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赏析版2011年4-6月经济学人文章(英汉双语对照)汇集 2

2011 年 4-6 月赏析帖汇集 [2011.06.30]The seven-yearly war 欧盟七年预算之战 1 [2011.06.30]Welcome, bienvenue, willkommen 欢迎欢迎,热烈欢迎 5 [2011.06.30]Betting the farm 押宝“农场” 8 [2011.06.30]High-speed rail in China:Tracking slower 高铁悄然降速 10 [2011.06.28]Two thousand years in one chart 一表两千年 12 [2011.06.27]Sugar rush 糖糖糖 13 [2011.06.23]G?tterd?mmerung 诸神的黄昏 15 [2011.06.23]A New York state of mind 纽约心理咨文 16 [2011.06.22]Mapping Arctic sea-ice thickness:On thin ice?在薄冰上? 19 [2011.06.16]Bits and bob 别拿比特不当钱 21 [2011.06.16]Metabolic syndrome: A slim chance 机会渺茫 23 [2011.06.16]Happy customers, no profits 客户欢喜,利润没影 25 [2011.06.16]Nothing new under heaven 天下之事,古已有之 29 [2011.06.16]Materials science: Don't slag it off 别让它成为废渣 33 [2011.06.09]IBM's centenary:The test of time 百年 IBM:时间的考验 34 [2011.06.09]Running dry 枯竭 37 [2011.06.09]Welcome to IPOville 欢迎光临“公募上市”之城 38 [2011.06.09]Italy: Tangled webs 纠结之网 43 [2011.06.02]The end of AIDS?终结艾滋病? 49 [2011.06.02]Wanted: chief firefighter 招募首席消防员 53 [2011.06.02]Japan: The great wave 滔天巨浪 57 [2011.06.02]The history of AIDS: Heroes and villains 功臣与恶棍 60 [2011.06.02]Japan and sex: Waltzing into bedrooms and brothels 日本与性 62 [2011.06.02]An embarrassment to the beautiful game 精彩运动蒙羞 66 [2011.05.26]India in Africa: Catching up 奋起直追 68 [2011.05.26]Stellar evolution 恒星演化 70 [2011.05.26]Time for a change 改变的时刻 72 [2011.05.26]Foreign policy: Home alone 独守本土 75 [2011.05.26]Welcome to the Anthropocene 欢迎来到人类纪 80 [2011.05.19]There is no alternative 没有替代品 83 [2011.05.19]Medicine: There is no alternative 医学没有替代品 85 [2011.05.19]Fiji & Tonga: Island asylum 斐济与汤加紧张关系加剧 87 [2011.05.15]Decision time 抉择时刻: 德国走向十字路口 89 [2011.05.12]Save the fourth amendment 救救《第四修正案》 93 [2011.05.12]International justice in Africa 国际刑事法院开始发威 96 [2011.05.12]Single or quits 继续还是退出? 100 [2011.05.12]Retail banks: In vogue 零售银行:蔚然成风 103 [2011.05.12]...isn't destiny, one hopes 希望其结论并不代表宿命 110 [2011.05.12]Pyongyang confidential 平壤机密 112 [2011.05.10]Yuan large step 赢了一大步 115 [2011.05.05]Law firms—A less gilded future 律师业,未来风光不再 116 [2011.05.05]Poetry on power 权力之诗作 122 [2011.05.05]Sir Henry Cooper 亨利?库珀爵士 125 [2011.05.05]Artificial intelligence and humanity 人工智能与人类 126 [2011.05.05]How to curb your legal bills 如何控制你的法律服务费 129 [2011.05.05]The insanity clause 精神病免责条款 131

[2011.05.05]A novel way to combat corruption 印度行贿合法化 134 [2011.05.05]The devil and the deep blue sea 魔鬼和那湾蔚蓝深邃的海 [2011.05.03]The violence continues 暴力活动仍在持续 141 [2011.04.30]The revolt in Syria: Not so easy 没那么简单 143 [2011.04.28]Ben meets mike 本用上了扩音器 146 [2011.04.28]The royal wedding-We are amused 王室婚礼--我们很开心! [2011.04.28]Online reputations in the dirt 网络声誉蒙尘 153 [2011.04.20]Interesting reading 趣读 156 [2011.04.20]Where's the growth? 何处寻增长? 157 [2011.04.14]The economics of violence 暴力经济学 160 [2011.04.14]Facebook: Friends and enemies 友敌 165 [2011.04.14]India: Fling wide the gates 印度应该敞开大门 167 [2011.04.14]India and foreign investment 印度与外国投资 169 [2011.04.14]Carry on 套出个未来 172 [2011.04.14]Guarding the guards 监管“城市卫士” 174 [2011.04.14]Fail often, fail well 多一堑,长一智 176 [2011.04.07]Pensions:A storm in the windy city 芝加哥养老金风暴 180 [2011.04.07]Gendercide in India: Add sugar and spice 多生几个宝貝女兒 [2011.04.07]State of war 纷争之州 186 [2011.04.07]Mobile telecoms in Africa: Digital revolution 非洲数字革命 [2011.04.07]Too much, too young 太多,太年轻 192 [2011.04.07]Off message 异响 195 [2011.04.02]Medical diagnosis of malfeasance 对恶行的医学诊断 197



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[2011.06.30]The seven-yearly war 欧盟七年预算之战 Charlemagne The seven-yearly war 七年战争 Jun 30th 2011 | from the print edition There will be much blood and tears over the EU budget, but little will change. What a waste 围绕欧盟 预算会有一场血与泪的斗争,但鲜有改变会发生,真是白费力气 THE standards have been raised. The clarion has sounded. Europe’ nations are marching to the long s battle that is the negotiation over the European Union’s next seven-yearly budget. This time the fight for money could be even bloodier than in the past. But it is unlikely to be any more decisive. 标准提高了,号角响起了。欧洲各国纷纷奔向战场,准备打一场漫长的战争,这场战争就是关 于欧盟下一个七年预算的谈判。这次,这场资金之战会比以往更为血腥残酷,但却并不太会比 以前起到更多的决定性作用。 The rivals have prepared for months. Five of the biggest net contributors to the EU—Britain, Germany, France, the Netherlands and Finland—have said that the 2014-20 budget should grow more slowly than inflation, ie, a cut in real terms. The EU, they say, should submit to the same austerity as its members. The British prime minister, David Cameron, has fired some harassing shots, expressing “immense frustration” at the cost of a new eco-friendly building in Brussels, called “Europa” that , will house summits and the leaders’ “president”, Herman Van Rompuy.

对手们已经摩拳擦掌好几个月了。欧盟五个最大的净捐献国,即英国、德国、法国、荷兰以及 芬兰宣称 2014-2020 年度预算增长速度当缓于通货膨胀速度,也就是说,实际预算当减少。这 些国家声称欧盟也应该忍受其成员国面临的严峻处境。英国首相大卫卡梅伦的言辞更为犀利, 他对耗巨资建造“欧罗巴” 一事表示“十分沮丧” 。欧罗巴是一所位于布鲁塞尔的环保建筑, 将被用作欧盟峰会会场以及欧盟主席赫尔曼.范龙佩的官邸。 Against them line up the big recipients, above all Poland, that fear a loss of funds. The European Parliament, the champion of EU spending, wants a 5% increase in the budget as a share of European states’ national income (a rise in real terms, barring a recession). It says the EU needs more money to meet its members’ demands, among them creating a diplomatic service, supporting the Arab spring and fighting climate change. 与这些净捐献国针锋相对的则是一些大的资金接受国,波兰是其中的带头大哥,这些国家害怕 他们获得的资金会减少。欧盟的支出大户——欧洲议会则希望欧盟预算(该预算由各成员国国 民收入分摊)能够增加 5%(欧盟的实际预算会上升,除非遇上衰退) 。欧洲议会宣称欧盟需要 更多的资金来满足其成员国的需要,这些需要包括创设一个外交服务部门,支持“阿拉伯之春” 【1】运动以及应对气候变化。 This week the European Commission (the EU’s civil service) split the difference with what it called an “ambitious but responsible” proposal, though its muddled announcement hardly inspires confidence about its pledge to be transparent. The commission notes that, for all the talk of wasteful spending and pampered Eurocrats, its own running costs are 6% of the budget total. EU spending, in turn, amounts to just 2% of national budgets. “In every country there is a day when people stop working for the taxman and start earning for themselves,” says a senior Eurocrat. “In Belgium it happens some time in August. For the EU it is January 4th.” The trouble is, many taxpayers see EU spending as an extra burden; they do not want budget rises to mean they start earning for themselves in September. 本星期,欧洲委员会(欧盟的行政部门)与一个该委员会称之为“雄心勃勃而又负责任的”提 案妥协,达成一个折中方案。尽管委员会曾对政务透明化作出保证,但它含糊不清的声明让人 们相信难以它的承诺。委员会强调,尽管有言论声称欧洲委员会大肆挥霍,欧盟官员飞扬跋扈, 欧洲委员会的运行费用只占总预算的 6%。欧盟支出反过来只不过相当于欧盟各国国家预算的 2%。 “每个国家都会有这么一天,从那一天起人们不再为征税人工作,而是开始为自己挣钱, ” 一位欧盟官员如是说。 “在比利时,这一天是在八月的某个时候,对于欧盟官员来说则是在一月 四日。 ”问题是,很多纳税人都把欧盟支出看做是个额外的包袱,他们不希望欧盟预算增加就意 味着他们将从九月起才开始为自己挣钱。 One of the most vexed, and ultimately pointless, fights will be over “own resources”. In the past the EU has been financed mostly out of customs duties and agricultural levies. But these “traditional own resources” have dwindled thanks to trade liberalisation. About three-quarters of the budget is now funded directly by governments. Critics say this encourages selfish haggling and rigidity. “If France were to be financed by its 27 regions or Germany by its 16 L?nder or America by its 50 states, they would be paralysed,” says Alain Lamassoure, chairman of the European Parliament’s budget committee. His answer is to raise money directly from the citizenry. 围绕着“自有资源”展开的斗争是最烦心也是最无意义的斗争之一。过去欧盟资金主要来自于 关税和农业税。但是由于贸易自由化程度的加深,这些“传统的自有资源”已经逐渐减少了。 现在欧盟四分之三的预算都来自欧盟成员国政府的直接拨款。批评家们称这种资金募集模式鼓 励了自私的讨价还价行为和死板僵硬的作风。 “如果法国政府得由它的 27 个行政区提供资金支 持,德国政府的财政来源源源自它的 16 个联邦州,美国政府的预算来源于它的 50 个州,那么

这些政府就都会瘫痪, ”欧洲议会预算委员会主席阿莱恩拉马苏尔说。他对解决预算问题的答案 是直接从欧洲民众那里筹集资金。 Two methods are proposed by the commission: a financial-transaction tax (popular, though of questionable use if not done globally) and a European VAT (easy to raise but unpopular). The EU says such new taxes will allow governments to reduce their own contributions. Like much else in the budget dispute, this is a smokescreen. It does not matter if the EU’s money comes from the taxpayer’ s left or right pocket. States will block any pretence by the EU to acquire independent tax-raising powers. Any new taxes will be collected first by governments; so any euro handed to Brussels is a euro that is not available for spending at home. 欧洲委员会提出了两种解决方案:一是征收金融交易税(很受欢迎,但是如果不普遍征收的话 那么就会遭人质疑) ,二是征收欧洲增值税(很容易征收但是不受欢迎) 。欧盟宣称这些新税收 可以减轻欧盟成员国政府对欧盟提供资金支持的负担。欧盟不过是在耍障眼法而已,正如欧洲 委员会在预算之争中的其他很多提议一样。重要的是纳税人把钱交给了欧盟,至于这钱是来自 于纳税人的左口袋抑或是右口袋就无关紧要了。无论欧盟有何自募税金的企图,各成员国都会 加以阻挠。不管是什么名目的新税,都得先由各国政府征收,因为交给布鲁塞尔的任何一欧元 都无法为自己所使用。 The EU’s bigger share of “own resources” did not stop the then British prime minister, Margaret Thatcher, from securing a rebate in 1984. There will be fights over the commission’s attempt to simplify the rebate, and the bewildering “rebates on the rebate” given to Germany, the Netherlands, Austria and Sweden. Though smaller than it was, the rebate remains totemic. Britain says it is needed as long as the EU budget, particularly the common agricultural policy (CAP), is not reformed. And France will not talk of change before next year’s presidential election. So when the matter is finally settled (probably in late 2012) the likeliest outcome is stalemate. Nobody wants to undo the interlocked compromises of the past—even Britain has gone quiet on CAP—and there will not be much to spend on new priorities. The commission itself admits its budget is a matter of “evolution, not revolution”. 即使在欧盟拥有较多 “自有资源” 的时期, 它也没能阻止当时的英国首相玛格丽特.撒切尔在 1984 年成功获得部分退款【2】 。欧洲委员会试图精简这一退款,委员会还从返还给德国,荷兰,奥 地利和瑞典的退款中又扣留部分款项,令人困惑不解,这些问题仍将引起争论。尽管退款没有 以前那么多了,但是它还是象征性的存在着。英国政府宣称只要欧盟预算,特别是“共同农业 政策” 【3】不实行改革,那么欧盟对英国的退款就有必要。而法国在明年的总统大选前是不会 讨论什么改革的。如果这个问题能够得到解决,那也可能得等到 2012 年下半年,在此之前只最 有可能的是争论各方形成僵局。以前的那些折中方案错综复杂,没人愿意去解开这个结,即使 是英国也安静了下来,不怎么对“共同农业政策“发牢骚了。能够花在新的首要问题上的资金 也不多。欧洲委员会自己也承认,欧盟预算是个发展演化的问题,而不是革命的问题。 If not now, when? 此时不改,更待何时? This may be as much as can be expected from a union in which 27 members must decide money matters unanimously. But it is still a wasted opportunity. If the aftermath of the most severe financial crisis in seven decades is not the right time for reform, then when is? For some critics, any spending by the EU will always be too much. But even those who value the union despair at the complexity and absurdity of its finances. 欧盟无论作何决定,都必须征得 27 个成员国的一致同意,因此改革的难度是很大的。但是欧盟 仍然错失良机,如果在 70 年一遇的最严重的金融危机之后不改革,那什么时候改呢?某些批评

家过于苛刻,欧盟无论在哪方面的支出在他们看来都太多。但即使是那些看重欧盟的人,也对 它复杂荒谬的财政状况感到失望。 Were the Treaty of Rome signed today, the EU would not choose to spend two-fifths of its budget on agriculture. True, the butter mountains of old have disappeared, the CAP is shrinking and the EU does have a role to play in regulating agriculture. But the CAP is mostly a social-welfare programme, and that should be a matter for national governments. How to justify the iniquity of richer farmers in western Europe being paid far more than those in poorer central and eastern states? An equally big item is the “cohesion” policy for poorer states and regions. Richer countries should help poorer ones, but recycling money through Brussels for their own less well-off regions benefits only Eurocrats. 如果《罗马条约》 【4】是今天签订的,那么欧盟就不会将其五分之二的预算花在农业上了。是 的,昔日的“黄油山” 【5】业已消失, “共同农业政策”影响力也在与日俱减。虽然欧盟仍在对 农业的调控中起作用,但现在“共同农业政策”大体上看来不过是个社会福利计划,而社会福 利计划则是各国政府分内的事。西欧国家的农民比中东欧国家的农民富有,却能得到更多补贴, 如何为这一不公平的现象辩解?有鉴于此,为较贫困成员国及地区制定的“凝聚”政策也是同 等重要的。相对较富的国家应当帮助相对较穷的国家,但富国如果只是从布鲁塞尔那里讨要退 款以资助本国的不富裕地区,那么从中获益的只有欧盟官员。 What Europe needs, above all, is economic growth. The first job should be to avoid waste, such as parliamentary sessions in Strasbourg and ministerial ones in Luxembourg. What money the EU does spend would be better devoted to investment: linking trans-European transport and energy networks, say, or boosting the administrative capacity of weaker countries. Mr Barroso argues for all this. But as the war cry goes up, his courage to reform is failing him. 欧洲最需要的是经济发展,首先要避免的是浪费,比如在斯特拉斯堡开的欧洲议会会议以及在 卢森堡开的部长级会议。欧盟支出最好花在投资上,比如接通跨欧洲交通线及能源网络,以及 提升弱国的行政能力。尽管巴罗索先生【6】对这些都表示赞成,但随着战斗口号响起,他改革 的勇气却在渐渐消逝。 【1】即阿拉伯世界 2010 年末至 2011 年的反政府浪潮,始于突尼斯的一场席卷阿拉伯世界的反 政府革命及游行示威浪潮。 (查自维基百科) 【2】这一退款世称“英国退款”或“英国回扣” (The UK rebate),是通过当时英国首相撒切尔 夫人的谈判努力实现的,主要是因为欧盟预算的很大一部分(当时是 80%)都用于农业补贴, 这使得农业不占优势的英国获利甚少,所以欧盟将英国为欧洲预算提供的一部分资金返还给英 国。 (查自维基百科) 【3】 “共同农业政策”是欧盟的一项农业补贴政策,占欧盟预算很大一部分 【4】 《罗马条约》由法国,西德,意大利,荷兰,比利时及卢森堡于 1957 年 3 月 25 日在意大 利首都罗马签订。该条约实际上由两个条约组成,一是《欧洲经济共同体条约》二是《欧洲原 子能联营条约》 (查自维基百科) 【5】 “黄油山”同时还有“牛奶湖” (milk lakes)的说法, 是指欧盟为维持奶制品价格,保护奶 农利益,大量收购黄油,使得欧盟冷库中的黄油堆积如山,故有“黄油山”之说。 (查自维基百 科及《纽约时报》2009 年 2 月 2 日,题为“EU’s butter mountain is back”的报道) 【6】即何塞.曼努埃尔.杜朗.巴罗索(José Manuel Dur?o Barroso) ,葡萄牙政治家,葡萄牙前总 理,现任欧洲委员会主席。 (查自维基百科) http://www.ecocn.org/thread-51680-1-1.html 译者:Alexander101 [2011.06.30]Welcome, bienvenue, willkommen 欢迎欢迎,热烈欢迎 China abroad 海外中国 Welcome, bienvenue, willkommen 欢迎欢迎,热烈欢迎

America needs to worry about the contrast between its attitude to China and Europe’s 欧洲对中国的 态度和美国截然不同,美国该担心了 Jun 30th 2011 | from the print edition IN EUROPE, the red carpet. In America, a red mist. This week’s tour of European capitals by Wen Jiabao, China’s prime minister, underlined the stark transatlantic difference in responses to China’s economic clout. European leaders, caught up in the euro area’ crisis, want China to buy more of their s debt; American politicians worry that it owns too much of theirs. For European politicians the value of the yuan is one worry among many; it sometimes feels like Americans can think of little else. In Europe, Chinese firms are broadly welcome; in America, they are often viewed with suspicion. 欧洲,红地毯迎接;美国,红眼相向。本周,中国总理温家宝出访欧洲三国,对照出了美国和 欧洲对中国影响力截然不同的反应。欧洲的领导深陷债务危机,希望中国购买更多欧元债券; 而美国的政治家则担心中国持有过多的美国债券。对于欧洲的政治家而言,人民币的价值只是 众多烦恼之一;而美国却给人这样的感觉:除了人民币币值,它什么都不关心。中国公司在欧 洲广受欢迎,在美国则常常被怀疑看待。 Europe’s receptiveness to China is born partly of weakness. Delegations from peripheral euro-zone countries have been flying into Beijing to seek buyers of their debt. Fixers working for Chinese companies report a steady stream of inquiries from cash-strapped European firms. But even among Europe’s stronger economies, the political bias is to promote investment from China, not deter it (see article). 欧洲对中国的接纳部分出于经济疲软。欧元区外围国家的代表团纷纷飞往北京,寻求债券买家。 为中国公司工作的调停者报告说捉襟见肘的欧洲公司咨询电话源源不断。但即使是经济表现稍 微强劲的欧洲国家,政治家也是偏向于促进中国的在欧投资,而不是阻止。 Middle Kingdom meets Mittelstand 中国交手中小企业 That stance will have big consequences. China’s foreign direct investment to date has focused on securing the energy and resources that its industrialising economy craves. Chinese money has been visible in Asia, Africa and Latin America, buying up everything from copper mines in Peru and farmland in Tanzania to aluminium smelters in Australia. But the next stage in China’s emergence is under way and it will centre on Europe. 这个立场将产生巨大影响。迄今为止,中国的海外直接投资一直专注于工业化经济渴求的能源 和资源领域。亚洲、非洲和拉丁美洲处处可见中国投资身影,从秘鲁的铜矿、塔桑尼亚的农场 到澳大利亚的制铝厂,通通被买下。但中国正在筹备下一个登台之所,它将以欧洲为中心。 To understand why, consider each of the world’s three largest economic powers in turn. China wants to climb the development ladder. Its burgeoning domestic markets are fiercely contested, so its firms want new sources of advantage like Western brands and marketing expertise. Its export-oriented firms want to lock in closer ties with end-customers. 要明白个中原因,依次想想世界上三大经济巨人居然就知道了。中国力求不断发展,生机勃勃 的国内市场竞争激烈,国内企业需要挖掘新优势,比如西方专业的品牌和营销知识。外贸公司 则希望能和终端客户建立更紧密的联系。 America is the natural place for China to turn to but the economic relationship between the superpower and the dragon breathing down its neck is fraught. Ever since CNOOC, a state-controlled Chinese oil firm, was forced out of the bidding for California’s Unocal in 2005 by congressional and media critics, many big Chinese companies have regarded America as fundamentally hostile to their investments.

