red-red” coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD). But Thuringia presents a new opportunity. In its election in September the Christian Democrats (CDU), the party of Chancellor Angela Merkel, came first, with 33%. But The Left came a strong second with 28%. It could now eke out a tiny majority if it combined with the other two left-leaning parties: the SPD and the Greens. 但是在东德的州政府和地方政府中,左党变成了 Ossis (东德人)的大本营,东德人似乎不关 心政治,茫然失落。他们以“东德情结”为由给左党投票。在勃兰登堡,左党以“红红”联 盟中社会民主党人(SPD)的新合伙人身份进行沉闷无趣的统治管理。但是图林根提供了一 个新的机遇。 在 9 月份的选举中, 以德国总理安吉拉· 默克尔为领袖的基民盟(CDU), 以 33% 的选票位列第一。左党来势汹汹,以 28%的支持率暂居第二。如果左党可以和其他两个左 倾政党:社民党和绿党联合的话,就能以微小的优势成为多数党。 To many on Germany's centre-left such a “red-red-green” alliance is the holy grail at the federal level to replace governments led by Mrs Merkel. In Thuringia (as in the rest of Germany) the CDU rules in coalition with the SPD. The SPD has paid dearly there, winning a meagre 12% of the vote in September. So the state's Social Democrats want to try joining with The Left and the Greens instead. Thuringia's 4,300 SPD members are expected to say yes to the idea on November 4th. The Left could lead its first-ever state government by December. 对于那些支持中左派“红红绿”联盟的人来说,以默克尔为首的政府下台真是一件在联邦层 次大快人心的事情。图林根州(德国其他州也一样)由基民盟和社民党联合执政。社民党在 图林根州付出了高昂的代价,却仅仅在 9 月的选举中获得了微薄的 12%的选票。所以该州 的社民党转而联合左党和绿党。 图林根州中 4300 社民党人想在 11 月 4 号对这个想法表示支 持。如果这样,左党可能在 12 月份首次执政联邦州。

Its premier would be Bodo Ramelow. A western transplant in Thuringia, he personally brings no baggage from East German times. And although he was a firebrand unionist once, he counts as a moderate by The Left's standards. Thuringians fret less about him than about the stability of a government that would have only a one-seat majority. 左党的领袖将会是拉梅罗。 受图林根西德文化的影响, 拉梅罗个人行事并不受前东德色彩的 影响。尽管他曾经是极具煽动性的工会主义者,但按左党标准看来却是一个温和派。相比于 拉梅罗,图林根州人更担心一席多数政府的稳定问题。 The overarching question is whether a red-red-green government in Thuringia could foreshadow a similar experiment in the Bundestag (albeit with an SPD chancellor). It would be much harder to do in national politics, where foreign and security policy cleaves a wide gulf between the two red parties. And yet the SPD is in a terrible bind. Increasingly, it merely holds the stirrups for others to mount: Mrs Merkel in Berlin, now Mr Ramelow in Erfurt. The SPD's thirst for national power may yet force it to turn to The Left in the Bundestag. 现在首要的问题在于出现在图林根的红红绿政府是否同样会出现在联邦议会中 (尽管现在由 社民党执政) 。这种情况在国家政治中更难实现,因为这两个红色政党在外交和安全政策上 存在巨大的鸿沟。 但社民党处于可怕的窘境中。 它逐渐让其他政党顺势上位: 柏林的基民盟, 现在埃尔福特的左党。社民党党对国家权力的极度渴望可能会迫使他转向联邦议院的左党。 2015-06-13 阿根廷债务违约 不走运第八次了 Argentina defaults 阿根廷债务违约 Eighth time unlucky 不走运,第八次了 Cristina Fernandez argues that her country's latest default is different. She is missing the point 克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯称,她国家最近的债务违约跟以前可不一样。她没说到点子上 ARGENTINA'S first bond, issued in 1824, was supposed to have a lifespan of 46 years. Less than four years later, the government defaulted. Resolving the ensuing stand-off with creditors took 29 years. Since then seven more defaults have followed, the most recent this week, when Argentina failed to make a payment on bonds issued as partial compensation to victims of the previous default, in 2001. 1824 年,阿根廷第一次发行债券,原本预期期限为 46 年。结果不到四年,阿根廷政府就出 现了债务违约。处理跟随之而来与债权人的紧张关系花了 29 年。从那以后,又发生了七次 债务违约。最近一次发生在本周,阿根廷无法偿付重组债券,导致了此次债务违约。这些债 券原本是作为对前一次 2001 年债务违约中受损投资人的部分补偿。 Most investors think they can see a pattern in all this, butArgentina's president, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, insists the latest default is not like the others. Her government, she points out, had

transferred the full 539m it owed to the banks that administer the bonds. It isAmerica's courts (the bonds were issued under American law) that blocked the payment, at the behest of the tiny minority of owners of bonds from 2001 who did not accept the restructuringArgentinaoffered them in 2005 and again in 2010. These “hold-outs”, balking at the 65% haircut the restructuring entailed, not only persuaded a judge that they should be paid in full but also got him to freeze payments on the restructured bonds untilArgentinacoughs up. 许多投资人认为, 他们能从中看出规律了。 但是, 阿根廷总统, 克里斯蒂娜· 费尔南德斯· 德 基什内尔坚称,最近一次债务违约跟以往的完全不同。她说,她的政府,已经向管理债券的 银行全额汇去了所欠的 5.39 亿美元,阻挠偿付的,是美国法院(这些债券是依照美国法律 发行的) 。 一小撮 2001 年债券的持有者, 不愿意接受阿根廷在 2005 年和 2010 年提出的债务 重组方案,是他们要求美国法院作出了这样的裁决。这些“钉子户” ,不愿意接受重组方案 65%的债务削减,他们不仅说服了法官裁决阿根廷要全额偿还欠他们的历史债务,而且还让 法官冻结了阿根廷对其它重组债务的偿付,直到阿根廷妥协为止。 Argentinaclaims that paying the hold-outs was impossible. It is not just that they are “vultures” as Argentine officials often put it, who bought the bonds for cents on the dollar after the previous default and are now holding those who accepted the restructuring (accounting for 93% of the debt) to ransom. The main problem is that a clause in the restructured bonds prohibitsArgentinafrom offering the hold-outs better terms without paying everyone else the same. Since it cannot afford to do that, it says it had no choice but to default. 阿根廷称,不可能付钱给那些“钉子户” 。这不光是因为这些人都是“秃鹫” ,阿根廷官员常 这么叫他们,这些人在上一次发生债务违约后,以极大的折扣购入了债券;还因为他们现在 把那些已经接受重组方案的债权人(占债务的 95%)绑为人质。问题的关键,就在于重组 债券中的一项条款,让阿根廷不能在其他债权人未得到同等待遇的前提下,给“钉子户”开 出更好的条件。由于无法承受对所有债权人全额偿付债务,阿根廷说自己别无选择,只能违 约。 Yet it is not certain that the clause requiring equal treatment of all bondholders would have applied, given that Argentinawould not have been paying the hold-outs voluntarily, but on the courts' orders. Moreover, some owners of the restructured bonds had agreed to waive their rights; had Argentinamade a concerted effort to persuade the remainder to do the same, it might have succeeded. Lawyers and bankers have suggested various ways around the clause in question, which expires at the end of the year. But Argentina's government was slow to consider these options or negotiate with the hold-outs, hiding instead behind indignant nationalism. 然而, 不能确定此要求对所有债权持有人同等待遇的条款适用, 因为阿根廷不是自愿偿付那 些“钉子户” ,而是在法庭命令下不得不这么做。而且,一些重组债券持有人已经同意放弃 追索权益;如果阿根廷努力劝服其它人也放弃追索权益,可能会成功。许多律师和银行家提 出了许多方式绕过争议条款,而且该条款到今年年底就失效了。但是,阿根廷政府没能认真 考虑这些选择,也没努力跟“钉子户”谈判,而是躲在满腔义愤的民族主义身后。 Don't try to flee, Argentina 阿根廷别想着逃避 Ms Fernandez is right that the consequences ofAmerica's court rulings have been perverse,

