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赏析版 2013 年 7 月经济学人文章(英汉双语对照)汇集

[2013.07.01] Egypt: Morsi's choice 埃及总统穆尔西的抉择 ........................................................ 1 [2013.07.02] Using maths to explain the universe 用数学解释整个宇宙 ...................................... 3 [2013.07.06] Transatlantic espionage: The lives of others 窃听风暴 .............................................. 8 [2013.07.06]Stem-cell therapies: Prometheus unbound 干细胞治疗............................................. 11 [2013.07.06] LVMH and Hermè Hidden predators 路威酩轩 vs.爱马仕 .................................. 15 s: [2013.07.12] New film: "Pacific Rim" 新电影: 《环太平洋》 .................................................... 17 [2013.07.13] The Arab spring: Has it failed? 阿拉伯之春失败了吗? ........................................ 20 [2013.07.13] Going for growth 亚洲谋求经济发展之道 ............................................................. 23 [2013.07.13] Children’s intellectual development 儿童智力发展 ................................................ 26 [2013.07.13] The rising dollar: Green and back 美元的复苏和回归............................................ 28 [2013.07.13] Financial data: Seconds out 金融讯息提前外漏 ..................................................... 31 [2013.07.13] Free exchange: Ad scientists 搜索引擎广告效果研究 ............................................ 33 [2013.07.13] The economy: The haves and the have-nots 富国穷国 ............................................ 36 [2013.07.20] Glad to be grey 长白头发是好事情? .................................................................... 43 [2013.07.20] The triumph of low expectations 不失望只因期望少 ............................................. 45 [2013.07.20]Bandwagon behaviour 从众行为 .............................................................................. 49 [2013.07.23] Britain’s recovery: Hold your breath 英伦复苏路漫漫 ........................................... 53 [2013.07.27]The Great Deceleration 金砖四国经济大减速 ......................................................... 55



[2013.07.01] Egypt: Morsi's choice 埃及总统穆尔西的抉择

Morsi's choice 穆尔西的抉择
Jul 1st 2013, 22:12 by M.R. | CAIRO WHAT would you do if millions of citizens poured into streets demanding that you go? On television during his election campaign last year, Muhammad Morsi answered without hesitation. First, he said, people would not demonstrate against him because as president he would faithfully represent their will. “But if they do,” he added firmly, “I would be the first to resign.” 如果有几百万民众涌入街头示威要求你下台,你会怎么做?去年穆罕穆德?穆尔西在电视上发表竞选 演讲时毫不犹豫地回答了这个问题。他回答道,首先,民众不会示威反对他,因为作为总统,他会 切实代表民意。同时,他也坚定地说:“如果民众真的反对我,我会不假思索地辞职。” But Egypt’s first freely-elected president has not resigned, yet, despite nationwide protests on June 30th that were far bigger than those that brought down his predecessor, Hosni Mubarak, two and a half years ago. Not only did the vast crowds bring every major city in Egypt to a standstill, amid an impromptu general strike. In scores of villages and provincial towns, protesters invaded government offices and shut them down by force, as police looked on approvingly. They also invaded, torched and looted the Cairo headquarters of the Muslim Brotherhood, the secretive fraternity that nurtured Mr Morsi and carried him to power. Five of his own ministers resigned, too, the latest in a long string of defections in the 12 months since Mr Morsi took office. 但是,这位埃及第一个民选总统食言了,尽管在六月三十日,全国范围内反对穆尔西的浪潮比两年 半前迫使上一任总统穆巴拉克下台的反对声音要猛烈的多。在埃及的各个大城市中,大批民众自发 组织罢工,这些城市几乎陷入停滞状态。在很多村镇和省级城市,反对者在警方的默许下冲入政府 办公室并强行关闭这些办公场所。他们还闯入穆斯林兄弟会(一个隐秘的兄弟会,培养并扶持穆尔 西上台)在开罗的总部,打砸抢烧不所不做。穆尔西自上台以来的十二个月里受到了太多的背叛, 而据最新消息,他的五个部长也相继辞职,这无疑为其受到背叛的记录上又添上了浓重的一笔。 As if still more prompting were needed, on July 1st, Egypt’s army issued an ultimatum. If the country’s bickering civilian politicians do not find ways to meet people’s demands within 48 hours, it said, the army will issue its own political road map for them to follow. Given the extreme polarisation of Egypt’s politics, and the accelerating evaporation of the Brotherhood’s constituency, there does not seem to be much incentive for Mr Morsi’s opponents to compromise. 人们好像认为这场冲突需要更多的助推器,于是在七月一日埃及军方对冲突发布了最后通牒。通牒 指出,如果那些为小事争吵不断的平民政治家不能在 48 小时内满足群众的要求,军方将发布自己指 导国家发展的政治路线图。考虑到埃及极端两极分化的政策以及迅速减少的穆兄会支持者,想让穆

经济学人中文网 尔西的反对者妥协看来是不可能的。 For hundreds of thousands of Egyptians who came out for a second day of cheerful protests, there was no doubt what the army’s diktat meant: Mr Morsi is finished. Lending further credence to this supposition, a squadron of army helicopters, each trailing a giant Egyptian flag, circled Cairo’s Tahrir Square in a triumphant show of force that was met with roars of approval. The military also paid an unannounced visit to the Nile-side headquarters of Egypt’s state broadcasting system. The officials Mr Morsi had appointed to run Egyptian TV and radio quietly exited. 第二天,数十万埃及民众涌入街道欢呼雀跃,对他们来说,军方的命令无疑意味着穆尔西的统治已 经结束。而当拖着巨大埃及国旗的军方直升机队伍盘旋在开罗塔利尔广场上方进行胜利表演时,也 赢来了民众的阵阵欢呼声,这也更加证实了民众的猜想。埃及军方还未通知就前往位于尼罗河岸边 的埃及广播电视台总部。穆尔西任命的埃及广播电视台官员早已悄悄地被撤换。 Despite the army's insistence that its ultimatum does not amount to a coup, some have already declared its intervention a “soft coup”, not unlike its move, in 2011, to usher Mr Mubarak out of power. The military lingered too long then, during the tumultuous transition before Mr Morsi’s term, earning opprobrium for human rights abuses and general ham-fistedness. But a precipitous slide in Egypt’s economy under civilian rule, accompanied by lawlessness and corruption, has aided in shortening memories. With Mr Morsi’s administration having signally failed to tackle the country’s myriad and deep problems, opposition to it has snowballed over recent weeks into an avalanche. Opinion polls from before the recent protests gave Mr Morsi an approval rating of around 30%. This has certainly now shrivelled as even fellow Islamists have abandoned a clearly sinking ship. Still, the Muslim Brotherhood has hundreds of thousands of active members, and millions of sympathisers. Containing their unhappiness will be a pressing challenge. 尽管军方一再强调此次的最后通牒不是政变, 但某些人认为此次军方对政治的干预就是一场“较为缓 和的政变”,和 2011 年推翻穆巴拉克政府的行动一样。在当时穆尔西政府之前的骚乱过渡期,军方 长期留恋权位,导致埃及民众的人权遭到践踏,社会混乱,从而引发民众对军方的强烈不满与抨击。 然而在平民政权的统治下,埃及的经济形势急剧下滑,再加上法制的缺失和官员腐败,使得人们暂 时忘记了军方的错误。由于穆尔西政府在处理国家大量深层问题时明显表现出的无能,过去的几周 内反对派的声音如滚雪球般急剧起来,最终导致雪崩。在最近的抗议冲突之前的民调显示,穆尔西 那时的支持率是 30%。当然现在他的支持率肯定降低了很多,因为即使是伊斯兰同胞也放弃了他这 艘行将沉没的船了。然而,穆兄会仍有十几万积极分子以及几百万怜悯同情者。平抚他们的不满情 绪将不会是件容易的事。 Egypt’s military has not revealed what its “road map” might look like. Most analysts expect that, having absorbed lessons from its last intervention, the army may this time both act more forcefully and set a quicker pace. The expectation is that its goal will be a return to civilian rule, under a revised and more inclusive constitution than the one that Mr Morsi hastily forced through last year. But despite the sudden eruption of public enthusiasm for the army, worries do linger. Could it be that now, armed with massive public backing and having dispensed with the Brotherhood, the only civilian party strong enough to challenge them, Egypt’s soldiers may be tempted to stay in power?


经济学人中文网 埃及军方目前仍没公布其“政治路线图”。大多数分析人士预测,吸取了上次干预的教训,埃及军方 这次会更加迅速地实施更严厉的军事打击。目前民众希望军方推动宪法修改,使之与去年穆尔西强 推的那部宪法相比更具包容性,并在此基础上恢复文官统治制度。但虽然军方获得了公众意想不到 的热情支持,顾虑仍然存在。埃及的士兵们获得了广大群众的支持,打败了穆兄会(唯一能够与军 方抗衡的平民团体) ,没了约束,埃及军方也许会贪恋权力? http://www.ecocn.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=193351&fromuid=272265 译者:moona88188

[2013.07.02] Using maths to explain the universe 用数学解释整个宇宙
Quick Study: Leonard Susskind on string theory 快速学习:与伦纳德-萨斯坎德讨论弦理论

Using maths to explain the universe 用数学解释整个宇宙
Jul 2nd 2013, 12:52 by A.B. LEONARD SUSSKIND is a professor of theoretical physics at Stanford University and director of the Stanford Institute for Theoretical Physics. He is regarded as one of the fathers of string theory, a somewhat controversial attempt to explain physics using a single mathematical framework. 伦纳德-萨斯坎德是斯坦福大学的理论物理学教授兼斯坦福理论物理研究所的主任.人们认为他是弦 理论的开创者之一,该理论试图利用单一的数学框架解释物理学,存在一定的争议。 He is the author of several popular-science books about matters cosmological. His new book, “The Theoretical Minimum”, co-written with George Hrabovsky, an amateur physicist, is a primer for readers who want to know how to think like a physicist. 他撰写了若干本宇宙学的大众科学读物。他的新书《理论最小值》是与业余物理学家乔治-拉博夫斯 基合作完成的,读者若想学习如何像物理学家一样思想,这本书可作为入门读物。 Can you outline what we know about string theory? 请你概括一下我们对弦理论的了解? The most important single thing about string theory is that it’s a highly mathematical theory and the mathematics holds together in a very tight and consistent way. It contains in its basic structure both quantum mechanics and the theory of gravity. That’s big news. 弦理论最重要的一点是,它是一个高度数学化的理论,在整个理论中数学结合的方式非常严密和一 致。量子力学和万有引力理论都包含在弦理论的基本结构中。这点非常重要。 Why? 为什么呢?

经济学人中文网 Basically, from the time of Einstein’s [theory of] general relativity there was no good idea about how quantum mechanics and gravity fit together. They were always at each other’s throat, apparently inconsistent. String theory’s biggest and most important impact is to show that gravity and quantum mechanics can and do fit together. That, more than anything else, has maintained interest in it. 简单来说,爱因斯坦提出广义相对论时,当时并没有能把量子力学和万有引力统一起来的好理论。量 子力学和引力总是相互矛盾,明显不能统一。弦理论最大、也是最重要的影响在于,它显示引力和量 子力学是可以统一的,并且确实是统一的。这一点比弦理论的其余方面都更引人注目。 String theory presumes the existence of extra spatial dimensions. How do we know they exist? 弦理论假设有更高的空间维度存在.我们怎么知道它们存在? It must be so because it is so deeply embedded in the mathematics and not easy to explain. I pride myself on being able to explain things to a broad audience, but sometimes you have to say it’s buried in the mathematics. [The theory] just doesn’t work unless you add six more dimensions to the world and we’ll have to leave it at that. 其他维度肯定是存在的,因为它深深根植在数学之中,而且不太容易解释。 我对自己向广大观众解释问 题的能力引以为豪,但有时必须得说,它就深藏在数学里。除非你给宇宙额外加上 6 个维度,否则(该 理论)根本就不能用,我们只能这样了。 Okay, but why have we been unaware of them until now? 好吧,但为什么直到现在我们才开始意识到它们存在? Because they’re tiny. 因为它们很小很小。 So, we can’t understand these dimensions because they are too small? 就是说,因为这些维度太小了所以我们无法理解? Yes. 是的。 And what difference do the dimensions make to the layperson’s understanding of the universe? 这些空间维度和普通人对宇宙的理解有什么区别? These extra dimensions can be arranged and put together in many different patterns, in a variety of different ways. Not billions, trillions or quintillions of ways, but many more than that. The ways these dimensions are put together into these tiny little spaces determine how particles will behave, what particles will exist, what the constants of nature are—quantities like dark energy or the electric charge of an electron. In string theory all those things are features of the ways that these tiny dimensions are put together. The tiny dimensions are like the DNA of the universe.


经济学人中文网 这些额外的空间维度能以许多不同的样式排列和组合起来,方法多种多样.十亿,万亿,百万兆种方法都 不止,比这还要多得多.这些维度在微小的空间内如何组合,决定了粒子会如何表现,会有什么粒子存 在,无量纲物理常数是多少——即暗能量或者电子电荷的量是多少,诸如此类。在弦理论中,这些东 西都是微小的空间维度按照一定组合方式后产生的特性。这些微小的维度就像是宇宙的 DNA。 Yet there are physicists who don’t think string theory is correct. 但有物理学家认为弦理论是错误的。 Oh, well, I suppose there are! We don’t know if string theory is true. 噢,好吧,我想肯定有!我们也不知道弦理论是不是正确的。 I thought you said the maths stacks up? 我想你之前说过弦理论数学上能自圆其说? There is a difference between mathematical internal consistency and whether or not it describes nature. We can write mathematical theories that are not the right theory of nature—geometry, for example. There’s Euclid’s geometry; positive curve geometry; the geometry of a sphere. Which is the right geometry of space? They’re all consistent, mathematically uncontradictory. But it’s a different thing to say a mathematical theory is consistent and that it describes the real world. 一种理论,其数学的内在一致性,和它是否正确描述自然是有区别的。我们可以写出在自然界中不 适用的数学理论——比方说,在几何学里,有欧几里得几何;正曲线几何;球面几何。哪一种几何 是适用于空间呢?它们全都具有一致性,数学上无懈可击。但某个数学理论具有一致性和它能够描 述真实世界完全就是两码事。 How could we find out whether string theory describes nature or not? 我们怎样知道弦理论是否描述自然? If they can co-exist with each other. If that’s all string theory does then it’s still an enormous conceptual advance. 看二者能否并存。如果弦理论仅仅是和自然并存而已,它概念上仍是一个巨大的进步。 Unless it isn’t true; in which case gravity and quantum mechanics aren’t related. 除非它是错误的;这样的话引力和量子力学就不统一了。 Well, right, but they have to be related because they both exist in the same world. 呃,对,但引力和量子力学必须是统一的,因为它们存在于同一个宇宙。 What is dark energy? 暗能量是什么? It is the energy of empty space. It’s there just because empty space is there. If you have a box full of particles, each particle has an energy MC2, then you stretch the sides of the box and make it bigger and the energy dilutes, meaning that the energy density goes down. Dark energy doesn’t thin out. You expand the

经济学人中文网 box but the amount of energy per unit volume remains the same. 就是真空的能量。因为真空存在,所以暗能量就存在。如果你有一个装满了粒子的盒子,每个粒子 的能量是 MC2,然后你把盒子的各个面拉长,扩大它的体积,于是能量被稀释了,意味着能量密度 就下降了。但暗能量不会被稀释。你的盒子膨胀了,单位体积的(暗)能量大小仍保持一致。 Does it definitely exist and can you measure it? 暗能量绝对存在吗?可以测量吗? Yes, it exists. We have measured it by the expansion of the universe. Energy is what causes the universe to expand, and the way that it dilutes as it expands controls how fast it expands and the detailed way in which it expands. There is an absolute 100% confirmation of the idea that dark energy exists. 是的,暗能量是存在的。你可以通过宇宙膨胀来测量。能量是导致宇宙膨胀的原因,而能量是如何 稀释的, 控制着宇宙膨胀速度的快慢, 以及宇宙膨胀的具体方式。 暗能量的存在是绝对 100%确定的。 Where did it come from and what is it doing? 暗能量从哪来?有什么作用? Since the birth of quantum mechanics physicists understood that quantum field theory—the basic underlying theory of quantum mechanics, of electrons and photons and all those things—should provide every tiny bit of space with a huge amount of this undiluting kind of energy. That energy should gravitate. They understood that and they did not understand why this source of gravitation didn’t seem to turn the universe into an incredibly rapidly expanding universe that would double in size every ten to the minus 42 seconds. 自从量子力学诞生以来,物理学家就认识到,量子场论——量子力学,电子和光子等微观物体的基 础理论——应该为空间的每个微小片段设置大量这类不会稀释的能量。这种能量还应该产生万有引 力。他们懂得这一点,但他们不理解的是,为什么这个引力的来源没有迹象要把这个宇宙变成一个 急剧膨胀、体积每过 10 的负 42 次方秒就会翻倍的宇宙。 The real question was not “what is dark energy?” it was “where is dark energy?” For many years Einstein and others thought that the dark energy must be zero because it was so tiny. Nobody could detect it and it couldn’t be detected in the expansion of the universe. What was most remarkable was when it was discovered that it was not zero, but it was 123 orders of magnitude smaller. 真正的问题不是“什么是暗能量?”,而是“暗能量在哪?”很多年来,爱因斯坦和其他人都认为暗能 量一定是 0, 因为它是如此之小。过去没有人能探测到它,并且它也无法从宇宙膨胀中探测到。所以 当物理学家发现暗能量不是 0,而是小 123 个数量级时,这成为暗能量领域最值得关注的发现。 Is the universe still expanding? If so, how much can it expand and will it eventually implode? 宇宙现在还在膨胀吗?如果是,它能膨胀到什么地步,会不会最终发生内爆? No, no, no. Before the dark energy was discovered there were three possibilities: that it would implode, that

经济学人中文网 it would continue to expand or that it would expand at an ever decreasing rate. Once the dark energy was discovered and discovered to be positive it was shown that it will continue to expand. 不不不。在发现暗能量之前,人们假设有三种可能:内爆,继续膨胀,或者膨胀的速度不断下降。 一旦发现暗能量确实存在,就说明了宇宙还会继续膨胀。 The equations as we know them now do not seem to permit the possibility that it will implode. As it expands the dark energy won’t dilute. It’s vacuum energy. In every bit of volume there is the same amount, but the electrons, protons or neutrons will spread out, so what we can look forward to is a universe that is completely empty. 我们现今所知的公式没有显示出宇宙有内爆的可能性。宇宙不断膨胀,暗能量也不会稀释。它是真 空的能量。在每一个空间小片段里,暗能量都是等量的,但电子、质子和中子会扩散开,所以我们 可以预见宇宙最终将完全空无一物。

If the universe is expanding there must be something into which it’s expanding? 如果宇宙正在膨胀的话,一定有什么东西容纳了宇宙膨胀出来的部分? Ah-ha! No. You are a victim of your own neural architecture which doesn’t permit you to imagine anything outside of three dimensions. Even two dimensions. People know they can’t visualise four or five dimensions, but they think they can close their eyes and see two dimensions. But they can’t. When you close your eyes and try to see two dimensions you’ll always see a surface embedded in three dimensions. 啊哈!不对。你被自己的神经结构欺骗了,它让你无法想象任何非三维的东西。甚至二维空间都想 象不了。人们知道自己无法想象四维或五维空间,但他们以为只要闭上眼睛,就能见到二维空间。 但其实不能。当你闭上眼睛试图看到二维空间时,你看到的永远只是三维空间中的一个平面。 Is there something special about three dimensions? No. There is something special about your neural architecture. You evolved in a world where everything inside your brain is hooked up and geared to be able to see three dimensions and nothing else. 难道说三维空间有什么特别之处吗?不是。特别的是你的神经结构。在这个世界里,生物进化让你 大脑中的一切,都是固定专门用来感知三维空间的,再没别的了。 So the universe isn’t something that can be imagined by a human brain? 所以宇宙不是人脑可以想象的东西? That’s right. That’s why we’re stuck using abstract mathematics for the simple reason that our visualisation abilities evolved in a certain environment that just wasn’t appropriate for understanding quantum mechanics and general relativity, so we have to get our intuitions from abstract mathematics. 没错。这就是为什么我们一概使用抽象的数学研究问题的原因,原因很简单,我们的想象力是在特 定的环境中进化而成的,不适合用来理解量子力学和广义相对论,所以我们必须通过抽象数学培养