美国是中国的天然投资宝地,但是超级大国和紧盯着它的一举一动的中国龙,两者间的经济关 系充满忧虑。并非空穴来风。2005 年,在议会和媒体的齐齐炮轰下,中国政府控制的石油公司 中海油在加利福尼亚优尼科竞标中被迫出局, 很多大型中国企业认为美国是从根本上仇视投资。 This perception is not entirely fair. The process for screening inward investments into America on security grounds does not appear to discriminate against China. But Chinese companies wanting to buy American assets must be prepared to risk public attacks by wealthy lobby groups and frothing congressmen. Many choose to avoid America instead. A report by the Asia Society in Washington, DC, says that scaremongering about China could lead America to forfeit a share of $1 trillion-worth of outward Chinese direct investment by 2020. 这个看法有失公平。出于安全角度,筛选进入美国的投资并不意味着歧视中国。但想购买美国 资产的中国企业必须有风险意识, 迎接来自富裕的游说团体和唾沫横飞的国会议员的公开攻击。 也有很多避开美国的。据位于华盛顿的亚洲协会的一份报告,妖魔化中国可能导致美国在 2020 年前丧失 1 万亿美金的直接投资。 More of that cash is instead heading to Europe. Investment bankers there are now sure to dial Chinese clients if they hear that a firm is a possible bid target. Chinese banks are rapidly increasing their presence in Europe. Mainlanders are snapping up central London residences. Chinese direct investment abroad has increased faster in Europe than in any other region. 现在这 1 万亿美金大部分正流向欧洲。那里的投资银行家现在一得知某个公司可能成为收购目 标,肯定会联系中国的客户。中国的银行迅速增加了在欧洲的活动;大陆客在抢购伦敦市中心 公寓;中国海外直接投资在欧洲的比例比在任何其他地区都上升得快。 The Europeans get more than just money. A Chinese partner is a good way for a European brand to gain access to the world’ soon-to-be-biggest economy. Ask France’ Club Med, which now has a big s s Chinese shareholder and recently opened its first holiday resort in the country. Or CIFA, an Italian construction-equipment maker whose products are now marketed as a premium brand by its Chinese owner. Or Sweden’s Volvo, which was bought by Geely, a Chinese carmaker, in 2010 and now calls China its “second home market”. 欧洲人得到的不仅仅是钱。一个中国合伙人,为欧洲品牌打入即将是世界第一大经济体的市场 提供了捷径。不信的话,看看法国的地中海俱乐部,它现在有个中国大股东,最近在国内建立 了第一个度假山庄;再瞧瞧意大利的建筑设备制造公司 CIFA,它的产品现在是中国合伙人(中 联重科)的主打品牌;再想想瑞典的沃尔沃,2010 年被汽车制造商吉利收购后,现在称中国为 它的“第二国内市场” 。 European voters are less happy about all this than their leaders: polls show that they view Chinese investments nearly as negatively as Americans do. Three worries predominate. The first is that China will strip Europe of technology and jobs. It is true that Chinese firms are often interested in buying European companies to use their know-how in China (or worse, to steal it). But Chinese firms want to conquer markets abroad as well as at home, and to do that in Europe, they must create jobs there. The second fear is that the Chinese are buying European jewels on the cheap. But there’s no evidence for that. Indeed, they are more likely to overpay: countries and firms with excess savings nearly always do. The third concern is that investments in assets like utilities and mobile technology threaten Europe’s security. But processes exist to screen foreign investments on those grounds.There’s no reason to think that they are wanting, and no reason to tighten them until that changes. 欧洲的投票人对此可不像他们的领导那么开心:民意测验显示他们看待中国投资几乎和美国一 样消极。主要是三个忧虑。第一是中国会抢走欧洲的技术和工作。事实上,中国公司常常热衷 于购买欧洲公司然后将其技术用在国内(或者更糟,窃取技术) 。但中国企业如果要想政府海外 和国内市场,必须给当地创造工作机会。第二个是中国正以低价收购欧洲的珠宝,但没有证据。 的确,他们更可能多付钱:储蓄过多的国家和公司几乎都这样。第三便是公用事业和移动技术

之类的投资威胁欧洲的安全。但是为安全的缘故对境外投资进行筛选的程序是存在的。除非境 况有变,否则没有理由认为此种程序阙如,也没有理由从严执行。 China’s outward march certainly argues for vigilance, for it is the consequence of a huge shift in the balance of power, and change always involves risk. But the opportunities are greater than the dangers. In welcoming China, Europe is swimming with the tide of history; America is struggling against it. 中国的向外进军必然引发警惕,因为它是权力平衡巨大改变的结果,而且变化往往与风险同行。 但是机会大于危险。在欢迎的队列里,欧洲顺应了潮流,而美国则挣扎其中,逆势而动。 from the print edition | Leaders http://www.ecocn.org/thread-51544-1-1.html [2011.06.30]Betting the farm 押宝“农场” Technology IPOs 科技企业 IPO 风潮 Betting the farm(注)押宝“农场” Zynga may be a good business, but the tech bubble is expanding Zynga 或许是家好公司,但科技泡沫却不断膨胀 Jun 30th 2011 | from the print edition PLAYERS of FarmVille, an online game, raise virtual chickens on an imaginary farm. Yet they are happy to swap real money for virtual money to buy virtual farm tools. And investors are likely to pay more than chicken feed for shares in Zynga, the firm that makes FarmVille and other online games. 网络游戏“开心农场”的玩家可在农场养鸡,虽说一切都是虚拟的,他们却很乐意拿真钱兑换 虚拟货币去买虚拟农具。玩家在鸡饲料之类的东东上花的虽是小钱,但投资者购买 Zynga 股份 砸下的却可能是重金,正是这家公司打造了“开心农场”及其他网络游戏。 Zynga is expected to file soon for an initial public offering (IPO). Analysts predict that the firm will be valued at between $15 billion and $20 billion. That is about as much as the world’s two biggest video-game makers (Electronic Arts and Activision Blizzard) combined. 人们预计 Zynga 很快就会申请 IPO。分析家预测其估值将在 150 亿美元~200 亿美元之间。这大 致相当于全球两大视频游戏商 Electronic Arts 与 Activision Blizzard 的市值总和。 More than 271m people play Zynga’s games at least once a month, and the firm said in March that it expects to make a profit this year of $630m on revenues of $1.8 billion. So its business is more real than those of some other online firms. But it is not something a sober investor would bet the farm on. Users may tire of virtual vegetables and online Mafia Wars (another popular Zynga game). Rivals are straining to grab Zynga’ players. Electronic Arts, Playdom and Wooga have only about 30m monthly s active users each, but they may catch up. 有超过 2.71 亿人每月至少玩一次 Zynga 的游戏,而该公司 3 月声称,预计今年收入将达 18 亿 美元,利润将达 6.3 亿美元。这样看来,其生意可比别的互联网公司来得实在。但这并不意味 着,头脑清醒的投资者应当把所有家当都押在这家公司的网络游戏业务上。用户或许不再对虚 拟蔬菜着迷,也厌烦了 Zynga 另一款流行网络游戏“黑帮战争(Mafia Wars)。竞争对手又在 ” 极力争抢 Zynga 的玩家。像 Electronic Arts, Playdom 与 Wooga 三家公司,各家每月仅有约 3000 万活跃用户,但可能迎头赶上。 What is more, Zynga depends on two other firms, Amazon and Facebook, like the cabbage crop depends on the rain. Although it operates data centres of its own, it outsources much of its computing to Amazon Web Services, the cloud-computing arm of the online shopping giant. More importantly,

most users play Zynga’s games on Facebook. In September the social network pushed Zynga into using its virtual currency, called “Facebook Credits”, so Facebook gets 30% of what Zynga’s users spend. 此外,就像卷心菜收成要靠风调雨顺,Zynga 还得仰仗另两家公司亚马逊和 Facebook 过活。尽 管其运营着自己的数据中心,却外包了相当多计算任务给网络购物巨头亚马逊旗下的云计算部 门 Amazon Web Services。更要紧的是,多数用户都在 Facebook 上玩 Zynga 游戏。去年 9 月, 这家社交网络公司迫使 Zynga 使用其自己的名为“脸书积分(Facebook Credits) ”的虚拟货币, 如此一来,Facebook 就能从 Zynga 用户花费上提成 30%。 With Zynga gearing up for its IPO, the question now is which other tech start-up is next in line to go public. With Groupon, an online coupon service, also about to float, the supply of hot stocks is running low. Zynga 已准备好上市,当前的问题在于,下个上市的新兴科技企业是哪一家。而随着团购服务 提供商 Groupon 也将上市,热门科技股的供应已所剩无几。 But Silicon Valley venture capitalists are busy replenishing the pool. On June 24th it emerged that foursquare, a location-based service, had raised $50m, a deal that values it at $600m. (Foursquare lets users electronically “check in” at bars and restaurants so their friends can join them—and the people who owe them money can avoid them.) A few days later investors pumped $100m into Square, a mobile-payments start-up, valuing it at $1 billion. Neither firm has ever turned a profit. 但硅谷的风投正忙于补充这一股池。6 月 24 日,市场显示,基于用户地理位置提供服务的商家 Foursquare 筹措了 5000 万美元,这笔交易中,其估值达 6 亿美元。Foursquare 可让用户通过使 用移动设备或发送消息等电子方式,在酒吧和饭店“签到” ,报告所处位置,这样一来,其朋友 就可按此地址赴会,而欠了他们钱的那些人则可以绕道而走,避免碰头。几天后,投资者向估 值达 10 亿美元的移动支付新兴企业 Square 注资 1 亿美元。这两家公司均未盈利。 注:Betting the farm 语带双关。表面上,bet the farm 是俗语“打赌”的意思,表示 Zynga 公司即将 IPO,投资者购 买其股票,就像一场赌博,而 farm 又暗指其打造的网络游戏 FarmVille ,即“开心农场” 。 http://www.ecocn.org/thread-51409-1-1.html 译者:zhanyisky [2011.06.30]High-speed rail in China:Tracking slower 高铁悄然降速 A showcase line, but throttling back 一条用于示范但“缩水”的高铁线路 Jun 30th 2011 | SHANGHAI | from the print edition THE heart of China’s national railway policy has been the pursuit of speed. And having built the world’s longest high-speed network from scratch, this week the country proudly launched its showcase project, the 1,318km (820-mile) Beijing-Shanghai line. Running at speeds of over 300km an hour, the sleek electric train cuts the travel time between China’s two most important cities by nearly half, to four hours and 48 minutes. 中国国家铁路的政策核心向来唯速度是瞻。如今,中国已建成了世界上最长的高速铁路网络, 填补了之前的高铁建设空白。本周,中国自豪地将其高铁示范项目——高铁京沪线投入运营, 该线路全长 1318 公里(820 英里) ,运行时速为每小时 300 多公里。这列流线造型的电气列车 将中国两座最核心城市间的旅程时间缩短了将近一半,运行时间仅 4 小时 48 分。 The service is designed as a rival to air travel. Indeed, at Beijing South station, the ultra-modern facility resembles an airport. The other terminus, meanwhile, actually is at Shanghai’s domestic

airport. But that means travellers lose the benefit of a downtown arrival, often touted as an advantage of trains. Even on intermediate stops, stations are far from urban centres. 高铁服务的设计初衷就是与航空服务竞争。实际上,拥有超现代化设施的高铁北京南站,其建 筑模式与机场极其相似,同时高铁的另一终端站实际上就位于上海虹桥机场。但这也意味着旅 客失去了到达市中心的便利性,而市中心设站经常被吹捧为铁路的优势所在。甚至是京沪高铁 的各沿途停靠站,其站点位置也都远离市中心。 Travel time might have been shorter still, but for controversy over the train’s speed. Journeys of 350km an hour had been promised. Then a system-wide slowdown to around 300km an hour was announced. At the time, the government insisted this was to save energy. It strenuously denied that safety was a factor, despite concerns from Chinese and foreign engineers. But now an official at China’ Railway Electrification Bureau admits the slowdown was based on concerns over safety after s all. 要不是高铁速度引起广泛争论,旅程时间本是可以进一步缩短的。铁路部门之前曾允诺列车运 行时速将达 350 公里。但随后又宣布系统全线减速到每小时 300 公里左右。当时,政府坚称这 是出于节能考虑。尽管中外工程师对高铁的安全性表示忧虑,但政府却极力否认安全性是被考 虑的因素。现在中国铁路电气化局的一名官员终于肯承认高铁降速是出于安全性考虑。 The Beijing-Shanghai line took only three years to build. With a price tag of $34 billion, it may never recoup its costs. Still, better connections could bring more productivity gains to China than in more developed countries. Ying Jin at Cambridge University says high-speed rail could foster development away from China’s megacities. 高铁京沪线建设历时仅三年。高达 340 亿美元的造价意味着它可能永远收不回成本。但是与那 些更发达的国家相比,中国能从较完善的铁路连接中获得更大的经济效益。剑桥大学的应金表 示中国高铁可能带动中国特大城市以外地区的经济发展。 Meanwhile, for those who find the line’s suburban stations inconvenient, Mr Ying says, people need only be patient. With urbanisation in China roaring ahead, it is only a matter of time before the cities pull up at the stations, rather than the other way around. 应先生同时表示,对于那些认为高铁郊区设站不够方便的人们来说,他们需要的是耐心。随着 中国城市化的步伐突飞猛进,高铁设站城市将向远郊的高铁站发展延伸,而不是更加远离,而 实现前者也只是时间的问题。 舒适的商务车厢 车厢内实时显示当前列车运行时速 http://www.ecocn.org/thread-51237-1-1.html 译者:squarrel2009 [2011.06.28]Two thousand years in one chart 一表两千年 Quantifying history 量化历史 Two thousand years in one chart 一表两千年 Jun 28th 2011, 13:08 by The Economist online An alternative timeline for the past two millenia 过去两千年的另一张时间表

SOME people recite history from above, recording the grand deeds of great men. Others tell history from below, arguing that one person's life is just as much a part of mankind's story as another's. If people do make history, as this democratic view suggests, then two people make twice as much history as one. Since there are almost 7 billion people alive today, it follows that they are making seven times as much history as the 1 billion alive in 1811. The chart below shows a population-weighted history of the past two millennia. By this reckoning, over 28% of all the history made since the birth of Christ was made in the 20th century. Measured in years lived, the present century, which is only ten-years old, is already "longer" than the whole of the 17th century. This century has made an even bigger contribution to economic history. Over 23% of all the goods and services made since 1AD were produced from 2001 to 2010, according to an updated version of Angus Maddison's figures. 英雄史观者论史,言则必称高高在上的帝王将相, 诵则无非大人物的丰功伟绩。 人民史观者 论史,则着眼于黎民众生, 地位不论高低, 所创历史之多寡, 彼此无异。 如果历史由人民 创造, 此乃民主观点含义之所在,那么, 两个人所创历史必是一人之创的两倍 。因为现在地 球有 70 亿人类,1811 年有 10 亿人类,这意味着,人们现在创造的历史是 1811 年的 7 倍。下 表展示了过去两千年以来按人口加权的历史。根据这种测算,自耶稣诞生以来创造的历史中, 有 28%是在 20 世纪创造的。以这种方式测算,21 世纪开始还不到 10 年,却已经比整个 17 世 纪要“漫长” 。21 世纪对经济史的贡献更为巨大。根据安格斯?麦迪森(Angus Maddison)最新 版的数据,从 2001 年到 2010 年出现的商品和服务,占到自公元前 1 世纪以来出现的商品和服 务总量的 23%以上。 http://www.ecocn.org/thread-50955-1-1.html 译者:migmig [2011.06.27]Sugar rush 糖糖糖 Diabetes 糖尿病 Sugar rush 糖糖糖 Jun 27th 2011, 13:19 by The Economist online The progress of a disease over thirty years 一种疾病三十年来的进展状况 THE number of adults with diabetes more than doubled between 1980 and 2008, according to a new study led by Professor Majid Ezzati of Imperial College London and Goodarz Danaei at Harvard University and published in the Lancet. This jump is not quite as horrific as the numbers might initially suggest, because ageing helped push up rates. But a good 30% of the increase was caused by higher prevalence of diabetes across age groups. Obesity seems to be a main culprit; the authors found a high correlation between rising rates of diabetes and a rise in body mass index. The global leap masks considerable variation between the sexes and among regions. Across the world the rate of diabetes rose by 18% for men and by 23% for women, to 9.8% and 9.2% respectively. In some countries the gap between the sexes was more dramatic. In Pakistan, for example, rates jumped by 46% for men and by 102% for women. The highest incidence of all is found in the Marshall Islands, where more than a quarter of all adults had diabetes in 2008. America has lived up to its hefty reputation. Women’s rate of diabetes jumped 79%, something that has contributed to a decline in life expectancy among some groups. And once again, French women are the envy of the world. Rates there fell by 11.2%. 根据伦敦大学帝国理工学院的 Majid Ezzati 教授和哈佛大学的 Goodarz Danaei 领导的一项新研 究(研究结果发布在《柳叶刀》上) ,患糖尿病的成年人数量在 1980-2008 年期间增加了一倍多。 这个猛增并不像数字表面看起来那样吓人,因为人口老龄化也促进了糖尿病比率的提升。但是 足足有 30%的增长是由跨年龄组中很高的糖尿病患病率引起的。肥胖似乎是一个主要元凶;作

者发现了糖尿病的增长率和上升的身体质量指数(BMI)之间呈高度相关。 全球的跳跃式增长掩盖 了性别间和地区间相当大的差别。全球的糖尿病患病率——男性增加了 18%,达到 9.8%;女性 增加了 23%,达到 9.2%。在某些国家,性别间的差异更为显著。例如,巴基斯坦男性患糖尿病 的比率增长了 46%,而女性增长了 102%。所有国家中,患病率最高的地方是马绍尔群岛,2008 年那里超过 1/4 的成年人患有糖尿病。美国人糖高名副其实。美国女性糖尿病的比率跳升 79%, 这某种程度上导致有些组的预期寿命的下降。法国女性再次成为世界艳羡的对象。那里的糖尿 病比率下降了 11.2%。 http://www.ecocn.org/thread-50960-1-1.html 译者:eastx [2011.06.23]G?tterd?mmerung 诸神的黄昏 The Bayreuth Wagner festival 德国拜罗伊特瓦格纳音乐节 G?tterd?mmerung(注) 诸神的黄昏 The murky world of subsidised opera 政府补贴的歌剧业,票务运作晦暗不明 Jun 23rd 2011 | BERLIN | from the print edition We’ll trade you tickets for decent costumes 给我们体面的戏服吧,我们用门票回报你 GETTING a seat at the annual Bayreuth Festival of Richard Wagner’s operas is about as easy as shaking off a dwarf’s curse: the average waiting time is nine years. But things may change. On June 15th the Bundesrechnungshof, Germany’s federal audit office, recommended that the festival, which gets over 5m ($7.2m) a year of public money, should change the way it allocates tickets. 一年一度的拜罗伊特理查德?瓦格纳音乐节行将开幕,要从中谋得一席并不费劲,大致就跟摆脱 小矮人的咒语差不多,平均等上 9 年就好。但世事无常。6 月 15 日,德国联邦审计院 (Bundesrechnungshof)建议这项每年获拨公帑超过 500 万欧元(720 万美元)的音乐节,应转 变票务分配方式。 Only 40% are sold directly to the public—a mere 16% if it’s a premiere. Murky quotas take care of the rest. The Society of Friends of Bayreuth gets 24% for its members. Around 30% go to such worthy causes as travel agents, who wrap them into hugely expensive tours, and corporate sponsors, for impressing (or perhaps intimidating) clients. 只有 40%的票直接卖给了公众,而要是首演剧目,则该数字仅有 16%。余下的票都暗箱操作分 掉了。 “拜罗伊特之友协会” (The Society of Friends of Bayreuth) 拿走了 24%的票给会员。 30% 约 的票落到了一些从事着高尚事业的团体头上,如旅行社跟赞助企业。前者把这些票跟豪华旅游 路线捆绑推销,后者想给客户留下深刻印象,抑或震他们一下。 Sponsors must foster a long-term relationship to have a solid chance of ticket quotas, apparently. The process is far from transparent. The German Confederation of Trade Unions has one closed performance for its own big night out. Loyal trade unionists who are not Wagner fans (such people exist, believe it or not) have reportedly been able to sell their seats for a profit. There are moves to stop this practice. 显然,为了有把握获得票额,赞助商须跟音乐节组委会建立长期合作关系。这一过程极不透明。 德国工会联合会(The German Confederation of Trade Unions)拥有一场专属狂欢夜表演,不对