unleashing a big financial dispute in an attempt to solve a relatively small one. But hers is not the first government to be hit with an awkward verdict. Instead of railing against it, she should have tried to minimise the harm it did. Defaulting has helped no one: none of the bondholders will now be paid,Argentinalooks like a pariah again, and its economy will remain starved of loans and investment. 费尔南德斯女士称,美国法院判决造成的后果是不公正的,是为了解决小的金融问题,而触 发大的金融争端。她说的没错。但是,这已不是第一次有政府遭遇古怪判决了。与其跟判决 对着干,她本该试着将损害最小化。债务违约帮不了任何人:现在所有债权人都不能得到偿 付,阿根廷声誉再一次严重受损,其经济依旧得不到贷款和投资。 Happily, much of the damage can still be undone. It is not too late to strike a deal with the hold-outs or back an ostensibly private effort to buy out their claims. A quick fix would make it easier forArgentinato borrow again internationally. That, in turn, would speed development of big oil and gas deposits, the income from which could help ease its money troubles. 好消息是,多数损害还没有造成。现在跟“钉子户”达成协议,或是私下让他们表面上放弃 全额清偿追索, 还为时未晚。 一次权宜之计能让阿根廷再次在国际市场上借钱更容易。 而这, 能加快对丰富石油和天然气资源的开发,由之而来的收入,能缓解阿根廷的资金困境。 More important, it would help to change perceptions ofArgentinaas a financial rogue state. Over the past year or so Ms Fernandez seems to have been trying to rehabilitateArgentina's image and resuscitate its faltering economy. She settled financial disputes with government creditors and with Repsol, a Spanish oil firm whose Argentine assets she had expropriated in 2012. This week's events have overshadowed all that. For its own sake, and everyone else's,Argentinashould hold its nose and do a deal with the hold-outs. 更重要的是,这能改变阿根廷作为金融流氓国家的形象。过去一年左右,费尔南德斯女士似 乎在努力重塑阿根廷形象, 努力让摇摇摆摆的经济复苏。 她解决了跟政府债权人的金融争端, 以及跟西班牙石油公司 Repsol 的争端,费尔南德斯 2012 年曾没收该公司在阿根廷的资产。 本周的事件让所有这些都蒙上了阴影。为了自己,也为了别人,阿根廷应该捏住鼻子,忍住 厌恶,跟“钉子户”达成协议。 2015-06-15 土耳其大选 反对票会占多大比例 Turkey's election 土耳其大选 How big will the protest vote be? 反对票会占多大比例? Why the ruling AK party may not do as well on June 7th as in the past 土耳其执政党正义与发展党在 6 月 7 日大选的表现为何会不如以往 THE Justice and Development (AK) party has won three general elections in a row, most recently in 2011. Yet although it seems certain to win over 40% of the vote and remain the largest party

after the election on June 7th, it is losing ground. Many things that helped AK are being reversed. The economy, its strongest suit, has run out of steam. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, AK's charismatic former prime minister, who became Turkey's first directly elected president in August, has become increasingly despotic and out of touch. And some opposition parties now look more appealing. 土耳其正义与发展党已连续赢得三次大选,最近的一次是在 2011 年。尽管正发党对于 6 月 7 日的普选似乎胜券在握, 认为自己能够赢得超过 40%的选票并且其最大执政党的位置依然 屹立不倒,然而,正发党的执政地位正日益失势。益于正发党之事也渐渐与其对立起来。其 强项经济方面也已经疲软。 正发党前首相埃尔多安魅力超凡, 曾是首位于八月被直接推选而 出的土耳其总统,如今的他却越来越专制与脱节。当下,不少反对党看起来更具有吸引力。 The main centre-left Republican People's Party (CHP) has changed tack. Its leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has ditched his shrilly anti-Erdogan rhetoric of old and is hitting AK hard on the economy. His pledges to double the minimum wage and to improve the lot of some 11m pensioners may sound populist, yet they have resonance. Two-thirds of CHP candidates were elected in primaries. And Mr Kilicdaroglu has managed to bring in female candidates such as Selina Dogan, an ethnic Armenian lawyer, and Selin Sayek Boke, a respected Arab Christian economist. Ultra-secular dinosaurs have gone. 最大的左翼共和人民党改变了策略。 其领导人齐力· 克达洛格鲁也摒弃了他过去关于反埃尔 多安的尖锐说辞,在经济方面对正发党发起重击。他承诺会将最低工资翻上一番,并提高约 一千一百万养老金领取人群的数量,听起来民粹主义,然而反响不错。左翼共和人民党中三 分之二的候选人都是经过初选选拔而来。 克达洛格鲁想法设法引入了一些女性候选人, 例如 少数民族亚美尼亚律师赛琳娜·多根,受人景仰的阿拉伯经济学家与基督教徒赛琳·萨耶 克·博克。超世俗的守旧时代已远去。 Alas, the newly colourful CHP is still not expected to add much to the 26% it got in 2011. But that is partly because some supporters are defecting to another opposition party, the pro-Kurdish People's Democracy Party (HDP). The HDP is a challenge to Mr Erdogan because his dream of an executive presidency depends on its share of the vote. Previously the Kurds fielded independent candidates to get around the minimum 10% threshold for seats in the parliament. But the HDP is now running nationally. Should it get over 10% of the vote, it will pick up 50-60 seats, leaving AK well short of the minimum 330 deputies required to propose constitutional changes, including an executive presidency. 可惜的是,新晋共和人民党仍没有太大希望超过 2011 年,得到多于 26%选票。一部分原因 是某些追随者叛变投向诸如亲库尔德人民民主党的其他反对党。 亲库尔德人民民主党对于埃 尔多安而言是项挑战,因为他的执行主席之梦需要依靠选票来实现。此前,库尔德人派出的 独立候选人在议会中所占席位最低大约 10%。然而,如今共和人民党的势力正在土耳其全 国范围内推行蔓延。如果共和人民党能够赢得超过 10%的选票,它将在议会获得 50-60 的席 位,那么正发党则无法凑齐包括执行主席在内的至少 330 位议会代表的提议来完成宪法修 改。 Some pollsters think AK might even fall short of the 276 seats it needs for a simple majority. It would then have to form a coalition with the third main opposition party, the far-right Nationalist Action Party (MHP), since both the CHP and the HDP say they will not go into government with AK. If, however, the HDP does not clear the 10% hurdle, AK will inherit all its seats, clearing the