经济学人中文网 直觉。 So the universe doesn’t have an outside? 所以说宇宙外面什么都没有? It doesn’t have an outside or an inside. It just has the rubber surface. You have to learn to think of the surface of the balloon as being all there is. It’s all there is. 宇宙没有“里面”和“外面”之分。它只有一个橡皮表面。你必须学会把整个宇宙看成一个气球的表面。 除此之外什么都没有。 The Theoretical Minimum: What You Need to Know to Start Doing Physics. By Leonard Susskind and George Hrabovsky. Basic Books; 256 pages; $26.99. Allen Lane; ? 20. Buy from Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk 《理论最小值:在开始研究物理之前你应该懂得什么》 。作者: 伦纳德-萨斯坎德 和 乔治-拉博夫 斯基。 http://www.ecocn.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=193561&fromuid=272265 译者:Wesyman

[2013.07.06] Transatlantic espionage: The lives of others 窃听风暴
【导读】 “棱镜”门后的深思…… Transatlantic espionage 横跨大西洋的谍战

The lives of others 窃听风暴
European governments should not kick up a fuss about American spying. They have too much to lose 欧洲国家政府不应为了“棱镜”门而大吵大闹。因为他们将损失惨重 Jul 6th 2013 | From the print edition NOBODY likes to be spied on, especially by their allies, so it is hardly surprising that Europeans are angry about American espionage operations conducted against them, on their territory. These include spying on the European Union embassy in Washington, DC (with a bug in the fax machine), and on the governments of France, Germany and other countries, as well as the collection of large amounts of electronic data—in Germany’s case half a billion phone calls, e-mails and text messages every month. In a country where Gestapo and Stasi crimes still leave dark shadows, and privacy rights have near-religious significance, that causes outrage (see article). 没人喜欢被监控,更不要说被自己的盟友监控了。所以,当欧洲国家发现,美国人在对他们实施监 控、还是在自己的地盘上时,会火冒三丈就不足为奇了。美国不仅监控了欧盟驻华盛顿大使馆(在

经济学人中文网 其传真机内植入窃听器) 、法德等其他国家政府,还搜集了大量电子数据——就德国而言,其电话、 邮件、信息的被监控量每月达五亿。在德国,盖世太保(Gestapo) 【1】和斯塔西(Stasi) 【2】曾犯 下许多罪行,人们心头的阴影还没消散,加之隐私权的神圣性在这里堪比宗教,美国的窃听行为可 谓激起了民愤(另见文) 。 Many Europeans see in the disclosure further evidence of American arrogance and unaccountability—just another episode in a story that includes an illegal war in Iraq, drone strikes, “extraordinary rendition”, waterboarding and secret prisons. Some European politicians want a punitive response. One idea is to suspend agreements on sharing financial and other data between intelligence and law-enforcement agencies. Another is to halt talks on a big new transatlantic trade deal. A third is to offer asylum to Edward Snowden, the source of the leaks about his former employer, America’s National Security Agency. He is now marooned at a Moscow airport. 在许多欧洲人看来,此次“棱镜”门曝光乃美国人傲慢自大、行事鬼祟的又一明证。当人们目睹了发 生在伊拉克的非法战争、无人机空袭【3】 、“非常规引渡”【4】 、水刑【5】 、秘密监狱【6】等美国的 一系列恶行之后,窃听事件只不过是故事的又一个插曲而已。某些欧洲政客希望对此采取惩罚性对 策。第一种方法是,中止情报局、执法机构间的包括金融数据在内的信息共享协议。第二种,暂停 跨大西洋的大型自由贸易新协议谈判。第三种,为爱德华?斯诺登(Edward Snowden)提供庇护。正 是他对外披露了美国国家安全局(也就是他的前雇主)的秘密文件。目前,斯诺登仍困在莫斯科的 一家机场中。 But any of these grandstanding approaches would be a mistake. One reason is hypocrisy. France has formidable foreign-intelligence services that spy on America, for economic and political advantage. Much of the intelligence that America gathers—especially in counter-terrorism—is shared with European countries. And much of the American activity in Europe happens in partnership with local agencies, even in Germany. Some of this co-operation may be of borderline legality in the countries concerned. Its disclosure may be embarrassing for politicians there. But that is hardly America’s fault. 但是,这些高调的处理方法可能都错了。原因之一——虚伪。法国的外国情报系统极为强大,令人 生畏,它为了经济、政治上的利益,也在监视美国。美国搜集的大部分情报都是与欧洲国家共享的, 尤其在反恐方面。而且美国在欧洲的大部分行动,如果没有当地机构的合作是完成不了的,即便在 德国也不例外。就相关国家而言,其中的部分合作是否合法可能还无法确定。其间种种一旦曝光, 那些国家的政客可能就会因此深陷囧地。不过,这可算不上是美国的错。 A second reason is self-interest. America’s security umbrella allows European countries to feel safe from, for instance, the possibility of future Russian aggression while spending little on defence. But Europeans cannot take such protection for granted. In many American eyes, Europeans are already wobbly, tiresome free-riders who do not police their Islamist extremists properly, breach sanctions, flirt with dictatorships and leak secrets to the Russians and Chinese. America’s armed forces are already draining away from Europe because of Barack Obama’s “pivot” to Asia and a shortage of cash. The last tanks left in April. A petulant European response to the spy row risks speeding the pull-out. 原因之二——自私自利。在美国的安全网保护之下,欧洲国家只需花费少量的国防开支,就可以高 枕无忧,比如,不用担心俄国可能会在将来大举进犯。但欧洲国家不能把这种保护看作理所当然的。

经济学人中文网 在许多美国人眼中,欧洲国家早已是个摇摆不定、招人厌的“蹭饭一族”形象——他们没有妥善地治 理本国的伊斯兰极端主义者,他们违背制裁、和独裁者暗中勾结,向俄国、中国泄漏机密。美国的 武装力量已经从欧洲逐渐消失了, 因为巴拉克?奥巴马的“战略轴心”转向了亚洲, 而且美国缺乏资金。 四月份的时候,最后一批坦克撤离了。欧洲要是这么任性地处理窃听风波,可能会加速美方撤离。 Europe also has most to gain from a transatlantic trade deal. It desperately needs the extra economic growth an agreement would bring (see article). America wants it too—but it is already enjoying a moderate economic revival of the sort the Europeans would kill for, and is also involved in negotiating a similar, transpacific pact, on which it can focus its efforts if the spying row makes dealing with the Europeans too difficult. 而且,跨大西洋自由贸易协议一旦达成,欧洲将成为最大的收益方。它急需这笔协议推动经济发展、 带来额外增长(另见文) 。美国也需要,但它的经济已经处于温和的复苏状态,而这样的增长速度正 是欧洲竭力想达到的。而且美国也正筹备商议一个类似的跨太平洋协议,这样一来,如果窃听风波 严重影响到了它和欧洲国家的谈判,它还可以调整重心,转移到跨太平洋协议上来。 It won’t stop the snooping 窃听活动不会就此停息 Finally, there is the pointlessness of the threat. Even if European governments did cut intelligence links with the Americans, that would not stop the spying. America would continue to conduct operations against all but a handful of truly close allies, such as Canada and Britain. Better to work alongside the Americans, than to treat them as enemies. 最后要说的是,此时相挟,毫无意义。就算欧洲国家政府切断与美方的情报线,窃听活动也不会就 此停息。除英国和加拿大等少数心腹盟友,美国会继续对所有人实施监控。与其把美国当做敌人, 还不如和它并肩作战。 None of this changes America’s need to discipline its spies for its own sake. As this newspaper made clear when the Snowden scandal broke, Americans need a much clearer idea of what is being done in their name. But Europe has most to lose from a transatlantic row. So why start one? 就算是为了自己,美国也该好好整顿一下情报部门了——这一点是一切都无法改变的。正如本报在 斯诺登丑闻被爆时明确所说,美国需要更清楚地弄明白, (间谍)正以美国的名义在干些什么。但欧 洲如果因这起跨大西洋窃听案而和美国闹僵,将会是最大失败者。所以,又何必呢? From the print edition: Leaders


【1】盖世太保(Gestapo) 是德语“国家秘密警察”(Geheime Staats Polizei)的缩写 Gestapo 的音译。

经济学人中文网 它在成立之初是一个秘密警察组织,后加入大量党卫队人员,一起实施“最终解决方案”,屠杀无辜。 随着纳粹政权的需要盖世太保发展成为无所不在、无所不为的恐怖统治机构。 【2】斯塔西(Stasi) 是民德“国家安全部”(Ministerium fü Staatssicherheit)的缩写 r 该团是一支有效的用以镇压可能的谋反或动乱的政治上可靠的国家安全部队。 【3】无人机空袭 美无人机空袭 巴塔"老二"疑丧命 美国自 2004 年开始在巴基斯坦境内实施无人机空袭,声称目的为打击武装人员。 美国无人机空袭导致大量巴基斯坦平民丧生,遭到巴方强烈谴责。 联合国一个调查小组今年 3 月秘密访问巴基斯坦,初步认定美国无人机空袭侵犯巴方主权。 【4】非常规引渡 意大利总统赦免涉嫌“非常规引渡”案前美军官 意大利总统纳波利塔诺 4 月 5 日日发表声明宣布,赦免涉嫌在意大利境内绑架并秘密引渡一名恐怖 分子嫌疑人的前美国空军军官约瑟夫· 罗马诺。 声明说,总统做出赦免决定是希望可以继续维持意大利和美国之间“坚固”的盟友关系,特别是在安 全事务方面。 声明还说,这是首个在意大利被宣判有罪的美国军官,总统希望可以为这桩没有先例的案件找到解 决方案。 【5】水刑 美国中情局为寻拉登信使动用 183 次水刑 水刑指审讯人员用布或纸张盖住审讯对象脸部并向上浇水,或把审讯对象头部浸入水中,模拟溺水 时的窒息感觉。 “9·11”事件后,时任美国总统布什授权中情局酷刑审讯。 中情局 2004 年暂停酷刑拷问,总统奥巴马 2009 年上任后正式禁止这类做法。 【6】秘密监狱 美中情局黑狱获 54 国相助 人权组织吁关秘密监狱 设在美国纽约的人权组织“开放社会司法倡议”发布报告, 指认至少 54 个国家暗中向美国中央情报局 “非常规引渡”行动提供帮助。 这一行动涉及中情局在美国以外地区的绑架、羁押和酷刑。 http://www.ecocn.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=193449&fromuid=272265 译者:_易雪_

[2013.07.06]Stem-cell therapies: Prometheus unbound 干细胞治疗
Stem-cell therapies 干细胞治疗

Prometheus unbound 普罗米修斯自由了


Researchers have yet to realise the old dream of regenerating organs. But they are getting closer 亘古以来,器官再生便是人类的夙愿。如今研究人员虽然还未真正实现,但成功的脚步已经越来越 近
Jul 6th 2013 |From the print edition

1 PROMETHEUS, a Titan bound to a rock by Zeus, endured the daily torture of an eagle feasting on his liver, only to have the organ regrow each night. Compared with this spectacle, a video on the website of Nature this week seems decidedly dull. It shows a collection of pink dots consolidating into a darker central glob. 在希腊神话之中,提坦(Titan)普罗米修斯(Prometheus)被宙斯(Zeus)束缚在一块巨石之上, 白天忍受着老鹰啄食他的肝脏, 夜晚他的肝脏却又总会再次生长。 与生动的故事情节相比, 本周 《自 然》 (Nature)网站上的一段视频就显得如此枯燥。这段视频向世人展示了无数粉红色的小点向中心 聚拢,成为一个颜色更深的团状物的过程。 2 But something titanic is indeed happening. The pink dots are stem cells, and the video shows the development of a liver bud, something which can go on to look and act like a liver. Takanori Takebe and Hideki Taniguchi of Yokohama City University, in Japan, who made the video, have created working human-liver tissue. 但这正是普罗米修斯自由的曙光。那些粉红色的小点就是干细胞,而视频显示的正是肝芽生长的过 程,并且这个肝芽可以进一步发育为,无论是外表还是功能都与肝脏类似的组织。日本横滨市立大 学(Yokohama City University)的武部孝则(Takanori Takebe)和谷口英机(Hideki Taniguchi)拍摄 了这段视频,这次他们培养出了具有功能性的人类肝脏组织。 3 Researchers have long dreamed that stem cells might be used to repair or replace damaged tissue, an aspiration known as regenerative medicine. Embryonic stem cells, in particular, are “pluripotent”, meaning they are able to become any other type of cell. And it is now possible to induce pluripotency in cells that have not come from embryos, thus circumventing the ethical minefield previously associated with obtaining them. 研究人员长期以来都设想干细胞能够用来修复或替换受损组织,该研究领域则被冠名为再生医学。 “多能的”胚胎干细胞被再生医学家们寄予厚望,所谓“多能”就意味着这些干细胞可以分化出多种其 他类型的细胞。现在的技术已经可以在非胚胎细胞中诱导细胞的多能性,这样就可以绕过之前直接 使用胚胎细胞时所引发的伦理争议。 4 Last year Shinya Yamanaka of Kyoto University won a Nobel prize for the invention of induced pluripotency. He had shown how four signal proteins can reprogram adult cells into a pluripotent state. Beside dealing with the ethical problems of embryonic cells, Dr Yamanaka’s induced pluripotent stem (iPS) cells allow—at least in theory—a treatment to be created from a patient’s own body. This would have his own genetic make up and would thus not attract the attention of his immune system. Realising such treatments has been fiendishly difficult. But Dr Takebe’s paper inNature is one of several signs that the Promethean dream is slowly coming to life.


日本京都大学(Kyoto University)的山中伸弥(Shinya Yamanaka)由于成功诱导细胞的多能性而于 去年荣获诺贝尔奖。他公开发表了借助四种信号蛋白,重组成人细胞并使其具有多能性的实验过程。 除了成功躲开了胚胎细胞的伦理问题, 山中博士发明的诱导多能干细胞 (induced pluripotent stem cell, 简称 iPS 细胞) ,使得再生医学(至少在理论上)可以从患者体内提取细胞进行再生治疗。这样就可 以取得患者自身的基因组合,避免了患者免疫系统的排异反应。要真正实现这种干细胞治疗仍然困 难重重,但是武部博士发表于《自然》的论文则是人类又一次向解放普罗米修斯迈出了坚实的一步。 Budding hope 星星之火 5 Clinical trials of pluripotent cells are already happening, though they hark back to the days when only cells derived from embryos were available. An American firm called Advanced Cell Technology (ACT) is using them to treat macular degeneration, a cause of blindness. Last year it reported promising results in two patients and Gary Rabin, the firm’s boss, says tests continue. 多能细胞的临床试验其实早已开始进行,只是这种多能细胞还是由胚胎干细胞所培养(这在当时也 是唯一可用的技术) 。美国先进细胞技术公司(Advanced Cell Technology,简称 ACT)正运用多能细 胞治疗可能致盲的黄斑变性。 去年该公司报告了两例有望好转的临床病患, 公司老总加里?拉宾 (Gary Rabin)也表示,试验仍会继续。 6 Even if this specific approach works, though, it is likely to be overtaken by iPS technology. The Japanese, not surprisingly, are in the lead. Soon, the country’s health ministry is expected to approve the first clinical trial of iPS cells, also for macular degeneration. But ACT is not far behind. It hopes to begin a trial of platelets (blood-cell fragments involved in clotting) made from iPS cells. And other firms want to treat everything from Parkinson’s disease to glaucoma to multiple sclerosis. 不过,即使这一临床试验终获成功,也有可能会被 iPS 技术所取代。日本在 iPS 技术方面无疑领先 于世界其他各国。该国卫生部应该不久便会批准 iPS 细胞的第一例临床试验,同样也是治疗黄斑变 性。然而 ACT 也并未脱离战队,该公司希望开始一项 iPS 细胞培养血小板(参与凝血过程的血液细 胞碎片)的试验。还有些公司则希望透过 iPS 技术治疗其他疾病,包括帕金森病、青光眼、多发性 硬化等。 7 Academia is pushing ahead as well. Inspired by Dr Yamanaka’s work, people are looking for other shortcuts to pluripotency. Marius Wernig of Stanford University, for instance, has worked out how to use three proteins to turn connective-tissue cells into neurons. Deepak Srivastava of the University of California, San Francisco, meanwhile, has shown how to convert connective tissue into heart cells. 学术界则正在进一步地研究 iPS 技术。受到山中教授研究成果的启发,人们纷纷开始探究诱导细胞 多能性更为便捷的其他途径。斯坦福大学(Stanford University)的马吕斯?维米格(Marius Wernig) 就发现了使用三种蛋白质, 将结缔组织细胞转化为神经细胞的方法。 加州大学旧金山分校 (University of California, San Francisco)的迪帕克?司里瓦斯德瓦(Srivastava)则发表了将结缔组织转化为心肌 细胞的过程。


经济学人中文网 8 Other research is going beyond simple cell cultures. In 2011 Yoshiki Sasai of the RIKEN Centre for Developmental Biology, in Kobe, showed how mouse embryonic stem cells, if mixed with a few appropriate growth factors, quickly form a three-dimensional cluster made of the precursor cells to neurons. This cluster then turns into something resembling the back of an eye. Last year Dr Sasai repeated the trick with human cells. 还有一些研究就没有局限于简单的细胞培养领域。左使良树(Yoshiki Sasai)任职于神户(Kobe)的 理化研究所发育生物学中心(RIKEN Centre for Developmental Biology) 。他于 2011 年发表论文,阐 述了老鼠胚胎干细胞在给予一些适当的生长因子后,快速形成一个三维立体簇集物的过程。而这种 簇集物由多种细胞构成(包括前体细胞和神经细胞等) ,并进而发育成一种类似于眼底结构的组织。 去年左使博士使用人类细胞再次重复了这一实验过程。 9 The dream is to make a complex organ from scratch. With this in mind researchers at Wake Forest University in North Carolina have used a three-dimensional printer to produce an artificial kidney using immature kidney cells. But if such organs are to work in people, they will need blood vessels to deliver oxygen and nutrients. 人们的梦想就是从无到有地创造出一个复杂的器官。为了实现这个梦想,北卡罗来纳州(North Carolina)维克森林大学(Wake Forest University)的研究员们使用三维打印技术,用不成熟的肾脏 细胞做出了一个人造肾脏。不过要让这样的肾脏在人体内正常工作,其中还是缺少了用于输送氧气 和营养物质的血管。 10 The way to do that might, paradoxically, be for scientists to do less. Instead of making the whole organ in a laboratory, they might create a less-developed form, as Dr Sasai did with his proto-retina, and then leave the rest of the work to the body. 如果真要实现这个梦想,科学家可能用不着在肾脏中再造血管——这听起来可能有些自相矛盾—— 他们其实不必在实验室中造出完整的人体器官。科学家可以先造出还没发育完全的器官试样(如同 左使博士培养出视网膜试样一般) ,然后在活体体内完成剩下的研究工作。 11 This is what Dr Takebe has done with his liver buds. He coaxed some iPS cells into becoming liver endodermal cells. (The endoderm is one of the three cell layers of which the youngest sort of embryo is composed, and is the layer from which the liver develops.) He then cultured them with two other cell types: endothelial cells, which make up the inner linings of blood vessels, that were derived from umbilical cord; and mesenchymal stem cells, derived from bone marrow, which can differentiate into several kinds of cells, though not as many as pluripotent cells. 武部博士的肝芽生长研究正是遵照这样的器官再造思路而完成的。他小心地将一些 iPS 细胞导入合 适的肝脏内胚层细胞。 (内胚层是三层细胞层中,构成最原始胚胎、也是形成肝脏组织的那一层。 ) 然后将这些肝脏内胚层细胞与其他两种细胞一起培养。一种是取自脐带的内皮细胞,这种细胞构成 了血管内层;另一种细胞是取自骨髓的间充质干细胞,这种细胞可以分化成多种细胞类型(但种类 没有多能细胞那么多) 。 12 Cultures without mesenchymal stem cells failed to form a cluster. Those without endothelial cells failed