外开放。那些忠心耿耿却非瓦格纳粉丝的工会会员(存在这种人,信不信由你) ,据报道,能够 卖掉自己的席位赚点小钱。已采取了行动制止这种勾当。 Although ticket sales cover barely half the running costs—staging the end of the world is not cheap— the festival gives away 2,650 tickets a year to artists, its own staff, journalists and “special cases”. That reduces even further the tickets available to Joe Public. Opera is great art, and part of Germany’ s heritage. But the state has no business subsidising corporate entertainment. 尽管票务销售刚刚够负担一半运作成本——毕竟要展现世界末日并不便宜——但音乐节每年仍 要发放 2650 张门票给艺术家、自己的员工、记者以及“某些特例” 。平头百姓能拿到的票越来 越少。歌剧是一门伟大的艺术,也是德国文化传统的一部分。但德国政府资助企业娱乐活动, 实属不该。 注:G?tterd?mmerung 即《诸神的黄昏》 ,既是指是北欧神话,表示预言中的一连串巨大劫难,包括造成许多重要神祇 死亡的大战(奥丁、索尔、弗雷、海姆达尔、霜巨人、洛基等) ,无数的自然浩劫,之后整个世 界沉没在水底。然而最终世界复苏了,存活的神与两名人类重新建立了新世界。这是北欧神话 极重要的一部份,也是许多学术研讨与理论的主题。同时又是指理查德?瓦格纳的同名歌剧。 http://www.ecocn.org/thread-51416-1-1.html 译者:zhanyisky [2011.06.23]A New York state of mind 纽约心理咨文 Urban brains behave differently from rural ones 人脑表现,城乡有别 Jun 23rd 2011 | from the print edition Shelley contemplates urban decay 沉思城市衰落的雪莱 “HELL is a city much like London,”opined Percy Bysshe Shelley in 1819. Modern academics agree. Last year Dutch researchers showed that city dwellers have a 21% higher risk of developing anxiety disorders than do their calmer rural countrymen, and a 39% higher risk of developing mood disorders. But exactly how the inner workings of the urban and rural minds cause this difference has remained obscure—until now. A study just published in Nature by Andreas Meyer-Lindenberg of the University of Heidelberg and his colleagues has used a scanning technique called functional magnetic-resonance imaging (fMRI) to examine the brains of city dwellers and country bumpkins when they are under stress. 1819 年,波比?雪莱认为“伦敦市更像一个地狱” 。现代学者同意这个观点。荷兰研究人员研究 表明,城市居民相对稳定的乡村同胞来说,得焦虑症的概率高出 21%,得心理障碍疾病的概率 高出 39%。但是直到现在,城市人和乡村人大脑器官反应是如何引起这方面差异的确切原因, 仍旧是不清楚的。最近海德尔堡大学的学者安德烈亚斯?迈耶-林登贝格和他的同事在《自然》 杂志上发表了一个研究,该研究使用称为机能性磁共振图像的扫描技术测试了在压力下城市居 民和乡村居民的大脑活动情况。 In Dr Meyer-Lindenberg’s first experiment, participants lying with their heads in a scanner took maths tests that they were doomed to fail (the researchers had designed success rates to be just 25-40%). To make the experience still more humiliating, the team provided negative feedback through headphones, all the while checking participants for indications of stress, such as high blood pressure. 在迈耶-林登贝格博士的第一个实验中,参与者躺着,头枕在一个扫描器上接受他们注定要失败 的数学测验(研究人员仅仅把成功率设为 25%-40%) 。为了使这活动更加具有羞辱性,研究人 员通过耳机给予参与者消极的反馈,并全程检测参与者表现出的压力反应,如高血压。

The urbanites’ general mental health did not differ from that of their provincial counterparts. However, their brains dealt with the stress imposed by the experimenters in different ways. These differences were noticeable in two regions: the amygdalas and the perigenual anterior cingulate cortex (pACC). The amygdalas are a pair of structures, one in each cerebral hemisphere, that are found deep inside the brain and are responsible for assessing threats and generating the emotion of fear. The pACC is part of the cerebral cortex (again, found in both hemispheres) that regulates the amygdalas. 都市人总体的心理健康状况与同他们相对应的乡下人没有什么差别。然而,对于实验者施予的 压力,其大脑的应对方式有所不同。这些差别在两个区域特别明显:杏仁核和扣带皮层部位。 杏仁核有一对,大脑左右半球各一个,它在大脑深处,与判断威胁和产生害怕情绪有关。扣带 皮层部位是大脑皮层的一部位(也在两个大脑半球) ,它对杏仁核进行调节。 People living in the countryside had the lowest levels of activity in their amygdalas. Those living in towns had higher levels. City dwellers had the highest. Not that surprising, to those of a Shelleyesque disposition. In the case of the pACC, however, what mattered was not where someone was living now, but where he or she was brought up. The more urban a person’ childhood, the more active his pACC, s regardless of where he was dwelling at the time of the experiment. 生活在乡村的人杏仁核活动水平最低。生活在城镇的人的杏仁核活动水平高些。城市居民杏仁 核活动水平最高。对于雪莱式性情的人,这没有什么奇怪的。然而,在扣带皮层部位情况下, 重要的不是一个人现在生活在哪,而是他或他在那长大。不管实验的时候他住在哪,只要一个 人的童年时期生活在城市的时间越长,他的扣带皮层部位就越活跃。 The amygdalas thus seem to respond to the here-and-now whereas the pACC is programmed early on, and does not react in the same, flexible way as the amygdalas. Second-to-second changes in its activity might, though, be expected to be correlated with changes in the amygdalas, because of its role in regulating them. fMRI allows such correlations to be measured. 虽然扣带皮层部位的活动受人在早年成长时期就已经编好的程序控制,但似乎杏仁核才是此时 此刻的及时回应,扣带皮层部位并没有像杏仁核那样做出相同,柔性的反应。扣带皮层部位接 下来每秒钟活动的变化, 也许与杏仁核的变化有关, 因为扣带皮层部位控制着杏仁核。 fMRI 显 示了这样的测量关系。 In the cases of those brought up in the countryside, regardless of where they now live, the correlations were as expected. For those brought up in cities, however, these correlations broke down. The regulatory mechanism of the native urbanite, in other words, seems to be out of kilter. Further evidence, then, for Shelley’s point of view. Moreover, it is also known that the pACC-amygdala link is often out of kilter in schizophrenia, and that schizophrenia is more common among city dwellers than country folk. Dr Meyer-Lindenberg is careful not to claim that his results show the cause of this connection. But they might. 在乡村长大的人,不管他们现在住在那,这种相互关系都是不出所料的。然而对于在城市长大 的人来说,这种相互关系已经不存在了。换句话说,土生土长的城市人的调控机制似乎脱离了 平衡。这是证明雪莱观点的更近一步的证据。而且,众所周知,在精神分裂症病人中,扣带皮 层-杏仁核的联系是脱离平衡的,和乡村居民相比,精神分裂症在城市居民中更普遍。迈耶-林 登贝格博士很慎重,没有声称他的研究结果表明了这种关联是因果关系。但是,他们也许是因 果关系。 Dr Meyer-Lindenberg and his team conducted several subsequent experiments to check their findings. They asked participants to complete more maths tests—and also tests in which they mentally rotated an object—while investigators chided them about their performance. The results matched those of the first test. They also studied another group of volunteers, who were given stress-free tasks to complete. These experiments showed no activity in either the amygdalas or the pACC, suggesting that the earlier results were indeed the result of social stress rather than mental exertion.

迈耶-林登贝格博士和他的研究组随后进行了几个实验以证他们的结论。 他们要求参与者完成更 多的数学测验,还有些测试需要参与者在心里转动物体。所有这些都是在研究者斥责参与者表 现的情况下进行的。结果和第一次测试的一样。他们也测试了另一组志愿者,让他们完成一些 无压力任务。这些实验表明杏仁核或扣带皮层部位没有活动,这表明之前的结果的确是社会压 力的结果,而不是心力疲惫导致的。 As is usually the case in studies of this sort, the sample size was small (and therefore not as robust as might be desirable) and the result showed an association, rather than a definite, causal relationship. That association is, nevertheless, interesting. Living in cities brings many benefits, but Dr Meyer-Lindenberg’s work suggests that Shelley and his fellow Romantics had at least half a point. 这类研究常是如此,样本量小(因此没有我们想要的那个可靠) ,研究结论表明的仅是一种相关 关系,而不是一个确定的,因果关系。不过,这种联系是令人感兴趣的。生活在城市得到很多 好处,但是迈耶-林登贝格博士的研究表明雪莱和他的浪漫主义同仁至少有一半是对的。 http://www.ecocn.org/thread-50982-1-1.html 译者:aihui2003 [2011.06.22]Mapping Arctic sea-ice thickness:On thin ice?在薄冰上? Mapping Arctic sea-ice thickness 绘制北冰洋海冰厚度地图 On thin ice?在薄冰上? Jun 22nd 2011, 16:14 by P.K. Satellite mapping reveals the thickness of Arctic sea-ice 卫星测图揭示出北冰洋海冰的厚度 THE first map of Arctic sea-ice thickness has been produced using data from CryoSat-2 (pictured), a satellite launched by the European Space Agency (ESA) in April last year. The map, unveiled yesterday at the Paris Air and Space Show, shows both the extent, and thickness in metres, of sea ice in the Arctic region. 第一幅北冰洋海冰厚度地图已经制作完成, 使用的数据来自欧洲太空总署(ESA)去年四月发射的 CryoSat-2 卫星(见图片) 。这幅地图在昨天的巴黎航空航天展上公布于众;地图上既显示出北 冰洋地区海冰的范围,也显示出其厚度(以“米”来计量) 。 Images showing the extent of sea ice have been available for decades. The National Snow and Ice Data Centre tracks the Arctic ice-shelf using tools developed by NASA, and has produced monthly satellite maps going back to 1979. But this is the first map to address the thickness of the ice as well as its extent. 显示海冰范围的地图已经出现了几十年。美国冰雪数据中心(National Snow and Ice Data Centre) 使用 NASA 开发的工具跟踪观察北冰洋的冰架,并从 1979 年以来每个月都制作卫星地图。但 是这次是第一幅既有范围,又有厚度的地图。 The extent of the ice cap varies seasonally, and in September 2007 it reached its smallest recorded size. But to understand exactly how climate change is affecting the polar regions, the thickness of the ice needs to be known too. 冰盖的范围依季节变化,2007 年 9 月到达有记录的最小面积。但是,要准确了解季节的变化怎 样影响极地地区,同时还要知道冰的厚度。 The project to map the ice's thickness, proposed in 1998 by Duncan Wingham and his team at University College London, relies on data collected by the ESA's satellite (the second of its kind, after

the original was lost in a launch failure in 2005) from an altitude of 700km. The satellite uses radar to measure its altitude above the ice sheet. Because the satellite's altitude above sea level is known, the thickness of the ice above sea level can then be determined, allowing the overall thickness of the ice to be calculated. 这个绘制冰层厚度地图的项目在 1998 年由伦敦大学学院(University College)的邓肯?温厄姆 (Duncan Wingham)和他的团队提出,所依赖的数据由 ESA 的卫星(第二个此类卫星,原先那个 在 2005 年一次发射失败中不见踪影)从 700 千米的海拔高度收集而来。卫星用雷达测定卫星从 冰层顶部算起的高度。因为该卫星的海拔高度已知,于是就能够确定海平面以上的冰层厚度, 从而可以计算出冰的总厚度。 The first map, shown below, shows the average thickness of the sea-ice in January and February this year, as the ice approached its annual maximum. But the real value of the project will be the ability to map changes in the thickness of the sea ice over time, as further maps are produced. 下方的第一幅地图显示了今年一、二月海冰的平均厚度,当时正值冰盖到达每年最厚的时候。 但是该项目的真正价值是,随着更多地图的出炉,可以绘制海冰厚度随时间变化的地图。 http://ecocn.org/thread-50783-1-1.html 译者:eastx [2011.06.16]Bits and bob 别拿比特不当钱 Digital currencies 数字货币 Bitcoin has got geeks excited. What about economists? 比特币让极客兴奋不已。经济学家怎么看? Jun 16th 2011 | from the print edition MILTON FRIEDMAN famously called for the abolition of the Federal Reserve, which he thought ought to be replaced by an automated system that would increase the money supply at a predetermined rate and so keep a lid on inflation. A virtual version of this now exists. 米尔顿?弗里德曼有个著名的论断——他呼吁取消美联储, 替之以按事先决定的增长率供给的自 动系统,以此来抑制通货膨胀。如今,这一系统的虚拟版出现了。 Bitcoin, the world’s “first decentralised digital currency”, was devised in 2009 by a programmer called Satoshi Nakomoto (thought not to be his, or her, real name). Unlike other virtual monies, such as Second Life’s Linden dollars, it can be used to purchase real-world goods and services. And rather than relying on a central monetary authority to monitor transactions and manage the money supply, Bitcoin is run by a peer-to-peer network (akin to file-sharing services like BitTorrent). 比特币——世界上首种 “去央行化货币” ——于 2009 年提出, 首倡者是一位叫做中本聪 (Satoshi Nakomoto,这个名字可能不是真名)的程序员。与其他虚拟货币(比如林登币)不同的是,比 特币可用于购买真实世界中的商品和服务。比特币不需要依赖中央货币当局来监控交易和管理 货币供给,而是在一个点对点网络中运行(类似于文件共享的 BitTorrent) 。 This absence of a central monetary authority to control the money supply is what many find exciting about Bitcoins. Quantitative easing is not possible. Coins are created at a constant average rate to reward users who give up some of their computing power to track and validate transactions that are made with the currency*. 没有中央货币当局控制货币供给正是许多人对比特币感到欢欣鼓舞的原因。比特币的世界不存 在量化宽松,比特币以恒定的平均速度创造,用来奖励牺牲计算能力来跟踪和确认比特币交易 的用户。 The rate at which Bitcoins are minted is designed to mimic the extraction of minerals. As the most accessible resources are exhausted, the supply dwindles. The Bitcoin supply increases at a rate of 300

coins every hour on average at the moment, but every four years that rate will fall by a half. The total supply will level off at 21m coins or so around 2030. That appeals to those who distrust paper currencies. 比特币的铸造速度模拟了矿产开发。随着最容易获得的资源逐渐枯竭,比特币的供给也会减缓。 现在,比特币的供给量大概是每小时 300 枚,但每隔四年,增速都会减少一半。供给潜力大概 会在 2030 年告罄,总供给量为 2100 万枚。这对于那些不信任纸币的人来说颇具吸引力。 The currency can be used by anyone (unlike credit cards), anywhere. Transaction costs are also likely to be lower than those for traditional payment systems, though they are not zero. Some are reflected in the hardware and energy used to police the system. Some creep in whenever those who have no wish to mine Bitcoins themselves purchase them for dollars, euros and other currencies at specialised websites such as Mt Gox. 比特币可以被任何人(这点不同于信用卡)在任何地点使用。交易成本也可能低于传统支付系 统,但还不能做到零成本。一些费用体现在维护系统所需的硬件和能源上。如果你不想使用比 特币,可以在 Mt Gox 等专门网站上将它们兑换为美元、欧元和其他货币,但兑换过程也要消耗 一些比特币。 Critics point out that Bitcoins suffer the same flaws as other metal-based currencies with finite supply. Many economists put at least part of the blame for the severity of the Depression on the strictures of the gold standard, as countries clung to gold and put off stimulus. In the case of Bitcoins, some think that decreasing the rate of money creation over time will entail deflation. People who own Bitcoins will prefer to hold on to them rather than spend them, because deflation will mean that their stash of Bitcoins will buy more real goods in the future than now. 批评者指出,比特币与其他基于金属的货币一样有存在供给极限的缺陷。许多经济学家认为, 大萧条之所以严重,至少一部分是由于金本位的束缚造成的,在金本位制度下,各国只能钉住 黄金,因而错失了实施刺激计划的时机。一些人认为,在比特币的世界中,货币创造速度逐渐 减缓会造成通缩。持有比特币的人更愿意把它们藏起来,而不是花掉,因为通缩意味着囤积起 来的比特币能够在未来买到更多的真实商品。 That assumes that Bitcoins are something people are happy to take in return for goods, or at least to exchange for paper money. As wild swings in their dollar price have demonstrated, the currency is young and illiquid—only 6.5m units are currently in circulation among some 10,000 users (including several hundred merchants who accept payment in Bitcoins). 这隐含了一个前提,即比特币是人们乐意持有以换取商品的东西,再不济也可以用来换取纸币。 而比特币的美元价格波动很大,表明这种时日尚浅的货币流动性很差——目前,货币总量只有 650 万枚,用户也不过 1 万人(其中还包括数百家接受比特币支付的商户) 。 Attracting enough users to smooth such volatility seems unlikely in the foreseeable future. Established fiat currencies—ones where bills and coins, or their digital versions, get their value by dint of regulation or law—are underwritten by the state which is, in principle at least, answerable to its citizens. Bitcoin, by contrast, is a community currency that requires self-policing on the part of its users. Most people would rather devolve this sort of responsibility to the authorities. 吸引足够多的用户以平息剧烈波动在可预见的未来都是不可能的任务。现有的法币——用法规 和法律赋予价值的纸币、硬币及其电子形式——有政府背书,而公民至少在原则上可以问责政 府。与此不同的是,比特币是一种社区货币,能否有效全靠用户自觉。大部分人宁可将这一责 任转交给当局。 Moreover, Bitcoin may be useful for trading goods and services but it does not yet allow borrowing or lending. In the physical world this happens through financial intermediaries: you put money in a bank, and someone else borrows it. A virtual Bitcoin bank might spring up but that would create problems of

its own. How would a saver be assured that he would get his money back when he wants? If a bank got into trouble, who would be the lender of last resort? The usual answer is a central bank: exactly what Bitcoin is trying to avoid. Bitcoin is technically sophisticated. As a monetary system, it looks primitive. 此外,比特币可以用来交易商品和服务,但不能用于借贷。在真实世界中,借贷通过金融中介 发生:你将钱存进银行,然后再被其他人借走。虚拟的比特币银行可能也会出现,但会有其自 身的问题。如何保证储户可以在想取回存款时拿回自己的钱?如果某银行陷入危机,谁来充当 最后贷款人?常规的答案是中央银行,而这正是比特币所试图绕过的东西。从技术上说,比特 币相当成熟。但作为货币体系,比特币仍然相当原始。 http://ecocn.org/thread-50267-1-1.html 译者:majer [2011.06.16]Metabolic syndrome: A slim chance 机会渺茫 Metabolic syndrome 代谢综合症 A slim chance 机会渺茫 Insulin’s role in obesity 胰岛素在肥胖的作用 Jun 16th 2011 | from the print edition ONE of the horrors of obesity is that once it takes hold it is fiendishly difficult to reverse. The overweight often find it impossible to avoid eating to excess, and so the kilos continue to pile on. Judgmental observers of this pattern might simply blame lack of willpower—and it is certainly true that willpower in prodigious quantities is needed to climb back up the slope to svelteness. But understanding why that slope is so slippery might help the sinner who wishes to repent, and such understanding may have come a little closer this week with the publication in Cell Metabolism of a study by Jens Brüning, of the Max Planck Institute for Neurological Research in Cologne, and his colleagues. 肥胖让人恐怖的一个地方是,一旦“肥胖”站稳脚就像恶魔般难以击倒。超重的人往往无法避 免饮食过量,所以体重继续上升。喜欢妄下结论的旁观者对于这一案例也许简单地将其归咎于 为缺乏意志力——当然,攀登通往“苗条”顶峰的斜坡需要惊人的意志力。但弄懂为什么斜坡 如此的湿滑可能对愿意悔改的罪人有所帮助,本周,随着由马克斯?普朗克精神病学研究所的 Jens Brüning 和他的同事完成的《细胞——代谢》研究的发表,这种认识也许会与我们更近了。 Obesity is one manifestation of a group of symptoms known as metabolic syndrome. Another symptom is late-onset diabetes. Unlike its cousin early-onset diabetes, which is caused by a lack of insulin, the late-onset variety results from resistance, in those cells that should react to the hormone, to insulin that is in fact available. This has all sorts of bad effects, since insulin regulates the absorption and release of sugar and, though late-onset diabetes is not quite the killer that the early-onset variety is, the result is still pretty nasty. 肥胖是称之为代谢综合征的一组症状群的一个症状表现。 (该综合征的)另一个症状则是晚发性 糖尿病。 它跟其类似的(cousin)疾病,即早发性糖尿病,不一样。 后者是由于身体里缺乏胰 岛素而引起。而前者则是因为本应当对胰岛这种激素(hormone)作回应的细胞,对于身体内事 实上存在的胰岛素却发生了阻抗不起回应了。这样会产生各种各样的不良影响,因为胰岛素能 调节糖的吸收和释放,尽管迟发性糖尿病是不像早发性症候群那样有杀伤力,其影响还是相当 令人讨厌的。