way not just for a renewed single-party government but perhaps for Mr Erdogan's executive presidency. 一些民意调查机构认为正发党达不到一般获胜票选所需的 276 个席位。 接下来它必须要与第 三方的反对党----极右翼的民族行动党进行强强联手的合作,因为共和人民党与亲库尔德人 民民主党扬言不会与正发党一同加入政府。不过,如果亲库尔德人民民主党没有清除掉那 10%的障碍, 正发党将获得其在议会的所有席位, 这不仅为能复兴一党执政的政府扫清道路, 可能也能为埃尔多安的执行主席之位扫除障碍。 The HDP owes its rising fortunes in part to its co-chair, Selahattin Demirtas. With his youthful looks and biting wit, the former human-rights lawyer from Diyarbakir makes Mr Erdogan seem a has-been. All over Turkey, bejewelled dowagers, hipsters and factory workers say they may vote HDP either because they “like Demirtas” or because “it's the only way to stop Erdogan.” This is a sea change. The HDP was long seen as the political arm of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), the rebels fighting for Kurdish self-rule since 1984. Few doubt that the PKK and its imprisoned leader, Abdullah Ocalan, still hold much sway. But a ceasefire that has held since March 2013 has legitimised the HDP. Winning more seats in parliament would propel the Kurds further into the mainstream and loosen the rebels' grip. Being shut out would have the opposite effect. 亲库尔德人民民主党的好运一部分归功于其联合主席塞拉· 德米塔斯, 这位来自德亚巴克尔 的前任人权律师,一表人才、犀利机智,反倒是埃尔多安显得过气起来。纵观整个土耳其, 无论是珠光宝气的贵妇、 时尚流行的潮人, 还是辛勤劳作的工人都表示自己或许会将选票投 给亲库尔德人民民主党,理由要么是“敬仰德米塔斯” ,要么是“这是唯一能够阻止埃尔多 安的方法” 。这是一场席卷的变革。亲库尔德人民民主党长期以来一直被视作库尔德工人党 在政治上的左膀右臂,自 1984 年起便致力于库尔德人自制的斗争中。无人质疑库尔德工人 党,其已被监禁的领导人阿布拉杜·奥贾兰仍然拥有举足轻重的地位。2013 年 3 月的停战 协定使得亲库尔德人民民主党合法化。 在议会中赢得更多的席位将推进库尔德人成为政治主 流,解放反叛。如被拒之门外,效果会大大相反。 Although it was Mr Erdogan who initiated peace with the Kurds, he has hit the campaign trail, Koran in hand, ranting about Mr Demirtas's supposed “terrorist connections” and lack of faith. The HDP has to lure pro-AK Kurds into switching sides if it is to squeak past the threshold. “Kurds in the big western cities like Istanbul and Izmir hold the key,” concludes Behlul Ozkan, a political scientist. The HDP's victory is “by no means guaranteed” 尽管埃尔多安倡导与库尔德人和平共处,他却手持《可兰经》 ,在竞选游说中大放其词称德 米塔斯可能“与恐怖分子有来往” ,无信仰不忠诚。若亲库尔德人民民主党想要侥幸逃过所 谓的门槛,他们必须要引诱正发党的库尔德人转变政治倾向。 “库尔德人在诸如伊斯坦布尔 与伊兹密尔的西方大城市很关键, ”政治科学家 Behlul Ozkan 如是说。亲库尔德人民民主党 是否能够取胜谁也无法保证。 2015-06-17 深陷危机 泰国局势急转直下 Thailand 泰国


Everything is broken 支离破碎 Long in crisis, Thailand is close to the brink. Without compromises on both sides, it may well collapse 深陷危机,泰国局势急转直下。对峙双方若互不让步,该国局势可能即将崩溃。 LOOK on and despair. A decade ago Thailand was a shining example—rare proof that in South-East Asia a vibrant democracy could go hand-in-hand with a thriving economy. Contrast that with Thailand on May 7th, left in disarray after the Constitutional Court demanded that the prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra (pictured), step down with nine members of her cabinet over her decision to remove the country's head of national security in 2011, in favour of a relative. 泰国前景堪忧。 十年以前, 泰国还是东南亚国家中鲜少能够证明生机勃勃的政体可以和蓬勃 发展的经济并驾齐驱的耀眼榜样。与昨日的辉煌相比,5 月 7 日的泰国则是一片混乱。泰国 总理英拉·西那瓦(如图)2011 年让自己一位亲属取代现任国家安全部部长的决定使得宪 法法院要求她与 9 名内阁成员辞去相应职务。 For all the pretence of due legal process and distaste at Ms Yingluck's nepotism, this was not an offence that merited the ousting of a prime minister. Instead, the ruling is a measure of quite how far Thailand has fallen, how deeply it is divided and how badly its institutions are broken. Unless Thais step back from the brink, their country risks falling into chaos and anarchy, or outright violence. 所有对于相应法定程序的托词以及英拉裙带关系的愤恨都不足以成为剥夺一国总理的理由。 与之相反的是, 国家的管理是衡量泰国落后他国有多远, 分裂问题多么恶劣以及政体破坏多 么严重的标准。 除非泰国能够走出危机, 否则该国面临着混乱的无政府状态或者激烈的暴力 冲突的危险。 In kicking out Ms Yingluck, the court accomplished what months of anti-government street protests in Bangkok, led by a firebrand populist, Suthep Thaugsuban, had failed to bring about. It is far from the first time the court has ruled against her. To break the impasse on Bangkok's streets, she had called a February election, but the opposition Democrat Party boycotted it, and the court struck down the results. Ms Yingluck had been limping on as a caretaker. The message for many Thais is that the court is on the side of a royalist establishment bent on purging politics of Ms Yingluck, who came to office three years ago in a landslide election, and—especially—her brother, Thaksin Shinawatra, himself ousted in a coup in 2006 and now in self-imposed exile. 叛乱煽动者素贴?特素班在曼谷领导的反政府街头抗议数月以逼走英拉的任务由宪法法院完 成了。这个情形远不及法院首次对英拉做出裁决的情况。为了打破曼谷街头抗议的僵局,她 曾召集了一次二月选举,但是反对党民主党对此抵制抗议,而且法院扼杀了选举结果。英拉 像一个临时代理人一般的艰难前行。 在许多泰国人看来, 法院支持建立一个君主主义制度以 取代英拉政府统治。英拉三年前在一次压倒性的选举胜利中走上政坛。值得一提的是,英拉 的哥哥塔克辛?西那瓦在 2006 年一次政变中下台,现在也无奈流落异乡。 The entire apparatus of government has been sucked into the conflict between two visions of Thailand. For Mr Thaksin's supporters, his emergence in 2001 marked a welcome break from

decades of rule by corrupt coalitions or military juntas. Helped by a new democratic constitution in 1997, he gave a voice to Thailand's majority, many of them in his northern and north-eastern heartland. In their view, he transformed the lives of the poorest with health and education programmes, and he challenged Thailand's privileged elites in the bureaucracy, the army, the judiciary and the palace corridors of an ailing King Bhumibol Adulyadej. To the Thaksinites, both the recent street protests and the Constitutional Court's activism are the work of an establishment that cannot accept the results of the ballot box: in 2001, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2011 parties loyal to Mr Thaksin won elections fair and square, and Ms Yingluck's Pheu Thai party would have done so, too, in February. 泰国整个国家机制已经深陷于该国两种观点的冲突之中。对于素贴的支持者来说,2001 年 他的出现标志着几十年来腐败的党派勾结或者军队派别统治已被终结并迎来新的开始。 1997 年在一项新的民主体制的帮助下, 他为泰国大多数人的利益振臂呐喊, 这些人的大多数来自 于他的北方地区和东北腹地。 在他们看来, 素贴通过医疗和教育计划改变了最贫困地区人们 的生活,而且他勇于挑战泰国官僚体制下的特权阶级,军队,司法机关,以及体弱的泰国国 王普密蓬?阿杜德代表的皇权阶层。在塔克辛拥护者眼里,最近的街头抗议以及宪法法院的 动作都是由于反对党无法接受选举投票失败的结果:为塔克辛效劳的政党曾在 2001 , 2005,2007 以及 2011 年的大选中光明正大的获得选举, 而英拉所在的泰党在 2 月份本也可以 做到这样。 There is merit in this interpretation. But so is there in what the Shinawatras' enemies have to say. In particular, they charge that Thaksinite governments have been run for the benefit of his rural supporters (a mad scheme to subsidise rice threatens to bust the budget) and of the billionaire himself. There is something creepy about the way that the exiled, unelected Mr Thaksin has been calling the shots from Dubai. 这种解释有其可取之处。 但是这也是西那瓦家族的反对者所要说的。 尤其是这些人指责塔克 辛政府一直为他的农村支持者以及他这个亿万富翁谋求福利 (一项补贴粮食危机来破坏预算 的愚蠢计划) 。对于被流放的,未经选举的塔克辛先生在迪拜暗中谋划的传闻听来也是十分 可怖。 Now stalemate beckons. An election is supposed to happen. Ms Yingluck should have had the right to confront her undemocratic royalist foes at the ballot box. But an election is no solution because the opposition will boycott it. Mr Suthep has proposed a “people's council” of the great and the good, but Thaksinites will rightly see it as a stitch-up designed to keep them out. The irreconcilable differences between the two sides have swallowed up Thailand's courts, its army and even the monarchy—and left Thailand at the abyss. Investors, having borne years of simmering discontent, are taking fright. Blood has already been spilled this year. The prospects of wider violence are growing as Thaksinite supporters threaten conflict on the streets. 现在僵局仍然持续。 该国应该进行新的选举。 英拉应该通过选举来获得直面其非民主保皇主 义反对者的权力。但是大选不是解决问题的方法,因为反对者仍将抵制选举。素贴应经提议 为显要人物建立一个“人民议会” ,但是塔克辛支持者会认为这是一个旨在将他们排除在外 的圈套。敌对双方无法调和的差异已经湮没了泰国的法院,军队甚至整个君主政体,并让其 陷入万劫不复之地。 忍受满腹不满情绪多年的投资者也整天惶惶不可终日。 满腔热血已在今 年挥洒殆尽。随着塔克辛支持者扬言街头冲突,更大范围内的暴力活动将会愈演愈烈。