经济学人中文网 to create a network of blood vessels. But together, the three types of cell, with little additional prodding, formed a bud within two days. 实验证明,如果培养过程中缺少间充质干细胞,就不会形成簇集物;而如果没有内皮细胞,就无法 形成血管网络。只有将肝脏内胚层细胞与这两者结合,并配合少量的其他刺激,才最终能在两天内 形成肝芽。 13 At six days this bud was expressing genes known to be early markers of the liver. And when Dr Takebe implanted such buds into the brains of mice whose immune systems had been disabled to prevent rejection (he chose the brain because it is easy to fit the cranium with a tiny clear plate, so that you can see what is going on), he observed that they connected with the mouse’s blood system within two days. 到了第六天,肝芽开始表达一些在肝脏早期形成阶段具有标志性的基因。随后,武部博士将这些肝 芽结构植入一些丧失免疫能力的老鼠的脑中,这样老鼠就不会对肝芽组织形成排斥反应。 (选择脑部 的原因是因为在头颅上植入一块透明的小塑料板较为容易,这样就能看清脑内组织的生长过程。 )武 部博士发现,两天内肝芽结构就与这些老鼠脑中的血液循环系统相互融合了。 14 After two months the buds not only looked like liver, they acted like it. They produced liver-specific proteins. And if Dr Takebe transplanted them to their host’s abdominal cavity, having first caused the animal’s real liver to fail, they often kept the mouse alive when an animal without the transplant would have died. 两个月后,肝芽结构除了看上去像肝脏外,也具有了肝脏的生理功能——他们产生出了肝脏独有的 蛋白质。然后武部博士又将这些肝芽结构移植到了相应老鼠的腹腔中,起初肝芽结构会破坏老鼠体 内自身的肝脏,但是接着很多老鼠并没有死亡(这些老鼠本就患有肝脏疾病,不进行肝脏移植的话 不可能存活) 。 15 Translating this work into a way of growing new livers for people whose old ones have stopped working will take time. But it is a big step forward. After years of promise, regenerative medicine may be coming close to delivering. 诚然,要将这个过程(新肝脏生长替换丧失功能性的受损肝脏)在人类身上临床试验仍需时日。但 在老鼠体内的实验已是继往开来的重要一步。在人们年复一年的期盼中,再生医疗终会有实现梦想 的那一天。 http://www.ecocn.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=193462&fromuid=272265 译者:gangangwen

[2013.07.06] LVMH and Hermè Hidden predators 路威酩轩 vs.爱马仕 s:
LVMH and Hermè s 路威酩轩与爱马仕的较量

Hidden predators 隐形的捕食者


Most countries no longer let firms build up unseen stakes 多数国家不再放任公司秘密增持股份
Jul 6th 2013 | PARIS |From the print edition

1 A SWOOP was always a possibility. LVMH, maker of Louis Vuitton bags, Mo? et Chandon champagne t and much more, is the world leader in luxury goods and known for swallowing smaller firms. Hermè s provides the cognoscenti with leather goods, silk scarves and ties, and is just such a smaller firm. 在商业社会,弱肉强食时刻可能发生。作为路易威登手袋、酩悦香槟等众多知名品牌的缔造者,酩 悦?轩尼诗-路易?威登集团(LVMH,以下简称“路威酩轩集团”或“路威酩轩”) 除了在奢侈品行业处于 国际领军地位外,还因吞并较小的竞争对手而出名。这一次,路威酩轩将眼光瞄准了为高品位客户 提供皮具、丝巾和领带的爱马仕(Hermè s)公司。 2 But it was nonetheless a shock when, on October 27th 2010, LVMH announced that it owned 17.1% of Hermès’s shares, even though market rules usually require notification when a stake as small as 5% is acquired. Hermè cried foul. Courts and regulators responded; and on July 1st the sanctions committee of s the Autorité des Marché Financiers (AMF), the market regulator, imposed an 8m ($10.4m) fine, the s biggest in its history. LVMH had failed to disclose its stake at several points when it should have done, it said, and committed some accounting irregularities too. 尽管市场交易规则通常要求持股人在持股比例达 5%以上时就应对外进行公告, 但令人震惊的是 2010 年 10 月 27 日路威酩轩集团突然宣布持有爱马仕公司 17.1%的股权。法院及监管部门对爱马仕公司 的抗议作出了回应;而 7 月 1 日,法国金融市场管理局制裁委员会作为市场监管部门,对路威酩轩 处以了史上最重的罚款——800 万欧元(相当于 1040 万美元) 。制裁委员会认为路威酩轩集团未能 在规则规定的几个时点履行披露义务,同时还存在会计违规行为。 3 The tale, as recounted by the AMF, began in the early 2000s, when LVMH acquired 4.9% of Hermè s outright. In 2008 two indirectly controlled LVMH subsidiaries, in Luxembourg and Hong Kong, entered into cash-settled equity swaps with three French banks. The contracts allowed the group to bet on the future price of Hermè shares without actually owning them. Because LVMH’s swaps were to be settled in cash, s the rules of the day did not require disclosure. But in June 2010 two of the banks agreed to settle in shares (the third did so later). LVMH should have revealed its holding then, the AMF argues. 根据金融市场管理局所述,事情可以追溯到本世纪的头几年,当时路威酩轩总共收购了爱马仕公司 4.9%的股份。2008 年,路威酩轩集团通过分设在卢森堡和香港的两个间接子公司,与三家法国银行 达成了以现金交割的股权互换交易。该交易协议允许路威酩轩集团在未实际持有爱马仕股份的情况 下对其未来股价走势投注。由于路威酩轩的互换交易约定到期以现金交割,故根据当时的监管规定 无需对外披露。但在 2010 年 6 月,其中两家银行同意以爱马仕的股份进行交割(第三家银行随后也 同意了) 。金融市场管理局认为,路威酩轩集团在该时点本应当披露其持股情况。 4 LVMH is appealing against the decision, which will hurt its reputation more than its pocketbook. In fact, it may not be too unhappy. The fine is less than the 10m maximum. And the AMF says that no single action by LVMH broke the rules; it was the concatenation of deals that indicated preparation of a financial

经济学人中文网 transaction and that required disclosure. 路威酩轩集团针对金融监管局的裁决提起了上诉。相较于经济损失,裁决给路威酩轩造成的负面影 响将主要在声誉方面。事实上,可能路威酩轩也不会因此过于烦恼。一来,路威酩轩集团所受罚金 不到规定的 1000 万欧元最高罚款额。二来,根据金融市场管理局的认定,路易威登所从事的各项交 易行为单独来看并未违反披露规则;只是将各交易联系起来则显示路威酩轩集团正在筹备一项金融 交易,这项交易本身按规定需要进行披露。 5 The case harks back to an earlier era when firms routinely snuck up on unsuspecting targets under cover of derivative darkness. Children’s Investment Fund Management surprised CSX, an American rail company, in 2007; Schaeffler Group crept up on its tyre-making rival, Continental, in 2008. Most spectacularly, Porsche built up a nearly 75% stake in Volkswagen (VW) in part through undisclosed derivatives; when its interest was revealed in October 2008, VW’s share price quintupled as short-sellers rushed to cover their bets. 上述案例不禁令人想起早些时候公司进行并购的套路——利用衍生品披露方面的漏洞作为掩护,在 毫无防备的目标公司股权中设下埋伏。例如,2007 年英国对冲基金儿童投资基金(Children’s Investment Fund Management)正是利用上述手法令美国铁路公司 CSX 措手不及;2008 年德国舍弗 勒集团 (Schaeffler Group) 也是用此方式悄悄包围了其轮胎制造竞争对手德国大陆集团 (Continental) 。 其中最受关注的案例,当属保时捷公司(Porsche) 部分通过未披露的衍生品交易,增持大众汽车 (Volkswagen )股份至将近 75%;当 2008 年 10 月保时捷对大众的收购意向公开后,大量做空投资者 为完成对赌交割抢购大众汽车的股票,致其股价翻了 5 倍。 6 Even before the financial crisis, countries were beginning to rewrite the rules to stop this happening. Of the big countries Britain’s regime is perhaps the strictest, but Germany, the Netherlands, France (as of 2012) and Switzerland all now require prompt disclosure of relatively small equity stakes, including exposure through derivatives. (America is the laggard: the Securities and Exchange Commission has been considering reform proposals for a long time.) The lawsuits linger, however. A clutch of investors have lined up against Porsche; the first substantive hearing in the biggest of these cases may start in October. And the AMF may not have had the final word on LVMH: Hermè filed a criminal complaint in September s 2012 alleging market manipulation and insider trading. 早在金融危机发生前,各国就开始修订规则以杜绝上述行为的发生。在几个大国中,英国的监管体 制恐怕是最为严格的,但德国、荷兰、法国(自 2012 年起)和瑞士目前都要求在持股(包括通过衍 生品形成的风险敞口)比例相对较低的时候就应立刻进行披露。 (美国在这方面比较落后:美国证券 交易委员会长期以来一直在酝酿改革方案) 。然而,相关诉讼的进程远未结束。投资者们纷纷对保时 捷提起诉讼;其中最大的案件 10 月才会进行初次实体审理。而且法国金融市场管理局对路威酩轩的 裁决恐怕也并非一锤定音:爱马仕公司已于 2012 年 9 月以市场操纵和内幕交易为名,对路威酩轩集 团提起了刑事自诉。 http://www.ecocn.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=193477&fromuid=272265 译者:babahippox

[2013.07.12] New film: "Pacific Rim" 新电影:《环太平洋》
New film: "Pacific Rim"

经济学人中文网 新电影: 《环太平洋》

Odiously destructive 令人厌恶的破坏场面
Jul 12th 2013, 14:17 by N.B. CINEMA'S year of mass destruction continues. The recent Superman reboot, “Man Of Steel”, was rightly criticised for laying waste to towns and cities in the name of family entertainment. Several more of 2013’s blockbusters, including such supposedly child-friendly fare as “GI Joe: Retaliation”, have toppled skyscrapers as casually as if they were skittles. Now comes “Pacific Rim”, an apocalyptic giant-robots v giant-aliens slugfest which treats civilisation to a dozen earthquakes’ worth of damage. 电影院里,今年又是毁天灭地的一年。有人批评最近重拍的超人电影《钢铁之躯》是“以家庭娱乐的 名义毁坏城市和城镇”,这话非常中肯。在 2013 年的另外几部大片里,一幢幢摩天大楼就保龄球瓶 一样,谈笑间倾倒坍塌,就连据说是适合儿童观看的《特种部队:全面反击》也不能免俗。现在《环 太平洋》来了!这部讲述末世背景下巨型机甲与巨大异形聚众斗殴的电影,用来招待人类文明的可 是相当于十几次地震的破坏。 What’s particularly disappointing is that the film is co-written and directed by Guillermo Del Toro, the Mexican director behind such acclaimed haunting, atmospheric fantasies as “The Devil’s Backbone” and “Pan’s Labyrinth”. Like Tim Burton, Mr Del Toro has always been better at envisioning weird creatures than at telling resonant stories, but in “Pacific Rim” he cares less than ever about anything that isn’t a computer-generated monster. 该片之所以特别令人失望,是因为担任导演和部分编剧的是吉列莫?德尔托罗。这位墨西哥导演曾执 导过一批鬼魅缠绵、大气磅礴的奇幻电影,广受好评,例如《鬼童院》和《潘神的迷宫》 。与蒂姆? 伯顿一样,一直以来,德尔托罗都更擅长想象各种奇怪的生物,而不是通过叙事让观众产生共鸣, 但在《环太平洋》这部电影中,除开电脑制作出的怪兽,任何其他东西都不如他过去的作品来得用 心。 The film is set in the near future. A gateway between universes has opened at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean, and gargantuan, Godzilla-like fiends called Kaiju keep popping through and wading towards major metropolises. The human race’s response to these attacks is to aim a nuclear arsenal at the gateway, ready to fire whenever another Kaiju makes an appearance. Actually, no, that would be too rational. According to the logic-free script, co-written by Mr Del Toro and Travis Beacham, humans have instead decided to build mountain-sized combat robots called Jaegers, which are operated by two-man teams of pilots in Iron Man armour. Any resemblance to “Transformers” and “Independence Day”, or indeed to “Iron Man” and “Godzilla”, is purely co-incidental. 影片的背景是不远的未来。太平洋海底打开了一个空间传送门,被称为“怪兽(kaiju)”的类似哥斯拉的 巨型恶魔不断从中冒出,朝着世界主要的大都市跋涉。面对进击的怪兽,人类的应对方式是用核武 器对准传送门,做好一见到怪兽现身就来上一发核弹的准备。说错了,事实上,对于这部影片来说 这样的情节太过理性了。根据德尔托罗和特拉维斯?比彻姆合作写就的毫无逻辑的剧本,人类决定建

经济学人中文网 造有山那么高的格斗机器人,名曰“机甲猎人(Jaegers)”,依靠两位穿着钢铁侠盔甲的驾驶员操纵。 本片若与《变形金刚》《独立日》《钢铁侠》《哥斯拉》有任何雷同之处,纯属偶然。 、 、 、 The strangest aspect of the film is that the story—the arrival of the aliens, the construction of the war machines—is all consigned to a montage before the opening titles. By the time the film gets underway, the Jaeger v Kaiju bouts have been going on for decades, which means that there’s precious little plot left for the remaining two hours. Oddly, there are almost no heroics, no rescues, no overcoming of obstacles or solving of problems. Instead, various gruff military types played by Idris Elba, Charlie Hunnam and other not-quite-stars stand around in their gloomy headquarters, where they debate the bewilderingly petty issue of who Mr Hunnam’s new co-pilot should be. None of these characters has any more personality than their mechanical buddies, and the world’s civilian population is all but ignored—until, that is, it is time for it to be decimated by grappling Kaiju and Jaegers. 最奇怪地方在于,影片的剧情——外星人到来、建造战争机器等等——在片头字幕出现之前,已经 用蒙太奇手法统统交代完了。等到电影正式开始的时候,机甲猎人与怪兽已经交手几十年了——这 意味着影片还剩两个小时,而剧情已经所剩无几了。诡异的是,英雄壮举、营救平民、克服挫折、 解决难题等元素,在影片情节中几乎毫不存在。反观人物方面,德瑞斯?艾尔巴、查理?汉纳姆和其 他不算明星的演员扮演了各色不苟言笑的军人类型角色,只会站在阴暗的总部里,争论一些让人摸不 着头脑的琐碎问题,比如应该让谁来当汉纳姆的新副驾驶等等。这些角色中没有一个人比他们的机器 伙伴多一点人情味,并且整个世界文明的人口都被省略了——除非轮到他们卷入怪兽和机甲猎人的 缠斗、惨遭灭顶之灾的时候。 Of course, these overgrown fight scenes are the film’s raison d’etre. If you are keen to see two colossi punching each other in slow motion, while wreathed in torrential rain and ocean spray, then “Pacific Rim” is well worth the price of a ticket. The effects are undoubtedly spectacular, even awe-inspiring. As a long, moody commercial for a range of non-existent toys, the film is the sort of harmless, hollow fantasy which any 11-year-old boy might come up with if he had $150m to play with. It is certainly not actively offensive in the manner of the sleazy and sexist “Transformers” franchise. Yet there is something odious about a film which involves the smashing of hundreds of buildings, but which doesn’t have the faintest concern for the innocent people who would be killed in the process. At a time when comparable scenes of devastation can be seen on the news, in stories about flooding in China or a train crash in Canada, we might well pine for the days when effects-packed summer movies provided some escapism. 当然,这些冗长的打斗镜头才是这部影片存在的理由。如果你非常想看两个庞然大物沉浸在汹涌的 暴雨和飞溅的海浪之中我打你一拳、你打我一拳的慢镜头,那么《环太平洋》是完全值回票价的。 毫无疑问,影片有着壮观的特效,甚至可谓令人惊叹。作为为一系列不存在的玩具而拍摄的商业片, 这部电影可以归类为那种空洞而无害的科幻片,随便找一个 11 岁的小男孩给他 1.5 亿美元都可以拍 出来。当然,本片的观感没有低级庸俗且男权主义浓重的《变形金刚》系列那么咄咄逼人。但这部 电影也有其可憎之处,比如有把几百栋建筑砸得粉碎的镜头,但整个过程中没有对丧生的无辜群众 表现出一丝顾虑。影片偏偏在这段时间上映,中国发生的洪水和加拿大的火车爆炸事故,让我们在 电视新闻上就可以看到类似的毁灭场面。我们也许会怀念过去的日子,那时的暑期电影也是堆满特 效,但至少能让我们稍稍逃避一下现实。 http://www.ecocn.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=194020&fromuid=272265 译者:Wesyman



[2013.07.13] The Arab spring: Has it failed? 阿拉伯之春失败了吗?
The Arab spring 阿拉伯之春

Has it failed? 这场革命失败了吗?
Despite the chaos, the blood and the democratic setbacks, this is a long process. Do not give up hope 民主是一场漫长的征程。纵然路上充满了混乱、流血乃至倒退,也万勿放弃希望。 Jul 13th 2013 |From the print edition ROUGHLY two-and-a-half years after the revolutions in the Arab world, not a single country is yet plainly on course to become a stable, peaceful democracy. The countries that were more hopeful—Tunisia, Libya and Yemen—have been struggling. A chaotic experiment with democracy in Egypt, the most populous of them, has landed an elected president behind bars. Syria is awash with the blood of civil war. 阿拉伯世界爆发革命已经快两年半了。但是,迄今为止,尚未有一个国家可以明确地说已经走上了 正轨,已经建立起稳定与和平的民主制度。那些希望较大的国家仍在苦苦挣扎,如突尼斯、利比亚 和也门;作为阿拉伯世界中人口最多的国家,埃及的民主实验混乱不堪,民选总统已经沦为其阶下 囚;叙利亚内战血流成河。 No wonder some have come to think the Arab spring is doomed. The Middle East, they argue, is not ready to change. One reason is that it does not have democratic institutions, so people power will decay into anarchy or provoke the reimposition of dictatorship. The other is that the region's one cohesive force is Islam, which—it is argued—cannot accommodate democracy. The Middle East, they conclude, would be better off if the Arab spring had never happened at all. 有人由此得出结论认为,阿拉伯之春是一场注定要失败的革命。这一点也不奇怪。在他们看来,中 东之所以会有今天,是因为他们还没有为变革做好准备。他们提出了以下两个论点:一,中东地区 没有民主机构,因此民众势力要么会陷入无政府状态,要么会驱使独裁政权做出重新定位;二,作 为该地区一只具有凝合力的势力,伊斯兰主义无法做到同民主制度的融合。因此,要是阿拉伯之春 压根就没有发生,中东的情况会比现在好很多。 That view is at best premature, at worst wrong. Democratic transitions are often violent and lengthy. The worst consequences of the Arab spring—in Libya initially, in Syria now—are dreadful. Yet as our special report argues, most Arabs do not want to turn the clock back. 这种观点,往好处说是欠考虑,往坏处说就是谬误之论。向民主转型是一个漫长的过程,其间经常 充满了暴力。虽说阿拉伯之春的最坏后果——这种后果最初出现在利比亚,现在在叙利亚——非常 可怕。但是,正如我们在本期的专题报道中所指出的那样,大多数阿拉伯人并不想让时光倒流。 Putting the cart before the camel 革命应当循序渐进 Those who say that the Arab spring has failed ignore the long winter before, and its impact on people's lives.