Dr Brüning found himself wondering if such resistance extended to insulin-regulated cells in the brain, and whether that might be an explanation for the inappropriate appetites of the obese. To find out, he looked at the behaviour of such cells in the part of the midbrain responsible for producing the sensation of pleasure. Dr Brünin 想知道这种阻抗不回应是不是也延伸到调节胰岛素的脑细胞, 从而解释何以肥胖症患 者常有食欲异常。为了寻找答案,他观察那些位于中脑负责生产满足感的细胞的行为。 Genetic technology allows genes, and thus the proteins those genes encode, to be knocked out of individual mice. Dr Brüning knocked out the insulin-receptor gene that is expressed in midbrain cells. Specifically, the cells in question were the ones responsible for making the precursors of dopamine, a signalling molecule with a well-established role in generating the sensation of pleasure. He tested cells from both sorts of mice to make sure that those with the receptor gene knocked out really were less active than the others in the presence of insulin (they were) and then monitored the feeding patterns of the two types of mice. 基因技术可以从个别老鼠中剔除基因和基因编码的蛋白质。Dr Brüning 剔除在中脑细胞中表示 胰岛素受体的基因。具体来说,有关的细胞是负责制造多巴胺的原始化合物,多巴胺是在产生 满足感中充当重要角色的信号分子。他测试了各只老鼠的细胞以确保那些剔除受体基因的老鼠 确实比其他老鼠对胰岛素(本身)较为不敏感,然后监测两种类型老鼠的喂养方式。 The upshot was that the knockout mice ate considerably more than the normal animals. At six weeks of age, the onset of adulthood, the average meal size of a male mouse whose insulin-reception system had been damaged was 3.2 grams of rodent chow. A male whose insulin receptors were normal ate 2.8 grams. Females showed a similar pattern, eating 3.1 and 2.7 grams respectively. And this increased food intake did, indeed, lead to obesity. The bodies of adult knockout males were 23% fat. Those of the control males were only 18% fat. (Corresponding figures for females were 12% and 10%, since females are the slimmer sex in mice.) 其结果是,基因敲除基因的老鼠吃比正常老鼠更多。在 6 周,成年之初,一只胰岛素受体系统 受损的雄性老鼠的每餐平均食量为 3.2 克的啮齿动物食物。而胰岛素受体系统正常的雄性老鼠 只吃 2.8 克。雌性老鼠与此情况相似,分别吃 3.1 和 2.7 克。实际上,食物摄入量的增加导致肥 胖。剔除基因的成年雄性老鼠的身体的 23%都是脂肪。那些正常的雄性老鼠只有 18%的脂肪。 (雌性老鼠的相应数字分别为 12%和 10%,因为雌性是在老鼠中苗条的性别。 ) By themselves, these results do not prove that insulin-resistance is the explanation for the tendency of the already-lardy to eat too much. Mice are not men (though the similarity is closer than many would like to think), and a genetic knockout is not the same as naturally acquired insulin resistance. Moreover, as sharp-eyed readers will have noticed, there is something odd about a mechanism that increases the appetite by reducing the production of a chemical which causes the sensation of pleasure. Clearly, a lot more work is needed to unpick the details. But if Dr Brüning is on the right track, the slippery slope that leads to obesity may eventually get a little easier to climb back up. 单凭这些, 这些实验结果并不证明胰岛素抵抗是对肥胖者吃得多倾向的解释。 老鼠并不是人 (虽 然两者间的相似度比很多人想象的要高) ,基因剔除是不同于自然获得抗胰岛素性。此外,目光 敏锐的读者可能已经注意到,通过减少引起满足感的化学成分以致食欲增加的机制存在一些问 题。很明显,需要更多的研究来剖析每个细节。但如果 Dr Brüning 走对路了,通往“苗条”顶 峰的那湿滑斜坡就变得容易攀登了。 http://ecocn.org/thread-50252-1-1.html 译者:710802847 [2011.06.16]Happy customers, no profits 客户欢喜,利润没影 India’s mobile industry is magnificent but also a mess 印度移动通讯业既表现出色,又乱象丛生 Jun 16th 2011 | DELHI | from the print edition

IN A Vodafone shop in Mumbai earlier this year, you might have been forgiven for thinking that one of the great clichés about India wasn’t true. The national cricket team was playing Pakistan; the biggest grudge match in any sport, anywhere. Yet the mobile-phone store was still bustling, with customers debating calling plans, not leg-before-wicket decisions. 关于印度的老话不少,其中一句称:印巴板球比赛堪称全世界积怨最深的运动。但今年初,身 处孟买一家沃达丰店,你要觉得这话并不靠谱,也情有可原。那当口,印度国家板球队与巴基 斯坦激战正酣。然而这家手机店依旧人头攒动,客户争论的,并非比赛中的违规裁决,而是手 机通话计划。 A visit the next day corrected the impression that Indians have lost interest in cricket. Without a match, the shop’s tempo had roared back to its normal level: that of a siege, with a mob baying for itemised billing and BlackBerrys. 上述情形让人觉得:印度对板球没兴趣了,但次日的探访纠正了这一印象。没有比赛,该店又 回到了正常水平,一副喧闹状态:暴徒一样的民众把店铺围得水泄不通,高声争论着账单明细, 嚷嚷着要买黑莓手机。 India has almost 600m active mobile-phone subscribers—about one for every two people, including babies. It also has among the lowest prices anywhere, and a home-grown, world-class operator, Bharti Airtel. India’s mobile-phone industry inspires great hopes. Many see it as vital to the nation’s development: a way of bypassing obstructive bureaucrats and bringing services to the masses, from mobile banking to accurate crop prices. Already a third of subscribers are in rural areas. Mobiles bring the whole world to villages in Uttar Pradesh. 印度活跃手机用户近 6 亿,算上婴儿在内,大约每两人就有一人使用手机。其资费也位居全球 最低地区之列,还拥有一家土生土长的世界级运营商巴蒂电信(Bharti Airtel) 。因此,印度移动 电话业被寄予厚望。许多人认为其对国家发展至关重要,可绕过碍手碍脚的官僚体制,为大众 提供从银行业务到农作物准确价格等诸多服务。现已有三分之一手机用户位于印农村地区。手 机为印北方省各村庄展现了整个世界。 Yet frustration grips many mobile executives. After new 2G licence awards by the government in 2008 (now the subject of a huge corruption probe), India has more than ten operators in most of its 22 geographical licence areas. Most countries have only three to six. Indian firms must typically make do with slugs of spectrum half the size of those issued to peers in less crowded countries. As a result, claim executives and investors, returns on capital stink like the drains in Kolkata. 然而众多移动运营商高管却深感挫折。2008 年,印度政府颁发了新的 2G 牌照(这事现在成了 一桩腐败大案的调查主题) 。此后,22 个获颁拍照的地区,大部分拥有超过 10 个运营商。而多 数国家只有 3~6 个。如此一来,印度移动运营商所分频谱通常仅有那些运营商较少国家同行的 一半,必须设法应对这一窘况。结果,持有这些公司股票的高管及投资者,其资本收益回报率 就像加尔各答的下水道,臭不可闻。 Nice for nattering nabobs 印度话痨有福了 Hyper-competition is good for natterers, of course: prices have fallen to a level the poor can afford. Firms have become leaner, too. Bharti outsources furiously. Most companies share radio towers and have learned how to compress traffic. 当然,超竞争对那些爱絮叨的人有好处:价格已降至穷人可承受的水平。企业也越发精益高效。 巴蒂电信疯狂外包业务。多数公司共用无线发射塔,还学会了如何压缩通讯流量。 Yet the industry is right to fret about returns. Only one of the big four firms was close to recouping its cost of capital last year (see chart 1), as the price war hit margins and an expensive 3G spectrum

auction in 2010 bloated balance-sheets. Vodafone has a rich parent company but the others are now uncomfortably indebted. Middle-sized operators, meanwhile, are thought to be bleeding badly. Of the small fry, only two disclose figures: Uninor, run by Telenor, a Norwegian firm; and Russian-backed Sistema. Together they lost almost $2 billion of cashflow last year. Both say they are in India for the long haul. 然而,移动通讯业纠结于收益并没错。去年,印度四大移动运营商因价格战损及利润,且 3G 频谱拍卖价过高导致资产负债表膨胀,仅有一家近似收回了资本成本(见图 1) 。沃达丰的母公 司财大气粗,但其他运营商目前则负债累累,处境艰难。中型运营商,其时据称赤字不断,情 况严重。而那些小公司,仅有两家披露了财务数字:挪威 Telenor 公司运营的 Uninor,还有具有 俄罗斯背景的系统金融公司(Sistema) 。两者去年共计损失了近 20 亿美元现金流,都宣称在印 度赚钱是场持久战。 Weak returns are bearable if the market grows and the rules are clear. Long-term growth seems certain, but India’s spectrum regime, once admired, is now an embarrassment. A roundtable with the new telecoms minister and mobile-phone executives in March revealed a fog of confusion about vital issues: the fees on existing spectrum, the terms on which old licences are renewed and corruptly awarded ones relinquished (if at all), new spectrum grants and the rules on mergers and acquisitions. It is also unclear whether non-voice 4G licences, originally intended for data only, some of which are in the hands of Mukesh Ambani, India’s richest man, will have their terms tweaked to allow voice services, creating even more new entrants into the mobile market. 要是印度移动通讯市场不断成长,规则明确,那么收益疲软尚可容忍。从长远来看,发展确凿 无疑,但印度一度备受好评的频谱分配体制,而今却成了一大尴尬。今年 3 月,印度新任电信 部长与各移动运营商高管参加的一次圆桌会议,显示一些重要问题仍然云里雾里模糊不清:如 现有频谱收费,旧牌照更新条件及放弃行贿所获牌照(若真有人肯放弃的话)的条件,新频谱 授权以及移动运营商并购规则等。而未含音频业务的 4G 牌照是否需要略微调整条款以允许开 展音频业务的问题,也未明确,这一点会促使更多新玩家涉足移动通讯市场。4G 牌照原本只是 为数据业务准备的,其中一些现掌握在印度首富 Mukesh Ambani 手中。 The way India divvies up spectrum is unfair and erratic, which deters investment. It is also wasteful. About 30% of India’s granted spectrum used for GSM (the main flavour of 2G) is in the hands of operators with a collective market share (by revenue) of about 3%, reckons Deepti Chaturvedi of CLSA, a broker. With spectrum tight, big operators say they must build denser networks than they might otherwise. One boss thinks the extra cost for the industry is billions of dollars a year. 印度的频谱分配方式既不公平也反复多变,抑制了投资,也造成了浪费。根据法国里昂证券公 司(CLSA)的一位股票经纪人 Deepti Chaturvedi 估计,印度授权的频谱约 30%用于 GSM(2G 的主要特性) ,而按收入来算,掌握该系统的运营商联合市场份额仅有约 3%。而由于频谱资源 有限,大移动运营商称必须构建更为密集的网络,而他们本来不打算这么做。一位老板认为, 移动通讯业的额外成本每年高达数十亿美元。 The auction of spectrum for 3G services in 2010 was clean and cleverly designed. However, it produced a stupid outcome. Four or five slots were sold in each geographic area—far fewer than the number of existing players. Only about 60% of existing 2G customers will be able to get 3G from their existing provider. If they want a fast data connection, they will have to dump their current operator or hope it can piggyback off a rival’s network. In short, India has encouraged lots of firms to enter the voice market and then ensured that many of them cannot offer the latest technology. At the same time, it makes it hard for the losers to sell up and get out. 去年针对 3G 业务的频谱拍卖正大光明,设计聪明,结果却很蠢。每个地域售出的空白频谱有 4 或 5 个,远少于目前的运营商玩家数。现有 2G 客户仅约 60%能从其当前的供应商那获得 3G 服 务。他们若想用上高速数据连接业务,就得放弃现在的运营商,不然就得期望它与对手的网络

相连。总之,印度先是鼓励众多公司进入音频业务市场,然后又确保其中许多公司不能提供最 新技术,同时又让那些失败企业很难卖掉资产,净身出户。 If the market is too fragmented (see chart 2), consolidation is the only plausible cure. From Brazil to America, places with mosaics of technologies, operators and regional licences have cleaned themselves up. In India this process may not correct past injustices, but by allowing unviable firms and their spectrum to be acquired, a scarce resource could be allocated more efficiently and customers could be saved the annoyance of having their carrier go bust. Most executives expect a cull. After the scandal erupted last year, says one boss, banks cut off credit to the industry, making life hardest for the small firms that have yet to break even. The big operators have stepped back from price cuts, allowing industry revenues, which had stalled despite the boom in customers, to grow again. 倘若移动通讯市场太过零散(见图 2) ,合并便是唯一合理的矫正方式。从巴西到美国,那些由 各种移动通讯技术、多家运营商及各种地区牌照组成的地方,都自个进行了整肃清理。而在印 度,此过程或许不会纠正以往的不公平,但通过允许并购那些无法独立生存的企业、瓜分其频 谱,稀缺资源或能有效配置,而客户也不用操心自己的移动通讯服务提供商完蛋。大多数高管 预计本行业会来场优胜劣汰。一位老板称,去年丑闻爆发后,银行停止贷款给移动通讯业,这 让那些尚未达到收支平衡的小企业,日子艰难无比。大运营商暂时放弃降价,使得客户虽蓬勃 发展但却停滞不前的行业收入,再度增长。 But the industry cannot rationalise by itself: the state controls the supply of licences and spectrum. Will it enact sensible changes? Some worry that the 2G scandal could tar more executives and politicians, paralysing reform. That could damage the Indian economy. Still, the noises from Delhi are mildly encouraging. As the telecoms minister put it recently, using another cliché that happens to be true, “we cannot kill the goose that laid the golden egg.” 但光凭自身,印度移动通讯业并不能合理改革:牌照发放与频谱配给可由国家控制着。如此怎 能发生切实改变?一些人担心,2G 牌照发放丑闻玷污了太多运营商高管及政治家的名声,令改 革动惮不得,会损害印度经济。然而,德里来的传闻好歹有点振奋人心,正如印度电信部长近 日所言, “不能杀鸡取卵。 这句老话用得恰如其分。 ” http://ecocn.org/thread-49972-1-1.html 译者:zhanyisky [2011.06.16]Nothing new under heaven 天下之事,古已有之 What philosophers thought when China was the world and how it can help China now 昔日中国一统天下之时,哲学家们的所思所想,及其对今日中国的裨益 Jun 16th 2011 | from the print edition WHEN Henry Kissinger was paying his pioneering visits to China in the early 1970s, the country was in the grip of a campaign to criticise both Lin Biao, a recently dead and disgraced Communist leader, and Confucius. As was later remarked, it was as if the American press were vilifying Richard Nixon and Aristotle. But China’s own past—the 5,000 years of history of which its leaders often like to remind foreign interlocutors—is a constant presence in its domestic politics and its view of the world. 当亨利?基辛格在 1970 年代初开启访华的破冰之旅的时候,这个国家尚沉浸在批林批孔运动之 中(林彪是一位蒙羞的共产党领导人,刚辞世不久) 。就像后来评论所指出的那样,这种情况就 好像美国报刊在诽谤尼克松和亚里士多德。但是中国自己的历史——其领导人在谈话中总是喜 欢向外国人提及的 5000 年历史——在中国国内政治和中国对世界的看法中, 一直发挥着恒久不 衰的影响。 Yet China’s recent rise has taken place in a world organised along principles devised elsewhere, by foreign parvenus. Many Chinese chafe at the common Western notion that multiparty democracy is the form of government towards which all other systems evolve. But some scholars also resent another

European invention: the nation-state, the basis of modern diplomacy. For years they have struggled to develop a distinctively Chinese theory of international relations. This is almost a matter of national pride, even chauvinism: “As a rapidly rising major power, it is unacceptable that China does not have its own theory,” wrote Qiu Yanping, a senior Communist Party man, in an article in 2009. 而近些年来中国崛起所处的大背景却是一个遵循外国新贵所创设的原则而建构起来的世界。西 方人通常认为,多党民主是所有其他制度最终要逐渐发展到的政体,而许多中国人却对这种观 念颇为恼怒。但一些学者也对欧洲另一项创造深表不安,那就是民族国家——现代外交的基石。 多年以来,他们一直殚精竭虑地阐发中国特色的国际关系理论,毕竟这几乎事关民族自豪感, 甚至民族沙文主义: “中国作为一个快速崛起的大国,绝不能没有自己的理论” ,2009 年时一个 名叫邱延平(音译)的共产党高官在一篇文章中如是写道。 So attempts to apply precepts devised by ancient Chinese philosophers to the modern world are in vogue. One popular revival is the notion of tianxia, or “all under heaven”. This dates back to the golden age of classical Chinese philosophy—of Confucius, Mencius, Laozi and the rest—in the “warring states” period before China’ unification in 221BC under the first Qin emperor. Tianxia is s widely understood as a unified world dominated by one country (call it the “middle kingdom”, perhaps), to which neighbours and those beyond look for guidance and pay tribute. 因此将中国古代哲学家创设的原则应用于现代世界之风气蔚为一时。时下有个词正重新流行起 来,它叫做“天下” ,或者叫“普天之下” 。这个词要回溯到公元前 221 年中国第一个皇帝—— 秦始皇统一中国之前的战国时期,在那一时期以孔子、孟子、老子以及其他诸子为代表中国古 典哲学迎来黄金时代。 “天下”被广泛理解为由一个国家(可能称之为“中央王国” )所主导的 统一世界,在这一世界中,该国的邻国和远邦要向它寻求指导和进行朝贡。 According to Zhao Tingyang, a Beijing-based philosopher known for his book of a few years ago on tianxia, the concept is based on the vision of an ancient sage-king, the Duke of Zhou. The duke realised that for Zhou, a small state, to exercise sway over other feuding states, he could not rely on force of arms. It had instead to draw on its own moral and political example. As Mr Zhao updates this, tianxia is a Utopian vision of universal harmony, unattainable, he concedes, for 200-300 years, where everybody opts into a system of global government. 北京的赵汀阳(音译)是一个哲学家,以其几年前所写的一部关于天下的书而闻名遐迩,他表 示“天下”这个概念是以古代一位圣君——周公的愿景为基础的。周公认识到,对于周国这个 小国来说,要想统治其他番邦,就不能诉诸武力,而必须转而求之于自己在道德和政治上的表 率作用。 “天下” 如果用赵翻译成的现代术语来说,就是一种普遍和谐的乌托邦式的愿景,他 承认 200-300 年内是实现不了的, 因为现在人人都选择一种全球政府的体系。 Mr Zhao, a courteous, gentle and rather otherworldly scholar, is no tub-thumping Chinese nationalist. There is now no need, he says, as there was in the Duke of Zhou’s day, for one predominant state. He is not advocating a world order led by China, but a system of equality. Nor is there to be compulsion. Tianxia is a voluntary choice. It is also, self-evidently, a distant dream rather than a manifesto for practical politics. 赵是一位彬彬有礼、温文尔雅和颇为超凡脱俗的学者,而不是一个慷慨激昂的中国民族主义者。 他说,就像周公时期一样,当今的国家也没有必要追求主导地位。他所主张的并不是一个中国 所主导的世界秩序,而是一个平等的制度, “天下”是自愿的选择,没有强迫。对于权术政治 来说,这只是一个遥远的梦想,而不是一个宣言,这当然是不言而喻的。 It has, however, made an impression. Some even see its influence in the ideal adopted by China’s Communist Party leader, Hu Jintao, whom Mr Zhao has never met, of a “harmonious society”. In popular culture, tianxia loomed large in “Hero”, an epic martial-arts film by Zhang Yimou, one of

China’s best-known directors, set at the time of the Qin unification and released in 2002. Some also heard tianxia echoes in the slogan for the 2008 Beijing Olympics: “One world, one dream”. 然而“天下”这个概念也让人眼前一亮,一些人甚至在中共领导人胡锦涛(赵与他从未谋面) 所倡导的“和谐社会”理想中,察觉到它的影子。在流行文化中, “天下”的概念在张艺谋(中 国最著名的导演之一)史诗般的武侠片——《英雄》中赫然耸现。该片以秦统一中国时期为背 景,曾经在 2002 年上映。一些人也在 2008 年北京奥运会的广告语——“同一个世界,同一个 梦想”中听出了“天下”的回声。 Though Mr Zhao was not proposing an indigenous blueprint for a China-led new world order to supplant the one led by America, the misconception that he was explains some of his appeal within China. One of the most popular books on sale in China at the moment is on “The rise of a ‘civilisational state’ by Zhang Weiwei. Mr Zhang argues that China is unique as “the world’s ”, only amalgam of an ancient civilisation and a huge modern state”, and is “increasingly returning to its own roots for inspiration, and producing its own norms and standards.” 虽然赵并未就由中国取代美国领导世界新秩序问题提出中国自己的蓝图,但是人们却误解他有 提出这个蓝图,这令他在国内颇受欢迎。张维为的新书《一个文明型国家的崛起》目前进入中 国最畅销书榜单。张认为,中国作为“世界仅有的古代文明与庞大的现代国家的融合之物”是 很不寻常的,它正越来越多地回到根基寻求灵感,创造它自己的准则和规范。 ” In another new book (this one in English), “Ancient Chinese Thought, Modern Chinese Power” Yan , Xuetong, a scholar at Tsinghua University in Beijing, concludes that “it is not possible to create a Chinese school of international-relations theory.” But he does think pre-Qin thought can “develop and enrich international-relations theory”. A British commentator once dubbed Mr Yan a “neo-comm”, analogous to an American neocon—ie, an assertive Chinese nationalist intent on facing down American hegemony. But Daniel Bell, also of Tsinghua, one of the book’ editors, argues s this misrepresents Mr Yan’s views by overlooking the emphasis he, like the pre-Qin philosophers, puts on the importance of morality in politics, and in establishing China as a “superpower modelled on humane authority”. 在另一本新书——《古代中国思想,现代中国力量》中(这一本是用英文写的) ,北京清华大学 学者阎学通断言, “创立一个国际关系理论的中国学派是不可能的” 但他认为先秦思想能够 , “发 展和丰富国际关系理论” 。一名英国评论家曾经把阎称为一个“新共产主义者” ,即一个决心挫 败美国霸权主义的坚定的中国民族主义者——有点儿类似于美国的新保守主义者。但是该书的 编者之一丹尼尔?贝尔(也来自清华)却主张,阎的观点由于人们忽视了他所强调的重点而受到 了误解,他像先秦的哲学家一样,论述了在政治活动和使中国成为一个“以人治为本的超级大 国”的过程中道德的重要性。 Beyond the failed state 避免重蹈“失败的世界” For scholars like Mr Yan and Mr Zhao, the pre-Qin thinkers offer fresh approaches to solving the problems of what Mr Zhao calls a “failed world”, with its endless wars. One is that the nation-state system of notional equality between countries fails to recognise that some are more equal than others. As China’s foreign minister bluntly pointed out last year at a meeting with its South-East Asian neighbours: “China is a big country and other countries are small countries and that’ just a fact.” A s second problem is that national governments—especially, some in China would argue, in democracies —often ignore the interests of those without a vote, such as unborn generations and foreigners. 对于像阎和赵这样的学者来说,先秦思想家为解决赵称之为“失败的世界(其战争没有休止) ” 的问题提供了新方法。其中的一个问题是国家间名义上平等的民族国家体系没有能认识到有些