Stop and think 停战深思 If Thailand is to avoid that catastrophe, both sides must now step back from the brink. The starting point is the devolution of Thailand's highly centralised system of governance. At the moment only the capital has a democratically elected governor, yet all 76 provinces should also have one—this would not only help a rumbling Muslim insurgency in the south, it would also offer a prize to Mr Suthep, because the winner of the national election would no longer win all the power. In return for this reform, the Democrat Party must pledge to accept election results; and in return for that, the Pheu Thai should run without a Shinawatra at the helm. 如果泰国想要避免灾祸, 对峙双方必须在局势崩溃之前各退一步。 首先要做的就是要将泰国 高度集中的管理权力下放。目前只有该国首都拥有一个民主选举的管理者,而其他的 76 个 省 份也应该有这样的管理者——这不仅可以协助解决日渐激烈的南方穆斯林暴乱,还将会 为素贴带来额外之喜,因为小全国大选的获胜者将不再是大权独握。作为这场改革的回报, 民主党必须保证接受选举结果; 而为了回报这个结果, 泰党应该在没有西那瓦家族成员掌权 的情况下运行。 Goodwill is in short supply in Thailand today. Yet by fighting on, the two sides risk bringing ruination to their country. Compromise would, by comparison, be a small price to pay. 在今日的泰国,友好善意是如此稀缺。而双方持续对峙面临着给国家带来巨大祸端的风险。 通过对比,双方的妥协让步将会是比较小的代价。 2015-06-17 商业组织联合体 机制正被打破 Cartel-busting 商业组织联合体机制正被打破 Boring can still be bad 无趣之势依旧呈现糟糕状态 Market-rigging in unsexy industries costs consumers a lot. More can be done to detect and deter it. 无聊行业在操纵市场方面使得消费者耗资巨大。 对此, 政府可以施行更多的措施检测和阻止 这一现象的发生。 MENTION price cartels and many people will think of big, overt ones like the one OPEC runs for oil and the now-extinct one for diamonds. But at least as damaging are the many secret cartels in such unglamorous areas as ball-bearings and cargo rates, which go on unnoticed for years, quietly bumping up the end cost to consumers of all manner of goods and services. 提到价格垄断, 很多人会想到一些大型和公开明显的垄断企业, 如欧佩克石油输出国家组织 以及现今已经退出市场的钻石垄断公司。然而,至少在单调乏味的领域,有很多秘密运营的 垄断企业,诸如轴承和货运费率领域里也同样具有损害性,这些企业数年未被关注,最近在 各大产品和服务方面,迅速增长其对客户的所需产品和服务的首尾成本。


Collusion among producers to rig prices and carve up markets is thriving, with the cartels growing ever more intricate and global in scope. Competition authorities have uncovered several whopping conspiracies in recent years, including one in which more than 20 airlines worldwide had fixed prices on perhaps 20 billion of freight shipments. They were fined a total of 3 billion; and so far the compensation claims from ripped-off customers comfortably exceed 1 billion. One academic study found that the typical cartel raised the price of the goods or services in question by 20%. Another suggested that cartels were robbing poor countries'consumers of tens of billions of dollars a year: if so, negating all the aid that rich countries'governments send them. 随着卡特尔垄断更为复杂地增长并且呈全球范围扩展的趋势, 生产者共同谋求操纵以及划分 市场的现象正逐渐兴盛起来。 竞争当局发现近年来存在一些巨大的阴谋, 包括超过二十多条 的国际航线之一的一家公司,私定 200 亿元的货物装运价格。他们因此被处以 30 亿元的罚 款;并且到目前为止那些确定为敲消费者竹杠的公司被处以的赔偿金超出了 10 亿元。一个 学术研究表明典型的卡特尔垄断使得有疑问的商品和服务增长了 20%。另一个研究表明卡 特尔垄断是从贫困国家的消费者中剥夺了他们平均一年上百亿美元的钱财: 如果正如这样所 说,否定所有富有国家政府对他们施行的援助是有道理的。 Investigators are still unravelling a huge global network of cartels among suppliers of a wide range of car parts. Makers of seat belts, radiators and foam seat-stuffing have had hefty fines slapped on them. Earlier this month the European Commission fined five makers of automotive bearings a total of 953m (1.32 billion). This week its investigators raided a bunch of makers of car exhausts. Also in recent days, Brazilian prosecutors have charged executives from a dozen foreign train-makers accused of rigging bids for rail and subway contracts in the country's main cities. Price-fixing has infected high finance, too. Some of banking's biggest names stand accused of fiddling interest-rate and foreign-exchange benchmarks. 研究调查者仍然在试图解决一项关于大量汽车零部件供应商的巨大国际垄断网络问题。 汽车 座位安全带、散热器和泡沫座位填充物的生产者,已经被处以了巨额的罚款。这个月早些时 候,欧洲委员会对汽车轴承的制造商处以了总计 13.2 亿元的罚款。这个星期,调查者们突 袭了一群汽车尾气的制造商。 并且在最近几天, 巴西的告发者起诉了十几个国外火车制造商 的高管, 缘由是他们在国家主要的城市垄断铁轨和地铁合同的竞标。 操纵价格也已经同样影 响到了巨额的投资。银行的大腕们也面临着人们对其摆弄利率和银行基准的指责。 The good news is that enforcement has got tougher, smarter and more co-ordinated. Gone are the days when price-fixers got a slap on the wrist. Firms can expect swingeing fines, and bosses can go to jail. Since many cartels now operate across borders, so do investigators: American and Japanese trustbusters joined forces to flush out the car-parts cartels. And incentives for whistleblowers have also increased: around 50 countries now offer immunity or reduced penalties for snitches. 好消息是,执法方面变得更为严格,更加智能,也更为协调。价格固定器被撞到腰的日子一 去不复返了。企业可以预期被处以巨额的罚款,老板可能会进监狱。由于许多卡特尔垄断组 织从事跨国经营, 调查者们也同样是跨国合作的: 美国和日本的反托拉斯者联手改变汽车零 部件垄断现象。并使举报人的奖励也得以增加:约 50 个国家现在规定提供豁免权或对打小 报告减少处罚。 That is all for the better, but the penalties for price-fixing remain too mild. The best study of the