经济学人中文网 In 1960 Egypt and South Korea shared similar life-expectancy and GDP per head. Today they inhabit different worlds. Although many more Egyptians now live in cities and three-quarters of the population is literate, GDP per head is only a fifth of South Korea's. Poverty and stunting from malnutrition are far too common. The Muslim Brotherhood's brief and incompetent government did nothing to reverse this, but Egypt's deeper problems were aggravated by the strongmen who preceded them. And many other Arab countries fared no better. 那些认为阿拉伯之春已经失败了的人忽视了革命之前那段漫长的冬天,以及那个冬天对民众生活所 造成的影响。在 1960 年时,埃及与韩国尚不分上下,他们的人均预期寿命与人均 GDP 都基本相同。 可如今,他们已经成了生活在不同世界的两个国家。尽管生活在城市中的埃及人比过去多出很多, 而且其四分之三的人口已经摆脱了文盲的状态,但是这个国家的人均 GDP 只有韩国的五分之一。贫 穷随处可见,因营养不良而影响发育的现象比比皆是。穆斯林兄弟会的短命政府缺乏能力,他们没 能扭转这种状况,而埃及更深层次的问题却因为他们之前强人政治而日渐恶化。不仅埃及如此,其 他阿拉伯国家也好不到哪里去。 This matters, because, given the Arab spring's uneven progress, many say the answer is authoritarian modernisation: an Augusto Pinochet, Lee Kuan Yew or Deng Xiaoping to keep order and make the economy grow. Unlike South-East Asians, the Arabs can boast no philosopher-king who has willingly nurtured democracy as his economy has flourished. Instead, the dictator's brothers and the first lady's cousins get all the best businesses. And the despots—always wary of stirring up the masses—have tended to duck the big challenges of reform, such as gradually removing the energy subsidies that in Egypt alone swallow 8% of GDP. Even now the oil-rich monarchies are trying to buy peace; but as an educated and disenfranchised youth sniffs freedom, the old way of doing things looks ever more impossible, unless, as in Syria, the ruler is prepared to shed vast amounts of blood to stay in charge. Some of the more go-ahead Arab monarchies, for example in Morocco, Jordan and Kuwait, are groping towards constitutional systems that give their subjects a bigger say. 这是一个重要的观点。因为,鉴于阿拉伯之春并不是一个同步的进程,许多人会认为,答案应该到 现代化的独裁统治中去寻找。比如说,奥古斯都· 皮诺切特或者李光耀就是这方面的例子。他们都是 那种既能让社会秩序保持不变又能让经济实现增长的人物。但是,阿拉伯世界不同于东亚,阿拉伯 世界没有资格去吹嘘自己。这是一块缺乏智慧型领导人的地区。在这里,没有领导人愿意随着经济 的繁荣而自愿去培育民主制度。相反,这个地区有的是独裁者的兄弟和第一夫人的表兄,那些最好 的商业都被他们所霸占。独裁者总是小心谨慎,他们不愿激起民愤,他们一直在故意逃避改革,他 们一直在回避挑战。例如,在埃及,仅能源补贴一项就吞噬了该国 GDP 的 8%。当需要取消这项补 贴时,政府却始终行动迟缓。如今,即便是那些靠石油而致富的国家也在尝试着用金钱来换取和平; 但是,随着受过教育的和被剥夺了公民权的年青一代尝到了自由的滋味后,过去那套老办法已经越 来越行不通了,除非统治者,就像叙利亚那样,准备用无数的鲜血来换取政权的延续。当然,阿拉 伯世界中也有一些思想开明的君主,如摩洛哥、约旦和科威特的国王。他们正在摸索着前进,他们 准备建立一套能够让批评者获得更多发言权的宪政体系。 Fine, some will reply, but Arab democracy merely leads to rule by the Islamists, who are no more capable of reform than the strongmen, and thanks to the intolerance of political Islam, deeply undemocratic. Muhammad Morsi, the Muslim Brother evicted earlier this month by the generals at the apparent behest of many millions of Egyptians in the street, was democratically elected, yet did his best to flout the norms of democracy during his short stint as president. Many secular Arabs and their friends in the West now argue that because Islamists tend to regard their rule as God-given, they will never accept that a proper

经济学人中文网 democracy must include checks, including independent courts, a free press, devolved powers and a pluralistic constitution to protect minorities. 对此,有人会这样说:很好。但是,请不要忘记,阿拉伯不会有民主制度,这场革命只会让伊斯兰 主义者成为统治者。同那些强人相比,他们的改革能力也大不到那里去,而政治伊斯兰也缺乏宽容 心,这是一种从骨子里透着反民主本质的政治。本月早些时候,当埃及军方将来自穆斯林兄弟会的 穆罕默德· 穆尔西赶下台时,他们看似是顺应了数百万街头抗议者的请求。而对于穆尔西来说,他虽 然是一位民选的总统,但就是这位民选的总统在其短短的任期内,总是竭力想要摧毁那些民主的规 范。如今,许多世俗的阿拉伯人和他们的西方朋友都一致认为,由于伊斯兰主义者认为他们的权力 来自上天,因此他们永远也不会接受这样一种观点:一套体面的民主制度必须包括能够起到制衡作 用的机构,如独立的法庭、自由的出版制度、分散的权力体系和一部能够保护少数派的多元化宪法。 This too, though, is wrong. Outside the Arab world, Islamists—in Malaysia and Indonesia, say—have shown that they can learn the habit of democracy. In Turkey too, the protests against the autocratic but elected prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, have more in common with Brazil than the Arab spring. Turkey, for all its faults, is more democratic today than it was when the army lurked in the background. 然而,这种观点也是错误的。阿拉伯世界之外的伊斯兰主义者——如马来西亚和印度尼西亚的伊斯 兰主义者——已经用自己的行动证明,他们能够学会民主的习惯。另一个例子是土耳其。在这个国 家中,尽管民众已经起来抗议民选总理埃尔多安的专制独裁,但这场抗议活动同巴西有着更多的相 同之处,而不是同阿拉伯之春有着更多的相同之处。尽管土耳其仍存在着这样和那样的不足,但是 如今的这个国家早已不再是军方在幕后操纵的那个国家了,她是一个更加民主的国家。 The problem, then, is with Arab Islamists. That is hardly surprising. They have been schooled by decades of repression, which their movements survived only by being conspiratorial and organised. Their core supporters are a sizeable minority in most Arab countries. They cannot be ignored, and must instead be absorbed into the mainstream. 因此,阿拉伯的伊斯兰主义者才是问题的关键。这并不令人感到惊讶。几十年来,当局一直把他们 当做是镇压的对象,他们只有依靠有组织的秘密活动才能生存下去,他们已经从中学到了很多经验 和教训。在大多数阿拉伯国家中,他们的核心支持者是一个人数可观的少数派。这是一股不容忽视 的力量,必须要让他们融入主流社会。 That is why Egypt's coup is so tragic. Had the Muslim Brotherhood remained in power, they might have learned the tolerance and pragmatism needed for running a country. Instead, their suspicions about democratic politics have been confirmed. Now it is up to Tunisia, the first of the Arab countries to throw off the yoke of autocracy, to show that Arab Islamists can run countries decently. It might just do that: it is on its way to getting a constitution that could serve as the basis of a decent, inclusive democracy. If the rest of the Arab world moves in that direction, it will take many years to do so. 埃及的政变之所以是一场悲剧,其原因正在于此。假如穆斯林兄弟会仍在执政,他们有可能会学会 管理一个国家所必须的宽容和务实。相反,事实却证实了他们对民主政治的怀疑。如今,这种情况 又即将在突尼斯上演。作为第一个摆脱独裁枷锁的阿拉伯国家,她应该能够告诉世人,阿拉伯伊斯 兰主义者能够像样地管理一个国家。她可能就是这样做的:这个国家即将通过一部能够作为民主制 度基础的宪法。如果其他的阿拉伯国家也朝着这个方向努力,他们可能要花费数年的时间。 That would not be surprising, for political change is a long game. Hindsight tends to smooth over the messy bits of history. The transition from communism, for instance, looks easy in retrospect. Yet three years after

经济学人中文网 the fall of the Berlin Wall, Europe was overrun by criminal mafias; extremist politicians were prominent in Poland, Slovakia and the Baltics; the Balkans were about to degenerate into war and there was fighting in Georgia. Even now, most people in the old Soviet bloc live under repressive regimes—yet few want to go back. 这没有什么可大惊小怪的,因为政治变革本来就是一场漫长的博弈。在这场博弈中,后知后觉往往 能让历史的混乱章节变得缓和起来。比如说,当我们现在再来回顾从共产主义到民主制度的转变时, 那似乎是一场轻而易举的转变。然而,如果我们在柏林墙倒塌三年后看那场转变,当时的欧洲到处 都是黑帮分子在作乱;在波兰、斯洛伐克和波罗的海诸国,极端政客大行其道;在巴尔干地区,战 争一触即发;在格鲁吉亚,各方激战正酣。即使到现在为止,那些前苏联地区的大多数民众仍旧生 活在集权政权之下。然而,即便如此也没有几个人想回到以前。 Don't hold back the tide 请勿逆流而动 The Arab spring was always better described as an awakening: the real revolution is not so much in the street as in the mind. The internet, social media, satellite television and the thirst for education—among Arab women as much as men—cannot co-exist with the deadening dictatorships of old. Egyptians, among others, are learning that democracy is neither just a question of elections nor the ability to bring millions of protesters onto the street. Getting there was always bound to be messy, even bloody. The journey may take decades. But it is still welcome. 在世人的眼中,阿拉伯之春更像是一场觉醒。相比之下,真正的革命并不是过多地发生在街头,真 正的革命更多地是发生在人们的思想中。互联网、社交媒体、卫星电视以及对受教育的渴望不可能 与僵死的老式独裁统治共生共存。民主即不仅仅是选举的问题,也不是带领数百万抗议者走上街头 的能力。通向民主的道路注定曲折不平,甚至血腥暴力。这是一场可能需要数十年才能走完的征程。 但即便如此,它仍然是一场受欢迎的征程。 http://www.ecocn.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=193622&fromuid=272265 译者:fsz

[2013.07.13] Going for growth 亚洲谋求经济发展之道
Boom and bust in Asia 亚洲的兴衰

Going for growth 谋求经济发展
Explaining Asia’s economic success is as easy as one, two, three 亚洲经济成功的秘诀用三点就足以概括 Jul 13th 2013 |From the print edition How Asia Works: Success and Failure in the World’s Most Dynamic Region. By Joe Studwell. Grove; 366 pages; $27. Profile; ? 14.99. Buy from Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk 《亚洲是如何运作的——论全球最具活力地区的成与败》 ,Joe Studwell 著。Grove 出版社出版,全

经济学人中文网 书 366 页 , 售 价 27 美 元 。 英 国 地 区 将 由 Profile 出 版 社 出 版 , 售 价 14.99 英 镑 。 Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk 有售。 IN 1989 John Williamson, a British economist in Washington, DC, listed ten economic policies that enjoyed the backing of the IMF, the World Bank and many of their clients in Latin America. Whatever the merits of these policies, the “Washington consensus”, as he called it, proved badly named. Its prescriptions—stabilise, privatise and liberalise—have caused no end of controversy. Almost 25 years later, they get another drubbing in Joe Studwell’s provocative new book, “How Asia Works”. 1989 年,英国经济学家 John Williamson 在华盛顿提出了十条经济政策,受到了国际货币基金组织、 世界银行以及拉丁美洲多国的支持——这也就是他所谓的“华盛顿共识”。事实证明,无论这些政策 有何种优点,都远远算不上什么“共识”。“共识”指出要采取稳定化、私有化和自由化的措施,由此 引发了无数争议。大约二十五年后的今天,Joe Studwell 推出了一本措辞激进的新书《亚洲是如何运 作的》 。在这本书里,Williamson 的这些经济政策又一次被批驳得体无完肤。 But Mr Studwell’s own manifesto for economic success does resemble the Washington consensus in one respect: it holds that poor economies can prosper by following a short recipe of tried and tested policies. This is now an unfashionable approach among economists, who have turned their attention from policies to “institutions”: the social and political constraints that weigh on ministers, whatever policies they avow. Most authors shy away from prescriptions for success, arguing that every development dish is different. 然而,就某方面而言,Studwell 本人对经济成功的阐述确实和“华盛顿共识”有几分相似之处:他认 为贫穷经济体可以对某些经过尝试和考验的政策进行些许模仿,以实现自身的繁荣。可经济学者们 如今并不看好这种途径,已经把目光从政策转向了“体制”方面:因为无论政界高官支持何种政策, 社会和政治方面的约束总是会让他们裹足不前。很多作家都认为每个国家或地区的发展模式都是与 众不同的,不愿意写书来阐述什么经济成功之道。 Mr Studwell has no such inhibitions. Asia’s post-war miracle economies emerged, he argues, by following a recipe with just three ingredients: land reform; export-led, state-backed manufacturing; and financial repression. Studwell 却没有这种顾虑。他认为,有些亚洲经济体在战后奇迹般地崛起了,而它们成功的秘诀归 根结底无非就是三点:一是土地改革;二是由出口带动、由国家支持的制造业;三是金融抑制政策。 The process began with the ousting of the landlords. Feudal estates were broken up and divided among small farmers, who also received cheap credit and valuable advice. Smallholder farming requires “grotesque” amounts of labour, Mr Studwell concedes. But that is a good thing, because countries as poor as Taiwan or South Korea were in the 1950s have labour—and only labour—in abundance. 这些经济体的崛起是以地主退出历史舞台为起点的。封建式的私有地产被没收并分配给了小农户, 同时他们还获得了低息贷款和宝贵的经验。Studwell 承认,小农型耕作需要“令人无法想象的”大量 劳动力。但这不失为一件好事:因为在二十世纪五十年代,像台湾或是韩国这样贫穷的地区拥有大 批劳动力——除此之外也没有别的了。


经济学人中文网 Tightly planted, closely tended farms coax the best yields out of each parcel of land. This rural bounty then creates room for the next step: export-led manufacturing. The state, Mr Studwell argues, must nurse manufacturers through their infancy, helping them to learn how to stand on their own feet. This nurture should, however, be combined with discipline: the state must oblige firms to export. Foreign sales provide an external test of their progress, allowing the state to “cull losers”, even if it cannot pick winners. 在这些地区,农场上种满了密密麻麻的作物,又受到了仔细的照料,每一块地都有很不错的产量。 而后, 这种农业上的富庶为亚洲繁荣的下一步创造了空间: 那就是由出口带动的制造业。 Studwell 认 为,国家必须在制造业者尚且处于“婴幼儿期”时为它们提供充分的呵护,让它们学会如何去依靠自 身力量实现发展。然而,在呵护的同时还需要进行约束:国家必须强制要求这些公司进行出口。对 外销量为制造业者的发展提供了一种外在的衡量尺度,让国家得以“淘汰弱者”——即便是在无法挑 选出强者的情况下。 The final secret of Asian success, Mr Studwell argues, was a cowed financial system. Captive savers, penned in by capital controls, were ripped off by the banks, which paid low interest rates. This allowed the banks to subsidise industrial firms through their years of education. Studwell 认为,亚洲成功的最后一条秘诀就是那种受到国家钳制的金融体系。银行提供的存款利率 很低,但储户被资本管制所束缚,除了接受银行的讹诈之外别无选择。这笔资金让银行得以为产业 公司提供了数年的“教育经费”。 Mr Studwell’s recipe is not original: the formula dates back at least 140 years, he shows, to Japan under the Meiji emperor. Only the first step, smallholder farming, would be backed by this newspaper. But “How Asia Works” is a striking and enlightening book, which reflects the author’s unusual career. Having worked as an analyst (for the Economist Intelligence Unit, our sister company) and a consultant, he wrote books on China’s seduction of foreign businessmen and Asia’s crony capitalists. Then he went back to school, embarking on a doctorate at Cambridge, home to a number of unorthodox economists. Studwell 的秘方并非独开先河。他表示这些成功秘诀至少可以追溯到一百四十年前明治天皇统治下 的日本。而本报只对其中的第一步(也就是小农耕作)持支持态度。不过, 《亚洲是如何运作的》这 本书确实富于启迪性,让人耳目一新。它折射了作者不寻常的职业生涯。Studwell 曾经在本报的姊 妹公司经济学人信息部担任过分析人士,也曾经从事过咨询工作。他写过几本书,论述过中国对外 商的吸引力、以及亚洲的裙带资本家等等。而后他回到校园攻读博士学位,进的正是剑桥大学—— 这里有很多不拘传统的经济学家。 The result is a lively mix of scholarship, reporting and polemic. Its heart is a historical account of how smallholder farming, export-led manufacturing and financial repression took root in Asia’s miracle economies, such as Japan and Taiwan, but failed to bed down in the Philippines and Indonesia. This is punctuated by travelogues, describing Asia’s landscape of economic triumph and tribulation, from the kitsch houses of rice farmers in Japan’s Niigata prefecture, who have great agricultural know-how but little architectural taste, to the unfinished towers of Jakarta’s Bank Alley, their growth stunted by the Asian financial crisis. 最终,Studwell 把学术研究、调查报道以及书面论战生动地糅为一体。在一些创造奇迹的亚洲经济

经济学人中文网 体中(比如日本和台湾) ,小农耕作、由出口带动的制造业以及金融抑制政策是如何植根的?在菲律 宾和印度尼西亚,同样的措施又为何没有形成气候?本书重点从历史角度论述了这些问题。书中还 穿插了一些游记见闻,描述了亚洲大地上经济繁荣或是衰颓的景象:Studwell 写到了日本新泻县稻 农的简陋住所——这些农民有高超的农业技术,却不懂什么建筑美学;也写到了雅加达岸巷里尚未 建成的塔楼——由于亚洲金融危机,这些塔楼迟迟未能完工。 The most impressive part of the book is the 68 pages of footnotes in which Mr Studwell dips into his trove of reading and reporting. He includes observations on Javanese chickens, the sex life of a Korean chaebol-founder, the constitutional rules that Meiji-era Japan copied from Prussia and his exchanges with Mahathir Mohamad, Malaysia’s former strongman. 本书让人印象最为深刻的部分就是长达 68 页的脚注。Studwell 读过很多书,也进行过大量报道,在 脚注里他粗略提及了一些。他谈到了爪哇人饲养的鸡,谈到了韩国某个财团创始人的性生活,谈到 了明治时代日本模仿普鲁士设立的宪章,还谈到了他和马来西亚前铁腕领导人马哈蒂尔?穆罕默德之 间的对话。 In these notes, Mr Studwell wanders into the weeds of development (quite literally: Japanese rice is weeded nine times a year, he writes). But he never gets lost. The three-step doctrine he advocates is even shorter than the ten-step Washington consensus he opposes. But it will no doubt prove similarly controversial. 在这些脚注中,Studwell 偶尔会提到一些经济发展中无关紧要的琐事(从字面意义上来说,他写到 日本的水稻一年需要进行九次除草) 但 Studwell 从未偏离主题。 。 相比他所反对的“十步走”式华盛顿 共识,他本人提倡的“三步走”主义甚至更为简略。但毫无疑问,二者都将会充满争议。 http://www.ecocn.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=193645&fromuid=272265 译者:剑刃

[2013.07.13] Children’s intellectual development 儿童智力发展
Children’s intellectual development 儿童智力发展

Bedtime stories 睡前故事
Regular sleeping hours really are good for children—if they are girls 有规律的睡眠时间对儿童真的有好处—如果她们是女孩

Jul 13th 2013 |From the print edition IN THAT mythical era when children were seen and not heard, and did as they were told without argument, everyone knew that regular bedtimes were important. “Dream on!” most modern parents might reply. But research by Yvonne Kelly of University College, London, shows that the ancient wisdom is right—half the time. Daughters, it seems, do benefit from regular bedtimes. Sons do not.


经济学人中文网 在那个孩子们被看见却不被倾听,没有任何异议顺从地去做被告知的事的神话般的年代,人人都知 道有规律的就寝时间很重要。 大部分现代家长可能会这样回复:“怎么可能,做梦吧!”。但是伦敦 大学学院的 Yvonne Kelly 的研究表明,古老的智慧有一半是正确的。有规律的就寝时间对女儿似乎 确实有益,对儿子却没有效果。 Dr Kelly knew of many studies that had looked at the connection between sleep habits and cognitive ability in adults and adolescents. All showed that inconsistent sleeping schedules went hand in hand with poor academic performance. Surprisingly, however, little such research had been done on children. She and a team of colleagues therefore examined the bedtimes and cognitive abilities of 11,178 children born in Britain between September 2000 and January 2002, who are enrolled in a multidisciplinary research project called the Millennium Cohort Study. Kelly 博士熟知很多关于睡眠习惯与成年人、青少年认知能力联系的研究。所有研究都表明,反复 无常睡眠安排和糟糕的学业表现是密切相关的。然而令人惊讶的是,几乎没有关于儿童这方面的研 究。因此,她和她同事组成的团队调查了那些注册参加了“千禧世代研究”多学科研究项目、在 2000 年 9 月到 2002 年 1 月期间在英国出生的 11,178 个孩子的就寝时间和认知能力方面的信息。 The bedtime information they used was collected during four visits interviewers made to the homes of those participating in the study. These happened when the children were nine months, three years, five years and seven years of age. Besides asking whether the children had set bedtimes on weekdays and if they always, usually, sometimes or never made them, interviewers collected information about family routines, economic circumstances and other matters—including including whether children were read to before they went to sleep and whether they had a television in their bedroom. The children in question were also asked, at the ages of three, five and seven, to take standardised reading, mathematical and spatial-awareness tests, from which their IQs could be estimated. 他们用的就寝时间的信息是在四次访问期间,采访者去那些参加了这个研究的家里收集的。访问会 在孩子九个月大,三岁,五岁和七岁时进行。除了问孩子们是否在工作日按时作息以及他们是总是、 经常、有时按时作息,还是从未按时作息。采访者也会收集关于家庭的日常生活惯例,经济状况, 还有其他事项——包括家长是否会在孩子睡觉前读东西给孩子听,孩子的卧室是否有电视。在三岁, 五岁和七岁时,孩子们也会被要求去做标准化阅读、数学还有空间感测试,通过这些测试来评估他 们的智商。 Dr Kelly’s report, just published in the Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, shows that by the time children had reached the age of seven, not having had a regular bedtime did seem to affect their cognition, even when other pertinent variables such as bedtime reading, bedroom televisions and parents’ socioeconomic status were controlled for. But that was true only if they were female. On the IQ scale, whose mean value is 100 points, girls who had had regular bedtimes scored between eight and nine points more than those who did not. Kelly 博士的报告刚在《流行病学和公共健康杂志》上发表,其报告显示在儿童到了 7 岁的时候,即 便在睡前阅读,卧室电视还有父母社会经济地位等相关变量被控制的情况下,没有一个有规律的就 寝时间似乎的确会影响他们的认知能力。但是只有在女孩身上才有这个影响。在智商测量中,女孩 的平均得分是 100 分,有定期就寝时间的女孩的分数比那些没有定期就寝时间的女孩分数要高 8 到