国家就是要比别的国家享受更多的平等,即一些国家享有特权。正如在去年与东亚邻国共同召 开的一次会议上中国外长所宣扬的那样, “中国是一个大国,其他国家是小国,那就是事实” 。 第二个问题就是民族国家的政府(national governments) 尤其是那些民主政府,——中国某些 , 人有如此议论——经常无视不能参加投票选举那些人的利益, 比如未出生的后代, 以及外国 人。 Abroad these theorists’ideas tend to be greeted with suspicion as excuses for China’ exceptionalism s and its rejection of international rules it does not like. But at home they face equally daunting obstacles. The Communist Party, heavily pragmatic, is unlikely to adopt the moral precepts at the heart of classical Chinese philosophy. And just as fundamentally, for all that the idea of the nation-state, inviolable in its sovereignty, is a Western idea, China has become among its staunchest supporters— and is the fiercest critic of any perceived “interference” Moreover, it is hard to maintain that China’ . s astonishing success in recent years has been won in spite of the current international system. Indeed, China has arguably been one of its biggest beneficiaries. 在国外,这些理论家的思想常常被怀疑为中国卓异主义的借口,和它对自己不喜欢的国际规则 进行抵制的托词。但是在国内,他们遇到的阻碍同样令人望而生畏的。极为务实的共产党不会 接受这些位于中国经典哲学核心的道德戒律,并且尽管主权不容侵犯这种民族国家思想是西方 的舶来品(在西方,其地位与中国经典哲学之于中国同样重要) ,但是中国已成为其最坚定的支 持者之一,它甚至对自己想当然的干涉,也会进行最激烈的抨击。再者,如要申论中国近些年 所取得的惊人成就乃是在挣脱当前国际体系的束缚之下取得,这将很难自圆其说。实际上,中 国很可能就是当前国际体系最大的受益者之一。 http://ecocn.org/thread-49848-1-1.html 译者:tchch143 [2011.06.16]Materials science: Don't slag it off 别让它成为废渣 How to make bricks out of industrial waste 如何用工业废料制造成砖块 Jun 16th 2011 | from the print edition Considerate builders think of the future 考虑周到的建筑师构想未来 BUILDING houses and offices out of toxic waste sounds like a pretty eccentric idea. Yet it may become commonplace if Ana Andrés of the University of Cantabria in Spain has her way. For Dr Andr és and her colleagues suggest, in Industrial & Engineering Chemistry Research, that the humble brick need not be made of pure clay. Instead, up to 30% of its weight could be slag—the toxic gunk left over when steel is made. 用有毒废物建造房子和办公楼听起来像一个十分异想天开的想法。然而,如果西班牙的坎塔布 里亚大学的安娜?安德烈斯(Ana Andrés)得以遂其愿的话,它可能变成司空见惯的事。鉴于对 于安德烈斯博士(Dr Andrés)和她的同事建议在《工业和工程化学研究》建议,不起眼的砖不 必全用纯粘土制成。反而,接近于重量的 30%可替代为炉渣——制造钢铁时剩下来的有毒黏性 物质。 Waelz slag, to give its technical name, is composed mainly of silica but is also undesirably rich in poisonous metals like lead and zinc. Getting rid of it safely is thus a problem. Getting rid of it usefully might sound like a miracle. But that is what Dr Andrés proposes. A series of experiments she has conducted over the past three years suggests this is not only possible but will make bricks cheaper and more environmentally friendly. 其学名称为 Waelz 渣,主要由二氧化硅组成,但因同时含有丰富的诸如铅、锌等有毒金属而不 受人欢迎。因此,安全地处理它已经是个大难题。而废物利用简直就是个奇迹。但这恰恰是安

德烈斯博士(Dr Andrés)所建议的。她在过去三年多里所进行的一系列实验表明,这不仅是可 实现的,而且会使砖便宜,更环保。 Her research started after she read of previous work which had shown that many ceramics suffer no loss of integrity when the clay used to make them is mixed with other materials, and that the molecular structure of some ceramics acts to trap atoms of toxic heavy metals. She wondered whether these things might be true of brick clay and Waelz slag, and she began experimenting. The answer, she found, was that they are. Bricks show no loss of useful mechanical properties even when 20-30% of their content is slag. Nor do they leak. 以往的报告表明,把制陶用的粘土与其它材料混在一起陶制的话,瓷器的完整性也是毫发未伤; 同时还表明并某些陶瓷的分子结构能起到圈套有毒重金属原子的作用。在她翻阅以往的研究报 告后,她开始她的研究。她想知道,把制砖粘土和 waelz 渣混在一起陶制是不是也有同样效果, 因而她开始进行实验。她所找到的答案是他们仍然适用。即使 20-30%的成分都是炉渣,砖块的 有效力学性能也丝毫未损。而且炉渣也不会泄露出去。 To check that, Dr Andrés and her team ground their bricks into powder and soaked them in water, shook them in special machines for days at a time, and even tried to dissolve them in nitric acid. The pollutants stayed resolutely put. Moreover, adding slag to the clay reduced by a third the amount of carbon dioxide each brick released during its manufacture, because wood pulp is added to clay before it is fired, and less clay means less pulp is needed. The cost, too, fell, because slag is free, whereas clay costs money. 为了检验其结论,安德烈斯博士(Dr Andrés)和她的团队把砖块研磨成粉,并把粉末浸泡在水 中,用专用的机器搅拌一次数天,甚至试图将他们溶于硝酸。其污染物仍然留砖块里面,一动 不动。此外,把炉渣添加至粘土里面,在砖块生产过程中可减少每块砖所排放二氧化碳量的三 分之一,因为在粘土烧制之前要添加(一定的)木浆,而现在需要更少的粘土意味着需要更少 的木浆。其成本也随之下降,因为炉渣是免费的,然而粘土是要钱的。 There is, of course, the problem of customers. Whether people will be willing to live and work in structures that double as waste dumps is moot. But for those who want to make an eco-point, what better way could there be than, literally, to build their green credentials? 当然,对客户也存在着一些问题。人们是否愿意居住和工作在实际上又为废料抛弃场的建筑物, 还是一个未知之数。 但是,对于那些想促进生态的人来说,为了“建立”他们的环保信誉,从 字面上看,还有什么比名副其实地“建”个环保房更好的方法呢? http://ecocn.org/thread-49840-1-1.html 译者:710802847 [2011.06.09]IBM's centenary:The test of time 百年 IBM:时间的考验 Which of today’s technology giants might still be standing tall a century after their founding? 今天的科技巨头,哪一个也能在它成立后仍续领风骚一百年? Jun 9th 2011 | from the print edition IT IS not, by any means, the world’ oldest company. There are Japanese hotels dating back to the 8th s century, German breweries that hail from the 11th and an Italian bank with roots in the 15th. What is unusual about IBM, which celebrates its 100th birthday next week, is that it has been so successful for so long in the fast-moving field of technology. How has it done it? 它绝对不是世界上历史最悠久的公司。 日本酒店可追溯到 8 世纪, 德国啤酒厂的诞生于 11 世纪, 而意大利银行起源于 15 世纪。下周庆祝它的 100 岁生日的 IBM 公司与众不同的是,它长久以 来在日新月异的技术领域的已经获得如此成功。 它是怎样做到的呢? IBM’s secret is that it is built around an idea that transcends any particular product or technology. Its strategy is to package technology for use by businesses. At first this meant making punch-card

tabulators, but IBM moved on to magnetic-tape systems, mainframes, PCs, and most recently services and consulting. Building a company around an idea, rather than a specific technology, makes it easier to adapt when industry “platform shifts” occur (see article). IBM 公司的秘诀在于它秉承着“超越任何具体产品和技术”的理念。它的战略就是打包技术供 企业使用。起初,它那战略意味着制造卡片穿孔机,但 IBM(最后)转向磁带系统、大型电脑、 个人电脑、以及最近的咨询与服务。公司围绕着这宗旨,而不是具体的技术,这样使它更容易 地适应产业“平台转变” 。 True, IBM’s longevity is also due, in part, to dumb luck. It almost came unstuck early on because its bosses were hesitant to abandon punch cards. And it had a near-death experience in 1993 before Lou Gerstner realised that the best way to package technology for use by businesses was to focus on services. An elegant organising idea is no use if a company cannot come up with good products or services, or if it has clueless bosses. But on the basis of this simple formula—that a company should focus on an idea, rather than a technology—which of today’s young tech giants look best placed to live to 100? 的确,IBM 的长寿也可部分地归因于得来全不费工夫的好运气。在早期,它差不多就要倒闭, 因为它的老板在放弃卡片穿孔机事宜上犹疑不决。而它在 1993 年一度濒临倒闭,直到郭士纳 (Lou Gerstner)意识到打包技术供企业使用的最好的方法是把重点放在服务上。一流的组织理念 是没有用的,如果公司不能把它转化为好的产品或服务,或者如果公司老板无能的话。但是基 于这简单的准则——一个公司应该专注于某一个理念,而不是某一种技术——而今的年轻科技 巨头中,哪一个看起来最像能活到 100? The most obvious example is Apple (founded in 1976). Like IBM, it had a near-death experience in the 1990s, and it is dangerously dependent on its founder, Steve Jobs. But it has a powerful organising idea: take the latest technology, package it in a simple, elegant form and sell it at a premium price. Apple has done this with personal computers, music players, smartphones and tablet computers, and is now moving into cloud-based services (see article). Each time it has grabbed an existing technology and produced an easier-to-use and prettier version than anyone else. This approach can be applied to whatever technology is flavour of the month: Apple has already shifted from PCs to mobile devices. 最显而易见的例子是苹果公司(成立于 1976 年) 。与 IBM 一样,在 20 世纪 90 年代,它也一度 濒临死亡,而它严重依赖于它的创始人斯蒂芬?乔布斯(Steve Jobs) 。但它拥有一个强大的组织 宗旨:把最新的技术整合成一个简单易用的、漂亮的外形而高价卖出。苹果公司已经在个人电 脑,音乐播放器,智能手机和平板电脑上兑现这一宗旨,而现在转向到云为基础的服务(见文 章) 。每每苹果公司都整合现有技术去生产一种比其他公司生产的更容易使用和更完美的版本。 这种方法可以适用于时下走红的任何技术:苹果已经从 PC 转向移动设备。 The animating idea of Amazon (founded in 1994) is to make it easy for people to buy stuff. It began by doing this for books, but has since applied the same idea to other products: music, groceries, mobile apps, even computing power and storage, which it sells on tap. The Kindle may resemble an e-reader, but it is just as much a portable bookstore. As new things come along, Amazon will make it easy for you to buy them. Similarly, the aim of Facebook (2004) is to help people share stuff with friends easily. This idea can be extended to almost anything on almost any platform. 亚马逊公司(1994 年创立)的富有生气的想法是让人们更容易地买到东西。它开始在图书上兑 现这想法,但后来已经把同样的想法应用到其他产品:音乐,杂货,移动应用程序,甚至可随 时随地销售的运算能力和存储。Kindle 电子书貌似一个电子阅读器,但它更像一家可携带的书 店。当新事物出现时,亚马逊将让你很容易地买商品。同样,Facebook(2004)的目的,是帮 助人们轻松地与朋友分享的东西。这种思想可以扩展到几乎任何平台上的几乎所有东西。 Consider, by contrast, three product-based firms. Dell (founded in 1984) made its name building PCs more efficiently than anyone else and selling them direct to consumers. That model does not neatly

transfer to other products. Cisco Systems (also 1984) makes internet routers. It has diversified into other areas, such as videoconferencing, but chiefly because it thought this would increase demand for routers. Microsoft (1975) is hugely dependent on Windows, which is its answer to everything. But software for a PC may not be the best choice to run inside a phone or a car. All these firms are wedded to specific products, not deeper philosophies, and are having trouble navigating technological shifts. 相比之下,联想到三家以产品为基础的公司。戴尔(成立于 1984 年)以组装电脑比别人高效和 直接出售给消费者著称。这种模式没有灵活地应用到其他产品上。 思科系统公司(也成立于 1984 年)制造互联网路由器。它应经使产品多元化到其他领域,如视频会议,但主要是因为它 认为这会增加路由器的需求。微软(1975)是非常依赖于 Windows 系统,这是它对一切问题的 答案。但是,电脑软件未必是运行在电话或汽车的最佳选择。这些公司都执着于特定产品,而 不是更深刻的见解,因而难以在日新月异的技术变换的大海上平稳航行。 Other giants are still struggling to move beyond their core technologies. Oracle (1977) was originally a database company, which peddled databases as the answer to all its clients’ problems. But in the past decade it has moved into other corporate software, and hardware too. Now it aims to provide entire computing systems. Google (1998) knows the importance of an idea. “Organising the world’s information and making it universally accessible” is its motto, and it is putting that into practice on mobile devices through its Android software, which is spreading fast. But Google is still heavily dependent on a single product—internet search and related advertising. 其他巨头仍在努力拓展自己的核心技术。甲骨文公司(1977)最初是一个数据库公司,该公司 把数据库推销为其所有客户的问题的答案。但在过去十年中它已经转向其他的企业软件和硬件 领域。现在,它的目标是提供整个计算机系统。谷歌(1998)认识到宗旨的重要性。 “统筹全球 信息,让信息随处可及”是它的座右铭,而且它通过其 Android 系统在移动设备上将其座右铭 付诸实践,它的 Android 系统正在迅速地传播开来。但是,谷歌仍然严重依赖单一产品——搜 索引擎和相关的广告。 Good to be elegant, better to be old 姿态优雅固然好, 命活得长尤其佳 The upshot: Apple, Amazon and Facebook look like good long-term bets. Dell, Cisco and Microsoft do not. The jury is out on Oracle and Google. See you in 2111—provided, that is, that The Economist (founded in 1843, with the idea of explaining the world to its readers) is still around too. 其结论是:苹果、亚马逊和 Facebook 看起来像是优良的长期下注对象。而戴尔、思科和微软不 是。在甲骨文和谷歌上,最后结论还有待分晓。与您相约 2111(在经济学人上再见) ——也 就是,假如说 经济学人(成立于 1843 年,以“为读者阐述世界”为宗旨)那时还在世上。 http://ecocn.org/thread-49672-1-1.html 译者:710802847 [2011.06.09]Running dry 枯竭 Jun 9th 2011, 15:09 by The Economist online Oil production fails to keep up with demand 石油生产无法跟上需求 CRUDE-OIL prices shot up on June 8th—Brent crude to a one-month high of $118.59 per barrel— after OPEC representatives meeting in Vienna were unable to reach an agreement on production quotas. Many had expected an increase in quotas as members with spare production capacity, led by Saudi Arabia, pushed to avoid a price spike that may dampen long-term demand. As figures released in BP’s "Statistical Review of World Energy" show, global oil production has struggled to keep up with increased demand recently, particularly from Asia. In China alone consumption has risen by over 4m barrels per day in the past decade, accounting for two-fifths of the global rise. In 2010

consumption exceeded production by over 5m barrels per day for the first year ever, as world oil stocks were run down. 6 月 8 日, 原油价格飙升; 布兰特原油每桶涨到一个月来的最高点 118.59 美元。 在此之前,OPEC 的代表在维也纳的会议上未能就生产配额问题达成一致。许多人原本期望配额会增加,因为以 沙特为首的有闲置产能的成员国努力在避免可能会抑制长期需求的价格飙升。而 BP 公司《世 界能源统计年鉴(Statistical Review of World Energy)》发布的数据显示,全球石油生产最近难以 跟上需求的增长,尤其是亚洲。仅仅在中国一国,石油在过去十年间的日消耗量就增加了 400 万桶以上,占全球增加量的 2/5。随着世界石油库存量的下降,石油消费在 2010 年首次超过生 产 500 万桶以上。 http://ecocn.org/thread-49674-1-1.html 译者:eastx [2011.06.09]Welcome to IPOville 欢迎光临“公募上市”之城 Social-media firms see champagne; others see bubbles 社交媒体公司在这看见了喜庆香槟;别人只见到香槟泡沫 Jun 9th 2011 | SAN FRANCISCO | from the print edition INITIAL public offerings (IPOs) (注 2) internet start-ups are like buses: you wait ages for one to of arrive, then several turn up at once. After years in the doldrums, the IPO market for technology firms has suddenly sprung to life again in America. 互联网新兴企业首次公开募股(IPO)就像坐公车:等了许久一辆不来,一来却又是好几辆。美 国科技企业 IPO 市场便是如此,低迷多年,突然重焕生机。 LinkedIn, a social network for professionals, kicked things off last month with a flotation on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) that valued it at $8.8 billion—572 times its profits last year—at the end of the first day of trading. Now a number of web outfits, including Groupon, which offers online coupons, and Pandora Media, an internet-radio firm, are queuing to join the party. Other start-ups could soon add themselves to the crowd, notably Zynga, the creator of addictive online games such as FarmVille, in which players grow turnips and breed pigs. 上月,大戏开演,专业人士社交网络 LinkedIn 在纽约证交所(NYSE)上市,首日交易结束时, 估值 88 亿美元,是其去年利润的 572 倍。而现在,包括网券提供商 Groupon 及网络电台公司 Pandora Media 在内的众多互联网企业,都在排队参与这场盛会。其他新兴企业,尤其是 Zynga 公司,或许很快就会加入进来。该公司打造了网络游戏“开心农场” (FarmVille) ,玩家沉迷其 中,种菜养猪。 Web companies from China, Russia and elsewhere are also rushing to list on American exchanges. Shortly after LinkedIn’ stunning debut, which saw its share price more than double, Yandex, Russia’ s s largest search engine, floated its shares on the NYSE. Its price soared by more than 50% on the first day of trading. These first-day “pops”, as bankers call them, have stoked fears that a new internet bubble is inflating and reignited a furious debate about how best to value web start-ups. 中国、俄罗斯及别地的互联网企业也一窝蜂涌向美国证交所上市。LinkedIn 一炮走红,股价涨 了两倍多。此后不久,俄罗斯最大搜索引擎公司 Yandex 也在纽交所发行了股票,交易首日,股 价飙升了一半多。凡此种种被银行家称为新股上市首日“爆增” ,加剧了人们对新一轮互联网泡 沫膨胀的担忧,亦再度引发了“互联网新兴企业最佳估值方式”的激烈争论。 Groupon’s potential price tag ($15 billion, by one estimate) is already controversial. Labelled “the fastest-growing company ever” by ardent fans, the firm has turned a simple concept into a money-spinner. Customers sign up to receive offers from local firms. Groupon spices up the process by, say, having some offers expire unless a certain minimum number of people subscribe to them. This

prompts people to nag their friends to shop at the same boutique or eat at the same diner—hence the “group” in Groupon. Groupon 潜在标价据估为 150 亿美元,早有争议。该公司被狂热粉丝标榜为“史上发展最快企 业” ,凭的就是把一个简单想法变成摇钱树的本事。用户可注册从本地企业那获取优惠,而 Groupon 在此过程中加了点刺激,比方说,若期限前未达到最低订购人数,某些产品或服务优 惠就将失效。这一招促使大伙拼命催促朋友在同一家商店购物,在同一家餐馆用餐,Groupon (团宝)中的“团”就由此而来。 The firm typically keeps roughly half of the money that customers fork out, with the rest going to the businesses that actually supply the goods and services. Last year its revenues were $713m. In the first quarter of 2011 it took in a breathtaking $645m. Although Groupon is less than three years old, it operates in 43 countries and has no fewer than 83m subscribers. Groupon 通常会将用户付款的大致一半划入囊中,其余的则交给各产品与服务的实际提供商。 去年,其收入达 7.13 亿美元。2011 年首季度收入更是惊人,达 6.45 亿美元。尽管 Groupon 尚 不足 3 岁,运作却已遍及 43 个国家,至少拥有 8300 万用户。 The snag is that the company is still bleeding red ink. It lost $390m in 2010 and $103m in the first quarter of this year. Critics find this alarming. Groupon retorts that it is simply spending heavily to scoop up subscribers while the market it created is in its infancy. In its IPO prospectus, it urges investors to focus on other measures, such as free cashflow (operating cashflow minus capital expenditure), which was positive last year, and the arcane-sounding “adjusted consolidated segment operating income”, which excludes such things as cash spent on online marketing. 但 Groupon 的障碍在于,2010 年亏损 3.9 亿美元,今年首季度亏损 1.03 亿美元,赤字不断。批 评人士认为这令人担忧。Groupon 反驳道,其开创的这一市场尚处发展初期,赤字只不过是在 争抢用户时投资过巨。其 IPO 章程恳请投资者重点关注其他标准,如去年为正值的自由现金流 (运营现金流—资本支出)与听来晦涩的“调整后的综合收益” ,其实就是扣除了网络营销开支 之类的财务数字。 “The path to success will have twists and turns, moments of brilliance and other moments of sheer stupidity. Knowing that this will at times be a bumpy ride, we thank you for considering joining us,” writes Groupon’s boss, Andrew Mason, in a letter to potential stockholders. Not everyone is reassured. Groupon 老板 Andrew Mason 在一封写给潜在持股者的信中表示: “成功之路免不了迂回曲折, 有聪明绝顶之刻, 也有愚蠢无比之时,间或还会崎岖不平,因为了解这一点,故而您考虑与我 们并肩前行,我们不胜感激。 ”但这并不能让每个人都放心。 How should one value a money-losing firm in a new industry? PwC, a consultancy, ranks web firms according to their “value per user”. This is calculated by dividing a start-up’s estimated worth (derived from venture-funding rounds, equity transactions on secondary markets and so on) by the number of its users. 那该如何估值一家新兴行业亏损公司呢?咨询公司普华永道(PwC)的做法是,将某新兴企业 估值除以其用户数,得到各互联网企业的“用户均值” ,再据此排座次。而该估值源自该新兴企 业获得的多轮风投资金及二级市场上的净值交易事项等。 By this benchmark, Groupon scores well, just below Facebook and Renren, a Chinese social network with a listing in America (see chart). But such measures do not reflect the risks of Groupon’s model. The company may boast 83m users, but only 16m have actually bought a Groupon. Its success outside America has been patchy: just 9% of its subscribers in London have ever bought anything from it.