issue so far concluded that, given the still-low risk of detection, collusion pays. Yet beyond a certain point—which the fines now imposed by American and European regulators have probably reached—fines inflict so much damage on guilty companies that they undermine competition instead of enhancing it. The answer is stiffer prison sentences, particularly for senior executives. American courts, only too ready to lock up other types of miscreants for a long time, have rarely jailed egregious price-fixers for anything like the maximum of ten years that the law allows. Other countries have even more scope to increase sentences. 这是为了能够使得情况有所好转, 但是对于操纵价格的处罚仍然过于温和。 这个问题的最好 的研究,就是到目前为止的结论是,鉴于检测仍低风险,共谋会付出代价。然而,除这点之 外, 现在由美国和欧洲监管机构处以的罚款可能已经达到——罚款对于有罪责的公司所造成 的破坏,相比提升其竞争力而言,反而削弱了该公司的竞争力。答案就是严厉的监狱服刑, 特别是对于高级管理人员的处罚。 美国法院很愿意关押其他类型的歹徒达更长的时间, 他们 很少对过分的价格制定者实行监禁, 比如法律所允许的最长可达十年的监禁期。 其他国家拥 有更多的增加刑罚的范围权限。 Buy some geeks 购买一些技术型极客 More can be done to aid detection, too. Statistical tests to “screen” markets for unusual pricing patterns helped uncover the interest-rate and foreign-exchange scandals. Potential conspirators may think twice if they suspect their market is being screened. European and Latin American trustbusters are making good use of the technique; their American counterparts should do so, too. Deploying such cutting-edge technology is costly; and increased funding is a big ask at a time of public-sector parsimony. But cartel authorities in Europe and America generally bring in far more than they cost to run, so extra money pushed in their direction is likely to be well spent. 同样也有更多可以帮助检测的办法。 统计测试表明屏蔽市场不寻常的定价模式有助于揭开利 率和外汇丑闻。如果潜在的阴谋者他们怀疑自己的市场被屏蔽,可能会三思而后行。欧洲和 拉丁美洲的反托拉斯人员正利用该技术; 他们的美国同行们应该也这样做。 部署这种先进的 技术是昂贵的;而增加的资金对公共部门而言,每次都是一个很大的要求。但在欧洲和美国 卡特尔当局通常会远远超过他们的成本运行, 因此多余的钱促使他们朝着自己的方向, 用得 其所。 Another way to discourage the formation of cartels is to factor the increased risk of collusion into scrutiny of proposed mergers. Price-fixing is likelier, and easier to sustain, with fewer players. This could never be the primary determinant in competition decisions, but it should be in the mix. Blocking a few more mergers—whose benefits anyway tend to be over-egged—might both save companies from themselves and spare their customers the costs of collusion. 另一种方法来阻止卡特尔的形成, 是官商勾结因素的危险性增加, 被作为合并建议的审查考 虑在内。操纵价格是更有可能的,并且更容易维持,只需要较少的参与者。这不可能是竞争 决策的主要决定因素, 但它应加以进行混合调整。 阻止少数几个兼并者——这种行动所带来 的收益往往是在过度怂恿之下促成的—这样既为企业节省了他们自己的开支, 也使得企业对 客户活动追踪的成本得以减少。 2015-06-19

乌克兰大选 好马无好鞍 Ukraine's election 乌克兰大选 Good voters, not such good guys 好马无好鞍 The poll results were promising, but the future for Ukraine is dauntingly difficult 大选的结局充满希望,但是乌克兰的未来依然扑朔迷离 TO ALL appearances, Ukraine's parliamentary election on October 26th was a triumph. Reformists mostly won and voters rebuked the far right and far left. Western allies heaped praise on the pro-European, pro-democratic results. Yet Ukraine remains troubled and deeply divided. 从各方面来说,10 月 26 号乌克兰议会选举的结果都是振奋人心的。改革派取得了绝对的胜 利,选民们也击退了极右和极左主义。乌克兰的西方盟友对于这种亲欧盟,和民主化的选举 结果给予了极高的赞扬。然而乌克兰依然面临不少困难并且深陷分裂的危机中。 In an upset, the People's Front party of Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the prime minister, narrowly beat President Petro Poroshenko's bloc by 22.2% to 21.8%. This means that Ukraine will keep two power centres, as Mr Yatsenyuk seems sure to stay in office. Mr Poroshenko had hoped to win a majority and install a loyalist instead. Now the People's Front and the Poroshenko Bloc must form a coalition, probably with the third-placed Samopomich (self-help) party, led by the mayor of Lviv. The six parties that reached a 5% threshold will fill half of the 450-seat parliament (Rada) from their party lists. The rest will come from districts where deputies are elected directly and only later join party factions. 在一种惴惴不安的气氛中,代理总理亚采纽克领导的人民前线党最终以 22.2%对 21.8%的微 弱优势击败了总统彼得·波罗申科领导的政治联盟。这意味着乌克兰将存在两个权力中心, 因此亚采纽克看上去铁定会继续在位。 相反的波罗申科曾经最希望看到的结果是能赢得大多 数选票并且能扶持一个忠诚的支持者。 现在, 人民前线和波罗申科的党派必须同第三方新兴 政党——由 Lviv 市市长领导的 Samopomich(自主联盟)建立一个政治联盟。六个赢得了 进入议会门槛——5%选票的政党将用自己的成员填满其中过半的席位。剩下的席位将从各 地区的直接选举并且接下来也将加入各自的小团体。 The vote reflected the western regions' power in the new Ukraine. Turnout was highest in the west, and relatively low overall at 52% (down from 60% in May's presidential election). In Lviv 70% of voters showed up, against only 40% in Odessa. In Ukrainian-controlled areas of the Donbas turnout was just 32%. Neither Crimea nor the separatist-held eastern regions voted (their 27 seats in the Rada will stay empty). 这次大选反应了西部地区在新乌克兰的影响力。 相对于 5 月份总统大选时西部选民占据 60% 的情况来说,此次比例有所下降(这次仅有 52%) 。在 Lviv 有 70%的选民出席,对应的在 敖德萨仅仅只有 40%的选民参与了投票。在乌克兰控制的顿涅茨克地区出席率也仅仅只有 32%,更不用说在克里米亚和分裂主义者控制的东部地区了。 (他们在议会中的 27 个席位将 暂时闲置。 )


The Opposition Bloc, a revamped version of Viktor Yanukovych's reviled Party of Regions, got into the Rada, after finishing fourth, with 9%. The party won much of the south-east—Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhia and even Dnipropetrovsk. Joining them in parliament will be some 60-70 directly elected deputies aligned with the old regime. Their presence will incense first-time politicians drawn from the Maidan movement who fought hard to oust Mr Yanukovych. It will also upset Ukraine's volunteer battalions, including commanders of three powerful anti-rebel paramilitary groups who were elected. 反对党——改头换面的亚努科维奇讽刺地区党最终以第四名的身份——获得了 9%的选票陈 宫进入议会。他们赢得大多数顿涅茨克东南部;路甘斯克;哈尔科夫;扎波罗热甚至是第聂 伯罗彼得罗夫斯克地区的选票。 他们的入选将给议会带来 60 到 70 名与旧政体站在同一战线 的直系代理人。这些人的出席将激怒那些费尽心思废黜了亚努科维奇( “买单”运动)之后 诞生的第一批政治家。随着包括三名反政府准军事武装组织的领导人在内的一批人的介入, 乌克兰志愿军陷入了深深的不安之中。 Co-operation with the Opposition Bloc, which includes Mr Yanukovych's former chief of staff, Sergei Levochkin, will be unpalatable. But Hannes Schreiber, of the EU delegation in Kiev, argues it will be “decisive to have the former ruling side in the dialogue”. Failure to do so would increase feelings of exclusion in Russian-leaning regions, where Kremlin agents continue to sow dissent. (Ukrainian security services say they detained pro-Russian “diversion groups” in Kharkiv, Odessa, Zaporizhia, Mariupol and Kiev before the vote.) 很多人都认为和亚努科维的前首席参谋长 Sergei Levochkin 所在的反对党合作是非常失败 的。但是欧盟在基辅的代言人 Hannes Schreiber 坚称让前执政党的势力参与对话是非常必要 的。 如果不这样做, 将会助长那些克林姆林宫持续散播分裂主义种子的亲俄地区的抵触情绪。 (乌克兰安全委员会声称他们在大选之前阻拦了大批位于哈尔科夫,敖德萨,扎波罗热,马 里乌波尔和基辅的“转移组织” 。 ) Even more destructive would be infighting within the coalition. Whereas the parties' broad pro-European aims are aligned, their business interests and personal ambitions are not. Horse-trading for jobs and squabbling over reforms has already begun. Mr Poroshenko and Mr Yatsenyuk have both put forward their own proposals. Mr Yatsenyuk, who takes a hawkish attitude to Russia, has declared himself the election's winner and put “restoration of sovereignty and territorial integrity” at the top of his cabinet's priorities. 事实上联盟内斗带来的危害更大。 在那里虽然广大亲欧盟党派的目标是一致的, 但是他们的 商业和个人利益却不尽相同。 关于就业和改革讨价还价般的争执已然开始。 不管是波罗申科 还是亚采纽克都在推行他们各自的主张。 亚采纽克一直对俄罗斯采取极度强硬的态度, 他声 称自己是大选的胜利者并且将实现“国家主权和领土完整”列为自己执政的第一要务。 Mr Poroshenko, who has more allies among directly elected deputies, will not easily relinquish the reins. He seems determined to direct reforms from the presidential administration, where his aides have spent months preparing draft laws, with a focus on deregulation, judicial reform and decentralisation. After the 2004 Orange revolution, conflicts between the president and the prime minister plagued the government, which squandered the chance of broad change to the system. Mr Poroshenko and Mr Yatsenyuk must learn from those mistakes. “Delay with reforms is fatal for