经济学人中文网 9 分。 Boys were not completely unaffected. Irregular bedtimes left their IQs about six points below those of their contemporaries at the age of three. But the distinction vanished by the time they were seven. 男孩并不是完全不受影响。在他们三岁的时候,无规律的就寝时间让他们智商分数要比他们的同龄 人要低大约 6 分。但是当他们到了 7 岁的时候,这个差异消失了。 This difference between the sexes is baffling. Dr Kelly did not expect it and has no explanation to offer for it. As scientists are wont to say, but this time with good reason, more research is necessary. 不同性别之间的不同是令人困惑的。Kelly 博士并没有预料到这点,并且不能对此提供任何解释。就 像科学家们习惯的说的,更多的研究是有必要的,但是这一次有很好的理由。 Meanwhile, in the going-to-bed wars most households with young children suffer, the sons of the house have acquired extra ammunition. Mind you, those with the nous to read and understand Dr Kelly’s results are probably not suffering from their sleep regimes anyway. 同时,在大部分有着年幼的孩子的家庭所痛苦的“去床上睡觉”的战争中,家里的儿子们已经获得了 额外的弹药。注意,无论如何,如果孩子们能够理性地阅读与理解 Kelly 博士的研究结果,他们或 许不会因其睡眠方式而受损。 http://www.ecocn.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=193646&fromuid=272265 译者:kata2016

[2013.07.13] The rising dollar: Green and back 美元的复苏和回归
The rising dollar 美元升值

Green and back 美元回涨
The dollar is enjoying a rare period of strength. How far can the rally go? 美元正值少有的强势发展期。这条复苏之路能走多远?
Jul 13th 2013 |From the print edition

1 VISITORS to America this summer will find their money does not stretch quite as far as on previous trips. The dollar has risen this year against a broad range of currencies, so holiday purchases will be a bit pricier than usual. A strengthening dollar is a rare thing. The upward bursts in the early 1980s and the late 1990s were deviations from a generally falling trend. Since it was freed from the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates four decades ago, the dollar has mostly fallen in value against other rich-world currencies. But a growing band of analysts reckon it is time for the greenback to regain a bit of lost ground. 这个夏天到美国旅游的游客会感受到他们的钱没有以往旅行的经用。今年以来美元对许多货币升值

经济学人中文网 了,所以旅游消费与以往相比有点贵。美元升值其实真不多见;美元在 80 年代初期和 90 年代末期 的短暂爆发只不过是总体下滑趋势中的偏离。自从四十年前美国挣脱了布雷顿森林体系固定汇率的 锁链后,美元对其他发达国家货币几乎一直都在贬值。然而,越来越多分析家认为,美元稍作反弹 的时候到了。 2 The immediate spur for optimism about the dollar is the recent signalling from the Federal Reserve that its purchases of bonds with newly created money may start to tail off as soon as September. The prospect of an end to quantitative easing has already pushed up long-term interest rates. The yield on ten-year Treasuries has risen to 2.6% from a low of 1.6% in May. As yields rise, capital is attracted to America from riskier parts of the world. That in turn pushes up the dollar. 最近人们看涨美元的直接原因就是美联储表态,它增发货币来购买债券这一举措或许最快从九月份 开始有所放缓。未来量化宽松政策退出的前景也已经拉高了长期利率。十年期的国债收益已从五月 份 1.6%的低位上升到了 2.6%。既然收益上涨,资金就会从其他风险更高的地区流向美国,这也进一 步推高了美元币值。 3 The deeper cause of the dollar rally is the relative health of America’s economy. Bad mortgage debts have been cleaned out of banks. The housing market is recovering. Jobs are growing steadily. Non-farm employers added 195,000 workers to their payrolls in June, in line with the average increase so far this year. 美元恢复势头更深层次的原因是相对健康的美国经济。银行清除了不良抵押借债;住房市场逐步复 苏;就业率平稳上升;六月份非农就业人数增加了 19.5 万人,保持今年以来的上升势头。 4 GDP growth has been modest even if it is likely to strengthen a bit. In an update to its projections, the IMF this week forecast that the American economy will grow by 2.7% next year. That is hardly a boom. But other big rich economies, such as Japan and Britain, cannot hope to do nearly as well. And the euro zone is still in recession. 尽管经济有走高的迹象,但发展依然平稳适度。这周,国际货币基金组织在对美国 GDP 进行最新预 测, 称明年美国经济将会增长 2.7%。 这样的增长虽然说不上繁荣, 但比起像日本和英国等发达大国, 美国显然更胜一筹;经济低迷的欧盟更是望其项背。 5 As if to underline these divergent fortunes central banks in Europe indicated earlier this month that looser monetary policy may still be required on their patch. Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), said on July 4th that the bank expects to keep its main interest rates “at present or lower levels for an extended period of time”. This was the first time the ECB had given explicit guidance about the future path of interest rates. It came shortly after a statement from the Bank of England’s monetary-policy committee, meeting for the first time under its new governor, Mark Carney, which said the British economy was still too weak to warrant the increases in the bank’s benchmark interest rate implied by recent rises in longer-term bond yields. 欧洲各国央行月初声明要在国内继续放宽货币政策,似乎在强调这两种不同的命运。欧洲央行主席 Mario Draghi 在 7 月 4 日称, 欧洲央行“在未来一段时间内不会上调”主要利率。 这是欧洲央行首次对 未来利率走势作出明确表态。此前不久,英格兰银行的货币政策委员会的新任主席 Mark Carney 首

经济学人中文网 次在主持的会议上发表声明;他指出,最近长期国债收益率上升暗示英格兰银行可能会加息,但其 实英国经济仍较为疲软,无法承受。 6 The Fed’s own forward guidance about the probable “tapering” of its bond purchases is what pushed up these yields in Europe. As the extent to which monetary policy in America and Europe are on different paths becomes clear, the transatlantic gap in market interest rates is likely to widen. The dollar ought to rise further. 美联储减购债券剑拔弩张,欧洲的长期债券收益上涨也归咎于这一指导方针。随着欧美逐渐明晰了 各自不同的货币政策,大西洋两岸的市场利率之间的隔阂很可能会不断扩大。美元也会进一步升值。 Still shallow 升值幅度依然不大 7 But how much further? For now a fitful upwards grind of 5-7% against the other major currencies might well be the limit. America’s economy is doing well enough to give its currency a boost, but it is not yet so strong as to spur the sort of bull run the dollar enjoyed in the late 1990s. Even if the Fed dials back bond purchases soon, it might be years before it raises its benchmark interest rate from near zero. The Fed has said it will stay where it is until unemployment, now 7.6%, has fallen to 6.5%; on July 10th Ben Bernanke, its chairman, said the rate could stick at near zero long after that. And the Fed would itself react to a fast-rising dollar: no rich country is keen to have a strong currency when growth is scarce. That is why the dollar rally will be a shallow one, says Kit Juckes, an analyst at Socié Gé rale. té né 但美元升值幅度究竟会有多大?从现在美元对其他主要货币升值乏力的情况来看,升值 5%到 7%可 能就是极限了。美国的经济繁荣拉动了美元升值的链条,但却还没有强势到将 90 年代末的牛市再次 历史重演。即使美联储随即停购债券,但要想上调它接近于零的基准利率,那可能要花上好几年的 时间。美联储指出,除非失业率从现在的 7.6%降到 6.5%,否则它不会对货币政策做任何转变。7 月 10 日,美联储主席 Ben Bernanke 进一步表态,失业率降至 6.5%时,基准利率可以长期维持在零上 下。同时,美联储本身对美元升值过快也会适当调节,因为发达国家在经济疲软的时候都不希望国 家货币发展得强劲。对此法兴银行的分析师 Kit Juckes 指出,这就说明了未来美元升值幅度不大。 8There may also be a limit to how far the euro can fall. The euro zone’s sovereign-debt crisis has dragged on for more than three years. Yet in all that time the euro could rarely be described as cheap. And even after the monetary-policy steers from the Fed and the ECB, the euro is still a bit above the fair value of $1.26 suggested by the Big Mac index, our rough-and-ready guide to currencies. 与此同时,欧元贬值也有个限度。主权债务危机的噩梦已经缠绕着欧盟三年多了,但总的来看欧元 还说不上便宜。即使是在美联储和欧洲央行采取货币政策进行调控之后,按照《经济学人》的简易 汇率评判标准——巨无霸指数来判断,欧元对美元的合理汇率是 1:1.26,目前的欧元汇率仍略高于 这一水平。 9 One reason for this resilience might be that euros are harder for foreigners to earn than dollars are: the euro zone has a large current-account surplus whereas America has a big deficit. Another is that China’s central bank may have used any temporary weakness in the euro as an opportunity to diversify its huge

经济学人中文网 reserves away from the dollar. Can the euro get below, say, $1.20? “You’ll have to ask the Chinese,” says a US-based hedge-fund manager. 欧元之所以有如此韧劲的一个原因也许是外国人赚欧元比赚美元要难: 欧盟的经常账户有大笔盈余, 而美国只有一片赤字。另一个原因是中国央行每次在欧洲磕磕碰碰的时候,都会趁机排挤美元,吸 纳欧元,以使外汇储备多样化。有人问欧美汇率有可能跌到 1:1.20 吗?一位美国对冲基金的经理回 答,“那你得问问中国人了。” 10 The dollar seems likely to make the biggest gains against emerging-market currencies. A handful of countries, including India and South Africa, which depend on foreign capital to finance their trade deficits have already seen their currencies fall by around 10% since the beginning of May, merely on the prospect that the Fed might take its foot off the monetary-policy pedal (see chart). As long as bond yields were low in America, rich-world investors were happy to buy emerging-market bonds. But such capital will be a lot harder to secure from America as quantitative easing comes to an end. 美元升值如入无人之境,把新兴市场国家的货币撇在身后。包括印度和南非在内的多个国家都是通 过外汇调节国内的贸易逆差,自五月初以来,这些国家的货币贬值幅度已达 10%左右,这就是美联 储即将放宽货币政策的结果(见图表) 。美国债券收益一天不高,发达国家的投资者就只会把购买热 情洒在新兴市场国家的债券上。但随着美国量化宽松政策落下帷幕,这些想要规避美国的外国投资 将会难上加难。 11 Some emerging markets have already reportedly sold a slug of dollars from their foreign-exchange reserves to slow the descent of their currencies. There may be some second-round effects from this as these central banks then replenish their dollar reserves by selling some of their euros. By next summer visitors to America may find the dollar that bit stronger and their wallets emptying that bit faster. 据报道,一些新兴市场国家已经从外汇储备中抛售了小部分美元,为的是减缓货币贬值。当这些央 行又想通过出售部分欧元(资产)回补美元储备时,另一波浪潮或许又会在这个基础上衍生开来。 也许明年夏天这些游客再度来到美国时,他们会发现美元又升值了点,钱包空得又快了点。 http://www.ecocn.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=193654&fromuid=272265 译者:羽言

[2013.07.13] Financial data: Seconds out 金融讯息提前外漏
Financial data 金融讯息

Seconds out 当!时间到!
Is it a crime to give people an early peek at data? 将金融讯息提早透露给他人是否违法?
Jul 13th 2013 | NEW YORK |From the print edition


1 MORE than a half century ago the University of Michigan Institute for Social Research created a well-received monthly index tracking American consumer sentiment. Until 2007 it was funded by more than 100 “supporters” who got an advanced look at the results. No one got overly upset by this. Such sangfroid is emblematic of a different era. 早在大半个世纪以前, 美国密歇根大学社会研究所就曾按月发布“美国消费者信心指数”的跟踪报告, 人们反响不错。直到 2007 年,共有 100 多位“支持者”出钱支持这份报告进行下去,回报即是提前得 知报告结论。没有人因此太过担忧,人们镇定的表象的原因实则是另一时代的特有标志。 2 In 2007 Thomson Reuters agreed to pay in excess of $1m for distribution rights to the University of Michigan index. In 2008 the information provider began sending the results out in three bursts—one a general distribution via press release; another five minutes earlier through all its terminals (which means it was reported by Reuters as well as other subscribers); and another a mere two seconds earlier but plenty long enough to be of use to a small coterie of fee-paying high-speed traders. 2007 年,汤森路透同意花 100 多万美元,用来拿到密歇根大学指数报告的发布权。2008 年,密歇根 大学发布报告结果的方式可以称得上是“广、频、快”:一是通过新闻发布作为一般经销渠道;二是 提前 5 分钟发送给其所有的终端接受者(也就是包括汤森路透在内的其他订购者) ;第三种,仅仅提 前 2 秒发布:别小看这两秒钟,这对一小部分付了钱的快速投资者来说已经不算短了。 。 3 Thomson Reuters suspended this third feed on July 8th in response to demands by Eric Schneiderman, New York’s attorney-general, who is conducting an investigation into the distribution of sensitive financial information. “The securities markets should be a level playing-field for all investors and the early release of market-moving survey data undermines fair play,” he said. 纽约总检察长埃里克施奈德曼一直在调查敏感性金融讯息的发布情况。7 月 8 日,应他的要求,汤 森路透撤去了第三种“小灶”灶台。埃里克说:“证券市场应当为所有投资者提供一个公平公正的“游 戏”场所,提早泄露市场动态的调查讯息明显破坏了游戏的公正性。” 4 Mr Schneiderman’s definition of “fair play” remains unclear. Why draw the line at the feed for high-frequency traders but not the one to paying subscribers, for example? Thomson Reuters says it uses the same multi-tiered distribution strategy in only one other area, the European release of a purchasing managers’ survey in conjunction with Markit, a financial-information firm. But staggered releases are common enough. The Chicago Business Barometer, another purchasing managers’ index, is distributed by Deutsche B? an exchange operator, to paying subscribers three minutes earlier than to the wider world, rse, for example. 埃里克对于“游戏公正性”的定义尚不明确。这样说吧,为什么对提前发布给高频交易者设限却对提 前发布给订购者却未加干涉?另一个且是唯一的运用了相同多层分销战略的地区位于欧洲,即森路 透与金融信息公司麦盖提针对采购经理人调查发布报告协同合作。但是,错时发布是很常见的做法。 比如,德意志交易所散发的另一个采购经理人指数——芝加哥商业景气指数,就为付费订购者提供 先于外部 3 分钟的讯息。


经济学人中文网 5 The involvement of the University of Michigan raises another set of issues: you could argue that information provided by public entities like a state university should be distributed broadly to the public. The university itself contends that the consumer-sentiment survey is just one of many forms of sponsored research that would never be done at all were there not outsiders willing to subsidise it, and that its wide distribution does provide a public benefit. 由于事件涉及密歇根大学,这也引发了另外一组问题:人们认为诸如像公立大学这样的公共实体提 供的讯息应该更广泛的告知给公众。密歇根大学解释说消费者信心调查只不过是众多接受赞助研究 的一项;并且谈到假如没有外部参与订购,这些研究根本完成不了。密歇根大学又声称自己广泛播 撒式的发布讯息也的的确确照顾到了公众利益。 http://www.ecocn.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=193662&fromuid=272265 译者:swxsylar

[2013.07.13] Free exchange: Ad scientists 搜索引擎广告效果研究
Free exchange 自由交流

Ad scientists 搜索引擎广告效果研究
Simple tests can overstate the impact of search-engine advertising 简单的测试可能会高估搜索引擎广告的作用
Jul 13th 2013 |From the print edition

1 SEARCH for a term like “tennis balls” using Google, Bing or Yahoo, and two types of link appear. The majority form a long list of “organic” results. Companies pay the search engines nothing for these. But those at the very top and on the right-hand side of the screen are paid links, a form of advertising that accounts for most of the revenue of search engines. These search ads appear to solve a puzzle that has preoccupied advertisers since John Wanamaker, the 19th-century founding father of marketing, reportedly declared: “Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is I don’t know which half.” But new research shows that the simple measures often used to assess the impact of search ads may be exaggerating their effectiveness. 在谷歌、必应或是雅虎上搜索某个词语(如 “tennis balls”)时,搜索引擎会显示两种类型的网页链 接。主体部分是一个长长的“自然”搜索结果列表,广告客户无需为此付费。而另外一些出现在页面 顶部或右侧的链接则需要付费——这是一种广告形式,是搜索引擎的主要收入来源。 据传十九世纪 “营销之父”约翰?沃纳梅克曾说过: “我花在广告上的钱有一半是被浪费掉的, 麻烦的是我不知道是哪 一半。 ”搜索引擎广告似乎解决了这个自沃纳梅克以来一直困扰着广告主的问题。 但是新的研究表明, 评估搜索广告作用常用的简单方法可能夸大了这种广告的效果。 2 Establishing cause and effect in offline advertising is hard. Ads are difficult to target: space on billboards and in newspapers is seen by lots of shoppers. Some of these eyeballs are worth spending money on; others, either because they belong to existing customers or to people who never will be, are not. And

经济学人中文网 even when big ad campaigns are followed by strong sales, the intuitive conclusion—that rising sales are the result of good ads—can be misleading. Advertising budgets often rise in good times so that spending and sales grow together, even if the advertisements are useless. The ads and the sales have a common cause—strong demand—but may have no causal link. 对线下广告的影响效果进行分析可不容易。广告很难锁定目标:许多购物者都会看到公告牌或者报 纸上的广告。其中的部分读者确实值得花钱投广告,另外一部分则不然——因为他们可能已经是现 有的顾客,或者永远也不会来光顾。就算在一轮大的广告攻势之后出现了销售高潮,让人觉得是广 告带动了销售增长,但这仍然可能是一种错觉。旺季时广告预算通常会增加,即使广告没起到任何 作用,销售额仍会和广告支出同步增长。强劲的需求是广告增加和销量增长的共同推手,但广告和 销量之间不一定有因果关系。 3 Internet advertising seems to offer a solution to both these problems. First, internet search ads are targeted: the links that search engines show are based on a combination of the search term a user has typed in and his browsing history. Second, because firms can track whether visitors to their websites come from search-engine links they have paid for, they can work out whether ads convert into sales. 互联网广告似乎为这些问题提供了解决方案。首先互联网搜索广告能够锁定目标:搜索引擎是在用 户搜索某个关键字时,结合他的浏览历史来决定应该显示什么广告的。另外广告客户能分析出其网 站的访客是不是从搜索引擎上的付费广告链接跳转而来,从而能够知道广告是否带来了销售。 4 Not so fast. Spurious correlations are also rife in the online world, as a 2011 paper* by Randall Lewis, Justin Rao and David Reiley, a trio of economists then working for Yahoo, shows. Individuals use the web in a lumpy way. On some days lots of sites are visited and many purchases made; on others usage is lighter. This makes comparisons across time unhelpful. On a high-activity day people will tend to perform a lot of searches (and see lots of ads) as well as make many purchases. The relationship between the ads and the purchases looks causal, but may not be. 但是且慢,虚假关联在网络世界中也普遍存在。2011 年时为雅虎工作的三位经济学家,兰达尔?刘易 斯、贾斯廷?劳以及戴维?赖利在一篇论文*中阐述了这个问题。人们的网上活动规律性不强。有时一 天会访问许多网站、买很多东西,有时就不怎么上网。所以不同时间的对比无效。活跃的时候人们 一天里会进行大量搜索(看很多广告)并买许多东西。广告和购买行为之间看起来似乎有因果关系, 但实情也许并非如此。 5 To test this problem of “activity bias”, the authors recruited volunteers online and split them into two groups. The first group watched a video promoting Yahoo, and the other group watched a political broadcast. The first group used Yahoo around three times more after seeing the ad, giving the impression it was very influential. But the control group—those subjected to a bout of politics but no Yahoo promotion—also used Yahoo a lot more. Both groups happened to be in an active period of internet use. This is why they were recruited in the first place and why they used Yahoo more than in previous periods. Lumpy internet use created a false sense of advertising impact. 为了检验“活跃性偏差”,上述论文作者在网上招募了志愿者,并把他们分成两组。第一组志愿者观 看雅虎的宣传视频,第二组则观看一个政治宣传片。第一组志愿者看完广告之后使用雅虎的次数与