照此基准,Groupon 得分相当可观,仅次于 Facebook 和人人网,后者是一家在美上市的中国社 交网络公司(见图) 。但此类标准并不会反映出 Groupon 模式的风险。该公司自诩拥有 8300 万 用户,但确实买过单的仅有 1600 万。美国之外成绩参差不齐:譬如伦敦 Groupon,其用户只有 9%曾在上面买过东西。 Facebook enjoys a powerful network effect; Groupon, less so. It must spend a fortune to keep signing up new subscribers. Hence its keenness to steer investors towards a measure that excludes marketing costs. Groupon’s growth has attracted big competitors such as LivingSocial as well as a host of smaller start-ups. These rivals could poach its users with cheaper deals. And they could offer retailers better terms, too, in the process threatening Groupon’s fat margins. Facebook 网络社区效应强大;Groupon 要逊色一筹,必须下血本不断吸引新用户注册,因而拼 命想将投资者的注意力导向一个扣除了营销成本的财务标准上。Groupon 蓬勃发展,令 LivingSocial 之类的大竞争对手垂涎欲滴,也吸引了众多小型新兴企业觊觎。这些对手可能会以 更便宜的交易价偷偷挖走其用户,还会给零售商开出更优惠的条件,这样一来,Groupon 的丰 厚利润岌岌可危。 All this shows why setting an offering price for shares in an IPO is so tricky. “It’ more an art than a s science,” says Paul Bard of Renaissance Capital, an IPO research firm in America. Investment banks are supposed to be masters of that art. But some people, such as Peter Thiel, a big early investor in Facebook and LinkedIn, have accused the banks involved in the LinkedIn transaction of drastically underpricing the shares. 凡此种种,均表明了 IPO 股票定价何以如此微妙复杂。美国 IPO 研究公司“复兴资本” (Renaissance Capital)的 Paul Bard 称, “定价更像一门艺术而非一门科学。 ”投行本应精通这门 艺术。但某些人,如 Facebook 和 LinkedIn 早期主要投资者 Peter Thiel ,就指责运作 LinkedIn 公司 IPO 的投行把股价定得太低了。 Bankers have sometimes been accused of underpricing deals so that their investment clients can make a swift killing on a firm’s shares. However in this case Mr Thiel’s gripe was that the banks failed to appreciate LinkedIn’s tremendous potential. Perhaps it never occurred to the bankers involved that people would pay so much for such a risky stock. 有时,投资银行家会遭指责,称其刻意压低交易价格,以便其投资客户能从购买的企业股票上 猛赚一笔。不过这一次,Thiel 先生怨声载道,只是因为这些个银行家未能意识到 LinkedIn 潜力 巨大。或许原因在于,参与 IPO 运作的银行家从未料到,人们会花恁多钱购买一只风险如此高 的股票。 Yet there is something to be said for erring on the side of caution when setting initial offer prices. Elizabeth Demers, a professor at INSEAD, a business school near Paris, points out that what companies lose in terms of hard cash in the early days can often be made up for in terms of the publicity they get when the news media applaud the explosive rise in their share prices. They can also launch secondary issues of other shares at the new price established by the IPO. Unless, of course, this really is a bubble, and it bursts. 然而坊间有云,初次定价宁可谨慎过头。INSEAD 商学院毗邻巴黎,该校教授 Elizabeth Demers 指出,当新闻媒体为企业股价飙升鼓掌叫好时,企业先前在现金上损失的,通常会由其获得的 公众知名度来补偿。而这些企业也会以 IPO 确立的新股价,再次发行股票。除非,当然咯,除 非这一轮互联网新兴企业群起上市真是泡沫,而且到时都爆裂了。 注 1:IPOville Ville 是法语“城镇、市镇”之意,而 IPOville 应出自 Whoville 一词,后者一般译为“无名镇” 。 维基百科上的解释为:Whoville is a fantasy town created by author Theodor Seuss Geisel, under the

name Dr. Seuss. Whoville was adapted by the books, Horton Hears a Who! and How the Grinch Stole Christmas!.The city of Whoville is located on a clover flower within a floating speck of dust according to the book Horton Hears a Who!. However, in the children's story How the Grinch Stole Christmas!, Whoville is located within a speckle on a snowflake. Because the city of Whoville resides on a speck in both stories, it is prone to unexpected movement, weather, and activity.Many different characters, known as Whos, live within the speck of dust. The Whos are known for their their warm hearts and welcoming spirits. Just North of Whoville, atop a high mountain lives a bitter, cave-dwelling creature named The Grinch with his dog Max. 本文中,作者玩了文字游戏,将该词中的“Who”换为“IPO” ,表示 IPO 市场就像热情而富于 欢迎精神的“无名镇”一样,各家互联网企业争相到此上市,但其走向又像定居在微尘上的 Whoville 一样,漂浮不定。这里译为“欢迎来上市” ,有两方面的考虑:一方面, “上市”是 IPO 的通俗说法,此外“市”又可通“市镇”的“市” ,勉强契合了原标题的双关之意。 注 2:IPO 首次公开募股(Initial Public Offerings,简称 IPO) ,是指企业透过证券交易所首次公开向投资者 增发股票,以期募集用于企业发展资金的过程。当大量投资者认购新股时,需要以抽签形式分 配股票,又称为抽新股,认购的投资者期望可以用高于认购价的价格售出。对应于一级市场, 大部分公开发行股票由投资银行集团承销而进入市场,银行按照一定的折扣价从发行方购买到 自己的账户,然后以约定的价格出售,公开发行的准备费用较高,私募可以在某种程度上部分 规避此类费用。这个现象在 1990 年代末的美国发起,当时美国正经历科技网络类股泡沫化。创 办人会以独立资本成立公司,并希望在牛市期间透过 IPO 来集资。由于投资者认为这些公司有 机会成为“微软第二” ,股价在它们上市的初期通常都会上扬,不少创办人都在一夜间成了百万 富翁。而受惠于认股权,雇员也赚取了可观的收入。在美国,大部分透过 IPO 集资的股票都会 在纳斯达克市场内交易。 http://ecocn.org/thread-49822-1-1.html [2011.06.09]Italy: Tangled webs 纠结之网 Conflicts of interest pervading public life conspire against change 利益冲突充斥公共生活,联手合谋阻扼改革 Jun 9th 2011 | from the print edition ANYONE LOOKING FOR entertaining television in Italy at the end of the day would do well to flick past the Milan football derby and “Italy’s Next Top Model” and pick a political talk show instead. These combative, insult-laden programmes are hard to watch and harder to turn off. “Opponents are presented not so much as wrong but as losers or, better, sexually inadequate losers,” wrote Tim Parks in the New Yorker recently. 无论何人,倘若想在日暮时分找档意大利电视节目消遣,不妨跳过米兰足球德比大战跟《意大 利明日超模》 ,另挑一档政治脱口秀来看。这些节目火药味十足、脏话横飞,看了难受,关掉不 看更难受。Tim Parks 最近就在《纽约客》上写道: “对手方展现给人的印象,与其说是错误的 一方,不如说是落败的一方,更恰当地说,性无能的输方。 ” Americans might shrug at this, but in Italy things are different—and not just because there is more sex. In America conservatives may rage against Supreme Court rulings like Roe v Wade, but only a far-flung fringe questions the right of the court to make such decisions. In Italy that fringe is in government. 美国人兴许对此不以为然,但在意大利,情况有所不同,而不同的原因,并不只是由于当地政 治节目充斥着更多的性。在美国,针对最高法院的裁决,如 Roe 诉 Wade 堕胎案,保守人士或 许会大发雷霆严词反对,但只有一群远离权力中心的边缘人士,才会质疑高院如此判决的权利。 而在意大利,这伙人就在政府内部。

The lines that run between political parties, the civil service, the media, business and the judiciary are more like ribbons that can be bent to any shape under slight pressure. Italy lacks referees who can intervene when this process goes too far, argues Ferdinando Giugliano of Oxford University. Institutions are further weakened by the conflicts of interest that pop up everywhere. The prime minister’s ownership of the country’s largest television network is merely the biggest of them. 意大利各政党、行政部门、媒体、商界与司法部门之间,职权运作界线分明。这一界线就像丝 带,稍有压力,就可扭曲,任意变形。牛津大学的 Ferdinando Giugliano 表示,当这一扭曲过程 太离谱时,意大利缺乏可介入制止的仲裁者。利益冲突四处冒出,又进一步削弱了各公共机构 的职能。而意总理握有该国最大电视网络的股份,只是种种冲突中最大的一个。 Back in the 1990s it seemed to some that Italy was on the threshold of an institutional transformation. Membership of the euro would prevent Italy from devaluing its currency whenever exports became uncompetitive, forcing the country to undertake reforms to boost productivity. The breaking up of the Christian Democrats’ monopoly on power achieved by the “clean hands” corruption trials would allow Italy to become a more normal democracy in which power alternates between two main parties, providing strong government. 回顾上世纪九十年代,有些人似乎觉得意大利正处在体制转变前夕。欧元成员国的身份,阻碍 意大利在出口竞争乏力时贬值货币, 从而迫使其着手改革, 以提高生产力。 “净手” 反腐运动后, “基督民主党”的垄断力量日益衰颓,或能让意大利变成一个更为正常的民主国家,即由两大 主要政党交替执政,政府强大有力。 This has not happened. The problems of the Italian economy are still substantially the same as they were 15 years ago, though the government’s direct involvement in industry has diminished. Italy has not developed a two-party system: the left is made up of squabbling coalitions of interests that can sometimes be glued together for the sake of winning power but then tend to disintegrate. People of Freedom (PdL), the main party on the right, governs in coalition with another with which it disagrees on fundamental issues, such as how much regional devolution there should be. Moreover, part of the PdL is not so much a party as a group of Berlusconi fans and ex-employees. Giulio Tremonti, the finance minister, was Mr Berlusconi’ tax lawyer; Mara Carfagna, the minister for equal opportunities, s used to jiggle in a bikini on one of his television channels. 事与愿违。尽管意政府减少了对本国工业的直接干涉,但意大利经济面临的种种问题,大体仍 与十五年前一般无二。该国并未发展出两党体系。组成左派的利益同盟争执不休,偶尔为了赢 得选举掌权, 才会如胶似漆粘在一起, 但马上就会分崩离析。 右翼主要政党 “自由人民党” (PdL) 与另一个右翼政党结盟,并做了盟主。但在一些基本问题上,如应向多少个地区放权,双方分 歧重重。此外, “自由人民党”局部,与其说是个政党,还不如说是贝卢斯科尼总理的粉丝会及 前雇员团。财政部长 Giulio Tremonti 曾担任贝卢斯科尼先生的税务律师;而平等机会部长 Mara Carfagna,以前常身着比基尼,在贝先生的电视频道上卖弄风骚。 The parties’ credibility has also been damaged by frequent tinkering with the rules for electing deputies and senators in Rome. After the clean hands trials Italy pursued piecemeal electoral reform, which did produce strong governments with more stable majorities. But a Berlusconi-led government in 2005 brought in a closed-list system, in the hope that it would make the left even more fragmented than it was already. That did not happen, but it increased the control of party managers and broke the direct link between voters and constituents. 罗马隔三岔五胡乱修补参、众议员选举规则,也损害了意大利各政党的信誉。 “净手”反腐运动 后,意大利实施了渐进式选举改革,确实造就了得票数更稳定的强大政府。但 2005 年,贝卢斯 科尼政府引入了一种封闭名单式选举系统,希望促使原就四分五裂的左翼力量更分散。如意算 盘虽落空了,但却加强了政党大佬对各自党派的控制力,打破了选民之间的直接联系。

Keeping the political circus going is also strikingly expensive. Parties receive generous subsidies to fund their election expenses: according to the Court of Auditors, between 1994 and 2008 they received 2.2 billion ($3.1 billion) from general taxation to cover their election expenses, but only 579m of this expenditure could be verified. A cynical reading of this would suggest Italy’s political parties made a profit of 1.67 billion at taxpayers’ expense over this period. 要让这出政治闹剧演下去,费用也惊人昂贵。意大利各政党收受大量援金作为选举经费。据意 审计院数据,1994~2008 年间,各政党从普通税收中获取了 22 亿欧元(31 亿美元)选举经费, 但能核实的仅有 5.79 亿欧元。一份质疑报告可能暗示,在此期间,意大利各政党从纳税人身上 赚了 16.7 亿欧元。 ___________________________________________________________________ Like other aspects of Italian life, corporate culture has a way of remaining essentially unchanged no matter what the law may say 就像 意大利生活的其他方面,不管法律宣称什么,企业文化本质上也惯于固步自封 ___________________________________________________________________ Conflicts of interest affect journalism and business too. The largest shareholder of the company that owns the country’s most famous newspaper,Corriere della Sera, is Mediobanca, an octopus-like investment bank which holds large stakes in many of Italy’ biggest companies. The paper’ reporters s s are independent, but that does not stop Italians indulging in dietrologia, the study of whose interest lies behind the stories. Italy’s second-biggest newspaper, La Repubblica, is owned by Carlo De Benedetti, a veteran industrialist, and managed by his son, Rodolfo. Fiat (whose controlling shareholder, the Agnelli family, has a small shareholding in The Economist) owns La Stampa and also has a large holding in Corriere. Silvio Berlusconi’s brother owns Il Giornale, and the prime minister provided the capital to start another friendly newspaper, Il Foglio. But it is hard to argue that newspaper proprietors in Italy are vastly more powerful than elsewhere, and there are enough voices to ensure competition. 利益冲突也波及新闻业与商业。作为意大利名头最响的报纸《晚邮报》 (Corriere della Sera)所 属公司的最大股东,投行 Mediobanca 活像章鱼一般,在意大利众多大企业中握有重股。该报记 者倒是独立自主,却也没法阻止意大利人醉心研究“背景学(dietrologia),探寻报道背后的利 ” 益归属。 意大利第二大报 《共和报》 (La Repubblica) 掌握在资深实业家 Carlo De Benedetti 手中, 由其儿子 Rodolfo 经营。菲亚特公司(Fiat)拥有《新闻报》 (La Stampa ) ,还握有《晚邮报》 的重股。其控股股东阿涅利家族(the Agnelli family)还拥有《经济学人》杂志的小额股份。西 尔维奥?贝卢斯科尼总理的兄弟拥有《意大利日报》 Giornale) (Il ,而其自个则出资创办了另一 份友好报纸《政府宪报》 Foglio) (Il 。但这还难以说明意大利报纸业主较别地强势得多,且有足 够话语权来确保竞争。 The same cannot be said of television, which is where most Italians get their news. Mr Berlusconi owns the biggest commercial broadcaster, but his government also has influence over appointments at RAI, the public broadcaster. That twin grip gives him formidable power over how his government is seen on television. Freedom House, an American NGO, reckons that in his 2001-06 government Mr Berlusconi had control over 90% of the broadcast media. That assessment has yet to be updated, but not a lot has changed. 而对于大多数意大利人获取消息渠道的电视业而言,情况却并非如此。贝卢斯科尼先生拥有全 国最大的商业广播公司,但其政府也对公共广播公司 RAI 的人事任命指手画脚。这种两手并抓 的局面,赋予他令人生畏的力量,可以控制其政府在电视上的形象。美国非政府组织(NGO) “自由之家”估计,贝卢斯科尼在 2001~2006 年执政期间,掌控了超过 90%的广播电视媒体。 这一评估还在更新,但变动不大。 As seen on TV 总理先生的电视形象

Even without the country’s dominant media owner in the Chigi Palace, RAI would be rife with political influence. Seven out of nine members of the body that supervises the broadcaster are elected by parliamentary committee. They spend their time haggling over the share of airtime allocated to their political parties instead of allowing RAI’s journalists to keep balance. 就算这位垄断媒体大亨没有入主意总理官邸基吉宫(the Chigi Palace) ,RAI 也难逃政治势力左 右。其董事局 9 位成员就有 7 位由意大利议会选举产生。这些人花大量时间围绕电视节目配额 讨价还价,为各自政党争取宣传机会,却不让 RAI 记者自行权衡节目安排。 Board games 董事会博弈 Italian capitalism differs from other varieties in three respects: the use of cross-shareholdings, whereby company A owns shares in company B and vice versa; cascading ownership structures, which allow holders of a relatively small number of shares in a large company to control it via a series of shell companies; and shallow equity markets, which are partly a result of the other two oddities. 意大利资本主义与别地有三点区别:一是交叉持股的应用,借此手法,A 公司可持有 B 公司股 票,反之亦可;二是股权结构呈阶梯状分布,使得那些持有某大企业相对少数股票的持股人, 可通过一系列控股公司控股该企业;三是产权投资市场容量较低,这在一定程度上是由上述两 种怪相所致。 In theory the rules for the governance of publicly listed companies are exemplary. In practice they do not deliver the goods: witness Pirelli’s value-destroying shopping spree ten years ago which lost it more than 3 billion ($4.1 billion) on its stake in Telecom Italia, at the instigation of a shareholder who owned just 8% of its equity. Minority shareholders can expect to be frozen out unless they make pacts with other shareholders. One such pact, led by Capitalia and UniCredit, two large banks, governs the ownership of Mediobanca, which has proved expert at using small stakes in companies to get its way. The government still owns large stakes in big public companies like Eni, an oil and gas company that is 30% owned by the Ministry of Economy and Finance, and Enel, which generates and distributes electricity and is 31% owned by the same ministry. 理论上,意大利公开上市公司管理规则可堪效仿,其实却不咋样,以 Pirelli 公司的经历为证。 十年前,在一位所持意电信公司(Telecom Italia)股票仅有 8%的股东怂恿下,Pirelli 公司低价 狂购其公司股票,而现在,其股值却损失了 30 多亿欧元(超过 41 亿美元) 。又少数股东倘若未 与其他股东签订种种协议, 资金可能会被冻结。 其中一条由两大银行 Capitalia 和 UniCredit 牵头 制定的协议,掌控着投行 Mediobanca 的所有权,而后者被证实非常善于利用各家公司少数股份 来达成所愿。此外,意大利政府仍持有一些上市大公司的巨额股票,如经济财政部掌握着石油 天然气巨头 Eni 公司 30%的股票,而发电输电企业 Enel 公司 31%的股票也为其所有。 One result is that retail investors stay away. Combined with the widespread family ownership of medium-sized companies (which restricts the number of listed firms), this means Italian capitalism does a poor job of connecting the country’s ample private savings with companies in need of capital. Two recent changes—a European directive known as Record Date and an edict from Italy’s stockmarket regulator giving independent directors a veto over some manoeuvres—may help the minnows. But like other aspects of Italian life, corporate culture has a way of remaining essentially unchanged no matter what the law may say. 这样做的一个后果,便是小额投资者逃之夭夭。加之中型企业家族经营十分普遍,抑制了企业 上市数量,从而意味着,在为本国大量私人储蓄与亟需资本的企业之间搭桥铺路方面,意大利 资本主义未能有效发挥作用。 最近有两项改革, 一是欧盟下发的名为 “登记日期 (Rrecord Date) ” 的指示;还有意大利证券市场监管机构发出的一项法令,赋予独立董事在某些运作上享有否决 权。两者皆对小投资者有利。然而,就像意大利生活的其他方面,不管法律宣称什么,企业文 化本质上也惯于固步自封。