us,” Mr Poroshenko himself said. 在那些直接选举产生的代表中拥有更多盟友的总统波罗申科绝对不会轻易放弃这股力量。 他 似乎决心通过总统的权力进行直接改革, 他的助手们花了几个月的时间来制定法律, 这些新 法案专注于解除管制,司法改革以及权力下放。事实上,自从 2004 年的橙色革命之后,总 理和总统间的权力冲突一直困扰着乌克兰政府,而这种行为极大地浪费了体制改革的机会。 不论是波罗申科还是亚采纽克都必须从之前的错误中吸取教训。 波罗申科表示 “对我们来说, 拖延改革是极其致命的。 ” At stake is the survival not just of the new government, but of Ukraine itself. The economy, teetering on the verge of collapse, depends on foreign aid that is linked to reforms. This week the EU promised more help. But reforms are likely only to increase the pain for people ravaged by war and facing a gas-starved winter. 不论是对于幸存的新政府还是乌克兰本身来说, 现在的情况都是危如累卵。 国家经济接近崩 溃,全靠国际援助支撑,这种支撑还得依靠改革的成效来维系。本周,欧盟当局承诺给予更 多援助。但是就目前来看,一系列改革措施只能增加人们因战争带来的痛楚,同时还得面对 一个没有天然气的寒冬。 Ukraine has to contend with its rebels and with Vladimir Putin (see article). The separatist republics in Donetsk and Luhansk will hold elections on November 2nd, a vote that Kiev condemns but Moscow will recognise. Ukrainian soldiers, two-thirds of whom did not vote because they could not leave their positions, still die on the front. On their way to the polls during a freezing election day in Kiev, voters expressed only tepid hopes. “The people won't tolerate the politicians' games any longer,” said Svetlana Ischenko, 68, in the foyer of Lesya Ukrainka Gymnasium. “If we don't change now, either Ukraine will fall to pieces or Putin will take us over.” Unfortunately, she may be right. 乌克兰不但要和反政府武装斗争还要随时提防普京。 位于顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克的分离派共和 政体将在 11 月 2 号举行选举,即便基辅极力谴责,但是莫斯科显然会承认这一行为。接近 三分之二的乌克兰士兵并未参加选举, 因为他们不能离开自己的岗位, 他们依然在前线牺牲。 在一个寒风凛冽的日子去基辅参加投票,选民们表达出一种微弱的希望。68 岁的 Svetlana Ischenko 在 Lesya Ukrainka 体育馆表示: “人们已经受够政治家们的游戏!如果我们现在还 不改变,要么乌克兰彻底完蛋,要么普京将来接管我们。 ”即便很残酷,但她可能说出了实 情。 2015-06-21 巴勒斯坦和西方外援 这援助会取消不? Palestine and Western aid 巴勒斯坦和西方外援 Will it be cut off? 这援助会取消不? The Israelis ponder their next move in the wake of Palestinian reconciliation 随着巴勒斯坦人内部的和解,以色列正权衡他们自己的下一步行动


FEW Arab towns collect rubbish as smoothly as Bethlehem. No sooner have the merchants lowered their shutters at the end of the day than the dustmen under the command of Iyad abu Rudeineh are primed to enter its tangle of restored old alleys. Much of this success, he admits, is due to an American road-building project that has eased access. Yet in the wake of a recent reconciliation agreement between Palestine's two main rival parties, the secular Fatah and the Islamist Hamas, he fears that American support may cease. For the United States and many Arab and European countries deem Hamas a terror group. They are prepared to support the Palestinian Authority (PA) run by Mahmoud Abbas of Fatah (pictured), but not if Hamas is involved. By the time the pope visits Bethlehem on May 25th, he may find the streets strewn with rubbish. 很少有阿拉伯城镇会像伯利恒(耶稣降生地)那样平净地回收垃圾。繁忙的一天快结束了, 商人们刚想拉下百叶窗打烊,受命于 Iyad abu Rudeineh 的清洁工人们就会涌进一条条充满 活力却混乱的小巷。 他认为这种成功归功于美国的道路修建计划, 这计划大大消除了道路压 力。 然而随着近日巴勒斯坦的两个最大竞争党世俗主义的法塔赫与伊斯兰教的哈马斯和解声 明公布,他担忧美国将会停止对以支援。究其原因则是美国和许多阿拉伯、欧洲国家将哈马 斯视为恐怖组织。 他们做好了支持由 Mahmoud Abbas of Fatah 所领导的巴勒斯坦民族权力机 构(又称巴勒斯坦自治政府)的准备,但前提是哈马斯没有牵扯其中。在教皇于五月二十五 日访问伯利恒之时,可能他会发现那里遍地垃圾。 The risks are real. Barely two years have passed since America ended its most recent boycott of Bethlehem. That lasted seven years, after its townspeople had elected representatives from two factions designated by America as terror groups to its council. Mr Abu Rudeineh worries that the billboards recently erected hailing the accomplishments of America's aid arm, USAID, could soon look out of date. Palestinian officials say USAID officials cancelled meetings, albeit apologetically, the day after Hamas and Fatah announced their agreement. Congress, the American officials explained, would not let them “finance terror”. Whereas the agreement offers Gazans the prospect that their seaside enclave, run by Hamas, may no longer be boxed in by Israel and Egypt, Mr Abbas's fief in the West Bank, inland, could end up paying the price. 这并非耸人听闻。 距美国结束最近一次抵制伯利恒的活动这才仅仅过去两年。 那场抵制运动 持续了七年,就在那里的人民从两个被美国认定为恐怖组织的派别中选举出了议会代表之 后。Abu Rudeineh 先生担心最近树立起的一批称赞美国援助的成就的公告牌,比如美国国 际开发署,会很快就过期。 But America has not yet cut ties as a result of the deal. The day that USAID officials cancelled the meeting, the World Bank awarded 13m for wastewater projects and America's secretary of state, John Kerry, hosted a banquet for businessmen to drum up cash for a scheme for investment in Palestine. On the same day, says a senior Palestinian, Barack Obama talked to Mr Abbas for half an hour on the telephone. While new projects may be put on hold, American officials say old ones may continue. A music festival backed by USAID in Jericho, in the Jordan valley, for instance, went ahead. 不过美国人尚未打算切断这种关系作为交易结果。 美国国际开发署官员取消会议的当天, 世 界银行将总额为一千三百万美元的奖金发给了一个废水处理项目和美国国务卿约翰克里, 并 让他筹办一次宴会为在巴勒斯坦的投资计划向商人筹集现金。 同日, 一名巴勒斯坦资深人士 声称奥巴马与阿巴斯在电话中谈了半小时之久。 在诸多新项目可能会推迟的情况下, 美国官