经济学人中文网 之前相比增加了三次,给人以“广告很有效果”的印象。然而看了一通政治宣传片的对照组志愿者使 用雅虎的次数同样增加了。这两组志愿者刚好都处在使用互联网的活跃期。这是他们之前被招募成 为志愿者原因,也是他们与事前相比会更频繁地使用雅虎的原因。互联网使用情况的变化会让人错 误地评估广告的影响。 6 The problem of activity bias means that in order to assess the effect of search ads, a proper control group is needed. A 2013 study by Chris Nosko of Chicago University and Steven Tadelis of the University of California, Berkeley, shows how such a test can be designed. Together with Thomas Blake of eBay they examined how important it was for the auction site to buy ads that appear when the term “eBay” is used in a search (“eBay tennis socks”, for example). In March 2012 they switched off eBay’s brand advertisements on Yahoo and Bing, but kept paying for them on Google as a control. 活跃性偏差现象的存在意味着要正确评估搜索广告的效果,需要有一个合适的对照组。2013 年芝加 哥大学的克里斯?诺斯科和加利福尼亚大学伯克利分校的史蒂夫?塔德利斯完成的一项研究介绍了一 种对此类问题进行分析的方法。 购买带有“eBay”关键字的搜索广告 (如当用户搜索“eBay tennis socks” 时显示广告) eBay 这样的拍卖网站来说有多大的必要?上述研究人员和 eBay 的汤姆斯?布雷克一 对 起进行了研究。2012 年 3 月他们停止了 eBay 在雅虎和必应上的品牌广告,但保留谷歌上的广告以 作为参照。 7 The finding was striking. When the sponsored ad was turned off, search-engine users simply switched to the first “organic” link that mentioned eBay. Overall, the site retained 99.5% of its traffic. Users who type in a brand-specific search are already trying to navigate to eBay’s site. Even if they appear lower down, free search results work just as well as ones that are paid for. 研究的发现相当惊人。广告停止期间,搜索引擎用户会转而直接点击第一个提到 eBay 的“自然”搜索 结果链接。总的来说,eBay 保住了 99.5%的流量。用户在输入含有“eBay”的搜索关键字的时候,其 实已经打定主意要浏览 eBay 了。即使相关的链接显示在页面的底端,免费的搜索结果也能发挥出与 付费广告链接同样的效果。 Calling Mr Draper 呼叫德雷柏先生① 8 Firms like eBay don’t just pay for adverts when their brand is mentioned, of course. They place ads in response to millions of other words that indicate the presence of a potential customer. So a second test also investigated ads associated with non-branded keywords (“tennis socks”, for instance). The researchers tracked spending on ads and the number of “attributed sales” (sales made within 24 hours of clicking on a paid Google link) over time. A simple correlation analysis showed a familiar result: ads and sales tend to rise and fall together. A 10% increase in spending seems to raise revenues by 9%. The ads appear to work. 当然像 eBay 这样的公司不会只购买包含品牌名称的搜索广告。 他们还会针对上百万的其它搜索词汇 做广告,只要有找到潜在的客户的可能。所以研究者进行了第二项测试,深入研究不包含品牌名称 关键字的搜索广告(如针对“tennis socks”的搜索广告) 。研究者跟踪和分析了广告支出和“广告所带 来的销售量”(点击付费谷歌广告链接 24 小时之内实现的销量)之间的关系。一项简单的相关性分 析得出了大家都熟悉的结果:广告数量和销售量同步上升或下降。增加 10%的广告费似乎能让销售

经济学人中文网 收入增加 9%。广告看起来是起作用的。 9 To check these results the authors split America into 210 geographical segments. A third were picked at random, with all Google advertising switched off. Of the rest, the researchers selected regions where patterns of internet activity closely resembled those where the ads were turned off. This allowed them to isolate sales variations that were caused by ads, rather than lumpy activity. The isolated impact is far smaller: a 10% increase in ad spending raises revenues by just 0.5%. (Results for users who had never previously used eBay were stronger, however, suggesting that firms with lesser-known brands may gain more from ads.) 为了检验分析结果,研究者把美国划分成了 210 个地理区域。他们随机选择其中三分之一的区域停 掉了谷歌广告,并从剩下的区域中选择出互联网活跃性接近的作为参照组。通过这种方式,研究者 能够把广告的影响和互联网访问活跃程度变化的影响区分开来。使用这种分离变量的方法计算出来 的广告影响比原来估算的要小得多:广告支出增加 10%只能使销售收入提升 0.5%(但对于从来没有 用过 eBay 的用户来说,广告的影响较强,说明知名度较低的品牌能够利用广告获益更多) 。 10 Bosses should still take Wanamaker’s fear seriously: a rise in sales after an ad campaign does not automatically mean that the ads worked. But it also shows how the online world is getting closer to solving the conundrum he posed. Far from being an industry where cause and effect remain murky, online advertising may yet become one area where the dismal science can predict how to get costs down and profits up. 所以老板们还得认真考虑“沃纳梅克之忧”:广告攻势之后的销售增长并不一定是广告在发挥作用。 当然相关研究也表明,在网上这个问题正逐步得到解决。在线广告将不会再是一个投入和产出关系 不明的行业,在这里枯燥乏味的科学将能够为您指出降低成本、提高利润的方法。
Sources "Industry and Trade: A Study of Industrial Technique and Business Organization; and of Their Influences on the Conditions of Various Classes and Nations", A. Marshall, MacMillan and Co, 1919 “Here, there, and everywhere: correlated online behaviors can lead to overestimates of the effects of advertising”, by R.A. Lewis, J.M. Rao and D.H. Reiley, Proceedings of the 20th international conference on World wide web, 2011 “Consumer Heterogeneity and Paid Search Effectiveness: A Large Scale Field Experiment”, by Thomas Blake, Chris Nosko and Steven Tadelis, NBER, 2013

http://www.ecocn.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=193727&fromuid=272265 译者:discomize

[2013.07.13] The economy: The haves and the have-nots 富国穷国
The economy

The haves and the have-nots
But even rich Arab countries cannot squander their resources indefinitely


Jul 13th 2013 |From the print edition

1 THE SWEET PERFUME wafting over northern Iraq does not come from the wildflowers that speckle its rumpled plains in spring. It is the smell of oil and it is everywhere, flaring at wellheads, sloshing from the tanker trucks that grind up potholed roads to backyard refineries in the Kurdish hills and fuming from their chimneys. Nor is this the oiliest part of Iraq. That lies in the deserts to the south where it literally seeps from the ground. In fact the whole of Iraq sits atop seams and pockets of the sticky stuff. There is plenty to go around, if only the Iraqis could agree to stop shooting each other. 2 There is plenty for other Arabs, too. Taken together, their 19 countries hold some 46% of the world’s total proven oil reserves (as well as a quarter of its natural-gas reserves). The ones with the most have it doubly easy. Saudis or Kuwaitis spend just $3 to tap a barrel from their most accessible wells. Small wonder that their oilmen scoff at looming competition from America’s fancy frackers and shalers. The technical wizardry of the modern drilling techniques that may soon make America self-sufficient in energy can push the cost of extracting a barrel well beyond $100. 3 The Arab world’s hydrocarbon riches are unevenly shared. Saudi Arabia alone holds the bulk of all reserves. Just eight Arab countries have actually grown rich from energy exports, though some of them spectacularly so: in the tiny emirate of Qatar some 14% of households are dollar millionaires, a higher proportion than in any other country. Divided among its 250,000 citizens (the other 85% of Qatar’s population of 2.1m are foreign workers), the tiny emirate’s GDP comes to $700,000 per person. Average incomes across the Arab Gulf states are around 50 times those in Yemen, Sudan and Mauritania. 4 This may change. Poorer Arab states are not about to become new Qatars, but many, such as Yemen, Tunisia, Sudan and Egypt, already export oil or gas, and the lingering energy paupers are doing better too. Morocco, until now completely reliant on imports, pins high hopes on offshore exploration that is just getting under way. Its Atlantic shelf shares the same promising geology that oil companies in Mauritania are already exploiting. Much of this potential lode skirts the long coast of the Western Sahara, where sovereignty remains contested despite four decades of de facto Moroccan control. But there may be plenty in undisputed waters, too. A wobbly balance 5 Huge gasfields in the eastern Mediterranean also sprawl across maritime borders. Egypt has been tapping its patch for years, with Israel following more recently. Lebanon has untangled itself from internal bickering. Some day Gaza should have a share of the crowded territory’s only resource aside from people. Perhaps in the future the other part of Palestine, the West Bank, will also profit from the small deposits of crude oil that Israeli firms have found under its hills. Even Jordan may at last be able to stop begging its neighbours for fuel. If oil prices hold steady above the $100 mark around which they have fluctuated in recent years, the shale oil that sits under 60% of Jordan’s surface will become commercially viable. 6 That is a big if. In 1999 this newspaper speculated that oil prices might collapse to $5 a barrel. Instead they soared, peaking in 2008 at $145. The world’s current mix of political instability in oil-producing zones and surging demand from Asia leads some to think that despite expanding oil production worldwide, a

经济学人中文网 wobbly balance between supply and demand might be maintained. But experience suggests that high prices sustained over long periods encourage massive investment in exploration and improved yields from existing infrastructure. 7 That is what happened in the 1970s, when high prices spurred energy conservation and made it cost-effective to produce in places like Alaska and the North Sea. The resulting oil-price collapse in the 1980s lasted a long time, despite rising Asian demand and supply shocks such as the eight-year war between two of the biggest exporters, Iran and Iraq. Arab producers were badly hit. GDP per person in Saudi Arabia and Libya shrank by a third and took 20 years to regain its 1981 level. 8 A similar price fall today might not seem as threatening to the bigger Arab producers. Over the past decade they have racked up surpluses approaching the size of the combined GDP of all 19 Arab states, $2.9 trillion. About half of that is sitting in sovereign-wealth funds or foreign-currency reserves. But many governments, wary of unrest, have also raised state spending to potentially unsustainable levels. The so-called fiscal break-even point (the oil price needed to balance exporters’ budgets) is currently over $80 for Saudi Arabia and $110 for Algeria, which relies on energy exports for 70% of its government revenue. 9 Both governments could simply cut spending, though that involves political risks. They could also try something else: raise local energy prices. Throughout the region, the combination of big resources and patriarchal politics has made a hash of economics. The Arab hydrocarbons industry as a whole generates about $750 billion a year, but nearly a third of that, $240 billion by the IMF’s estimate, is frittered away on energy subsidies for Arab consumers. 10 In Saudi Arabia, for instance, petrol costs under $0.20 a litre. Local consumption already eats up a quarter of Saudi oil output, and on current trends could devour all of it within 25 years. Domestic oil consumption across the Arab world last year rose by 5.2%, the highest rate in any region. In the Gulf states it has been growing at an annual 6% since 1980. 11 Rich countries can afford this, though not indefinitely. For poor countries the subsidies have become ruinous. Yemen’s government, for instance, spends the equivalent of 6% of its GDP on keeping fuel prices low, more than on health and education combined. Most of this goes on diesel, which feeds the water pumps that irrigate the country’s most important crop, qat, a pleasantly narcotic shrub that keeps millions quiet. 12 The cost to Egypt is just as heavy. The government’s subsidy bill is $18 billion, again far higher than its spending on public schools and hospitals, and almost precisely matches its 11% budget deficit. That might have been fudged in the past, since most fuels were produced by state-owned firms and the cost of subsidies was implicit rather than paid in cash. But with local consumption growing rapidly, Egypt has lately become a net importer. Its central-bank reserves have dropped from $36 billion to $16 billion since the revolution in February 2011. 13 The IMF reckons that in two out of three Arab countries energy subsidies account for more than 5% of GDP, whereas food subsidies in the region average only 0.7%. It is true that in places like Egypt cheap transport has encouraged mobility and cheap power has favoured investment in energy-intensive industries

经济学人中文网 such as fertilisers and cement. But the benefits tend to be skewed to the owners of factories and gas-guzzlers. The IMF estimates that 50% of the energy subsidies go to the wealthiest fifth of the population in Sudan and only 3% to the poorest fifth. 14 Rolling back the subsidies is a tricky business, but it can and must be done. Some countries, such as Jordan and Yemen, have already taken painful measures and so far survived the consequences. Libya, too, has been surprisingly bold for a country where petrol has been cheaper than water for a generation. Its current budget provides for sharply higher petrol and electricity prices and a shift in the subsidies to monthly cash transfers of about $500 per citizen. “It sounds like a lot, but this will actually save the government a ton of money,” says Faisal Gergab, chief economist at the Libyan Investment Authority. 15 For two years the IMF has been dangling a $4.8 billion loan package in front of Egypt. This could unlock billions more in multilateral and bilateral aid, but it is conditional on budget reform, which in turn depends on fixing the worsening energy muddle. Egypt’s next government will have to knuckle under, no matter how unpopular that may make it. And so, eventually, will countries such as Saudi Arabia. “Now is the time to reform,” says Joe Saddi, the chairman of Booz & Co, an American consultancy with a strong base in the region. “They have the money and they have the time.” Among friends 16 Mr Saddi has another suggestion: that Arabs should integrate their economies. This is not a new idea. Before the first world war, Mr Saddi notes, people and goods moved freely across Arab borders. The Arab League was founded in 1945 to strengthen regional ties. In the 1960s and 1970s many joint institutions were launched to exchange aid, expertise and investment among Arab states. 17 Those hopeful times saw a first big wave of migration to the Gulf. In those early years of the oil boom, its bounty was seen as best shared among brothers. Fellow Arabs received the bulk of Arab development aid and made up some 72% of the Gulf’s expatriate labour force. Libya, Iraq and Algeria were also important destinations for migrant workers. 18 These days fellow Arabs account for barely a quarter of the Gulf’s expat workforce, and not just because Asian workers will accept lower pay. For political reasons, Gulf monarchies have expelled large numbers of other Arabs from time to time, such as Palestinians from Kuwait and nearly a million Yemenis from Saudi Arabia in the 1990s. New campaigns today, under the guise of rationalising labour markets or prosecuting people who have outstayed their visas, are targeting Shia Lebanese in Kuwait to punish Hizbullah and suspected Islamists in the United Arab Emirates. As many as 300,000 Yemenis in Saudi Arabia also risk expulsion as part of a plan to open more jobs to Saudi citizens. 19 Arab borders remain more jealously guarded than those in most other parts of the world. True, countries such as Egypt, Iraq and, more grudgingly, Jordan and Lebanon have generously opened their doors to hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees. Most Arab countries still insist on visas for those from elsewhere in the region, although some restrictions have been eased. Open wider


20 Some irksome barriers remain. Unbelievably, the 1,000-mile-long frontier between Morocco and Algeria, countries that have similar populations and living standards and are culturally, linguistically and historically close, has been sealed for the past 19 years. Few people in either country even remember why their governments shut it (Morocco accused Algeria of involvement in a hotel bombing in Marrakech that killed two tourists). Opening it up would let poor border towns revert from their current concentration on smuggling to more legitimate trade. More important, access to Algeria’s cash-rich but goods-poor market could quickly add $2 billion a year to Morocco’s more dynamic private-sector economy, economists say. 21 Given the vast disparities in wealth, opening all Arab borders is not a realistic option. But there are certainly benefits flowing among Arab nations. Remittances from the Gulf to other Arab countries are currently worth about $35 billion a year, supporting whole villages in places such as Upper Egypt and Sudan. In 2009 remittances made up 16% of Jordan’s GDP. According to the World Bank, the Gulf states have been the world’s most generous donors of aid as a share of GDP. Most of this has gone to fellow Arab states, often at crucial times such as after Israel’s devastation of Gaza in 2009. 22 In the peak year to date, 2008, direct investment from the Gulf states in the rest of the region amounted to $35 billion. Firms such as Qatari Diyar, the UAE’s Emaar and Kuwait’s Kharafi Group have launched giant property developments in many Arab capitals as well as in tourist destinations along the Red and Mediterranean seas. Private Gulf investors are also putting a lot of money into stock exchanges in cities such as Casablanca, Cairo and Amman. 23 There could be much more of this. “It’s a perfect match,” says McKinsey’s Kito de Boer. “The Gulf has about $1 trillion to spend, and that’s about what is needed in regional investment.” The trouble lies with the investment climate in receiving countries. And that is a matter of politics more than economics.

阿拉伯国家的资源再多,也不能挥霍无度 伊拉克北部的空气中常常弥漫着甜甜的芳香,你的脑中是不是已经浮现出了一幅野花点点、绿 草茫茫的平原春色图呢?然而这种气味却是由遍及这里每一寸土地的石油而散发开来的——随处可 见的开采井口冒着熊熊烈火,油罐车轧着崎岖的路面留下了一路的油渍,而它的目的地便是库尔德 山间烟囱耸立的炼油厂。 其实伊拉克最为盛产石油的地方还不是这里, 而是位于通往南部的沙漠—— 那里的石油简直是从地面直接渗出来的。假如这个国家族群之间的暴力争斗能够停止的话,那生活 在液体黄金之上的全体伊拉克人民一定会过着安居乐业的生活。 其实,伊拉克富饶的燃料资源只是整个阿拉伯世界一个缩影。数据显示,全球 46%的石油探明 储量(以及 1/4 的天然气储量)都位于 19 个阿拉伯国家的地下,其中储量最多的那些国家更是轻而 易举地就能获取石油资源。沙特和科威特最易开采石油的地方,其最低成本只需每桶 3 美元,这也 就是为什么美国高端的水力压裂页岩油气技术人员带来了日趋激烈的竞争,而当地石油开采工人却 还不以为然的原因。这种在美国人眼中的现代钻井技术可能在不久的将来,奇迹般地使美国成为一 个能源自给的国家——但是采用这一技术的开采成本却远远高于每桶 100 美元。不过尽管阿拉伯地 区富含烃类物质,然而分布并不均匀——沙特阿拉伯一国就占据了巨额储量。事实上,阿拉伯国家

经济学人中文网 中只有 8 个通过能源出口成功致富,不过其中仍有几国十分惹眼。酋长国卡塔尔国土面积很小,却 有约 14%的家庭资产超过百万美元,这一比例可谓世界之最。如果把该国的国内生产总值平分到 25 万本国国民手中,那每个人可以拿到 70 万美元(卡塔尔 210 万总人口中有 85%是外国工人) 。阿拉 伯海湾国家的平均收入几乎是也门、苏丹和毛里塔尼亚的 50 倍。但这一差距可能并不会永久地持续 下去。一些较为贫穷的阿拉伯国家虽然并不太可能成为第二、第三个卡塔尔,但其中许多国家(如 也门、突尼斯、苏丹和埃及)也已经开始出口石油天然气,而迟迟没有动作的那些富含能源的穷国 也开始有所行动了。摩洛哥直到现在为止仍然完全依赖于能源进口,但她目前正在进行海上能源勘 探,并对该项工程抱有很大的希望。毛里塔尼亚的石油公司已经开始在其大陆架上开采能源,而摩 洛哥伸向大西洋的大陆架也具有与毛里塔尼亚相似的地质条件。许多这些潜藏的矿脉都是沿着西撒 哈拉长长的海岸线分布的。西撒哈拉的主权目前仍然存在争议,而摩洛哥在 40 年间实际控制了这一 地区。不过在没有争议的水域同样也存在着丰富的潜藏矿脉。地中海东部水域的大型天然气田也是 蜿蜒曲折,跨过了多国的海上国界。多年以来,埃及一直在这一水域钻井采气,而最近以色列也开 始不甘落后、迎头赶上。黎巴嫩已经结束了国家内部喋喋不休的争论。有朝一日,加沙也应该会在 人头济济的国土范围内分得一杯羹(当地除了人以外也就剩下燃料能源了) 。在巴勒斯坦的另一地区 西岸,已经有以色列公司在其山地地下发现了少量原油储量,西岸可能未来也会从中受益。 弱势平衡 甚至约旦最终也可能不必再依赖于邻国的燃料供给。石油价格最近几年一直徘徊在 100 美元附 近,如果能长期稳定在 100 美元水平之上的话,约旦 60%国土之下蕴藏的页岩油资源将会凸显出其 商业价值——不过这个“如果”非常重要。 本报曾于 1999 年作出预测, 油价可能会暴跌至每桶 5 美元。 随后油价却是一路飙升,于 2008 年达到最高的每桶 145 美元。如今,产油地区政治局势动荡,亚洲 地区需求急剧增长。据此,有些人认为尽管全球石油产量正在扩张,但目前供需之间的弱势平衡可 能很难打破。然而经验表明,长期的价格高企会刺激石油勘探的大量投资,并提升现有设施的采油 能力。20 世纪 70 年代便是如此。在当时高油价的影响下,人们纷纷进行能源囤积,而阿拉斯加和 北海的石油生产也变得有利可图起来。然而结果却是之后 80 年代的油价崩盘。尽管当时亚洲需求也 在上升、 供应也存在冲击 (如两大石油出口大国之间历经八年的“两伊战争”) 但油价仍然持续下跌, , 阿拉伯石油生产商受到了重创。沙特阿拉伯和利比亚的人均 GDP 锐减了 1/3,直到 20 年之后才重新 回到了 1981 年的水平。不过到了今天,即使油价走势重蹈覆辙,阿拉伯大型石油生产企业也已是今 非昔比了。在过去的十年间,这些大型企业所积累的净利润已经达到了 19 个阿拉伯国家的 GDP 总 和(2.9 万亿美元) 。其中约有一半躺在了主权财富基金和外汇储备之中。但是许多国家政府为了维 稳所加大的国家支出,仍已到达了可能难以为继的程度。对于沙特阿拉伯而言,目前所谓的保持财 政平衡的油价水平(石油出口国为平衡预算而必要的石油价格)已经超过了每桶 80 美元,而阿尔及 利亚已经到了 110 美元。其中阿尔及利亚的政府收入,有 70%依赖于能源出口。这两国政府固然都 可以采取削减支出的简单方法,但这却隐含着政治风险。其实,政府还可以尝试提高当地能源价格 等措施。 在整个阿拉伯地区,强大的资源政治和家族政治互相盘根错节,吞噬了大量经济发展潜能。阿 拉伯的石油工业每年总共可以贡献 7500 亿美元的产能。 然而据 IMF 的估计, 其中有 2400 亿美元 (约 占 1/3)浪费在了国内消费者的能源补贴上。沙特阿拉伯每升汽油价格还不到 0.20 美元,国内能源 消费量已经占到了全国石油总产量的 1/4,如果按现在的趋势发展下去的话 25 年内沙特阿拉伯就别 想出口石油了。去年整个阿拉伯地区的国内石油消费总量上升了 5.2%,这一增速是世界任何其他地 区无法比及的。从 1980 年持续至今,海湾地区国家的石油消费量甚至保持了年均 6%的增速。对于 富国而言,目前应该还能应付——但也不是能够永远这样下去。但对于穷国而言,如此的能源补贴