Justice deferred 正义迟迟不来 To understand how these conflicts block change, consider the government’s current proposal to reform the judiciary. Italy’ courts follow the principle that appeals should be allowed at each stage of s the process so as to minimise the chance of an injustice. This praiseworthy ambition produces nightmarish results. A study by the European Council found that in 2005 it took an average of 1,210 days for a contractual dispute to be resolved in Italy, compared with 229 in Britain and 331 in France. Turin’ courts have managed to cut the delays by giving priority to older cases and publishing the rate s at which judges clear them. Unfortunately these innovations have not been copied elsewhere, so the foot-dragging continues. 要弄懂这些利益冲突是如何阻碍改革的,可琢磨下意大利政府近期公布的司法改革提案。意法 院遵循的原则是:案件审理每阶段均允许上诉,以将不公平的机会减至最低。这一雄心勃勃值 得称颂的原则,却造成了梦魇式的后果。欧盟理事会所作的一项研究发现,2005 年,意大利每 起合同纠纷结案,平均费时 1210 天,相比之下,英国为 229 天,法国 331 天。都灵法院消除拖 延的做法是,优先处理陈案,公布法官结案进度。遗憾的是,这些革新并未推广到别处,故而 拖延继续。 Hence the government’s reform proposal. It mixes some things that might help a bit—such as separating the career paths of prosecutors and judges—with some things that would be disastrous, such as making it possible to bring civil lawsuits against magistrates and judges and giving elected politicians a say in which cases should be prioritised. But this reform ought to go nowhere anyway because of the conflicts of interest that come with it. On the government’s side the prime minister has been engaged in a fight with “communist” prosecutors since he entered office, and now dedicates a day a week to doing battle with them. There is no way that his government can propose a disinterested reform. As for the magistrates, some of them seem to be politically motivated. Antonio di Pietro, one of the principal judges in the clean hands trials, now has his own political party. But judges, even if they have fought political corruption, should not become elected politicians. So reforming the courts is impossible because everybody’s motives are questionable. 这便是意大利政府改革提案的由来。此提案综合考虑了一些有利因素,如公诉人与法官的职业 生涯应不相关,和一些不利因素,如让民告官成为可能,并赋予当选政客决定哪起案件应优先 审理的权利。但无论使出何招,这次改革料应无疾而终,原因就是利益冲突与改革如影随形。 中央政府方面,意总理自上台以来,一直忙于跟“共产党”公诉人斗争,现在每周都得花一天 时间来与之周旋。其政府绝不会倡导一场公正无私的改革。至于地方官员,有些貌似具备改革 政治动机。Antonio di Pietro 是“净手”反腐运动的主审法官之一,现已创立了自己的政党。但 即便曾为反对政治腐败而战,法官也不应变成当选政客。综上所述,由于人人动机可疑,因此 司法改革可能性不大。 “Italy would be relatively normal if it were not for all the little Berlusconis,” says James Walston, a political scientist at the American University of Rome. Conflicts of interest and blurred boundaries between institutions seem to be the norm, and powers are amalgamated rather than separated. But all these tangles seem modest by comparison with the prime minister’s own. One reason for his remarkable success may be sympathy from people who see something of themselves in him. 罗马美国大学的政治学者 James Walston 称, “意大利要是没这么多‘小贝卢斯科尼’ ,或许会相 对正常些。 利益冲突与体制界限模糊似已成常态, ” 而政治力量宁愿联合而非分裂。 但这团乱麻, 相较总理先生自个的一团糟,只是小巫见大巫。贝先生成就非凡的原因之一,或许出自某些民 众的支持,这些人在他身上看到了自己的一些影子。 http://ecocn.org/thread-50717-1-1.html 译者:zhanyisky [2011.06.02]The end of AIDS?终结艾滋病?

Thirty years of a disease 一种疾病的 30 年 The end of AIDS? 终结艾滋病? Thirty years on, it looks as though the plague can now be beaten, if the world has the will to do so 如果全球各国下定决心的话,30 年来的努力看似艾滋病现可被战胜。 Jun 2nd 2011 | from the print edition ON JUNE 5th 1981 America’s Centres for Disease Control and Prevention reported the outbreak of an unusual form of pneumonia in Los Angeles. When, a few weeks later, its scientists noticed a similar cluster of a rare cancer called Kaposi’s sarcoma in San Francisco, they suspected that something strange and serious was afoot. That something was AIDS. 1981 年 6 月 5 日, 美国疾病控制和预防中心 (America’ Centres for Disease Control and Prevention) s 报道称,洛杉矶爆发了一种不同寻常的肺炎。数周后,美国疾病控制预防中心科学家又注意到, 一种类似卡波西肉瘤(Kaposi’s sarcoma)的群发性罕见癌症在旧金山出现,他们怀疑,某种 奇怪而又严重的疾病正在来袭。而这种怪症就是艾滋病。 Since then, 25m people have died from AIDS and another 34m are infected. The 30th anniversary of the disease’s discovery has been taken by many as an occasion for hand-wringing. Yet the war on AIDS is going far better than anyone dared hope. A decade ago, half of the people in several southern African countries were expected to die of AIDS. Now, the death rate is dropping. In 2005 the disease killed 2.1m people. In 2009, the most recent year for which data are available, the number was 1.8m. Some 5m lives have already been saved by drug treatment. In 33 of the worst-affected countries the rate of new infections is down by 25% or more from its peak. 自此,全球共有 2500 万人已死于艾滋病,另有 3400 万人受到感染。艾滋病出现的 30 周年纪念 日被许多人视为紧搓双手而又无计可施的时机。然而,抗艾之战的进展远远好于人类此前胆敢 想象的。10 年前,人们预计非洲南部数个国家将有半数人口死于艾滋病。现在,艾滋病患者的 死亡率正在下降。2005 年,艾滋病夺走 210 万人的生命。离当前最近并有数据可查的 2009 年, 这一死亡数字为 180 万。通过药物治疗,约 500 万性命被拯救。在艾滋病肆虐最严重的 33 个国 家,艾滋病传染新病例比高峰时期下降了 25%或更多。 Even more hopeful is a recent study which suggests that the drugs used to treat AIDS may also stop its transmission (see article). If that proves true, the drugs could achieve much of what a vaccine would. The question for the world will no longer be whether it can wipe out the plague, but whether it is prepared to pay the price. 最近一项研究令人充满希望。此项研究表明,抗艾药物也可能阻止了艾滋病的传播。如果此项 研究可信的话,这些药物将达到疫苗的大多效果。全球面临的问题也将不再是艾滋病能否得以 根除,而是人们是否做好了支付药价的准备。 The appliance of science 科学运用 If AIDS is defeated, it will be thanks to an alliance of science, activism and altruism. The science has come from the world’s pharmaceutical companies, which leapt on the problem. In 1996 a batch of similar drugs, all of them inhibiting the activity of one of the AIDS virus’s crucial enzymes, appeared almost simultaneously. The effect was miraculous, if you (or your government) could afford the $15,000 a year that those drugs cost when they first came on the market.

如果艾滋病被攻克,这将归功于科学,行动主义和利他主义三者的结合。科学的贡献在于全球 制药公司对艾滋病疫情采取了行动。1996 年,一批抑制艾滋病关键酶活动的类似药品几乎同时 问世。抗艾药品首次进入市场的价格是每年 1.5 万美元,如果患者(或政府)能承担得起医药 费,治疗效果将显得不可思议。 Much of the activism came from rich-world gays. Having badgered drug companies into creating the new medicines, the activists bullied them into dropping the price. That would have happened anyway, but activism made it happen faster. 行动主义多数要归功于富国男同性恋者的努力。行动主义者首先闹着要求制药公司研发新药, 然后还迫使它们降低药价。此举迟早将会发生,但行动主义促使这一进程来得更快。 The altruism was aroused as it became clear by the mid-1990s that AIDS was not just a rich-world disease. Three-quarters of those affected were—and still are—in Africa. Unlike most infections, which strike children and the elderly, AIDS hits the most productive members of society: businessmen, civil servants, engineers, teachers, doctors, nurses. Thanks to an enormous effort by Western philanthropists and some politicians (this is one area where even the left should give credit to George Bush junior), a series of programmes has brought drugs to those infected. 90 年代中期,艾滋病不仅仅只是富国疾病的观念越显清晰明了,这激起了利他主义的产生。3/4 的艾滋病感染者曾在,并现仍在非洲。同针对儿童和老人的大多数传染病所不同的是,艾滋病 的传染对象是社会上最富生产力的人员:商人,公务员,工程师,教师,医生,护士。由于西 方慈善家和一些政客(在此方面,就是左派也应当给予小布什应嘉奖)作出的巨大努力,他们 实施的一系列行动方案使得感染者获取了抗艾药物。 The result is patchy. Not enough people—some 6.6m of the 16m who would most quickly benefit— are getting the drugs. And the pills are not a cure. Stop taking them, and the virus bounces back. But it is a huge step forward from ten years ago. 然而,收效并不均匀。但是能够获得到抗艾药物的患者人数还不足够多。在本应可最早受益的 1600 万感染者中,才约 600 万人获得了药物。而这些药物还不能根治艾滋病。药物不服,病毒 反复。但同十年前相比,这已是一个巨大进步。 What can science offer now? A few people’s immune systems control the disease naturally (which suggests a vaccine might be possible) and antibodies have been discovered that neutralise the virus (and might thus form the basis of AIDS-clearing drugs). But a cure still seems a long way off. Prevention is, for the moment, the better bet. 科学现在可以带来什么?人类自身的免疫系统几乎是无法抵抗艾滋病的(而这表明疫苗注射则 是有可能的) ,而中和艾滋病病毒的抗体(并有可能是构成治愈艾滋病药物的基础)已被发现。 但治愈艾滋病药物仍似乎依然有很长的路要走。就目前而言,预防是最好的选择。 There are various ways to stop people getting the disease in the first place. Nagging them to use condoms and to sleep around less does have some effect. Circumcision helps to protect men. A vaginal microbicide (none exists, but at least one trial has gone well) could protect women. The new hope centres on the idea of combining treatment with prevention. 从根本上而言,防止感染患艾滋病的方法有很多。反复宣传使用避孕套和不搞多性关系确实有 一定的效果。包皮环切有助于保护男士。阴道杀菌剂(尽管尚不存在,但至少有一项关于此的 试验进展得很顺利)可以保护妇女。治疗同预防相结合的理念构筑了新的希望。 A question of money 金钱问题

In the early days scientists were often attacked by activists for being more concerned with trying to prevent the epidemic spreading than treating the affected. Now it seems that treatment and prevention will come in the same pill. If you can stop the virus reproducing in someone’ body, you not only save s his life, you also reduce the number of viruses for him to pass on. Get enough people on drugs and it would be like vaccinating them: the chain of transmission would be broken. 早期,活动家往往攻击科学家,指责他们竭力在防止艾滋病疫情的蔓延,而非治疗艾滋病患者。 现在看来,治疗和预防具备相同的药效。如果病毒在人体内繁殖可得到阻止,患者的生命不仅 可以得到拯救,而且病毒传播的数量还可降低。确保足够多的患者获得到药品,这将会起到注 射疫苗的类似效果:艾滋病传播链将会被打破。 That is a huge task. It is not just a matter of bringing in those who should already be on the drugs (the 16m who show symptoms or whose immune systems are critically weak). To prevent transmission, treatment would in theory need to be expanded to all the 34m people infected with the disease. That would mean more effective screening (which is planned already), and also a willingness by those without the symptoms to be treated. That willingness might be there, though, if it would protect people’s uninfected lovers. 但这是一项艰巨的任务。这不仅仅是一个向艾滋病患者(有 1600 万患者表现出艾滋病症状或自 身免疫系统非常脆弱)提供药品的问题。理论上而言,为阻止艾滋病传播,治疗需要将范围扩 展到所有 3400 万艾滋病感染者。这将意味着要对是否患有艾滋病的人群进行更为有效的检查 (已在构想当中) ,尚未出现艾滋病症状的人们也愿意接受治疗。如果此举可以保护到未受到艾 滋病传染的爱人,人们理应自愿接受配合。 Such a programme would take years and also cost a lot of money. About $16 billion a year is spent on AIDS in poor and middle-income countries. Half is generated locally and half is foreign aid. A report in this week’ Lancet suggests a carefully crafted mixture of approaches that does not involve treating s all those without symptoms would bring great benefit for not much more than this—a peak of $22 billion in 2015, and a fall thereafter. Moreover, most of the extra spending would be offset by savings on the treatment of those who would have been infected, but were not—some 12m people, if the boffins have done their sums right. At $500 per person per year, the benefits would far outweigh the costs in purely economic terms; though donors will need to compare the gain from spending more on knocking out AIDS against other worthy causes, such as eliminating malaria (see article). 此项方案将需要花费数年时间,也将耗费大量金钱。在贫穷和中等收入国家,抗击艾滋病需要 约 160 亿美元。这笔款项一半需要本国解决,另一半需要外国援助。本周,英国《柳叶刀》医 学杂志提出,一种集各种疗法的精心组合(不含治疗那些尚未出现艾滋病症状人群的费用)在 全球总开支低于 2015 年 220 亿美元峰值的前提下将会给广大患者带来巨大收益, 随后开支将有 所下降。如果科研人员估算准确的话,用在那些本来可能会被感染,但实际上并受到感染 “患 者” (约有 1200 万人)的治疗费用将会节省下来,大多数额外开支将同这笔节省费用抵消。每 位患者每年花费 500 美金,这所获取的收益将远远超过经济单方面的投资,尽管同诸如消除疟 疾的有价值项目相比,捐助者需要考虑在抗击艾滋病方面做出更多投资所获取的收益。 For the moment, the struggle is to stop some rich countries giving less. The Netherlands and Spain are cutting their contributions to the Global Fund, one of the two main distributors of the life-saving drugs (the other is Mr Bush’s brainchild, PEPFAR), and Italy has stopped paying altogether. 目前,所需要做努力的是阻止一些富裕国家将援助资金减少。荷兰和西班牙都在向全球基金 (Global Fund)削减两国的援助资金数目。全球基金是艾滋病救命药物的两大主要分销商(另 一主要分销商是小布什总统设立的美国总统救助艾滋病应急计划 PEPFAR)之一,而意大利则 完全停止资助。 On June 8th the United Nations meets to discuss what to do next. Those who see the UN as a mere talking-shop should remember that its first meeting on AIDS launched the Global Fund. It is still a

long haul. But AIDS can be beaten. A plague that 30 years ago was blamed on man’s iniquity has ended up showing him in a better, more inventive and generous light. 6 月 8 日,联合国举行会议,讨论下一步该怎么做。那些视联合国仅为一个聊天室的人们应不 会忘记,联合国在讨论艾滋病的首次会议上启动了全球基金组织。尽管路仍漫漫,但艾滋病是 可被攻克的。一场在 30 年前被归咎于是人类罪恶的瘟疫现迎来了一道更加美好,较为创新和极 为无私的灿烂光芒。 http://ecocn.org/thread-49665-1-1.html 译者:captain21 [2011.06.02]Wanted: chief firefighter 招募首席消防员 What the front-runner to lead the IMF could learn from the other candidates IMF 领导人选战领先者可以从对手身上学到些什么 Jun 2nd 2011 | from the print edition CHRISTINE LAGARDE may be ahead by several lengths in the race to lead the IMF. But even if she wins as easily as now seems likely, the French finance minister would do well to consider the views of three of her rivals, who are central bankers as well as practitioners of the dismal science: Stanley Fischer of Israel, Agustín Carstens of Mexico and Grigori Marchenko of Kazakhstan. Political prowess is not to be sniffed at, nor is Ms Lagarde’s record as a lawyer, but much of the firefighting job of the IMF involves tricky monetary and economic analysis. 在 IMF 总裁之争中,克里斯汀?拉加德(Christine Lagarde)可能已领先了数个身位。不过,即 使这位法国财长能够如人们所预料那样轻松赢得这一职位,她也应该好好考虑三位竞争对手的 观点:色列的斯坦利?费希尔(Stanley Fischer) 、墨西哥的奥古斯丁?卡尔腾斯 (Agustin Carstens) 以及哈萨克斯坦的格里高利?马尔琴科(Grigori Marchenko) ,这三位都是央行行长,在这一沉 闷科学中浸淫多年。拉加德固然拥有政治技巧和律师经验,但 IMF 的职责是救火,需要繁琐的 货币和经济分析。 Whoever prevails will inherit an outfit that has pledged 79 billion ($114 billion)—about two-thirds of its total lending commitments—to three euro-area countries that are struggling to repay their obligations and revive their economies without the freedom to devalue their currencies. Many economists think Greece, and perhaps Ireland and Portugal, will have to write down their debts. But Mr Fischer, who has reportedly been considering a bid for the job, said in 2002 that economists are far more willing for a country to default than the country’s policymakers themselves. A number-two at the IMF between 1994 and 2001, he added that “it is the policymakers who will face the political consequences.” 不管谁获胜,都将接手一个 790 亿欧元(1140 亿美元)的贷款承诺,相当于总贷款承诺的三分 之二,对象是正在债务负担中苦苦挣扎同时又忙于在无法贬值货币的情况下实现经济复苏的三 个欧元区国家。许多经济学家认为,希腊——或许还有爱尔兰和葡萄牙——将不得不减记债务。 据称在考虑竞选该职位的费希尔 2002 年时曾说, 经济学家接受一国违约要比该国政客更容易得 多。这位 1994—2001 年间的 IMF 二把手还说: “需要面对政治后果的是政客。 ” Mr Fischer believes policymakers are “right to go far to avoid default”. But how far is too far? In January 2001 the IMF gave Argentina a big “last chance” loan to help it calm its creditors. It failed. In August 2001 they gave the country a second last chance. It also failed. Mr Fischer believed the August loan had a “non-negligible” chance of success—one worth taking to avoid the catastrophe that followed. But others disagree. Michael Mussa, a former research director at the IMF, says the August loan was “the greatest mistake the fund made in my ten years there.” 费希尔认为,政客“大步向前以避免违约无可非议” 。但什么样的步子才算过大?2001 年 1 月, IMF 给了阿根廷一笔巨额“最后机会”贷款,帮助其抚慰债权人。结果以失败告终。2001 年 8 月,IMF 又给了阿根廷第二次最后机会。结果再次以失败告终。费希尔认为 8 月的贷款有“不

小”的成功机会——大可藉此避免随后的崩盘。但其他人并不赞同。前 IMF 研究主管迈克尔? 马萨(Michael Mussa)说,8 月份得贷款是“我的十年 IMF 生涯中所看到的最大错误。 ” Mr Carstens, an openly declared candidate, knows first-hand what it means to restructure a country’s debts. In 1990 Mexico swapped unpayable bank debt for so-called Brady bonds, worth about 35% less. Mr Carstens helped negotiate the deal. Like Mr Fischer, he believes such a restructuring should be “a very last resort”. Nonetheless, he thinks the 7-8 years of reschedulings, roll-overs and bail-outs that preceded Mexico’s final Brady deal was too long for the country to wait. A better case to study, he suggests, is Uruguay’s bond renegotiation in 2003, which was orderly, voluntary and took less than two months. It was not an easy way out: restructuring works only if accompanied by tough reforms to increase the country’s ability to repay, Mr Carstens says. 公开宣布竞选的卡尔腾斯拥有关于“重组一国债务意味着什么”这一问题的第一手经验。1990 年,墨西哥用无法偿还的银行债务换取价值缩水了 35%的布雷迪(Brady)债券,卡尔腾斯是这 笔交易的谈判者之一。与费希尔一样,他认为应该把类似的重组视为“最后机会” 。尽管如此, 他认为,墨西哥在最终接受布雷迪债券之前经历了 7—8 年的债务重排、展期和援助,这实在是 太长了。他指出,更好的参考案例是 2003 年乌拉圭债券谈判,这场以自愿为基础的谈判,两个 月就有了结果。但这这条路并不好走:只有在进行了增加一国偿付能力的改革闯关之后,重组 才能见效,卡尔腾斯说。 One of the reasons Europe’ policymakers worry about default is its impact on the banks that hold the s debt. In the Asian financial crisis the IMF pushed governments to clean up their banking systems sooner rather than later. The fund’s critics say this made the recession worse. Repairs take time. But that is no reason for delay, Mr Fischer has argued, citing the instructions that Hubert Lyautey, a French general, gave to his gardener: if a tree takes 150 years to mature, that’s all the more reason to plant it as soon as possible. 欧洲政客为何要担心违约?原因之一是这会对持有这些债务的银行形成重大冲击。在亚洲金融 危机中,IMF 敦促政府尽快清理银行体系,以做亡羊补牢之举。IMF 的批评者指出,这使得衰 退雪上加霜。修复需要时间。但费希尔曾指出,这并不是拖延的理由。他引用法国将军利奥泰 (Hubert Lyautey)对其园丁的话说:如果一棵树要 150 年才能成熟,那就越发要尽早将它种下 去。 No one has pruned the financial garden as aggressively as Mr Marchenko, the candidate backed by Russia. After Kazakhstan won its independence in 1991, financial institutions mushroomed, as state-owned enterprises set up banks to get cheap central-bank credit. From 1994 onwards, the regulators weeded out scores of banks. Anders Aslund of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, DC, says that Mr Marchenko “prides himself on having closed 80 banks” . He is “as tough as they come”. 说到修理金融体系,没有比俄罗斯所支持的候选人马尔琴科更激进的了。1991 年哈萨克斯坦独 立后,随着国有企业获得廉价的央行信贷而纷纷设立银行,金融机构如雨后春笋般冒了出来。 从 1994 年开始,监管者关闭了大批银行。华盛顿彼得森国际经济学研究所的阿斯伦德(Anders Aslund)说, “坚韧不拔”的马尔琴科“以关闭了 80 家银行而自豪。。 ” What about the candidates’ views on other issues facing the fund? In the late 1990s emerging economies suffered from capital outflows and plunging currencies. Today they fret about excessive inflows and strengthening currencies. Even after the Asian financial crisis Mr Fischer still believed that “orderly” capital-account liberalisation should be made one of the IMF’ core purposes. But he s recognises that controls on inflows, though inelegant, may be necessary at times. Indeed in January he himself imposed a reserve requirement on Israeli banks entering into foreign-exchange derivative transactions with non-residents.