员称以前的项目可能会继续进行。例如,一个在约旦谷的 Jericho 举行的、由美国国际开发 署赞助的音乐节将会继续。 Israel's government says it wants the West to show “moral clarity” by cutting support for any Palestinian government backed by Hamas, a group that has been responsible for killing more than 1,000 Israelis, many of them civilian. 以色列政府想要西方通过切断所有针对哈马斯支持的巴勒斯坦政府的援助来展现他们道义 分明。这个哈马斯组织应对屠杀一千多名以色列平民负责,其中多数都是手无寸铁的平民。 America's Congress may concur with the Israelis, and cut funds to the Palestinians in response to the Fatah-Hamas deal. But other American officials see a possible benefit if Hamas comes to accept the notion of a two-state settlement with Israel. These Americans argue that Hamas's dire straits in Gaza may enable Mr Abbas to secure an advantageous deal for himself, paving the way for his return to power there. And they fear that past boycotts of Hamas may have deprived Western countries of influence in Gaza and helped the Islamists to tighten their grip there. In any case, says one, it would be good if Europeans and Arabs were to make up the shortfall in aid to the Palestinians, should Congress prompt the American administration to pull out. 美国国会有可能会与以色列达成一致,以切断对巴勒斯坦的资金援助作为对法塔赫-哈马斯 协定的回应。话虽如此,另外有一些美国官员认为,假如哈马斯接受了与以色列的双边和解 理念,其中潜在的利益将不可小觑。这两派持不同意见的美国人争论的焦点在于,哈马斯在 加沙地带的残暴行径可能会促使阿巴斯先生为他自己争取到一个非常有优势的筹码, 而此筹 码将直接为他的重新掌权而铺平道路。 此外, 他们还担忧过去针对哈马斯的抵制行动可能会 令西方国家丧失在加沙的影响力,进而使以色列加紧了在当地的支配力。无论如何,假如欧 洲人与阿拉伯人能够把对巴勒斯坦的援助补上的话将是极好的, 因为这样美国国会就会促使 其政府将行政机构撤出当地。 So far the Israeli government's response has been more bark than bite. In response to the Fatah-Hamas deal, Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, declared that he was suspending negotiations with Mr Abbas and stopping the transfer of customs revenues which comprise two-thirds of Mr Abbas's PA budget. But he did so only after first allowing the monthly transfer to proceed, nervous lest the PA might collapse without it, thereby stoking general mayhem in the West Bank. Israel, it has been noted, has itself bargained with Hamas in the past, arranging repeated ceasefires with it since 2004. 目前来看,以色列政府的反应看起来强硬其实为了掩盖其柔软的内心。在对法塔赫-哈马斯 协定的回应中,以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡宣称他正推迟与阿巴斯的谈判,同时停止占 阿巴斯的巴勒斯坦民族权力机构支出三分之二的关税收入的转移。 然而由于他唯恐巴勒斯坦 民族权力机构没了它就会土崩瓦解, 所以仅仅是在首次允许每月一次的转移进行之后才这样 做,所以才会在约旦河西岸地区煽动骚乱。至于以色列,早已注意到了这点,他们已经与哈 马斯博弈了很久,自从 2004 年以来就在不停地商议停火事宜。 Some Israelis think that they have something to gain by having Hamas on board. “Political accommodation between the two major Palestinian factions offers Israel the assurance that its negotiating partner has the political legitimacy, even if not the full backing, of the Palestinian people,” says Yonatan Touval of Mitvim, a liberal foreign-policy think-tank in Tel Aviv. Before

cutting aid for good, Mr Netanyahu may wait to see who exactly will be in the Palestinians' unity government and what its programme will be—indeed, whether it will happen at all. 一些以色列人认为,拉拢哈马斯会获得相当可观的利益。 “巴勒斯坦两大主要派别的政治和 解确保了以色列的政治合作伙伴具有合法性和正统性,即使这并非为所有巴勒斯坦人所支 持。 ”一位身处特拉维夫市、名为 Yonatan Touval of Mitvim 的自由主义外交政策研究者如是 说。在切断援助之前,内塔尼亚胡可能会先观察一下组建巴联合政府的都有谁,还有就是这 个新组建的联合政府究竟会打什么算盘——确实是这样,不管这一切是否会发生。 2015-06-23 人权和欧洲 为权利上演的宫心计 Human rights and Europe 人权和欧洲 Playing to the right 为权利上演的“宫心计” The Conservatives' plans to reform human-rights laws are a muddle 保守党针对人权法案的改革计划如今还是一团糟 “UNWORKABLE”, “contradictory” and “incoherent”. Those were among the epithets that have greeted the Conservative Party's plans to reform Britain's human-rights laws. The Tories have long wanted to scrap the Human Rights Act (HRA), passed in 1998 by a Labour government. On October 3rd Chris Grayling, the justice secretary, promised to do just that as the Tories gear up for a May election in which the Eurosceptic UK Independence Party (UKIP) threatens to lure away voters. In fact, the reforms will change less than supporters hope or critics fear. “不切实际” 、 “相互矛盾”又“杂乱无序” 。这些词汇都是舆论对保守党改革英国人权法案 计划的反应。一直以来保守党都想废除人权法案(HRA) ,该法案于 1988 年被工党政府通 过生效。司法部长克里斯格雷林于 10 月 3 日承诺此种举动仅是保守党为了一个“五月的选 举”做准备,对此选举最反欧的英国独立党(UKIP)扬言会拉拢选民。实际上,此项改革 能改变的远不到支持者所期望的或是批评者所担忧的那样。

The HRA incorporated into British law the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), which Britain signed (and helped to draft) more than half a century ago. The act allowed Britons to pursue human-rights violations in British courts, rather than going to the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg. Although demonised by the Tories as European interventionism, the HRA actually made it more likely that human-rights cases would be heard in domestic courts, albeit in the light of internationally agreed principles. 英国 HRA 将纳入大英律法,它于半个多世纪前签署(并协助起草)后缔结成欧洲 人权公约(ECHR)。此项法案允许英国人在英国法庭之上追究人权侵害之责,而 免于奔赴位于斯特拉斯堡的欧洲人权法院。 虽然保守党将该法案歪曲成了欧盟干

涉主义,但是根据国际公认的原则,HRA 实际上更加使得有关人权的案件能在国 内法院受审。 Several decisions by the European court have particularly upset the Conservatives. The court ruled that Britain's ban on any prisoners voting was unlawful; it laid down that whole-life sentences should be subject to review; and it insisted that Abu Qatada, accused of terrorist offences, should not be deported to Jordan without guarantees that neither he nor those giving evidence at his trial would be tortured. Eurosceptics and British tabloids have seized on these cases as evidence of European meddling in British affairs. 欧洲法院所做出的一些决议,犹使保守党焦躁不安。法院规定,英国针对囚犯投 票的任何禁令是违法的;它主张有关终身性的判决应该受到审查;而且法院坚持 认为在没有对他或是其他与审判庭上提供证据的人免受责难的担保之下, 被指控 恐怖主义犯罪的阿布卡塔达不应被流放到约旦。 欧洲怀疑论者和英国的小报抓住 这类案件作为欧盟干预英国事务的证据。 The Tories say they will replace the HRA with a new Bill of Rights. They argue that Britain has a long history of its own human-rights laws (including Magna Carta) and that the European court is overreaching. The Conservatives want to limit the rights of individuals (notably foreigners) under the convention in certain circumstances. The European court's judgments would be merely advisory as far as British courts are concerned. If the Council of Europe, the guardian of the convention, refuses to accept these changes, Britain would withdraw from the convention. 保守党表示他们将以一个全新的权利法案替代 HRA。他们认为,英国在很长一段 历史上拥有自己的人权法案(包括《大宪章》)但欧洲法院如今过分干预。遵从 公约为前提,保守党希望在某些情况下限制个人权利(特别是外国人)。只有英 国法院还是有些忠实的, 那么欧洲法院的判决也仅是参考而已。如果欧洲理事会 —公约的监护者—拒绝接受这样的改变,英国将退出该公约。 In fact the ECHR has less legal power than first appears. International treaties are difficult to enforce, and the court cannot force Britain to change its laws even now. Prisoners do not have the vote despite the court's objection to Britain's ban. The main problem is political; other members of the Council of Europe may not want to put up with Britain continually ignoring the court's rulings, as the Tories' proposals suggest they might. 实际上,相较于 ECHR 的首次亮相,如今它拥有的法律权力弱了很多,国际条约 难以强制执行, 即使现在法院也不能强制英国改变它的法律。尽管法院反对英国 的禁令,但是囚犯还是没有投票权。这主要是因为政治性问题;由于保守党的提 议表明他们可能会继续无视欧洲法院的裁定, 而其他欧洲理事会成员国也可能不 想容忍英国的这种无视。