经济学人中文网 已经显现出了毁灭性的恶果。就拿也门来说,该国政府为了让燃料价格维持低位,要花费相当于也 门 GDP6%的财力,比该国在卫生、教育上的支出总和还要多。这些补贴大多是针对柴油的补助,因 为用来灌溉也门最为重要的农作物卡特的水泵需要使用柴油作为燃料(卡特是一种可以令人产生欣 快感的灌木,也是一种使几百万人安定的镇静剂) 。埃及在能源补贴上的财政压力也很大,政府在这 方面的支出达到了 180 亿美元(与也门一样也大大高于在公立学校和医院上的支出) ,几乎完全构成 了该国 11%的预算赤字率。这在过去可能还可以搪塞过去,因为埃及以前多数能源是由国有企业供 应的,能源补贴并非通过现金而是以隐性的方式进行操作。但是随着国内能源消费的快速上升,埃 及最近已经成为了一个净进口国。央行的外汇储备从 2011 年 2 月启动改革时的 360 亿美元,已经降 至 160 亿美元。据 IMF 测算,有 2/3 的阿拉伯国家,能源补贴与 GDP 的比例超过了 5%,而这些国 家粮食补贴与 GDP 的比例平均只有 0.7%。当然也不可否认,在埃及这些国家,廉价的交通费用鼓 励了人们出行的需求,便宜的电力价格也吸引了高耗能行业(如化肥、水泥)的投资。但是这却带 来了公平问题,既得利益的通常都是工厂的厂主和使用汽油的大户。IMF 估计,苏丹能源补贴中的 50%流向了最富的 1/5 人口,而最穷 1/5 的却只拿到了 3%。 减少补贴一定会遇到阻力,但政府有能力也必须这么去做。约旦、也门等国已经采取了艰难的 改革举措,并且到目前为止克服了种种不适。利比亚在上一代领导人的统治下,汽油价格比水还要 便宜,最近则展现出了异常的胆魄。利比亚目前的预算将会使汽油和电力价格出现大幅上涨,而将 能源补贴中的一部分转作了每月向民众发放约为 500 美元的补助。利比亚投资管理局(Libyan Investment Authority)的首席经济学家萨菲尔?哥克布(Faisal Gergab)说:“这听起来好像很多,但 却可以真的大大减轻政府的财政负担。 ”IMF 两年以来一直试图以提供 48 亿美元的一揽子贷款计划, 换取埃及推进该国的预算改革,并进一步打破埃及每况愈下的能源僵局。该计划可能还会为埃及带 来双边和多边框架下的数十亿美元资金——只是埃及民众并不欢迎此项计划。不过即使如此,埃及 的下届政府也将不得不接受这项计划。并且最终沙特阿拉伯等国也必将步此后尘。美国咨询公司波 兹安(Booz & Co)在阿拉伯地区有着深厚的基础,该公司主席乔?瑟迪(Joe Saddi)表示:“改革时 机已到,他们不缺钱也还不缺时间。” 大团结 瑟迪还给出了另外一个建议,就是阿拉伯国家应该寻求(或者说是恢复)经济一体化。瑟迪指 出,在一战以前阿拉伯各国之间人口和货物都可以自由流动。成立于 1945 年的阿拉伯联盟(Arab League)就是为了加强地区联系而建立的。到了二十世纪六七十年代,又成立了许多旨在相互援助、 技术交流、跨境投资的联合机构。在那个充满希望的年代,卷起了第一股移民海湾地区的热旋风。 当时还是石油价格刚刚启动的阶段,石油所带来的物质丰裕就有如兄弟之间互相分享、相互扶持。 海湾地区 72%的外来劳动力是阿拉伯兄弟,还有众多阿拉伯人移民前往利比亚、伊拉克、阿尔及利 亚工作。当时阿拉伯世界之间的兄弟之情可堪国家友谊的典范。 可是如今, 海湾地区外来职工中只有 1/4 来自阿拉伯。 当然这其中也有亚洲廉价劳动力的影响, 但绝不仅于此。海湾地区的君主制国家长久以来驱离了大量非本国的阿拉伯人——在 20 世纪 90 年 代,大量巴勒斯坦人遭到了科威特的驱逐,而沙特阿拉伯也驱逐了近 100 万的也门人。类似的事情 仍在继续,只不过披上了清理劳动力市场、起诉非法逗留者的外衣。为了惩罚真主党人,科威特盯 上了什叶派的黎巴嫩人;阿拉伯联合酋长国则瞄上了涉嫌违法的伊斯兰教徒。沙特阿拉伯计划为国 内民众创造更多的就业机会,作为计划的一部分,沙特 30 万也门人可能会受到驱离。尽管埃及、伊 拉克、约旦和黎巴嫩(后两国态度较为暧昧)向几十万的叙利亚难民敞开了国门,但和世界其他各 国相比,阿拉伯国家的边界守卫一直更为警惕。要越过阿拉伯国家之间的国境,大多仍然必须持有

经济学人中文网 护照(不过也有部分限制已经解除) 。甚至还有实行可怕的相互闭关政策的国家。很难想象,具有相 似的人口和生活标准,并且在文化、语言、历史上都很接近的摩洛哥和阿尔及利亚,在过去长达 19 年的时间里,两国 1000 英里的边界线一直处于完全封闭的状态。 大开国门 两国人民已经几乎没人能够记得两国政府闭关的原因了。 当时其实是源于一起发生在马拉喀什 (Marrakech)的旅馆爆炸案,事件导致了两名游客死亡,而摩洛哥政府指控阿尔及利亚政府涉及此 案。开放两国边界线,那么附近贫困小镇的人们就不必再像现在这样惴惴不安地走私货物,而可以 进行合法贸易了。更为重要的是,阿尔及利亚资金充裕但商品短缺,经济学家表示,摩洛哥的私人 部门在与阿尔及利亚的贸易中,可以产生每年 20 亿美元的贸易额,从而使其自身更具活力。考虑到 各国经济上的巨大差距,要开放所有阿拉伯国家的边境显然并不现实。但是促进各国之间的贸易往 来肯定会带来收益。现在,从海湾地区汇往其他阿拉伯国家的款项每年约为 350 亿美元,这个资金 量足以满足埃及南部地区或是苏丹全境所有村子的总体需要。2009 年汇款占到了约旦 GDP 的 16%。 根据世界银行 (World Bank) 透露, 海湾地区国家对外援助捐赠的金额与 GDP 的比重是全球最高的, 而这些援助和捐赠大多流向了阿拉伯兄弟国家——经常就是在他们需要帮助的紧急关头 (如 2009 年 以色列对加沙地区的侵袭之后) 。海湾地区国家对于其他阿拉伯国家的直接投资总额,在 2008 年达 到了创记录的 350 亿美元。 一些公司如卡塔尔的迪亚尔 (Diyar)阿拉伯联合酋长国的艾马尔 、 (Emaar) 、 科威特的卡菲拉集团(Kharafi Group) ,在许多阿拉伯国家首都以及位于红海、地中海沿岸的旅游胜 地开发了大型的房地产项目。海湾地区的私人投资者同样投入大量资金,进入卡萨布兰卡 (Casablanca) 、开罗(Cairo) 、安曼(Amman)等地的证券市场。类似的例子不胜枚举。麦肯锡 (McKinsey)的基托?德?博尔(Kito de Boer)说道:“海湾地区现在有 1 万亿美元不知道怎么花,阿 拉伯地区缺的就是这笔投资。这就是天生一对、地造一双的命中鸳鸯。”现在阻碍这对鸳鸯结伴而飞 的,正是投资接纳国的政策环境,而这已不仅是经济问题,更是涉及到政治层面的议题了。 http://www.ecocn.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=193837&fromuid=272265 译者:gangangwen

[2013.07.20] Glad to be grey 长白头发是好事情?
Labour markets 劳务市场

Glad to be grey 长白头发是好事情?
Older workers have fared unusually well since the financial crisis 自从 2008 年金融危机以来,年纪大的工人得到的待遇异乎寻常的优厚
Jul 20th 2013 |From the print edition

1 THE recession of 2008-09 was remarkable in rich countries for its intensity, the subsequent recovery for its weakness. The labour market has also broken the rules, as new research from the OECD, a think-tank of mainly rich countries, shows in its annual Employment Outlook.


经济学人中文网 对于世界上的富国而言,2008 年至 2009 年的经济衰退影响巨大。同时引起人们注意的是,危机过 后这些国家的复苏之路疲态尽显。而 OECD(经济合作与发展组织,这一智库主要是为发达国家的) 年度《就业展望》 (Employment Outlook)中的最新研究表明,劳动力市场也出现了反常的变化。 2 Young people always suffer in recessions. Employers stop hiring them; and they often get rid of new recruits because they are easier to sack. But in previous episodes, such as the recessions of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, older workers were also booted out. This time is different. During the financial crisis in 2008, and since, they have done better than other age groups. 一旦经济衰退来袭,身处困境的总会有年轻人的身影。雇主不再继续雇佣他们。因为年轻人解雇起 来比较方便,所以老板经常会先炒掉他们。不过即使如此,上世纪 70-90 年代发生的历次衰退中, 年长的职员一般也很难独善其身。然而这次情形有所不同。自从 2008 年金融危机以来,年长雇员相 比其他年龄段的员工,受到的冲击则较为有限。 3 The researchers focus on movements in “non-employment” as a share of the total population in three age groups between the final quarters of 2007 and 2012. This measure has the advantage of including not just unemployment, where people are looking for work, but also inactivity, where people are not seeking jobs. Whereas the average non-employment rate in the OECD has risen by four percentage points among young people and by one-and-a-half points among 25- to 54-year-olds, it has fallen by two points among the 55-64 age group (see chart). 研究人员将总人口划分了三个年龄组, 分别比较观察了 07 年四季度至 12 年四季度, 每组“无业人口” 与各自人口总数的比例变化。研究“无业人口”的方法优势在于其研究对象不仅包括失业人员,还包 括没有择业行为的人。区别就在于前者正在找工作,后者没有在找工作。OECD 数据显示,虽然青 年平均无业人口比例上涨 4 个百分点,25-54 岁人员上涨 1.5 个百分点,但是 55-64 年龄段却下降 2 个百分点(见图表) 。 4 Why have older employees done so well? In some southern European countries they benefit from job protection not afforded to younger workers, but that did not really help them in past recessions. What has changed, says Stefano Scarpetta, head of the OECD’s employment directorate, is that firms now bear the full costs of getting rid of older staff. In the past early-retirement schemes provided by governments (in the mistaken belief that these would help young people) made it cheaper to push grey-haired workers out of the door. These have largely stopped. 年龄较大的工人表现优良的原因在何处?在南欧的一些国家,年纪大的工人享有工作保障的福利, 而年龄偏低工人则不包含在内。不过在前几次金融危机期间,工作保障也没有起多大的作用。斯特 凡诺?斯卡尔佩塔——OECD 就业事务总干事,他认为造成前后迥异的原因在于如今的用人单位如果 要辞退年龄大的员工,需要承担全部的费用。过去政府制定的提前退休计划中,把“送花白头发工人 出门”的成本的门槛定的很低。政府当时错误的认为这样会帮到年轻人就业,而如今这项计划已基本 不再推行。 5 Job losses among older workers have also been more than offset by falls in inactivity, reflecting forces that were already apparent before the crisis. Older workers are healthier than they used to be and work is less physically demanding. They are also more attractive to employers than prior generations. Today’s 5544

经济学人中文网 to 64-year-olds are the advance squad of the post-war baby-boomers who benefited from better education than their predecessors. 虽然年长工人丢掉工作的情况时有发生,但由于求职积极性上升,有工作的年长工人人数反而上升 了,这反映出危机之前工人们已经明显地感觉到了压力。现代年龄大的工人身体状况较之于以往健 康很多,而且工作对于人力需求也逐步下降。今天,55-64 岁的工人算得上是二战后“婴儿潮”的先头 部队,他们比前辈接受了更好的教育。所以,与之前几代人的相比,如今这类雇员更容易得到工作。 6 Older workers now have a sharper incentive to stay in employment because of the impact of the crisis on wealth. In Britain, for example, workers who rely on private pensions have been adversely affected by lower returns on their investments and by poor annuity rates when they convert their savings into regular income. 由于金融危机对财富的冲击,年长工人继续工作的目的性更加清晰了。比如在英国,首先是投资回 报的减少,其次工人将养老账户余额转为固定收入,年金利率惨不忍睹;工人们赖以维系的私人养 老金因此受到极为不利的影响。 7 Many will argue that older workers have done better at the expense of the young. That view is wrongheaded. First, it is a fallacy that a job gained for one person is a job lost for another; there is no fixed “lump of labour”. And second, as the report shows, young and old people are by and large not substitutes in the workplace. They do different types of work in different types of occupation: younger people gravitate to IT firms, for example, whereas older folk tend to be employed in more traditional industries. There are plenty of things that should be done to help the young jobless, but shunting older workers out of the workplace is not one of them. 或许有不少人认为年龄大的工人做得比较好是以牺牲年轻人为代价换来的。这种观点是不正确的。 第一,认为一个人上岗就意味着另一个人下岗,纯属谬误;“劳动总数”并不是固定的。第二,据报 道称,在工作中年轻人和年长的人在大多数情况下并不是替换的关系。不同的工作岗位,给二者分 配的任务也是不同的:举个例子,年轻人就比较青睐信息技术公司,而老一点的人就倾向于在较为 传统的工厂工作。当然,帮助新人摆脱失业困境的方法有千千万,但是把老人赶走绝不是其中之一。 http://www.ecocn.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=193911&fromuid=272265 译者:cwxsylar

[2013.07.20] The triumph of low expectations 不失望只因期望少
【导读】美国银行界没让市场失望,盈利仍有增长,亏损也属轻微。但这种胜利是由市场低期望的 审慎选择迎来的,胜得缓慢,胜得淡薄,胜得无法让人兴奋。现在美国银行界就如一只大型蜗牛, 追着蝇头小利就要爬过终点了,但是,这终究是一条慢行道。

American banks 美国银行界

The triumph of low expectations


A world of low growth, risk aversion and regulatory uncertaint 这个世界——增长低迷,风险规避,法规不稳
Jul 20th 2013 | NEW YORK |From the print edition

1 “IT COULD have been worse” was the common refrain as American banks began reporting their second-quarter earnings. Indeed, the striking characteristic of the returns was their consistency. Big and small, local and national, lenders across the country have been benefiting from some common tailwinds. Legal settlements are becoming sparser; the economy is expanding, albeit feebly, and the housing market is recovering; auditors are pushing banks to keep releasing loan-loss reserves; and actual losses are trivial. 美国银行界纷纷开始发布第二季度盈利情况,对此,市场一次次地表示“本来会更糟糕”。的确如此, 市场震惊的是,各家盈利情况简直是千篇一律。纵观全国银行,无论规模大小,无论是地方银行, 还是国家银行,都乘着共有的东风获利。法律诉讼越来越少;即便势头微弱,经济仍在扩张;房地 产市场正在复苏;审计者正推动银行继续发放贷款损失准备金发;实际损失也是微乎其微。

2 But avoiding disaster is not really cause for celebration. Consumers continue to shed debt; companies carry ever more cash. Banks’ pre-provision revenue growth is muted (see chart 1), and there has been no recovery in loan growth of the sort seen after previous recessions (see chart 2). This is so unusual that it may be unprecedented, says Michael Mayo, an analyst at CSLA, a securities firm, and it hardly suggests a good prognosis for the banking system. He predicts that the current decade will show the worst revenue growth for banks since the 1930s. Pricing and margins will inevitably tighten as a result. 但是,避过了灾难真没什么值得庆祝的。如今消费者仍继续清偿债务;公司库存现金史上最高。银 行拨备前净利润增长式微(见图一) ,债务也没有像前几次衰退过后那般恢复快速增长(见图二) 。 证券公司 CSLA 的一位分析师,米歇尔-马由表示这现象很反常,可能将是史无前例的,很难说这 会是银行体系的好兆头。他预测,在这个十年的银行收入增长情况,将会自二十世纪三十年代以来 最糟糕的。结果就是议价能力和利润将不可避免地收紧。

经济学人中文网 3 In as much as borrowing activity has shifted from banks’ balance-sheets to the capital markets, some have benefited. The investment-banking arm of perpetually troubled Citigroup did well in the second quarter, as did the investment-banking arm of infrequently troubled Goldman Sachs. Underwriting and advisory revenues rose at both firms. Goldman reaped large gains from its own investments. 由于企业已经差不多不找银行借贷,而是投奔资本市场运作资本,所以几家投行从中获利。对于一 直深陷困境的花旗集团,它的投资银行部门在第二季度表现不错;对于时不时被困境所扰的高盛集 团,它投资银行部门的表现也不赖。两家公司的证券包销和咨询收入都见涨。高盛从自己的各项投 资中获利颇丰。 4 But Goldman’s return on equity was still barely in double digits. Its headcount is shrinking, not expanding. That is typically the single best indicator of an investment firm’s perspective on its prospects. Citi’s return on equity was well below Goldman’s, at 6.5%. Investors will not tolerate that sort of performance for ever. A major source of Citi’s revenue is in emerging markets, where conditions are deteriorating. 但是高盛权益收益率仍是勉强凑够两位数。其人员编制越来越少,而不是越来越多。雇员人数通常 最适合用来预测一家投行的前景。花旗的股权收益低于高盛,为 6.5%。投资者不可能永远容忍这种 业绩。花旗收益的一个主要来源是状况正在恶化的新兴市场。 5 The likelihood that the overall banking environment will improve in the near future is low. Recent rises in interest rates, prompted by expectations that the Federal Reserve will start slowing the pace of asset purchases, will take a toll on mortgage refinancing, a source of revenue that has produced great gobs of money for banks in recent years. It is probably no coincidence that share prices for most financial institutions have flattened in recent weeks. 银行的综合境况在近期得以改善的可能性较低。由于市场预测美联储将开始放缓购买资产的步奏, 近期利率有所上升。这将打击房贷再次融资,阻碍银行像近年来一样从中获取大量资金。而大多数 金融机构的股价近几周处于持平状态可能不是巧合。 6 Regulators and politicians are still trying to suppress banks’ risk appetite, not whet it. American financial institutions are already expecting to hold more risk-weighted capital in order to conform with the international Basel 3 standards. Worried by the potential for banks to game the calculations that underpin these same risk weightings, regulators this month proposed a higher “leverage ratio”, a blunter measure of capital that reflects the overall size of a bank’s balance-sheet as well as its riskiness. The proposal calls for a 5% leverage ratio at the holding-company level, and 6% at the level of the bank, for the eight largest banks: Bank of America, BNY Mellon, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, State Street and Wells Fargo. 监管者和政治家们仍然不鼓励并极力遏制银行冒险。为了符合国际巴塞尔协议 III 的标准,美国金融 机构已经在期待持有更多风险加权资本。而决定这些风险权重的计算方法,很有可能被银行操纵, 所以出于此担心,监管者于本月建议提高“杠杆率”。“杠杆率”是衡量资本的更粗略指标,能够同时 反映银行资产负债表的总体规模和其风险系数。该提议要求八家银行的控股公司执行 5%的杠杆率,