各位候选人在 IMF 所面临的其他问题上立场如何呢?20 世纪 90 年代末,新兴经济体经历了资 本外逃和货币大幅贬值。如今,令它们烦恼的是资本流入和货币升值。即使在亚洲金融危机后, 费希尔依然认为“有序”的资本账户自由化应该是 IMF 的核心目标之一。但他也认为,资本流 入管制虽然不太光彩,但有时也不得不为。事实上,他本人在 1 月份的时候就曾下令以色列银 行对与非居民进行的外汇衍生品交易实行资本储备制度。 Burning issues 当务之急 In April the IMF released a “framework” to guide countries’ thinking on such measures. Mr Carstens regrets it was not “precise” in distinguishing between capital flows prompted by external events and inflows attracted by a country’ own brighter prospects. Modest controls may be legitimate s in the first case, but not the second, he says. 4 月,IMF 公布了指导各国考虑这些措施的“框架” 。拉加德很遗憾这一“框架”在识别由外部 事件所造成的资本流入和由一国自身光明前景所吸引的资本流入方面不够“精确” 。她说,对于 前者,可以采取适当的管制,但后者则否。 One external factor influencing capital movements may be American monetary policy. The Fed’s aggressive easing has depressed yields, encouraging capital to flow elsewhere. In principle, countries can insulate themselves from the Fed’s actions by allowing their currencies to float upwards against the dollar. But in practice, countries are reluctant to do so, fearful that an excessively strong currency will hurt their exporters. 影响资本流动的一大外部因素可能是美国货币政策。美联储激进的宽松政策压低了收益率,促 使资本流向别处。原则上,一国可以通过允许本币对美元上浮来使自己免受美联储动作的影响。 但在实践中,各国都不愿意这样做,担心货币过度强势会影响出口。 Reforming an international monetary system that relies so heavily on the greenback is one of the ambitions of Ms Lagarde’s government, which now chairs the G20 group of big economies. The French have suggested a greater role for the IMF’s own synthetic reserve asset, the Special Drawing Right (SDR). The value of the SDR is based on a basket of currencies (the dollar, euro, yen and pound) that might expand one day to include the yuan. 改革严重依赖美元的国际货币体系是拉加德祖国——目前是 G20 经济大国集团的主席国——的 野心之一。这位法国人已建提出要让 IMF 自身的综合储备资产——特别提款权(SDR)扮演更 重要的角色。SDR 的价值基础是一篮子货币(美元、欧元、日元和英镑) ,有朝一日可能会将 人民币也纳入其中。 Does the SDR have a role to play in rebalancing the world economy? “The quick answer is no,” says Mr Carstens. It is, after all, only a bundle of national currencies—no more than the sum of its parts. The longer answer, he says, is that it might have some indirect benefits. If the Chinese want the yuan included in the SDR, they will probably have to liberalise their capital account first. That would be welcome in itself—as a shrewd lawyer would no doubt be as quick to point out as a sharp economist. SDR 能够在实现世界经济再平衡方面起作用吗?“短期内不能, ”卡尔腾斯说。说到底,SDR 无非是一个由国家货币组成的货币束,是其组成部分的加和而已。卡尔腾斯认为,从长期看也 许会有一些间接益处。 如果中国希望让人民币进入 SDR, 它可能被迫首先让其资本账户自由化。 这件事本身就值得欢迎,精明的律师毫无疑问可以像犀利的经济学家那样立刻意识到这一点。 http://ecocn.org/thread-49633-1-1.html 译者:majer [2011.06.02]Japan: The great wave 滔天巨浪 A look at how Japan views the sea—and itself 日本之自身观&海洋观解读

Jun 2nd 2011 | from the print edition AT AROUND the age of 70, Katsushika Hokusai, still bounding with artistic energy, created “Thirty-six Views of Mount Fuji”, a series of ukiyo-e, or woodblock prints. His most famous, since reproduced on everything from Tintin books to tea cups, is “Beneath the Wave off Kanagawa”, painted around 1830. 葛饰北斋古稀之年的时候,艺术细胞仍然丝毫未减,创作了《富士山三十六景》系列浮世绘(也 叫做木板水印画) 。而他最有名的作品莫过于 1830 年前后绘制的《神奈川冲浪图》了,从丁丁 书到茶杯上都可见这部幅巨作的影子。 Most Westerners, when viewing it, focus on the wave itself, which towers over Mount Fuji in a show of almost implacable force, all the more terrifying considering the three fragile boats under it. Neil MacGregor, director of the British Museum, wrote in “A History of the World in 100 Objects” that the picture reflected frightened fishermen and an insecure, cloistered Japan about to be forced by American gunboats into the modern world. But Japanese art critics differ—and they have a point. In the picture the boatmen look more serene than fearful, as their vessels slice through the waves. Their stillness in the face of danger is all the more poignant in Japan, as they have a job to do. They are racing to deliver fresh fish to market, and yet they remain, as far as many Japanese see it, in delicate balance with nature. 面对这幅画,大多数西方人关注的都是巨浪本身,巨大的浪高高地盖过富士山脉,显示出近乎 无法抵挡的威力,再想想三艘岌岌可危的小船还翻滚在巨浪之下,那就更加令人心惊胆战了。 大英博物馆主任麦克格瑞格在《透过一百物看世界史》中如是写道:这幅画展现了在美国炮舰 的逼迫下,受到惊吓的日本渔民连同有风雨飘摇又与世隔绝的日本国一起被迫走向现代化。但 是日本艺术评论家对此提出了不同的看法,他们也有自己的道理。图画中,小船劈波斩浪之时, 渔民表现出的平静大于恐慌。因为还有工作要做,所以面对危险,渔民沉着冷静,而这一情况 出现在日本就更是令人心酸了。渔民们虽争先恐后地将鲜鱼运到市场,却也还是一直与自然保 持着一种微妙的平衡(至少在许多日本人看来是如此) Since the March 11th tsunami, once again Japan is examining itself through the prism of a great wave. What it sees can at first strike an outsider as oddly romantic. Talk to mayors of port cities up and down the stricken north-eastern coast of Honshu, Japan’s main island, and they almost invariably describe the mighty ocean as a friend and source of hope—even though some lost loved ones, homes and businesses in the onslaught. 3 月 11 日海啸来袭,日本又一次透过巨浪这把棱镜审视自己。然而,透过棱镜看到情景,起初 还真是令外人匪夷所思,因为人们发现日本人对大海怀有一种情结。本州岛是日本内陆最大的 岛屿,本州岛的东北沿海地区受到地震海啸侵袭,那里分布着一些港口城市,若同那些城市的 市长聊聊,你就会发现,他们总是将浩瀚的海洋看作自己的朋友,看作希望的源泉(虽然一些 人在灾难中失去了亲人,住房以及生计) 。 In Japan at large some people (though woefully few national politicians) feel that the destruction wrought by nature has revived a sense of purpose; some have even taken it as a cue to get married and procreate. During two decades of constipated economics and politics, the deadening sense grew that Japan had lost its appetite for risk, whether entrepreneurial derring-do or even, in the context of a population that had begun to shrink, the risk of picking the wrong mate. But with a disaster on a biblical scale in March, the Japanese bowed to no one. Some fishermen, faced with 40-foot (12-metre) waves, took to their boats and headed straight over them: echoes of Hokusai’s deliverymen. Granted, that was the best way to save their boats. But how refreshing if it were to reflect a reawakened sense of courage in the country as a whole. 总的来说,一些日本人认为,由于自然灾难, “活着是为了什么”这个问题重新又浮上了人们的 心头(虽然可惜的是,少有政客有如此想法) 。有些人甚至将自然灾难看作是结婚生子的一个暗

示。二十年来,日本的经济政治陷于萧条状态,本已逐渐消逝的“生存目的观念”重又抬头, 以至于日本人已经不那么热衷冒险了,企业家放弃了蛮勇,人们择偶也不再轻率(即使是在如 今人口开始下滑的大背景下,人们也不愿意冒嫁 or 娶错人的风险) 。但是面对史无前例惨烈的 自然灾难,日本人却丝毫没有屈服。面对 40 英尺(12 米)高的巨浪,还是有渔民跳上自己的 渔船,迎着巨浪而上,与葛饰北斋画笔下的运货人毫无二致。这倒算是保护自己渔船最好的办 法了吧。但是若是能唤起日本全民心中的勇气,那该是有多振奋人心啊! If it does, where better to look than by the sea, chief pillar of national identity? Japan, though small in surface area, stretches far. To go from the northernmost tip of the Japanese archipelago to its farthest-flung southern rock is to travel from Norway’s North Cape to Rome. The surrounding seas have long been regarded as Japan’s protective armour, or sometimes its womb. (Until 1945 Japan had never been occupied by an enemy.) Moreover, the oceans are a bountiful source of the nation’s food. 如若真要唤起大和民族的勇气,作为支撑民族认同感最重要的支柱,大海首当其冲最有望达成 此愿。日本的表面面积虽然不大,但是却延伸到很远。从日本列岛最北端到日本领土最南端的 距离,相当于从挪威北角到罗马的距离那么远。日本人一直将环绕国土的大海看作是自己的铠 甲,有时甚至将她看作是自己的发源地。直到 1945 年,日本从未受到过外敌入侵。并且,海洋 也为大和民族供给了丰富的食材。 Yet the seas, and what Japan does with them, are also the main sources of friction with the outside world. The trouble starts with the names: the Sea of Japan is the East Sea to South Korea, and the East Sea of Korea to Pyongyang. Outlying islands are no less contentious, largely thanks to the memories of pre-1945 Japanese aggression that they stir up. So Dokdo, occupied by South Korea, is claimed by Japan, which calls it Takeshima. (Koreans denigrate the claim, pointing out that the island has no take, or bamboo, at all.) Island disputes with China and Russia also fester. And then comes whaling and dolphin-slaying, where the cultural gap with much of the Western world appears at its widest. The Oshika peninsula, devastated by the tsunami, welcomes visitors by boasting of its two main industries, whaling and nuclear power. No wonder that even before the Fukushima nuclear crisis, its stunning scenery was not on most foreign tourist itineraries. 然而,海洋连同日本人利用海洋的所作所为却沦为了大和民族与外界摩擦的一个焦点。麻烦始 于名字:韩国人把日本海称作是自己的东海,而朝鲜又将其视为自己的朝鲜东海。截止到 1945 年为止,日本的侵略扩张更是搅起了势头毫不逊色的离岛之争。日本发表声明称;韩属多克多 岛为日本领土,并将其称为竹岛,韩国人反对此项声明,同时指出此岛根本就没有竹子。日本 同中国及俄罗斯的领土纷争也是纷纷扰扰,愈演愈烈。而正当这个时候,捕杀鲸鱼以及刺杀海 豚的丑闻又被爆出, 日本同多数西方国家的文化鸿沟也由此到了极限状态。 日本杜鹿郡半岛 (后 遭海啸洗劫) ,大大吹嘘其捕鲸以及核能两大产业以招徕游客。因此即便福岛尚未遭受核危机之 时,那里美丽的景色就不受多数外国游客的待见,也就不足为怪了。 Now that Japan faces the task of rebuilding its coastal communities, can it cast its relationship with the sea in a new light? That is the hope of some who want Tohoku, Honshu’s north-eastern region, to become a blueprint for a more harmonious balance between man and nature—once the Fukushima nuclear plant stops pouring radioactive bilge into the ocean. Shigeru Sugawara, mayor of semi-destroyed Kesennuma, is one of them. Since the tsunami, he has printed new business cards that say: “Kesennuma is immortal as long as there is the sea.” But he wants the relationship to change: a smaller deep-sea fishing industry, for example, and more “slow-life” industries, such as tourism, organic food and day-boat fishing. 既然日本准备重建沿海地区,那么能否用一个新的视角来处理同海洋的关系呢?有人希望福岛 核电站不再向海洋排放辐射性废水之后,本州岛东北部地区能够成为“天人合一” (人和自然更 加和谐相处)的蓝图,这些人自然是盼望新视角出现。气仙沼市市长菅原就是这群人中的一个 (仙台市惨遭天灾侵袭) 。自海啸席卷之后,他就为自己打造了新名片,上书: “只要大海还在,

仙台就永远不死” 。但同时他也希望人与大海的关系能够有所改变,比方说,打造较小规模的深 海渔业,打造更多诸如旅游业,有机食品业,船钓渔业等慢节拍生活的休闲产业项目。 The prefectural governor, Yoshihiro Murai, takes a somewhat different tack. He is trying to use the disaster to bypass co-operatives, whose priority rights over fishing along the coast, he claims, often put off private enterprise. Intriguingly, his calls for deregulation have struck a chord even in ancient fishing communities whose members are as old as Hokusai was when he created his masterwork. In Momonoura, an oyster-farming village, fishermen whose families have harvested the sea for centuries realise that, tsunami or not, their community is dying out, since young men and women do not want to step into their grandfathers’ rubber boots. Private capital might not only buy new boats, but give offspring jobs close to home. Another village has set up an enterprising share scheme to finance new oyster beds and skiffs to work them. 地方长官鹊鸟略微改变了策略,走上了另一条路。日本的渔业合作团体在沿海渔业上享有优先 权,但是用鹊鸟的话来说这种优先权经常妨碍到私营企业的发展,所以鹊鸟打算利用这次天灾 打破合作社的垄断(绕道渔业合作社而行) 。有意思的是,鹊鸟倡导的“放松渔业管制” ,甚至 博得古老渔业社区的共鸣,这些社区的成员同当年创作《巨浪下的神户川》时的葛饰北斋年龄 相仿。桃浦是一个牡蛎养殖村,那里世代靠打渔为生的渔民意识到,就算没有海啸侵袭,他们 的社区也会逐渐走向消亡,因为年轻人都不再愿意子承父业。私人资产可能就不再只是用于添 置新船了,而也用来为子孙在家附近找份工作。另一个村子则设立了颇具胆识的企业股份计划, 用来集资开辟新的牡蛎养殖场,以及购买用于劳作的船只。 Japan’s most liquid bank 日本的提现银行 Yet for all the talk of change, many also know that the co-operative style of organisation has done a service to Japan’ local waters by saving them from greater overfishing. Few now take for granted the s abundance of the area’s fish, even though they live by one of the world’s richest fishing grounds, where Pacific currents meet. Some still call the ocean a bank, though no longer in the sense of limitless cash. They know the more they take out, the less is left. Such people are, like Hokusai, wise in their old age. Will they, like him, dare to embark on something new? 虽然人们大谈特谈要改变现状,但是许多人心里也清楚,对于日本地区海域来说,合作社的组 织方式还是有其贡献的,使日本免于深陷过度捕捞的泥沼。日本渔场是世界上最富饶的渔场之 一(这里是太平洋洋流交汇的地方) ,即便是生活在渔场附近,也很少再有人把这丰富的渔业资 源看作是理所当然了。如今有人还是将海洋看作是银行,但是早已不再视其为取之不竭的现金 宝库了。他们心里清楚,索取的越多,所剩也就越少。跟葛饰北斋无异,他们这些人年老之时 越发智慧通晓。那么他们会同葛饰北斋那样勇于开创新事物麽? http://ecocn.org/thread-49601-1-1.html 译者:Mery 裙子 [2011.06.02]The history of AIDS: Heroes and villains 功臣与恶棍 The story of AIDS involves many larger-than-life characters, good and bad 艾滋病的历史故事涉及许多非凡的人物, 有正角, 也有反角 Jun 2nd 2011 | from the print edition ANNIVERSARIES are times for reflection, and this one should be no exception, for the 30-year history of AIDS is a mirror in which humanity can examine itself. From questionable scientists to philanthropic billionaires, people’s actions against AIDS, and reactions to it, have shown up the best and worst that humans have to offer. 周年纪念日业已成为一种反思传统,具有 30 年历史的艾滋病作为人类反求诸己的明镜, (艾滋 病 30 周年)不应被当做例外(而忽略) 。从受人质疑的科学家,到那群心怀慈悲的亿万富豪, 这些人类与艾滋病抗争的行动以及对它的回应,都已将人类本性所具有的至善和至恶毫无保留 的昭示人间。

Such dualism was there from the beginning, in the question of who discovered the AIDS-causing virus. There were two claimants. One, Robert Gallo, is American. The other, Luc Montagnier, is French. Dr Gallo called his discovery HTLV-3. Dr Montagnier called his LAV. They were in fact the same thing. It turned out, however, that Dr Gallo’ virus had come from Dr Montagnier’ laboratory. It was never s s conclusively proved how, though a contaminated sample may have been to blame. And Dr Gallo was exonerated of any wrongdoing by an official investigation and is universally recognised to have done important work on AIDS. But only Dr Montagnier won the Nobel prize—eloquent testimony to some people’s opinion of the whole affair. 这种二元论从一开始就存在,首先是关于谁发现了引起艾滋病的病毒.有 2 位自称(是病毒发现 者) 。其中一位是美国人罗伯特?加洛。另一位是法国人吕克?蒙塔尼。 加洛博士将他发现的病 毒命名为 HTLV-3。蒙塔尼博士则将他的命名为 LAV。事实上两者指的是一样的物质。可是后 来查明,加洛博士(发现)的病毒 系来自 蒙塔尼博士的实验室。 不过这个病毒是怎么会到那 里的, 却一直没有真凭实据, 只有一个被污染过的实验样本也许可能是肇事的祸端。 事后所 作的一项正式调查宣布加洛博士没有不端的行为,人们也公认他对艾滋病的研究做出了重大贡 献。但是,只有蒙塔尼博士一人终获诺贝尔奖——有一部分人对整个事件另有看法,只有一人 获奖就雄辩地证明他们看法正确。 Another source of conflict was whether HIV, as the virus eventually came to be known, was truly the cause of AIDS. At the beginning of the epidemic, that might have been debatable. Perhaps HIV was merely a passenger that took advantage of an immune system weakened by another cause? One once-respected scientist, Peter Duesberg, who did early research on viral causes of cancer, would not drop the idea. He insisted—and still insists—that the weakening of the immune system characteristic of AIDS is caused by drug-taking (he blames both recreational drugs and AZT, one of the early anti-AIDS drugs), and that HIV is, indeed, a passenger. 另一个争议的焦点是,最终被广为人知的 HIV 病毒是否是艾滋病的真正根源。在流行病(被发 现)之初,这个问题存在很大的争论。或许 HIV 只是一个过客病毒。 (不引起疾病) ,这个过客 利用了免疫系统因其他因子而起的缺陷?一位历受尊敬的科学家皮特?杜博格, 这位研究病毒性 癌症的先驱未曾抛弃这种猜想。他主张——并且一直坚持认为——对艾滋病的免疫系统特征缺 陷是由吸毒引发的(他指责娱乐性毒品和一种早期抗艾滋病药物 AZT) ,和 HIV 是一个过客, 确实是如此。 This theory would not have mattered much except that Thabo Mbeki, a former president of South Africa, latched on to it. Since South Africa has the world’s largest number of AIDS cases, and one of its highest infection rates, this was bad news, as was Mr Mbeki’s health minister, Manto Tshabalala-Msimang, who was appointed mainly because she agreed with him, and recommended beetroot and garlic as treatment for the disease. Only with the election of Jacob Zuma, who has himself been publicly tested for HIV (he did not have it), did South Africa return to sensible anti-AIDS policies. 这个理论一直以来都被视为无足轻重,直至南非前总统姆贝基对它感兴趣。因为南非是世界上 艾滋病人数最多也是感染率最高的国家。作为姆贝基的卫生部长曼托查巴拉拉-姆西曼被任命, 主要是因为赞同姆贝基的政见,这位卫生部长推荐用甜菜根和大蒜治疗(艾滋病)这种疾病, 这对于南非来说可是雪上加霜的坏消息。只有到

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