Nor has European human-rights legislation proved as restrictive as critics suggest. In 2012, of 2,146 foreign offenders ordered to be deported, just 256 successfully appealed on human-rights grounds. In the 16 years since the HRA came into force, domestic courts have made 28 “declarations of incompatibility”, holding that British laws conflict with the European convention. In 2013, of 1,652 British cases dealt with in Strasbourg, judges found violations in just eight. 欧洲的人权立法也不如批评家们指明的限制性。2012 年,在被命令驱逐的 2146 名外国罪犯中, 仅有 256 名成功的以人权缘由上诉。自 HRA 生效施行的 16 年间, 国内法院给出了 28 次有关“无法兼容的通告”,认为英国法律与欧洲公约存在 冲突。2013 年,在斯特拉斯堡处理的 1652 起英国案件中,法官发现仅有 8 起出 现违规。 Without the HRA, the liberties enshrined in the European convention would still apply to Britons, who would then have to revert to going to Strasbourg about human-rights violations, as they did before its introduction. If the promised Bill of Rights were at odds with the convention, appeals would multiply. 没有 HRA,欧洲公约中的一些自由许恒星能仍旧适用于英国人,随之英国人就必 须恢复到奔赴斯特拉斯堡处理人权侵害的问题—就像在签署公约之前一样做。 若 是承诺的权利法案与公约还是存在冲突,上诉可能会增多。 Even if it ditched the ECHR, Britain would still be bound by the EU's Charter of Fundamental Rights, which draws on the convention. It would also remain bound by other international treaties. The UN Convention against Torture prohibits deporting people to places where they maybe abused. The Declaration of the Rights of the Child makes expelling foreign criminals with offspring in Britain tricky. And, since the act was passed, at least some of the convention rights–such as those not to be tortured or held indefinitely without charge–have become more firmly rooted in English common law (which is based on precedent), argues Philippe Sands, a law professor at University College London. 即使英国挣脱了 ECHR,它还是会受到《欧盟基本权利宪章》的限制,因为该宪 章的制定借鉴了欧洲人权公约。英国同样会受到其他国际条约的制约。 《联合国 禁止酷刑公约》表明,禁止将人流放至他们可能受虐的地方。儿童权利宣言使得 驱逐外国罪犯同时要机警处理他们在英国的后代。而且自从人权法案被通过,至 少有一部分公约的权利—像是那些没有被虐待或是并无指控无限期收监的人— 会变得越来越扎实的植根在英国普法之中(基于先例的普通法律),来自伦敦大 学的法学教授菲利普桑斯如是表明。 Devolution complicates matters further. The convention is incorporated into devolution legislation and the Good Friday agreements in Northern Ireland. Scottish police could therefore become subject to different human-rights obligations for crimes for which Westminster has responsibility (terrorism, say) and for those devolved to Scotland (most

other offences). Having survived the Scottish vote on independence, the Conservatives' proposals may shake the union again. 权力下放会使事情更加复杂化。 公约被纳入授权立法和 《北爱和平协议》 。 因此, 苏格兰警方会遵从于不同的人权责任针对那些英国议会责任的罪犯 (恐怖主义) , 和那些被移交至苏格兰的罪犯(大部分因为其他罪行)。在苏格兰独立公投中胜 利了,保守党的提议可能会再一次撼动这个联合王国。
Yet for those who bemoan Europe's influence, the court is a lightning rod for discontent. The Tory proposals look like a sop to them, ahead of an election. But the message that such changes would send is a bad one. Five countries, led by Russia and Turkey, were responsible for more than half the violations found by the European court last year. Getting them to comply with its rulings will be harder if Britain will not do so. For citizens of countries less committed to the rule of law than Britain, the court sometimes offers a final hope. 然而对于那些哀叹欧洲影响力的人来说,欧洲法院就是他们宣泄不满的“避雷针”。在选举 之前,保守党的提议看似安抚了他们。但是这种变化发出的信息走势并不好。由俄罗斯和土 耳其领导的五个国家, 要对在去年由欧洲法院发现的一半以上的违规行为负责。 如果英国不 愿遵守裁决,那么要让这五国一起依从裁决将会变得难上加难。鉴于相较于英国,这五个国 家的公民那较弱的坚定程度,偶尔给法院还带去了最后的希望。 2015-06-29 大学在伊朗 重新苏醒 Iran's universities 大学在伊朗 Breathing again 重新苏醒 The new president is giving students a longer leash 新总统将为学生提供更大的自由发展空间 “AT LEAST one thing hasn't changed”, remarked a Tehran University professor who had recently returned to work after several years. “The faculty still gossips terribly.” But under President Hassan Rouhani bigger changes onIran's leading campus—and perhaps in universities elsewhere—may also be on the way. “至少有一点没有改变” , 德黑兰大学一位重返工作岗位不久的教授对此评论道, “学院里依 旧流言四起。 ”但是在总统哈桑鲁哈尼的带领下,伊朗的主要院校或者各个地方的大学将会 发生更大的变化。 One sign of this was the recent sacking ofTehranUniversity's conservative chancellor. Appointed in 2008 by Mr Rouhani's populist predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, he had overseen the expulsion of independent-minded students and academics, promoting mediocre yes-men and stifling the intellectual atmosphere.


最近德黑兰大学保守派校长的解雇是其迹象之一。在 2008 年被鲁哈尼总统的前任—拥趸民 粹主义的马哈茂德艾哈迈迪内贾德所任命,他曾监督驱逐具有个人主义思想的学生和学者, 支持具有中庸思想的服从主义者从而形成了令人窒息的文化氛围。 Since his departure, things have loosened up. Last month over 1,000 students gathered to hear a lecture by Immanuel Wallerstein, an 83-year-old, left-wing American sociologist. Widely translated into Persian, he is respected acrossIran's intellectual spectrum, albeit under various interpretations. For some, he is a herald ofAmerica's decline, affirmingIran's official narrative. For others, he still represents America, even if he challenges the global status quo. 自从鲁哈尼的上任以来,这一方面有所放松。上个月有 1000 多名学生聚集在一起参加了美 国 83 岁的左翼社会学家伊曼纽尔沃勒斯坦的讲座。他的观点被广泛的翻译成波斯语,尽管 有着不同的诠释方式,伊曼纽尔沃勒斯坦在伊朗的学术界备受尊重。在一些人看来,他预示 着美国的衰落,肯定了伊朗官方的叙述,然而另外一些人认为他依旧代表着美国,尽管他向 全球的现状发起了挑战。 In the early years of this century, under the presidency of Muhammad Khatami, Western intellectuals visited quite often. Under Mr Ahmadinejad, they virtually stopped coming. But since Mr Rouhani was elected last summer, intellectual waters are being tested again. Hosted by the Iranian Sociological Association, Mr Wallerstein's lecture tour included two other notable universities, atShirazandIsfahan. 在本世纪早期,在穆罕默德哈塔米总统的领导下,西方的知识分子经常访问伊朗。在艾哈迈 迪内贾德当政时,他们几乎停止了往来。但是自从鲁哈尼去年夏天当选总统,学术界再次活 跃起来。 在伊朗社会学会的主持下, 沃勒斯坦的巡回演讲在另外两所著名的大学设拉子和伊 斯法罕举办。 Many of the students did not know who he was, but wanted to see an American scholar anyway. When he observed that third-world regimes born out of revolution tended to create the same social and economic problems their founders had promised to solve, a frisson rippled through the ssembly. At the back of the hall, where students craned to see him, whistles and applause erupted. 许多学生并不知道沃勒斯坦是谁, 但是不管怎么说他们期待着见到这位来自美国的学者。 他 觉察到诞生于革命的第三世界政权存在着社会经济问题死灰复燃的迹象, 而这些问题也正是 政权建立者们曾经承诺解决的, 这一现象在议会中引起了强烈的反响。 在大厅的后面学生们 伸长着脖子去看沃勒斯坦,爆发出热烈的掌声和间或的口哨声。


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