经济学人中文网 银行自身执行 6%的杠杆率。这些银行分别为:美国银行,纽约梅隆,花旗集团,高盛,摩根大通, 摩根士丹利,美国道富银行和美国富国银行。 7 The new numbers will require institutions to fund themselves with more equity, further diluting returns (at least in the short term). Although the notion of a strict capital ratio has its detractors, it has a good chance of being instituted, says Michael Poulos of Oliver Wyman, a consultancy, if only because it is simple. But by increasing the cost of funding for the big institutions, he warns, the rule may push them away from safer, low-priced products and towards riskier, higher-margin ones. 新指标将要求金融机构筹集更多的所有者权益,权益收益将进一步被稀释(至少在近期而言) 。奥纬 咨询公司的迈克尔-保罗表示,虽然有人质疑执行严格资本率的效果,但是因为它便于操作,还是 很有可能被列入制度。但是他提醒道,如果提高了大型金融机构的融资成本,这一规定可能促使它 们放弃更安全、更低价的理财产品,而选择更高风险,更高利润的产品。 8 Bankers have not reacted vocally to the leverage-ratio proposal. That may be because they feared even harsher limits, or because they are keeping their powder dry for other fights. Lawmakers continue to circle the industry. In April two senators, Sherrod Brown and David Vitter, introduced a bill that would require the largest banks to increase their equity capital to 15% of assets. It was loudly applauded, and subsequently quietly ignored. On July 11th four senators proposed bringing back a version of the Glass-Steagall Banking Act of 1933 that separated commercial banking from investment banking. This idea has also garnered lots of praise and is also likely to be ignored, if only because of the practical difficulties involved. 银行家目前还未回应杠杆率提案。可能是因为他们担心这样会迎来更严厉的限制,或因为他们在储 存实力准备其他“战斗”。立法者仍继续设法约束金融业。四月,夏洛德-布朗和大为-维特尔两位 议员提出了一项法案,要求各大银行将权益资本提高到资产的 15%。该法案曾深受推崇,继而被默 默忽视。7 月 11 日,四位议员提议,要像 1933 年《格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案》那样,重新分离商业银 行和投资银行。这一想法得到了众多赞许,却也很可能被淡忘,也许就仅仅因为实际操作太过困难。 9 Even if these legislative proposals go nowhere, the regulatory environment is poised to become tougher with the Senate’s approval on July 16th of Tom Perez as secretary of labour and Richard Cordray as head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). In his prior position at the Department of Justice Mr Perez was an influential advocate of the principle of “disparate impact”—the idea that lending policies can be discriminatory because of their outcomes, even if there is no intent to discriminate. His approval is a congressional endorsement of uneconomic lending. 即便这些立法提案都不了了之,随着汤姆-佩雷斯和理查德-科尔德雷于 7 月 16 日经议会批准,分 别被任命为劳动部秘书和消费者金融保护局(CFPB)局长,监管大环境也势必会变得更为严格。佩 雷斯曾在司法部门任职,当时他宣传“差别效果”原则,颇具影响力。“差别效果”原则是说,即便银 行无意歧视,但是若借贷政策造成了差别影响,也视为歧视。他能上任说明国会认同他关于“非经济 借贷”的观点。 10 Mr Cordray’s appointment unlocks broad powers for the newly established CFPB, including the ability to investigate and regulate the price and scope of financial products under a new and undefined “abusive”

经济学人中文网 standard. Senate Republicans had vowed to refrain from approving Mr Cordray until changes were made to the CFPB’s underlying structure, so that less power was concentrated in a single director and its budget was made subject to congressional approval. Whatever concerns they had were abruptly waived. Perhaps, like many of America’s banks, they concluded that however bad things are, they could always be worse. 消费者金融保护局是新成立的部门,它拥有的广泛权力随着科尔德雷的上任而得以释放,其中一项 权力让该局能够调查并规范金融产品的价格和规模,这些金融产品涉及新型且未经确定的“争议”标 准。议会共和党人曾表示,誓不批准科尔德雷上任,除非 CFPB 改变根本结构,降低单一领导者权 力的集中度,预算必须经过国会批准才得通过。 不过无论他们有什么顾虑,都突然间动摇了。也许 就像很多美国银行那样,市场总是这么总结,无论情况多么糟糕,这总不是最糟糕的。

[翻译笔记] 1、refrain 作名词 释义之一为:“a comment or complaint that is often repeated: “Poor Tom” had become the constant refrain of his friends.” 2、拨备前利润(Pre-Provision Operating Profi/pre-provision revenue) :指尚未扣除风险准备金的利 润,它等于净利润与风险准备金之和。所谓拨备,指银行业按五级分类标准所提取的风险准备金。 3、证券包销(Securities underwrite) 是指证券公司将发行人的证券按照协议全部购入或者在承销期结 束时将售后剩余证券全部自行购入的承销方式。 4、 《格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案》 ,也称《1933 年银行法》第 16、20、21、32 条款作出了严格的分业规定: 商业银行不能进行企业股票((相关:理财 财经))、债券等的承销、承购业务,除了购买政府债券以外, 也不能经营证券投资等长期性投资业务。 http://www.ecocn.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=193930&fromuid=272265 译者:lily_scent

[2013.07.20]Bandwagon behaviour 从众行为
Free exchange 自由交流

Bandwagon behaviour 从众行为
Why missing out on one job application is bad news for your chances in the next 为什么说一次求职的失败对下一次来说是一个坏消息?
Jul 20th 2013 |From the print edition

1 A TRULY informed diner would choose a restaurant based on the quality of the menu and the chef's experience. The discerning investor would decide which company to back after studying the business plan and meeting the founders. In reality, people often copy the choices of others. Diners pick the crowded restaurant over the empty one. Investors go with the company that already has multiple backers. 真正见多识广的食客会根据饭菜的质量和厨师的经验来选择餐馆,有眼光的投资者会在研究了商业 计划并同创始人会面之后才决定投资哪家公司。但在实际生活中,人们却经常原封不动地照搬别人

经济学人中文网 的选择:就餐者常去顾客盈门的餐馆,而不去那些没人光顾的地方,投资者好选择那些早已被大多 数人所看好的公司。 2 Such bandwagon effects are not necessarily irrational. Often, the buyer knows less about a product than the seller; the collective wisdom of the crowd can correct for such “asymmetric information”. It can also be a way of coping with a surplus of choice: rather than study 100 models of music player, why not assume the market has already figured out the duds? 此类从众效应不一定是非理性的。一般来说,买方对商品的了解要少于卖方,而大众的集体智慧却 可以作为这种“不对称信息”的修正而存在。除此之外,当选择对象过剩时,集体智慧还可以作为一 种应对方法而存在:与其去比较 100 种不同型号的音乐播放机,为什么不假设那些不实用的型号已 被市场淘汰了呢? 3 The existence of bandwagon behaviour can be hard to prove. A product or an asset usually becomes popular (or unpopular) in the first place because it is genuinely superior (or inferior). But some have tried to isolate the self-fulfilling effects of popularity. One 2004 study by Alan Sorensen, now of the University of Wisconsin, examined accidental omissions from the New York Times bestseller list. By comparing the sales of books that did make the list and unlisted books that should have, the author could isolate the effect of inclusion—a modest boost to first-time authors' sales. In a 2008 study by Matthew Salganik of Princeton University and Duncan Watts, now at Microsoft Research, participants tricked into believing a song was more popular than it actually was were more likely to download it. 从众行为的存在自有其存在的道理。 一种商品或者一类资产之所以通常从一开始就被众人所接受 (或 者不受欢迎) ,是因为它们确实要比别的商品或者资产更好(或者不如别的商品和资产) 。但是,有 人一直在尝试着把从众行为的这种自我实现效应同从众行为本身分离开来。现执教于威斯康星大学 的 Alan Sorensen 曾在 2004 年进行过一项研究。在那项研究中,他对被《纽约时报》畅销书排行榜 偶然遗漏的书籍进行了分析。 通过对比上榜书籍以及本应上榜却被遗漏的书籍的销量, Alan Sorensen 分离出了“入选效应”。也就是说,对于一个首次上榜的作者,他的书籍的销量会因之而出现少许的 增加。 普林斯顿大学的 Matthew Salganik 和现于微软研究所工作的 Duncan Watts 在 2008 年进行的一 项研究显示,当参与者因盲从人言而相信一首歌曲比实际还要流行时,那么他下载这首歌曲的可能 性就会更大。 4 Scholars are now asking whether herd behaviour also prevails in labour markets. Although the number of long-term unemployed in America is coming down (see left-hand chart above), it is still near an all-time high. Such workers may simply be losing out to candidates with more qualifications or experience for the jobs that come open. A more ominous possibility is that long-term unemployment is at least partly self-fulfilling: employers may be reluctant to hire someone others have already passed over. 如今,学者们正在研究的是:羊群效应是否也在劳动力市场中占有一席之地?尽管美国长期失业人 数正处于下降之中(如左上图表所示) ,但是仍旧处在历史最高点附近。长期失业者有可能会在工作 机会来临时输给那些具有更多资历或者更多经验的应聘者。这是一种更悲观的解释。它认为,长期 失业至少具有部分自我实现效应。其具体表现是,雇主可能不太情愿去雇佣那些早已被别人挑剩下 了的应聘者。


经济学人中文网 5 To find out, Kory Kroft of the University of Toronto, Fabian Lange of McGill University and Matthew Notowidigdo of the University of Chicago devised an experiment in which they applied for 3,000 clerical, administrative, sales and customer-service jobs advertised online by submitting 12,000 fictitious cvs. The submissions were designed so that applicants with similar backgrounds, education and experience went for the same job. The only difference was how long the applicant had been jobless, a period that ranged from no time at all to as much as 36 months. 为了证明这种看法,多伦多大学的 Kory Kroft、麦吉尔大学的 Fabian Lange 和芝加哥大学的 Matthew Notowidigdo 设计了一项实验。在这项实验中,他们利用提交 12000 份伪造的简历的办法,申请了由 在线广告发布的 3000 个职位,这些职位包括办事员、管理人员、销售人员以及客户服务人员。被提 交的求职申请都遵循了同一个设计原则,其目的就是要使具有相似背景、学历和经验的申请者都去 申请同一份工作。唯一区别在于,应聘者失业的时间长短不一样,从根本没有失业过到已经失业达 36 个月之久不等。 6 Creating cover identities worthy of the CIA, the researchers assigned the fictitious applicants local phone numbers bought for the experiment, as well as e-mail addresses. They found that the odds of an applicant being called back by an employer declined steadily as the duration of unemployment rose, from 7.4% after one month without work down to 4-5% at the eight-month mark, where the call-back rate stabilised (see right-hand chart above). 为了使假身份足以达到 CIA 的水准,研究人员在伪造的申请书上分别写上了专为此次实验而买来的 当地电话号码以及电子邮件地址。他们发现,一份求职表得到雇主回应的几率会随着失业时间的增 加而呈现出稳定下降的态势。也就是说,失业者在失去工作一个月后得到雇主回应的比率为 7.4%, 随后失业者得到雇主回应的比率开始稳步减少,当失业时间增加到 8 个月以后,回应率会稳定在 4%-5%之间(如右上图表所示) 。 7 These results, the authors say, cannot be because employers found some qualitative flaw in the longer-term unemployed that was hidden from outsiders, since the applicants were similar in other respects. Another explanation for long-term unemployment—that people make less effort to find work as their time out of the labour force lengthens—is also not applicable here. 研究人员认为,之所以会出现这种情况,不可能是因为雇主没有在长期失业人员的简历中发现了什 么别人看不出来的质的问题,因为这些简历除了持续失业时间之外其它的并无不同。另一种解释认 为,随着失业时间的增加,长期没有工作消弱了人们找工作的动力。不过,这种解释也不适用于这 种情况。 8 A third possibility is that employers equate lengthening unemployment with atrophying skills and thus falling productivity. But this should be true whether the economy is booming or in recession. The decline in call-back rates was much more pronounced in cities with tight labour markets; call-back rates changed relatively little when higher unemployment prevailed locally. From this, the authors infer that employers are more likely to overlook a long period of unemployment if overall economic conditions are stacked against candidates. 第三种解释认为,雇主将失业时间的增加等同于工作技能的倒退。因此,在他们看来,失业者的生

经济学人中文网 产效率也必然会随之而下降。不管经济是处于繁荣期还是衰退期,这种解释都应该是正确的。在城 市中,当劳动力供大于求时,雇主回应率的下降幅度非常明显;当失业率升高时,雇主回应率的变 化则相对较小。研究人员由此得出了这样一个结论:如果经济的总体状况不利于应聘者,那么雇主 忽视那些出于长时间失业状态的人的可能性就越大。 9 These results strongly suggest that long-term unemployment is at least partly self-fulfilling. Like patrons who avoid restaurants purely because they are empty, employers were reluctant to hire someone other employers didn't want. 这些研究成果明白无误地表明,长期失业至少存在着部分自我实现的特性。这就如同那些纯粹因为 餐馆门庭冷落而避免去此类地方的常客一样,雇主在雇佣劳动力时也不太愿意雇佣那些别人不想要 的人。 Herd it through the grapevine 让从众行为为己所用 10 Although such bandwagon behaviour may be rational, it can also be deeply harmful. Two decades ago Abhijit Banerjee, now at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, devised a model of “rational herding” in which market participants base their decision on a combination of their own information and the actions of others. Over successive rounds of transactions, participants responded less to their own information and more to the herd. 尽管此类从众行为可能是理性的,但是它也可能具有巨大的危害性。现执教于麻省理工的 Abhijit Banerjee 曾在 20 年前设计了一个“理性从众行为”模型的实验。在那次试验中,市场参与者的判断是 在结合了自身意见和他人选择的基础上做出的。实验显示,在经过了连续几轮的相互权衡后,参与 者在作出反应时,减少了基于自己信息的判断,增加了对群体效应的盲从。 11 That can lead to poor outcomes. Imagine a newly unemployed worker who narrowly misses out on the first job he applies for. That initial failure reduces his odds of landing the second job he applies for, and so on, until he ends up as one of the long-term unemployed. The growth of cv-screening software may exacerbate the trend by reducing the chances that someone in human resources will pull the details of a long-term unemployed worker out of the pile of applications. One near miss can increase the odds of protracted failure. 这个实验考诉我们,理性从众行为可以导致恶劣的后果。想象一下:如果一个刚刚失业的工人在第 一次求职时最后功亏一篑,那么这次最初的失败就会减少他在第二次求职时获得工作的几率。以此 类推,最后他不得不接受自己成为一个长期失业者的现实。由于简历筛选软件降低了人力资源部门 的职员从一大堆求职申请中抽出长期失业者求职细节的机会,因此它的出现可能会助长这种趋势。 一次的功亏一篑可能会增加连续失败的几率。 12 Popularity is not destiny, fortunately. Mr Salganik and Mr Watts could turn an unpopular song into a hit by manipulating its perceived popularity, but could not turn a hit into a loser. Even after being falsely labelled the least popular song, the most popular song rose sharply in the rankings once enough people had listened to it. Similarly, Messrs Kroft, Lange and Notowidigdo found that even someone who has been

经济学人中文网 unemployed for several years has a 4% chance of a call-back. But their study suggests that taking some work is better than none for the recently unemployed. Once the bandwagon starts to roll, it is hard to stop. 值得庆幸的是,不受欢迎并不是一种宿命。Salganik 和 Watts 可以利用复制先前成功的方法将一首名 不见经传的歌曲推上排行榜,但是却不能将一首上榜歌曲变成一首不受欢迎的歌曲。即便是最受欢 迎的歌曲被错误地贴上了最不受欢迎的标签,只要听这首歌曲的人足够多,它仍然可以迅速地上榜。 同样,Kroft、Lange 和 Notowidigdo 也发现,即便是失去工作长达数年之久的失业者也存在着得到 雇主回应的机会,他们的成功率约为 4%。但是,这种的研究成果也在提醒那些刚刚失业的人,为了 避免今后长期失业,最好在失业后迅速找到一份工作。一旦“随大流”成为成为潮流,其势头是难以 阻挡的。 http://www.ecocn.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=194562&fromuid=272265 译者:fsz

[2013.07.23] Britain’s recovery: Hold your breath 英伦复苏路漫漫
【导读】英国 GDP 增长出现曙光?展望前途,路漫漫其修远…… 有诗叹曰: 经济季涨点六零, 财相房主笑盈盈。 低息贷款有保障? 遥望坎尼言与行。

又曰: 英伦复苏路漫漫, 政府选民泪未干。 低息保证有纸笔? 传语或可保平安?

Britain’s recovery 英伦复苏路漫漫

Hold your breath 屏住呼吸
If they could, the Conservatives might bring forward the election 如果可以的话,保守党或许会提前举行大选 Jul 27th 2013 |From the print edition


经济学人中文网 ANY electioneer worth his salt knows the importance of timing. Voters have short memories, so good news is better if it comes shortly before polling day. Given Britain’s bottom-of-table economic performance over the past three years, the coalition government knows that providing economic comfort before the next election is essential. Conservative and Lib Dem MPs will be relieved that GDP grew by 0.6% in the second quarter of 2013, an annual rate of 2.4%. But they should worry about how long the good feeling will last. 任何称职的竞选活动分子都知道选择时机的重要性。选民记性不好,因此在选举日在望时出笼的好 消息更能起到正面作用。考虑到最近三年来英国经济的垫底表现,联合政府很清楚,在下次大选之 前让人们对经济感到满意是获胜的关键。 GDP 在 2013 年第二季度增长了 0.6%, 按年度计算为 2.4%, 这会让保守党和自民党议员们感到宽慰。但他们应该为这样的好心情能够持续多久感到担忧。 The economic endowment handed to George Osborne, the Tory chancellor, in 2010 was dreadful—and politically crippling. Any chancellor who inherited the widest peacetime deficit on record and a debt-to-GDP ratio north of 65% could not provide much of a fiscal boost. But his brand of austerity—holding down investment to spare the fattest parts of the state—did not help. It means austerity will last well into the next parliament. There will be no election-winning stimulus. 2010 年,保守党财相乔治?奥斯本(George Osborne)不但接下了一个糜烂透顶的摊子,而且在政治 上也受到重重掣肘。任何一位财相,如果他的前任给他留下了创非战时纪录的国际收支赤字和大于 GDP 65%的举债率,都不大可能放手提供财政刺激。但奥斯本风格的紧缩——即为保全国家体制内 花销最大的部分而压制投资——却于事无补。上述举措意味着,紧缩将在议会换届后许久依然故我。 不会为赢得竞选而推出刺激经济的举措。 Yet loose monetary policy is finally starting to work. Mortgage rates are down, giving home owners more disposable income. More generous loans are available to new buyers, boosting demand. House prices have risen by 2% in a year, according to Nationwide, a lender. Rises in London and the south-east have been greater. Naysayers warn of a housing bubble. But Sebastian Graves, an economist at Goldman Sachs, says houses may be undervalued in Britain. In a recent paper Mr Graves calculates the “fair” value of a house using a technique that investors apply to valuing companies. Rental rates are akin to the “payout” a house gives each year; they are high. Mortgage rates are the cost of funding the house; they are low. Put together, the economically fair price appears loftier even than current market values. 然而,宽松的货币政策终于初见成效。按揭利率继续走低,这给了房屋拥有者们更多的可支配收入。 新购房者可以得到条件更优的贷款, 从而刺激了需求。 根据按揭社“全国联盟” (Nationwide) 的统计, 英国房价在一年中上扬了 2%, 伦敦与英格兰东南地区的上涨更是高于此数。 反对派在警告房屋泡沫 的可能性;但高盛(Goldman Sachs)的经济学家塞巴斯蒂安?格拉夫斯(Sebastian Graves)认为,英 国的房价或许还低于合理价位。在最近的一篇文章中,格拉夫斯用投资者用来对公司估价的一种方 法计算了房屋的“合理”价值。租金率高企不下,它们与每所房屋每年的收益相关。按揭利率低,它 们是为购房提供资金的花费。二者结合,合乎经济规律的公平价值似乎高于当前的市场价值。 British shoppers apparently feel the same way: consumer confidence has risen sharply in recent months. Since the measure is closely correlated with consumer spending—which accounts for two-thirds of output—there may be more decent GDP numbers on the way. As Britons feel wealthier, they spend more. 英国购物者显然也有同感:消费者信心最近几个月连连爆棚。这一测度与消费者花销密切相关,而 后者占生产总量的三分之二,因此更高的 GDP 增长或许即将来临。一旦英国人感觉自己的钱包鼓了 些,他们花起钱来就会更为大手大脚。


经济学人中文网 But the recovery remains skin-deep. The bones of Britain’s economy are rotten. Shoppers are consuming not because they earn more but because they can borrow more. Established firms with cash in hand are hoarding rather than investing. New firms with ideas but no funding find it hard to borrow: the banks will lend only against property. Britain still buys far more abroad than it sells, despite a weak currency. 但复苏程度仍旧十分肤浅。英国经济已经烂到骨子里了。购物者的消费增加并不是因为他们挣得多 了,而是因为他们更容易借钱了。手中资金充裕的知名公司正在积聚钱财而不是投资。有想法但缺 资金的新公司发现它们很难借贷:银行只是在有资产抵押的时候才肯借钱。尽管英镑疲软,英国现 在的出口额还远小于进口额。 At some point, these deeper problems will surface. They hazard the housing-fu

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